Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Rays @ Yankees 5/8/12

UPDATE:

Raul Ibanez hits a 2 run home run with two strikes and two outs to strike first in this pitchers duel. It is raining like crazy and Nova, with that strike out, makes the game OFFICIAL!

Curtis, Im Not A Home Run Hitter, Granderson hit his 10th home run to give the Yanks a 3-0 lead.

Nova surrended a home run to Jose Molina to allow his first run in the 6th to make it 3-1 Yanks. Nova through 6 IP with just 1 ER.


Luke Scott with a solo homer to make it 3-2. Nova, with a ton of help from Swisher defensively , gets out of big trouble in the 7th.


Ibanez hits his 2nd homer of the game in the bottom of the 7th to give the Yankees some insurance, 4-2 Yanks. 


Mark Teixeira added an rbi double to make it 5-3 and David Robertson, after working his way into trouble, recorded his first save of the season.


Yankees win 5-3
All I Wanna Do Is Win!


Tonight the Yankees will hos the Rays in game 1 of a three game set at the Stadium. Tonight for the Yankees on the mound is Ivan Nova who lost his last start for the first time in eleven months. On the mound for the shifting Rays is James Shields who bolsters a perfect 5-0 record.

There is a lot of rain in the forecast tonight and some nasty clouds above the stadium right now so we will see if the Yanks can get this one in or not.

Here is tonight's lineup:

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Mark Teixeira 1B
Nick Swisher RF
Raul Ibanez DH
Russell Martin C
Eduardo Nunez LF 




Andy Pettitte To Start Sunday



For the Yankees!! Sunday at home in the Bronx vs. the Seattle Mariners.  No word on who will be coming out of the rotation but if I had to guess it will be David Phelps, with Cody Epply going down to AAA Empire State Yankees.

Understand Sabermetrics : Slugging Percentage (SLG)

Slugging percentage is another one of those "oldie but a goodie" kind of SABR stats because it seems like it has been around forever, and is still commonly used. SLG is obviously used to measure power hitters and their ability to get extra base hits and home runs.


The highest single season SLG% was recorded in 2001 when Barry Bonds posted an .863 SLG%. The highest career SLG% is Babe Ruth's mark of .690. The highest possible SLG% you can have is 4.000, although you would have to hit a grand slam in your ONLY MLB at bat to achieve this.


Here is how you calculate SLG % :
Slugging percentage (SLG) = (1B) + (2B X 2) + (3B X 3) + (HR X 4) / ABs

To simplify the formula all you have to do is take the number of total bases and divide it by the number of at bats for the player.


Let's look at Curtis Granderson's 2011 season and specifically his SLG% since he led the team last year in home runs. Granderson's total bases stat equaled 322 in 583 at bats. If you divide 322 by 583 you get Granderson's 2011 SLG % of .552, a very respectable number. 


Work That Bullpen!

"Man! This thing has been ringing off the hook!"

After learning the fate of Mariano Rivera, as well as thinking about who will be knocked out of the starting rotation once Andy Pettitte returns, the bullpen has been on my mind. So when I surfed over to SI.com yesterday, and looked their current MLB Power Rankings, I couldn't help but focus on the part about bullpen use. Here is what they had to say, after placing the Yankees 6th...
The Yankees have just one starting pitcher with an FIP under 4.00, and the league average FIP is 4.07. They need better starting pitching, especially with closer Mariano Rivera out for the year. The Yankees are set up well to be able to handle Rivera's loss in the bullpen, as David Robertson, Rafael Soriano and Cory Wade have all pitched very well, but the starters will need to pitch better to limit the innings their relief pitchers are forced to throw. Currently, Yankee relief pitchers have thrown the fourth-most innings in the AL at 93 1/3.
I was happy with that ranking, especially considering the team is currently 4th in the AL East, and has given up more runs than all but three AL teams. The offense has been frustrating at times, but they have scored 141 runs, the 3rd highest total in the younger league. Yet, just like they said in that excerpt from SI.com, it's the Yankee starters that are really causing the most problems for the team. Not only are they at fault for the team needing to crawl out of early holes, but they are taxing the bullpen.

At the time I started thinking about Joe Girardi, and the fact he's lauded for his ability to get the most out of the bullpen without overworking any particular reliever (Scott Proctor just thought about Joe Torre and touched his right arm with a frown on his face). The injury to Mo, as well as David Phelps being removed from the bullpen and added to the starting rotation, has certainly helped matters since the innings they've accumulated so far in 2012 won't effect how Girardi uses his relievers from here on out.

"My relievers are 1st in ERA over the last 3 years!"

So out of the remaining members of the Yankees' bullpen Cory Wade has thrown the most innings with 13.1. After that you have David Robertson with 12, Boone Logan with 11.2, Rafael Soriano with 10, and Clay Rapada with 8. I don't think anybody's concerned with the other two members of the bullpen, nor should they be. At least as far as being overworked.

Cory Wade is on pace for about 76 innings, David Robertson is on pace for 70 innings, and Clay Rapada is looking at about 46 innings, all of which are right around each of their 162-game MLB averages. Meanwhile, at his current pace, Rafael Soriano could only see 58 innings, which is 20 innings less than his 162-game average in his 11-year MLB career. The only Yankee reliever that could throw significantly more innings at his current pace is Boone Logan. However, it's hardly something to be worried about, since I'm taking liberties with the word "significant". Logan could see 65 innings, which is only 14 innings above his 162-game average of 51.

"I can go all night long."

To give you an idea of how they match up against other teams, here are a few notes...
  • The Baltimore Orioles have the 3rd most innings thrown by relievers, however they have three men that have thrown more innings than Cory Wade (the Yankee leader in innings thrown by relievers)
  • The Cleveland Indians are 5th, and have two relievers that have tossed more innings than Mr. Wade.
  • The Tampa Bay Rays are 9th, and have three relievers that have gotten more work than Cory.
  • The Toronto Blue Jays are 13th in total innings thrown by relievers, yet still have one bullpen arm with more innings on it than Wade's... Luis Perez's with 15.2.
  • The Boston Red Sox not only have the 2nd most innings thrown by their bullpen, but Scott Atchison leads all of MLB in innings by a reliever with 20.
So you could say that not only has Joe Girardi done a pretty good job in making sure his relievers haven't been worked too hard, in light of the fact his starters have not given him much length at all (starters are 10th in the AL as far as innings pitched), but in the future things are still looking good too.


Monday, May 7, 2012

Hughes' Good Start Raises More Questions

Hey! Look! I can still do it!

I'm sure a lot of Yankee fans are happy that Phil Hughes finally gave the Yankees a quality start. And by "quality start" I'm not simply talking about that silly stat used in place of wins in fantasy baseball leagues. Philthy went 6.2 innings, giving up three earned runs off of six hits, while walking only one and striking out seven. And although averaging a little over 17 pitches an inning isn't spectacular, it is a hell of a lot more efficient than Hughes has been so far this season (going into yesterday's start Phil was averaging over 20 pitches per inning).

Phil Hughes' locker does not have this logo above it.

Personally I'm a bit torn about Phil's game last night. That seems really weird at first, because I should be happy about any good start coming from the Yankees. Yankee starters have the 4th worst ERA in the American League (5.44), while the Rays, Blue Jays, and Orioles have the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best ERAs respectively (the Red Sox have the 2nd worst ERA in the AL, at 5.88). 

But it comes down to really being intrigued by seeing guys like David Phelps get a chance to start games. David didn't exactly slay Goliath in his debut last Thursday against the Royals, going four innings and allowing two earned runs. However he did strike out five batters, while walking zero, which makes me think better days are ahead of him. 

Not Pictured: Royals and David Phelps

Although Ivan Nova has had it rough his last two outings, having given up a total of 11 earned runs over 11.2 innings, on top of a K:BB ratio of 8:7, I think his spot in the rotation is fairly secure. After all, Freddy Garcia didn't get yanked out of the rotation until his ERA ballooned to 12.51. It also took Nova 20 games since he lost on June 3rd of last year to add another "L" to his Win-Loss record. 

And as for CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda, you can rest assured that we'll be seeing their name listed under "Starter" for the foreseeable future. 

So when Andy Pettitte makes his Yankee return, who will get the ax? Well, I think it'll be Phelps. Although ultimately I believe Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman will do what's best for the team, I can't help but think they'll keep giving Hughes a shot at starting until he makes it abundantly clear that he can't do it. In fact, if it wasn't for Mariano's injury, then there wouldn't be a good place for Hughes to fit outside of the rotation. Not with a bullpen already filled with more than enough arms to get them from the 7th through the 9th innings. Now that Rivera's out, a good spot seems to be there for Hughes. The only question is... how long before the team decided to put him here, and giving somebody like David Phelps a real shot?

Understand Sabermetrics : On Base Percentage (OBP)

The entire premise of the movie Moneyball, and the whole moneyball craze, was the thought that defense did not matter, home runs did not matter, batting average did not matter, the only thing that mattered was getting on base. I , without doing hours of research and still not getting a 100% correct  answer, would say that OBP was the first SABR stat that started it all when it comes to being in the mainstream media and being used to calculate value for players. OBP basically calculates the players ability to reach base without the help of a fielding error, fielders choice, dropped third strikes, fielders obstruction, or catchers interference.



The highest OBP ever posted, career wise, was Ted Williams when he posted a .482 OBP. The lowest ever was .194 OBP by Billy Bergen. The highest total for a single season was Barry Bonds when he posted a staggering .609 OBP.


 Here is how OBP is calculated:

On-base percentage (OBP) = (H + BB + HBP) / (AB + BB + HBP + SF)

Basically what you do is add the players number of hits, walks, and hit by pitches, and put that number aside to be used later. You then add the number of at bats, walks, hit by pitches, and sacrifice flies while putting that number aside. You then will divide the first number you got by the second number you got and you will have the players OBP.



Let's use a Yankee's 2011 season stats as a way to hopefully simplify it. Let's use Nick Swisher only because he was the first "moneyball" player that Billy Beane ever drafted using the system because he was the only player that he and traditional scouts could agree on.



In 2011 Nick has 137 hits, 95 walks, and 5 hit by pitches adding up to 237.

He had 526 at bats, 95 walks, 5 hit by pitches, and 8 sacrifice flies adding up to 634.

You will then divide 237 by 634, getting Nick's OBP of .374.

The modern era league average for OBP is considered to be .340. A good way to measure a "good" OBP is to compare it to the players batting average. Nick's 2011 batting average was only .260, meaning he has a OBP 114 points higher then his batting average. Anything over 100 points higher then your batting average is above average at getting on base. Anything 50-100 points is considered below average to average. If it is possible to be below 50 points would mean you are terrible at getting on base. Nick Swisher, Mr. Money Ball, is a great example of what Billy Beane was trying to draft when this craze started.



Yankees Off Day -- Music Recommendation

Monday May 7th 2012 is an off day for the Yankees so rather then me take an off day too I wanted to recommend yet another band/person that you may or may not have ever heard of. Today's lucky band is my personal favorite band, Smile Empty Soul. I am very excited because they have a new cd coming out this month on May 22nd.

Enjoy the music and enjoy the off day.


Sunday, May 6, 2012

Series Wrap: @ Royals 5/3 - 5/6

Game One

This was a horrible day before the game even started. In fact, the game itself doesn't really matter. We all know what happened, have ready numerous reports and thoughts about it, so I'm just going to say that the Yankees scattered 13 hits but were only able to plate 3 runs. Phelps made his first start, and while his line isn't going to "wow" anybody (4 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K), I think it was a pretty good debut. I look forward to his next start.

Game Two

Derek Jeter led off the game with his 13th lead-off hit. The Captain ended up with 2 hits in 5 at bats, including a home run, giving him a .404 batting average so far this season. It's incredible what Jeter has been able to do, and it's hilarious how many "experts" were calling him "finished". Mark Teixeira hit a 2-run homer his his first at bat, giving the Yankees a quick 2-0 lead. Unfortunately Sabathia coughed up that lead just as quickly, as he gave up a single and a run-scoring double before recording an out in the bottom of the 1st. After getting Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer to get out, Jeff Francoeur doubled in Alex Gordon to tie the game.

Yankee fans were groaning, as it looked like the offense was going to need to really wake up, and that's not something we've seen recently out of the Yankee hitters. Thankfully CC settled down and threw another 7 innings, giving up five more hits, and striking out a total of 5 with 0 walks.

In the top of the 7th inning the bats did indeed wake up, as Cano led off the inning with a single. Even after Jones lined out, and Nix popped out, the team didn't give up. Eduardo Nunez tripled to drive in Cano, Chris Stewart followed that up with a run-scoring single, and that was when Derek Jeter homered to cap off a four-run inning. CC did his thing for two more innings, and then Robertson came in to strike out the three batters he faced to give the Yanks a nice win.

Game Three

It wasn't the Hiroki Kuroda we saw three starts ago, when he got lit up by the Twins for six earned runs over 4.1 innings, but Hiro wasn't at his best on Saturday either. Kuroda ended up giving the Yankees only 4.1 innings, giving up three runs (two earned), off of six hits and three walks. Cody Eppley came into the game, after Rapada got the lone batter he faced to to fly out to right field, but allowed 2 more runs to score thanks to a hit and a walk. The highlight pitching-wise was Freddy Garcia's first appearance out of the bullpen, as he went 2 innings without allowing a hit, while walking one and striking one out.

The Yankee offense was able to match the Royals hit-wise, but left 14 men on base, and were 0-for-9 with RISP. Curtis Granderson was able to contribute a couple of hits, both of them being lead-off doubles, but each time the next three batters got out. Russell Martin also had a good day at the plate, going 3-for-4, including a home run in the 7th inning.

The Royals went up 2-1 in the series, which is certainly not something you want to do against at team that was 7-16 coming into the things.

Game Four

After Phil Hughes' last start, fans were writing him off as a starter. And rightfully so, as the guy had an ERA of 7.48, and a WHIP over 1.615. Hughes was actually giving up 11.6 hits per 9 innings, and 2.9 home runs per 9 innings. So when Mariano Rivera was lost before the game on Thursday, fans started saying the time was right to move Phil into the bullpen... where he thrived. Well, apparently, Hughes did not like that plan. The guy Yankee fans used to refer to has "Philthy" went 6.2 innings, giving up only six hits and three earned runs, while only walking one and striking out seven. What made the start even better was that Phil threw 115 pitches, which was a much better pace than he showed this season up to that point.

The Royals were able to score one more run after back to back singles, with a passed ball in between them. But would the bats come through?

Seeing that 16 men were left on base in the game you might think not. However the team was able to round up 12 hits, and drew six walks against five strikeouts. On top of that the team was able to come up with four hits, out of 11 opportunities, with RISP. Derek Jeter came up with his 14th lead-off hit, but was left on base when the next three Yankee hitters couldn't put together a quality at bat. Jeter ended up going 2-for-3 in the game, and scored two runs, but it wasn't enough to get his batting average up to .400 again. It only sits at .397 (insert sarcastic frowny-face here). Granderson was able to give the team a couple of hits as well. But the nicest thing to see ARod and Cano, the #3 and #4 hitters in this game, go a combined 4-for-9 with three runs scored, and seven RBI (four of them came from Cano's grand slam in the 3rd inning).

It ended up giving the Yanks a split in the series, but that won't be good enough. Let's use this game as a catapult into something better.


Series Awards

Jake Taylor Award*
Derek Jeter - 8/17, 6 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR, 2 2B

Gentry Award*
Jayson Nix - 0/6, 2 K

Rick Vaughn Award*
CC Sabathia - Game 2: 8 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

Kelner Award*
Hiroki Kuroda - Game 3: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K


Next Series
vs. Rays 5/8 - 5/10

--------------------

*The awards are named after one of the best baseball movies of all time... Major League.


Jake Taylor Award - Awarded to the most valuable position player. Named after the hard-nose veteran catcher that, despite making the league minimum, was the heart and soul of the 1989 American League East winning Cleveland Indians.


Gentry Award - Awarded to the least valuable position player. Named after the very first man cut from the 1989 Cleveland Indians, #47 Gentry. A man so insignificant he wasn't even given a first name.


Rick Vaughn - Awarded to the best pitcher in the series. This one is, of course, named after the "Wild Thing". The man that made Clu Haywood look silly in the division deciding game.


Kelner Award - Awarded to the worst pitcher in the series. Named after the Opening Day starter for the '89 Indians. Not a good game for Mr. Kelner, as Indians' announcer Harry Doyle famously quipped "thank God" after Kelner left the game. And yet another bad player without a first name.

Understand Sabermetrics : The Intro

I know that a lot of people probably already know the whole craze of sabermetrics (SABR), how they are calculated, how they are used, etc. A lot of you may not though so while I am not being a "prospect humper" I am being a "statmetician" and love talking and explaining SABR stats. This week, and maybe beyond depending on interest from the fans, we will be looking at some of the more common and less complicated SABR stats. Check in tomorrow for the first stat.



Before we get started with this new feature I want to give those who do not know about SABR stats a little bit of the history behind it. Sabermetrics is a specialized analysis of baseball through baseball statistics that measure in game activity to give you the "true" value of a player. The acronym SABR stands for Soceity for America Baseball Research and was coined by Bill James, who is considered the pioneer of SABR stats. Basically SABR stats try their best to determine the value of a player or team in current or past seasons and attempt to predict the value of the player or team for the future. No one stat is a tell all stat and no one stat is perfect but when you know what they all mean and how to use them in what you are looking for they can be extremely useful, in my highly biased opinion.



For those that want to learn from us at TGP, great, come daily and check out our posts and join the conversation. If you are more of a "Do It Yourself" kind of person then here are the most common and well known sites that can teach you everything that you need to know about SABR stats, listed here in no particular order.


This will constantly be updated so send us any suggestions for sites that you have by sending me an email at DBurchHero@TheGreedyPinstripes.com, tweet us @GreedyStripes, or simply leave us a comment on this post! Thanks!!





Yankees @ Royals 5/6/12

UPDATE:

Arod gets one step closer to Willie Mays, and a big pay day, with a three run home run.
Derek Jeter gets two steps closer to Tony Gwynn with two hits and two walks.
Robinson Cano doubled his RBI total with a grand slam.
Hughes pitched 6.2 IP and only allowed three runs for the victory.
Yankees win 10-4.
More Of This Phil Hughes, Please?


The best the Yankees can do today is split their 4 game series with the Kansas City Royals, so that task will be tried today. Phil Hughes is on the mound trying to build on anything and everything to find some consistency for the Yankees rotation. The game will be televised on TBS and YES at 2:10 pm ET. With the off day tomorrow all hands will be on deck out of the bullpen.

Here is the lineup

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Mark Teixeira 1B
Nick Swisher DH
Raul Ibanez LF
Russell Martin C

Dewayne Wise RF