How Will 2021 Look?

"You're losing faith from a lot of Yankees fans, Mr. Cashman. How are you going to earn it back?"

I'm not one for long introductions. That's not to say I can't be long-winded, but since I hardly ever read the intros to articles, why should I expect you to? Plus, if you just want to see a summary of what I'd like to see happen this offseason you can scroll to the bottom. But if you do that, don't come at me on Twitter with things I already explained before that summary.

So let's get started...

It's crazy to think that I'm going to talk about the Yankees acquiring starting pitching this offseason, and it doesn't involve bringing back anybody that was with them this past season.

J.A. Happ is the easiest to let go. Happ's ERA+ as a Yankee was 106, which... while unspectacular... isn't bad. This season he actually had the second best ERA+ on the team (123). However, if you look at his game log he actually only started one game against a playoff team, and that was the Blue Jays. And his pitching performance in Game 2 leaves a lot to be desired. If the Yankees needed a #4 or #5 starter then Happ might be the guy. But that's not the case at all. And I didn't even mention his comments about his role with the team this year. He's not made for the Yankees.

At the beginning of the season I wanted the Yankees to bring back James Paxton over Masahiro Tanaka, but after he went down with yet another injury I changed my mind. James has not thrown more than 160.1 innings in one season, and counting on him for more than that would be naive. Not that he can't do it, but I would not feel comfortable at all if the Yankees were to do so. It's really too bad, since Paxton is a good to great pitcher when healthy. If he would accept a one year deal, then perhaps I'd be interested, but his injury history would still give me pause.

The toughest to let go is Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka has been solid the past few years, but after watching him in the postseason he's lost his luster. I just wouldn't be able to trust him to start another postseason game, and I can't bring myself to be okay with paying him what he deserves unless we could count on him in October. If he'd sign a one year contract worth around $12 million I'd be all for it. But I see him getting around $15 million a year for three years, and I just don't think it would be a good decision for the Bombers.

Moving on to happier things that I'd like to see this offseason, I'm 99.9% sure the Yankees will bring back DJ LeMahieu. In a vacuum I can understand fans thinking DJ is worth a huge contract for a very high average annual value. But we have to keep in mind that it's 2020, and for years now salaries have been lower than normal. Plus, LeMahieu is 31 years old, so we shouldn't expect him to be offered a long-term deal, either. Therefore, while I could see him signing for as little as three years, I will conservatively say he gets a deal worth five years. And he could be looking at an AAV as low as $16 million, but I'll say $18 million to be safe. That comes out to five years and $90 million.

Bringing back LeMahieu is something the Yankees need for their offense, however, the lineup is still too unbalanced. Outside of a couple of good to great batting average guys (DJ and Urshela), there are too many low average/high power hitters. Furthermore, while a lot of their righty batters don't suffer from large splits when it comes to what hand the opposing pitcher uses, the Yankees could use another left-handed batter (Hicks is the only guy they have that can bat left-handed, but he is actually a switch-hitter). Looking at the free agent market one name stands out... Michael Brantley.

Since 2018, which covers 1455 plate appearances, Brantley's batting average was .309, while his on-base percentage was .368. Having someone like that in the Yankees lineup would go a long way in balancing things out. Not to mention that Michael is a lefty, which will help that balance even more with the Yankees righty-heavy (possibly righty-ONLY) lineup.

The problem is position. Brantley has played almost exclusively in left field since 2016. And as of right now I have Clint Frazier pencilled into left in 2021. This leads to a tough decision... Go with Clint Frazier, who I think could do a lot of good things next season, or bring in Brantley who would be a better fit for the lineup? It wasn't an easy decision to make, but I have to side with signing Brantley.

As for his contract, Micheal is 33 years old, so we're not looking at a lot of years. He will also be coming off a two-year deal worth $32 million, which he earned after coming back strong in 2018 following shoulder surgery (two, actually, for the same shoulder injury) that shortened both his 2016 and 2017 seasons. Therefore, another two year deal may work. But I'll play it conservative and guess a three-year contact worth $51 million would work.

That would mean it's time to part-ways with Frazier. I really like the kid as he's matured so much this season, but there's no place for him now except for the bench. And he's simply too valuable to leave on the bench. So it's finally time to do what people have been expecting for years... trade him. 

I'm not very good at figuring out good trade scenarios, but I gave it another shot. I looked at the top pitchers since 2019 (going solely by 2020 would be silly, as this season was too crazy to lean on), and one guy that stuck out was Lance Lynn.

Lynn is in his final season with the Rangers, and since they finished dead last in the AL West, I don't think they'd mind parting with their top starter from 2020. Lance threw to an ERA+ of 141 in 2019, and followed up that effort with another strong 2020 (ERA+ of 136). Lynn actually had the 5th highest fWAR since 2019 as well. And in these last two seasons Lance struck out 10.3 batters per nine innings, which is 16th in MLB during that time. 

Lynn is in the final year of a 3 year $30 million deal, so his salary for next season is far from steep, which will please a front office that seems to value money more than winning.

Another big problem with this team in 2020 was the bullpen. Now that Adam Ottavino is no longer a member of the Circle of Trust, along with the loss of another really good reliever in Tommy Kahnle, I can't see them going into 2021 without getting another elite reliever. Maybe Adam was victim to another strange season that lacked a true Spring Training. Or maybe if Ottavino drops the changeup he added this year, and goes back to the cutter more, he can get back on track. Either way, though, an addition is needed here.

So what do the Yankees do about it? They sign Trevor May for 3 years and $21 million.

Yankees relievers were in the bottom 10 in league when it comes to fWAR, which for them is unheard of. This team has had a strong bullpen for a very long time now, and seeing how much a struggling bullpen hurt them this year it's easy to understand why. I'm sure there are Yankees fans out there that would rather they went after Liam Hendricks or Brandon Workman, but the fact is both of those guys a closers, and closing equals more money. However, May is not a closer, so I could see him coming to the Yankees to be a middle reliever... unlike Hendricks and Workman.

Trevor has very good strikeout ability (14.7 K/9 in 2020), and a good walk rate (2.7 BB/9 in 2020). He was a hit homer prone this season, but seeing that his home run rate was much better in 2019, I believe he can improve that in 2021.

As for my contract estimate, May wasn't quite as good before free agency as Adam Ottavino was. Ottavino got a 3 year deal worth $27 million, so I can see this being about right, if not slightly less money per year.

Before I get into the team payroll, which... by the way... I only bring up so that we can see that my proposed roster is within the realm of possibility, I wanted to go over a couple of things. One, I calculated the payroll based on the Luxury Tax, not actual dollars being spent. Secondly, I understand that there was talk of the Yankees going under the tax threshold again in order to reset their tax rate, but I can't see it happening. Getting down to $210 million (next year's tax threshold) would probably mean weakening an already iffy starting rotation, not improving a bullpen that needs to be improved, and going into next season with the same unbalanced offense. And we have to remember that the current Collective Bargaining Agreement will be replaced at the end of next season (the current CBA runs through December 1, 2021). And I'm almost positive the current Luxury Tax will either be amended to allow for higher team payrolls (and more money for players) or could be replaced with a whole new plan. So taking a chance on weakening your team to abide by something that may be gone a year from now would be silly.

It's hard to estimate how the Yankees will do in arbitration, especially since MLB Trade Rumors have yet to do their's. The Yankees actually have 12 of them (Judge, Urshela, Torres, Voit, Sanchez, Andujar, Montgomery, German, Green, Cessa, Holder, Heller). So in my rough estimate the team's payroll, which includes money Miami is kicking in for Stanton since he opted in, $5 million for Jacoby Ellsbury, non-active roster members (the Luxury Tax is based on the 40-man roster), Brett Gardner's buyout of $2.5 million, and player benefits (also a part of the Luxury Tax), the team payroll will be around $234.5 million. 

For comparison, last year's total was a little over $265 million. If you figure in the Luxury Tax payments (they will pay 30% this season, but 50% next year for going over for the third straight year) the Yankees total for 2020 comes to $282.1 million while it would be $246.75 million in 2021 (barring mid-season additions). That means the Yankees would actually pay about $35.5 million less in 2021. Perhaps not as much as they'd like, but a pretty damn good savings if you ask me.

Now, for a summary of the predictions, along with the final active roster, here you go...

1. Let James Paxton, J.A. Happ, and Masahiro Tanaka go in free agency
2. Re-sign D.J. LeMaheiu for 5 years and $90 million   
3. Sign Michael Brantley for 3 years and $51 million
4. Trade Clint Frazier for Lance Lynn
5. Sign Trevor May for 3 years and $21 million

Active Roster
* - left-handed hitter/pitcher
# - switch hitter

Starting Lineup

1. D.J. LeMaheiu - 2B
2. Aaron Judge -  RF
3. Aaron Hicks# - CF  
4. Giancarlo Stanton - DH
5. Luke Voit - 1B
6. Michael Brantley* - LF
7. Gio Urshela - 3B
8. Gary Sanchez - C
9. Gleyber Torres - SS

Bench

2B/SS/3B Tyler Wade*
OF Mike Tauchman*
C Kyle Higashioka
LF/3B Miguel Andujar

Starting Rotation
1. Gerrit Cole 
2. Lance Lynn
3. Jordan Montgomery*
4. Deivi Garcia
5. Domingo German

Bullpen
Aroldis Chapman*
Zack Britton*
Chad Green
Trevor May
Adam Ottavino
Jonathan Holder 
Luis Cessa
Jonathan Loaisiga

Notes
-Clarke Schmidt will go to AAA, so that he starts and is stretched out. He would be the first man called upon should the Yankees need a starter.
-Luis Severino will most likely return around June (14 months after Tommy John surgery).
-I would like to see the Yankees take a shot on Robbie Ray, who would likely come cheap. He still strikes out a lot of batters, and I think he's better than what we saw in 2020. I didn't include this move because I think the team would rather save the money.
-I like the bullpen, but I wouldn't mind seeing them make another move to make it even better. Perhaps trade Sanchez for someone like Freddy Peralta, then sign James McCann. But Sanchez did have a decent 2019 thanks to 34 home runs, so I don't think he'll necessarily be a negative for us.
-I really like Clint Frazier and think he has a bright future ahead of him. But I think trading him is their best bet to get a strong #2 to go along with Cole. 

Eleven Years and Counting...

  

Photo Credit: Corey Sipkin, NY Post

Rays cast Yankees aside, ending Pinstriped aspirations…

Well, that sucked.

If the Yankees had gotten any help from good health this year, they would be in the AL Championship Series, preparing to host the Houston Astros tonight in San Diego. I think the biggest disappointment is to miss the ALCS by one bad pitch. The path to the World Series this year might be the easiest it ever would have been for the Yankees. I don’t say that because I think the window is closing but the promising younger teams will only get better, increasing the competition so that you don’t have a team with a losing record and a history of cheating playing, sitting in the ALCS right now, for the right to advance to the World Series. The Yankees had a golden opportunity to exact revenge on Astros for their unethical play but sadly we must put our trust and faith in the Rays to do it.

Clearly, the Yankees must do SOMETHING about starting pitching. It will be an on-going Achilles heel unless there can be stronger and more reliable arms behind Gerrit Cole. Starting Deivi Garcia in Game 2 was a clear sign the Yankees simply did not have better options. After the high of Gerrit Cole pitching Game 1, I was deflated when I heard Garcia would get the ball in Game 2. Garcia has been a bright spot this season but the moment was too big for even him. Still, falling behind 2-1 in the series but winning the crucial fourth game, you had to like the Yankees’ chances for the fifth and final game with Cole on the mound. Unfortunately, the bats could not deliver and Year 1 of the massive Cole contract is in the books.

Photo Credit: Corey Sipkin, NY Post

As much as I’ve wanted the Yankees to bring Masahiro Tanaka back, he didn’t have a good post-season. If he had performed like he has in past Octobers, it is very possible the Tampa Bay Rays would be the team sitting at home right now.  The disappointing playoff starts have reduced my optimism the Yankees will or should bring back Masa. With the talk the Yankees will reduce spending, like all teams, after the lost revenue of the 2020 season, it is a near certainty the Yankees won’t make a big splash to land a number two starter like Trevor Bauer. Instead, it will be an off-season of looking for hidden gems ready to blossom.  It is clear Gerrit Cole needs help. He cannot do it by himself.  Whether it is Deivi Garcia and/or Clarke Schmidt or other young Yankee prospects, they need to take it to the next level. But the entirety of improvement in the starting rotation should not fall solely on the young arms. It needs to be a combination of veteran influence and exciting youthful talent and enthusiasm…just not as veteran as someone like J.A. Happ. 

I don’t have a grand plan for the off-season. The Yankees pay Brian Cashman and his henchmen a lot of money to make those decisions. However, I do know the Yankees must re-sign DJ LeMahieu. As one of the team’s best players the last two years and the 2020 AL Batting Champion, the Yankees cannot afford to let the superior defender and consummate teammate depart.

Photo Credit: Jim McIsaac, Getty Images

I’ve heard many fans call for the head of Aaron Boone. While I feel he regressed in 2020, the fact is there is not someone better out there. I respect Boone’s clubhouse skills and I think he will show the improvement evident in 2019 in future years. 2020 was just a weird, freaky, ridiculous and deadly year. Except for maybe the wave of the ten-game winning streak, there was never truly a time that I felt the 2020 Yankees had that “it” quality in terms of championship aspirations.  So, as disappointed as I was to see Mike Brosseau and the Rays beat the Yankees, I cannot say I was surprised. 

I don’t want to point fingers at the Yankees’ bench coach, Carlos Mendoza, who served as Boone’s right-hand man for the first time this season. Perhaps former bench coach Josh Bard was more valuable than what we could observe from the outside looking in. Maybe Mendy is not the right guy to offer choices to Boone in the heat of battle. I like the coach and I am not asking for his firing but maybe a different role is in order. I’ve always felt Boone would be better served by having an experienced manager as his bench coach. Not that I think Buck Showalter would accept that type of position, but he’s the type of guy I have in mind. Okay, maybe I am pointing my finger at Mendoza but I do believe the Yankees need to make the tough decisions to put Aaron Boone in the best possible position to succeed. 

As for Brian Cashman, he is not going anywhere unless a team like the New York Mets throw an overabundance of cash to Cash. I kind of like the idea of maybe bringing back former assistant GM Billy Eppler who was fired after the season as GM of the Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim) by owner Arte Moreno. I thought Eppler did a decent job despite the handcuffs placed on him by Moreno. He could never get the pitching to support Mike Trout but I put that more on Moreno than Eppler. The obstacle for Eppler coming back is the apparent stranglehold on Eppler’s old position by trusted Cashman lieutenant, Tim Naehring. Eppler would most likely have to take a lesser role so I think he’s probably bound for another organization, maybe somewhere closer to his Southern CA home.

There are lots of decisions to be made if the Yankees intend to rebound with a vengeance in 2021. It will be another interesting (and strange off-season) with the pandemic continuing to rage across the globe and an impending battle for the White House next month. Although unrelated to baseball, these are factors that can influence significant financial decisions and commitments by all MLB teams.

If there is one guy on the roster who must improve headed into next season, it is Gleyber Torres. I am not advocate for trading him or, at this point, moving him back to second base despite the availability of so many talented shortstops. I guess I’d change my opinion if the Yankees let LeMahieu get away, but until then, I like DJ at second and not the rover he played during his first season with the Yankees. Gio Urshela has proven his worth as the starting third baseman and same with Luke Voit at first. I will always be enamored with having a guy like Francisco Lindor at short, but realistically, it will never happen. I’d rate it more likely the Yankees would go after a guy like Andrelton Simmons.

Not sure what I think about Gary Sanchez. I’ve always given him my support but after this season, given how he was first cast aside by Gerrit Cole and then later in the post-season by Aaron Boone, I don’t think he has a future in Pinstripes anymore. I certainly do not want Kyle Higashioka as the starting catcher (sorry Higgy fans). Options do seem limited, however, especially if the Yankees are looking to cut payroll. A move away from El Gary may not bring in a J.T. Realmuto to serve as his replacement. Keep expectations low seems to be the theme this year with the monetary constraints expected as a result of the pandemic.

I’d buy out Brett Gardner. Sorry. I can’t say enough about how great of a Yankee he has been. In his final game against the Rays a few days ago, he made a magnificent catch in left. But it is time to pass the baton. Clint Frazier should be the undisputed left fielder next season, with support by Mike Tauchman (or someone else if the Yankee can find an upgrade). Time to give Gardy a gold watch, pat him on the back, give him his day at Yankee Stadium and wish him well in his future endeavors.

Photo Credit: NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

I am hopeful and optimistic for the 2021 despite my concerns noted above. I do think the Yankees will make the right decisions. I don’t see any team going hog wild in free agency this year and I trust the Yankees to find the undiscovered gems. The monster teams growing in San Diego, Chicago (White Sox), and Toronto concern me but the Yankees are a resilient organization with an eye for talent. There are more Gio Urshela’s to be found…the Yankees just need to move quicker before an intelligent team like the Rays can snatch them up.

As for the 2020 playoffs, it sickens me to think the Houston Astros are a series away from the World Series. I hate the Tampa Bay Rays so the ALCS is truly about the lesser of two evils. I’d rather see the Rays (ugh) advance than the pathetic Astros. The Los Angeles Dodgers are my favorite NL team so the decision of which team to support is easy. So, win or lose, this is the order of teams I’d support for winning this year’s World Series:

1.       Los Angeles Dodgers

2.       Atlanta Braves

3.       Tampa Bay Rays

4.       Houston Cheaters

The NLCS should be a classic. The Dodgers have a great team but so do the Braves. I think this is the National League’s year to win the World Series so in my opinion, the winner of the Dodgers/Braves series will be the World Series champion. As long as the season ends with no celebrations by the Rays or Astros, I will be happy.    

Before I go, I’d like to say a final farewell to the great Edward Charles “Whitey” Ford.  The Chairman of the Board, one of the all-time greatest Yankee Legends, passed away on October 8^th at age 91. He suffered from the effects of Alzheimer’s disease in recent years. He was apparently at his Lake Success, NY home watching the Yankees play when he died. No jokes. This is a sad time for the Yankees. I recall my feelings of disappointment when the 2019 Old Timer’s Day at Yankee Stadium did not include Ford. I had feared we were nearing the end of the road for the ten-time All-Star and six-time World Series champion. I never got to see Ford pitch but as a Yankees fan, his historic accomplishments are why the Yankees are such a wonderful collection of Legends who stand above all other teams. Rest in Peace, Whitey. We thank you and we will miss you…

Photo Credit: Ray Stubblebine, REUTERS

As always, Go Yankees! 

Why I'm Not Afraid of Tyler Glasnow Tonight

Notice I didn't do one of these for Blake Snell? There's probably a good reason for that. While I wasn't necessarily afraid of Snell, I know how tough he can be against this team with his devastating breaking stuff, so my confidence was probably as low as it has been all postseason before last night's game. A Yankees 9-3 victory later and I feel much more confident about the rest of this series, even with the Rays second best starter in Tyler Glasnow taking the mound for Tampa Bay. 

Glasnow is a great pitcher and I could not, and would not, ever take anything away from him, but that doesn't mean I have to be afraid of him tonight. The Yankees tend to do better against a pitcher that they have seen at least once, and the Bombers offense have seen the Rays right-hander three times already this season. A fourth time only sways the momentum in the Yankees offense's hands, in my opinion. The Yankees still have to go out there and do what they have to do, I am not overlooking Glasnow by any means and I am far from guaranteeing a victory, but this is most definitely not mission impossible tonight inside Petco Park. 

Glasnow has faced the Yankees three times this season, but only one of those times were when the Yankees offense was THIS healthy and firing on all cylinders. With that said, I refuse to focus on the August 31st start against New York where Glasnow fired six innings of shutout baseball, and instead I will focus on his start on August 8th inside Tropicana Field where the Yankees tagged the Rays right-hander for four runs in just 2.2 innings pitched. 

Here is what the Yankees offense has done against Glasnow career, via ESPN: 

New York Yankees Career Statistics Vs. Tyler Glasnow

PITCHER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mike Ford	8	2	0	0	1	2	0	2	.250	.250	.625	.875
Clint Frazier	8	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	.125	.125	.125	.250
Brett Gardner	7	0	0	0	0	0	3	5	.000	.300	.000	.300
Aaron Hicks	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	1.000	1.333
Aaron Judge	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	.400	.400	.400	.800
DJ LeMahieu	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	.111	.111	.111	.222
Gary Sanchez	8	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	.250	.250	.250	.500
Giancarlo Stanton	4	2	0	0	1	2	1	0	.500	.600	1.250	1.850
Mike Tauchman	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	.000	.000	.000
Gleyber Torres	6	2	0	0	0	1	1	3	.333	.429	.333	.762
Gio Urshela	7	1	1	0	0	3	1	1	.143	.222	.286	.508
Luke Voit	6	1	0	0	1	1	3	3	.167	.444	.667	1.111
TOTALS	76	15	1	1	3	9	9	31	.218	.289	.421	.709

Listen, I'm not taking anything away from Glasnow. He is a great pitcher and he is absolutely filthy when he is on, but he isn't the first great pitcher that is absolutely filthy when he is on that the Yankees have faced during the 2020 postseason. This offense knocked around the presumptive AL Cy Young Award winner for 2020 in Shane Bieber, they beat Carlos Carrasco who isn't who he once was, but is still a strong starter for Cleveland, and they've beaten Blake Snell as well. In my opinion, Glasnow will be just another ace-type starter that went down to a healthy, and clicking on all cylinders New York Yankees offense.