Friday, December 6, 2013

Did The Yankees Make A Huge Mistake?

Yankee Universe is up in arms over the loss of Robinson Cano. While there are many things being said that make me roll my eyes, there are two things that stand out as legit gripes.

The first one being that the Yankees should have traded away Robbie last season. Even though Cano was in the final year of his contract, a player of his caliber could have gotten the Yankees a nice package of young players.

"Wouldn't I look good in pinstripes?"

Staying within reason, there is no package of young players that would equal Robinson Cano. Cano has received MVP votes in six different seasons, finishing in the top five of voting three times. He's also a five-time Silver Slugger winner, two-time Gold Glove winner, and five-time All Star. Unless the Yankees got back Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, or Andrew McCutchen, the chances of one player in that package getting to Robbie's level of play would be slim to none.

But that package would certainly be better than the nothing the Yankees currently have for keeping Robinson.

Perhaps the Yankees didn't think anybody would be willing to offer more than they would, and therefore didn't want to deal him away and hurt their chances of re-signing their star second baseman at the end of the season. I don't know the type of person Cano is, but I can imagine a player wouldn't feel nearly as inclined to re-sign with his old team after being traded. I can't think of a situation where the team that traded away a star player tried to re-sign him at the end of the same season, so I have nothing to back up that thought. But I can't blame the Yankees front office for holding onto him like they did.

The Yankees likely didn't think they were out of things on July 31st, either. Of course, they were in 4th place and only four games over .500 at that point, but they also trotted out a lineup that night which included Brent Lillibridge, Jayson Nix, and Chris Stewart. So they had reason to think better days were ahead. They were wrong, as the team finished in that same 4th place, while also finishing 6.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. But for a team that never says "die", I totally get not wanting to trade away their best player mid-season.

The other thought that holds water with me has to do with the contract the Yankees just gave to Jacoby Ellsbury. While Ellsbury is a really good player, he's not at the level of Robinson Cano. Ellsbury's career wRC+ is 109, while Cano's career wRC+ is 126. And even though Jacoby's injuries were of the "freak" variety, the fact of the matter is Robbie has played in 405 more games than Jacoby has since 2007 (Ellsbury's rookie season).

So how could the Yankees not be willing to go two or three more years for a player that's not only clearly better than Jacoby Ellsbury, but who has been a Yankee since he started playing professional baseball?

"Yeah, what's up with that?"

My answer to that is two-fold.

First of all, the average annual value of the contract the Yankees offered Robbie (reportedly 7 years for $175 million) is higher than the one he took in Seattle. Cano's deal with the Mariners (10 years for $240 million) is worth $24 million a season, while the contract offered by the Yankees was worth $25 million a season. So you can't tell me it was about the money. The problem for the Yankees was the years. And you can not blame them for wanting to stay away from that type of commitment, which gets into my second point...

Just look at the ten year deals that have been handed out.

Alex Rodriguez has signed two different ten-year contracts, and I really don't think I have to tell you how that has turned out.

Albert Pujols signed a ten-year contract with the Angels, and just in the past year he's had knee surgery and suffered a partial tear in his left foot. Not to mention that his OPS has gone down in each of the last three years.

Prince Fielder signed a nine-year contract with the Tigers two years ago, and in only the 2nd year of that deal he had his worst season since 2006. You have to imagine the people in Detroit Texas are a bit concerned about having Prince for another seven years.

The Yankees have another long contract, this one for eight years, that they're regretting right now. That one belongs to Mark Teixeira. You know, the guy that's made $107.5 million in his first five seasons with the Bombers, but only been worth $64.5 million (according to Fangraphs).

And then there's the eight-year deal the Dodgers gave to Matt Kemp. In the four years before giving Matt that contract, Kemp had averaged 159 games a season. In the two seasons since then he's played a grand total of 179 games, thanks to having two different surgeries on his left shoulder, and another surgery on his left ankle.

I know you can't predict injuries, and they are especially surprising when they happen to players with no prior history of injury, but those five players are pretty good examples of why it's not a good idea to give away long contracts.

Perhaps the silliest response I've heard to this news is that the Yankees are somehow doomed. As if the future of the organization sat on the shoulders of Robinson Cano. Before I show you something, let me say one thing...

"You're a moron!"

Okay, two things... No one player can make or break a baseball team. Not the greatest pitcher on the planet, not the greatest hitter on the planet, and certainly not the best second baseman in Major League Baseball. If a baseball team only had to bat one player, or could only start one pitcher, then okay. But last time I checked nine players were in a batting lineup, and five pitchers were in a starting rotation. That means any one player only makes up 1/9th or 1/5th of a team's offense/pitching.

Winning takes a team effort. In fact, speaking of teams, let's take a look at the starting second baseman for the Yankees championship teams (including their bWAR) of 1996, 1998, 1999, and 2000...

1996 - Mariano Duncan 2.7
1998 - Chuck Knoblauch 2.8
1999 - Chuck Knoblauch 3.5
2000 - Chuck Knoblauch .3

The average bWAR for Yankee second baseman in those four seasons was 2.3. What was Omar Infante's bWAR last season? 2.4.

This news also means that things are about to get very interesting for the Yankees and their fans. Do you think the team is going to sit on that $175 million? Heck no! Omar Infante, or another replacement second baseman, is not the only new Yankee we're going to see next year due to this. Actually, this news makes me feel better about the team's chances of really improving their pitching. Instead of signing Cano and one other great starter, the team can get somebody like Infante to play second base, while getting two other great pitchers to put with CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, and Hiroki Kuroda.

And while the downgrade is fairly large going from Cano to Infante (or whoever), the team has already upgraded more-so at the catcher spot... where they went from Stewvelli to Brian McCann. If they can get another batter such as Beltran to keep Wells and/or Ichiro out of the lineup, then there's another big upgrade to counter the downgrade at second base.

I'm not saying the loss of Cano is a good thing. It's never a good thing to lose a player like Robbie. But what I am saying is that this isn't the beginning of the end, it's the beginning of a brand new chapter in Yankees baseball. And I'm really excited for it.

"This is going to be awesome!"

9 comments:

  1. One thing I didn't think of for this post...

    Oftentimes when a player gets a large contract he's getting paid for previous performance. That's okay if it's the same team, as that team has benefited from that "previous performance". But in this case the Seattle Mariners didn't benefit from Cano's "previous performance", so they are paying Robbie for what he did for the Yankees, not just for what he will do for the Mariners.

    That's like leaving one company for another, and the new company gives you a bonus for what you did for the old one.

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  2. Daniel...
    What you wrote is fine with me, as I wrote somewhere else around here. Except mine was more like a statement not a fine dissertation like you have a habit of doing. LOL!

    Question for anyone; Do we get a draft pick for Granderson or Cano?

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    1. Daniel didn't write this! I know he writes more than I do, but damn... bro! ;)

      We get a draft pick for each of them. Supplemental picks, which come between the 1st and 2nd rounds. But I think we lose those picks if we sign players with draft pick compensation tied to them.

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    2. My most humble apologizes kind sir, I had just finished reading his writings and made a mistake.
      I should have known it was your writing anyhow...you both have different styles.
      I am getting old I guess. LOL
      Thanks for the info, on the draft picks!

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  3. Incorrect sir. You cannot lose supplemental picks

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    Replies
    1. Mark Feinsand has confirmed that the Yankees have already lost one of their supplemental picks due to signing McCann and Ellsbury.

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    2. I read that. I was basing that off his initial report from an "MLB Official" that the Yankees would not lose the picks. Oh well you know how I love conflicting reports.

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    3. I think Daniel is right on this one, I think...I read somewhere, one can't lose a supplemental pick!

      Feinsand doesn't count, he rated Brett as a 4th or 5th back-up OF'd, back in 2007(?). LOL

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    4. MLB Trade Rumors now has us sending our third round pick to the St. Louis Cardinals, in which they will turn into Albert Pujols part 2, and we keep our supplemental picks.

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Sorry for the Capatcha... Blame the Russians :)