Friends, the Major League Baseball Draft is 2 days away. For most baseball fans, the 3 day event comes and goes with little if any awareness. This may have to do with the fact that it, unlike the other major sports drafts, takes place in the middle of the season. The draft is not televised on ESPN, (also unlike other sports leagues like the NFL and NBA), which further diminishes awareness of the event.
This compilation board is something I like to do to stay up on who the big names are in the draft pool. What I do is take rankings from 4 different sources that I trust the most on the subject of draft prospects and I compile them into one board. And honestly, it is very difficult to find a lot of information on the MLB Draft on the internet, at least compared to the more popular NFL and NBA Drafts for reasons stated above. The MLB Draft is more niche-y, so I like to consider what I do a service to those other MLB draftniks out there who are looking for some good information.
Rnk | Name | Pos | School |
1 | Brendan Rodgers | SS | H.S. |
2 | Dansby Swanson | SS | Vandy |
3 | Alex Bregman | SS/2B | LSU |
4 | Dillon Tate | SP | UC Santa B |
5 | Carson Fulmer | SP/RP | Vandy |
6 | Kyle Tucker | OF | H.S. |
7 | Daz Cameron | OF | H.S. |
8 | Andrew Benintendi | OF | Arkansas |
9 | Tyler Jay | SP/RP | Illinois |
10 | Trenton Clark | OF | H.S. |
11 | Garrett Whitley | OF | H.S. |
12 | Ian Happ | 2B/OF | Cincinnati |
13 | Walker Buehler | SP | Vandy |
14 | Tyler Stephenson | C | H.S. |
15 | Kyle Funkhouser | SP | Louisville |
16 | Kolby Allard | SP | H.S. |
17 | Jonathan Harris | SP | Mo. State |
18 | Mike Nikorak | SP | H.S. |
19 | Cornelius Randolph | 3B | H.S. |
20 | Nick Plummer | OF | H.S. |
21 | James Kaprielian | SP | UCLA |
22 | Chris Betts | C | H.S. |
23 | Donny Everett | SP | H.S. |
24 | Brady Aiken | SP | IMG Acad |
25 | Ashe Russell | SP | H.S. |
26 | Michael Matuella | SP | Duke |
27 | Phil Bickford | SP | JUCO |
28 | Kevin Newman | SS | Arizona |
29 | Nathan Kirby | SP | Virginia |
30 | D.J. Stewart | OF | Fla State |
31 | Cody Ponce | SP | Cal Poly P |
32 | Ke'Bryan Hayes | 3B | H.S. |
33 | Scott Kingery | 2B/OF | Arizona |
34 | Richie Martin | SS | Florida |
35 | Beau Burrows | SP | H.S. |
36 | Alex Young | SP | TCU |
37 | Dakota Chalmers | SP | H.S. |
38 | Jacob Nix | SP | IMG Acad |
39 | Mitchell Hansen | OF | H.S. |
40 | Jalen Miller | SS | H.S. |
41 | Justin Hooper | SP | H.S. |
42 | Eric Jenkins | OF | H.S. |
43 | Austin Smith | SP | H.S. |
44 | Juan Hillman | SP | H.S. |
45 | Joe McCarthy | OF | Virginia |
46 | Triston McKenzie | SP | H.S. |
47 | Blake Trahan | SS | La Lafayette |
48 | Chris Shaw | 1B/OF | Boston Col |
49 | Donnie Dewees | OF | UNF |
50 | Nolan Watson | SP | H.S. |
51 | Peter Lambert | SP | H.S. |
52 | Tristan Beck | SP | H.S. |
53 | Jacob Woodford | SP | H.S. |
54 | Kyle Holder | SS | San Diego |
55 | Drew Finley | SP | H.S. |
56 | Kep Brown | OF | H.S. |
57 | Riley Ferrell | RP | TCU |
58 | Josh Naylor | 1B | H.S. |
59 | Lucas Herbert | C | H.S. |
60 | Alonzo Jones | 2B/OF | H.S. |
61 | Cole Sands | SP | H.S. |
62 | Jahmai Jones | 2B/OF | H.S. |
63 | Luken Baker | SP/1B | H.S. |
64 | Mikey White | SS | Alabama |
65 | Mike Soroka | SP | H.S. |
66 | Kyle Cody | SP | Kentucky |
67 | Nick Neidert | SP | H.S. |
68 | Demi Orimoloye | OF | H.S. |
69 | Brady Singer | SP | H.S. |
70 | Kyle Molnar | SP | H.S. |
71 | Bryce Denton | OF/3B | H.S. |
72 | Tyler Nevin | 3B | H.S. |
73 | Andrew Suarez | SP | Miami |
74 | Christin Stewart | OF | Tennessee |
75 | Antonio Santillan | SP | H.S. |
76 | Josh Staumont | SP | Azusa Pac. |
77 | Jeff Degano | P | Indiana St |
78 | Ryan Burr | P | Ariz St |
79 | Harrison Bader | OF | Florida |
80 | David Hill | SP | San Diego |
81 | Taylor Ward | C | Fresno St |
82 | Trey Cabbage | 3B | H.S. |
83 | Jacob Taylor | SP | JUCO |
84 | Joe DeMers | SP | H.S. |
85 | Ryan Cole McKay | SP | H.S. |
86 | Blake Hickman | P | Iowa |
87 | Bryan Hudson | SP | H.S. |
88 | Parker McFadden | SP | H.S. |
89 | Tanner Rainey | P | West Alabama |
90 | Thomas Eshelman | SP | Cal State F |
91 | Mark Mathias | OF | Cal Poly SLO |
92 | Gio Brusa | OF | Pacific |
93 | Tristin English | SP | H.S. |
94 | Brandon Lowe | 2B | Maryland |
95 | Chad Smith | OF | H.S. |
96 | Cadyn Grenier | SS | H.S. |
97 | Justin Maese | SP | H.S. |
98 | Brendon Little | SP | H.S. |
99 | Austin Rei | C | Washington |
100 | Garrett Davila | SP | H.S. |
101 | Chandler Day | SP | H.S. |
102 | Skye Bolt | OF | UNC |
103 | Desmond Lindsay | 3B/1B | H.S. |
104 | Jonathan India | SS/2B | H.S. |
105 | Wesley Rodriguez | SP | H.S. |
106 | Kevin Kramer | SS | UCLA |
107 | Blake Perkins | OF | H.S. |
108 | Thomas Szapucki | SP | H.S. |
109 | Jackson Kowar | SP | H.S. |
110 | Alex Robinson | RP | Maryland |
111 | Nick Sprengel | SP | H.S. |
112 | Casey Hughston | OF | Alabama |
113 | Brett Lilek | RP | Ariz St |
114 | Mac Marshall | SP | JUCO |
115 | Brandon Koch | P | Dallas Baptist |
116 | Rhett Wiseman | OF | Vandy |
117 | Tate Matheny | OF | Mo. State |
118 | Austin Allen | C | Fla Tech |
119 | Tyler Krieger | SS | Clemson |
120 | Mariano Rivera, Jr. | P | Iona |
121 | Austin Byler | 3B/1B | Nevada |
122 | Jared Padgett | SP | H.S. |
123 | David Thompson | 3B | Miami |
124 | Braden Bishop | OF | Washington |
125 | Ryan Mountcastle | SS/3B | H.S. |
126 | Kolton Kendrick | 1B | H.S. |
127 | Marquise Doherty | OF | H.S. |
128 | Andrew Stevenson | OF | LSU |
129 | Ian Kahaloa | SP | H.S. |
130 | Mitchell Traver | SP | TCU |
131 | Travis Blankenhorn | SS | H.S. |
132 | Taylor Clarke | SP/RP | Col of Charl |
133 | Andrew Moore | SP/RP | Oregon St |
134 | Josh Sborz | RP | Virginia |
135 | Gray Fenter | SP | H.S. |
136 | Austin Riley | SP/SS | H.S. |
137 | Ryan McKenna | OF | H.S. |
138 | Grayson Long | SP | Texas A&M |
139 | Jack Wynkoop | SP | South Car |
140 | Steven Duggar | OF | Clemson |
141 | Bryan Hoeing | SP | H.S. |
142 | Luke Wakamatsu | SS | H.S. |
143 | Ryan Kellogg | SP | Ariz St |
144 | Tanner Dodson | SP | H.S. |
145 | D.J. Wilson | OF | H.S. |
146 | Jimmy Herget | SP/RP | South Fla |
147 | Paul DeJong | 2B/C | Illinois St. |
148 | Isaiah White | OF | H.S. |
149 | Doak Dozier | OF | H.S. |
150 | Garrett Zech | OF | H.S. |
151 | Joey Bart | C | H.S. |
152 | Zack Erwin | SP | Clemson |
153 | Drew Smith | RP | Dallas Baptist |
154 | Kevin Duchene | SP | Illinois |
155 | Ben Johnson | OF | Texas |
156 | Carl Wise | 3B | Col of Charl |
157 | Nick Shumpert | SS | H.S. |
158 | Elih Marrero | C | H.S. |
159 | Kyle Dean | OF | H.S. |
160 | Willie Calhoun | 3B | JUCO |
161 | Jake Lemoine | SP | Houston |
162 | Jonas Wyatt | SP | H.S. |
163 | Logan Allen | SP | H.S. |
164 | Nolan Long | SP/RP | Wagner |
165 | Ian Gibaut | SP | Tulane |
166 | Michael Boyle | SP | Radford |
167 | Nic Enright | SP | H.S. |
168 | Jaret Hellinger | SP | H.S. |
169 | Josh Tobias | 3B | Florida |
170 | Patrick Sandoval | SP | H.S. |
171 | Colton Eastman | SP | H.S. |
172 | Nick Lee | SP | H.S. |
173 | Marcus Brakeman | SP | Stanford |
174 | Dylan Thompson | SP | H.S. |
175 | Nick Madrigal | SS | H.S. |
176 | Dayton Dugas | SP | H.S. |
177 | A.J. Minter | RP | Texas A&M |
178 | Max Wotell | SP | H.S. |
179 | Fitz Stadler | SP | H.S. |
180 | John Kilichowski | SP | Vandy |
181 | Seth McGarry | SP | Fla Atlantic |
182 | Joe Davis | C | H.S. |
183 | Kyri Washington | OF | Longwood |
184 | Travis Lakins | RP | Ohio St |
185 | Travis Bergen | SP | Kennesaw St |
186 | Isiah Gilliam | OF/1B | JUCO |
187 | Chad Smith | RP | JUCO |
188 | Ryan Karstetter | 3B | H.S. |
189 | Jacob Croneworth | SP/RP | Michigan |
190 | Tyler Williams | OF | H.S. |
191 | Kevin McCanna | SP | Rice |
192 | Josh Magee | OF | H.S. |
193 | Justin Garza | SP/RP | Cal State F |
194 | Jeff Hendrix | OF | Oregon St |
195 | Travis Maezes | 3B | Michigan |
196 | Chris Chatfield | OF | H.S. |
197 | Logan Ratledge | 2B | NC State |
198 | Max Schrock | 2B | South Car |
199 | Tyler Ferguson | RP | Vandy |
200 | Sam Bordner | SP | H.S. |
Interesting Tidbits:
- The biggest risers from last month's compilation board are Andrew Benintendi (+52), Nolan Watson (+37), Tyler Stephenson (+35), Mike Soroka (+33), and Lucas Herbert (+31). The biggest risers from the original compilation board are Tyler Jay (+28), Dillon Tate (+25), Garrett Whitley (+22), and Cornelius Randolph (also +22).
- The biggest fallers from last month's board are Jake Lemoine (-78), Kyle Dean (-71), Mitchell Traver (-53), and David Thompson (-52). The biggest fallers from the original compilation board are Marcus Brakeman (-133), Chandler Day (-66), Gio Brusa (-61), and Kyle Cody (-45).
- The most divisive players are Carson Fulmer (#3 on MLB.com, #43 on ESPN.com), Kevin Newman (#2 on ESPN.com, #29 on Baseball America), and Alex Young (32, 36, and 37 on Baseball America, Fangraphs, and MLB.com respectively, not ranked in top 100 on ESPN.com).
- Brendan Rodgers was #1 on all 3 comp boards, the first time anyone has ever done that in the 3 years I've been doing this. Other models of consistency were Ian Happ (range from 10-14), Daz Cameron (7 to 14), and Richie Martin (28 to 37).
As I mentioned, Brendan Rodgers has held serve since the original board as the #1 ranked prospect. He's a HS SS that has a good chance to stay at the position and hit for power and average. He's a little big for SS so if anything, he would have to move to 3B but most think his plus instincts will allow him to stay where he is. Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman, two SS who play in the SEC, are the #2 and #3 ranked players on the board. Though he actually played 2B until this year in defense to current Yankees SS prospect Vince Conde, Swanson has the best chance to stay at the position of the top 3 players. Bregman has many believers who think he can stay at SS but there is a strong contingent of scouts who believe the 5'11 Albuquerque native will have to make the same move as other notable Albuquerque middle infielder Dustin Pedroia to 2B.
The Yankees have 7 of the first 200 picks, (16, 30, 57, 92, 123, 153, and 183). Their draft pool is the sixth largest in the league, ($7,885,000 for 11 picks); the first two picks are worth a combined $4.5 million by themselves. That much in bonus allowances gives NY some options. For example, if there's a top 10 caliber player with equivalent bonus demands that, for whatever reason, ends slides to 16, the Yankees could easily meet those demands. Granted, they'd have to shift close to a million dollars from their next pick, but they could still give that player a 7-figure bonus. Whether that would be a sound strategy is debatable, but the fact is it's easily do-able.
There have been several mocks over the past month that have come out, and there are 3 players that have been tied with the Yankees at pick 16 most consistently: HS C Chris Betts, UCLA RHP James Kaprielian, and HS CF Garrett Whitley. Betts and Kaprielian have been tied to the Yankees in 7 different mocks and Whitley 6. Others mentioned include Ian Happ, Phil Bickford, and Donny Everett.
I actually developed a fun little analytic for determining the % chance Yankees take some of these players. What I did was take the % chance a player is available when New York is picking at 16, (which I determined by using the range of potential picks as found on Fangraph's Sortable Draft Board), times the % of mentions that player was mentioned versus all other mentions. For example, FG says the range for Chris Betts is 13-26, so there is a 78.6% chance he will be available at 16. Out of the 35 mentions in the various mocks I have tracked, Betts was 25.7% of them. Multiplying those two ratios together, I've theorized that there is a 20.2% chance New York takes Chris Betts. The rest of the players are as follows:
Player | % Chnc |
Chris Betts | 20.2% |
James Kaprielian | 9.1% |
Cody Ponce | 8.6% |
Mike Nikorak | 8.1% |
Phil Bickford | 7.8% |
Garrett Whitley | 4.4% |
Cornelius Randolph | 2.9% |
Kolby Allard | 1.7% |
Ian Happ | 1.4% |
Daz Cameron | 0.2% |
Trenton Clark | 0.0% |
Jon Harris | 0.0% |
Walker Buehler | 0.0% |
Kevin Newman | 0.0% |
Nate Kirby | 0.0% |
Kyle Funkhouser | 0.0% |
Brady Aiken | 0.0% |
TOTAL | 64.4% |
THE FIELD | 35.6% |
The first 10 players have been linked to New York at pick 16. All of them combined have a roughly a 64.4% chance that one of them is selected by NY. The other 7 FG feels like could go somewhere in that range, but because they have not been linked with NY the have a 0% chance. Note that this is as of TODAY and lots could happen or be rumored between now and Monday.
That actually leads me to a brief stump speech that I will make on behalf of Brady Aiken. Kiley McDaniel mentioned today in a blogpost on Fangraphs that there is optimism regarding the infamous elbow that led Houston to not signing Aiken last summer and subsequently needing Tommy John surgery this Spring. Kiley states there are a number of executives he has spoken too that state the medicals are not as bad as had been believed and he now believes Aiken is firmly back in the first round. I wholeheartedly believe that if Aiken is available at 16, New York needs to take him. In a mediocre draft such as this, where the other pitchers that are going to be taken around this sport are being described as #3 to #4 starters, New York needs to take the guy who could potentially be an ace, even if there is still an elevated risk of him not reaching that potential (or even reaching the majors AT ALL). I likened it today to the Yoan Moncada situation from last Spring, (which I bemoaned at length). Brady Aiken is a high, HIGH end talent and the Yankees virtually NEVER get an opportunity to acquire amateur talent such as Aiken because of the way the various mechanisms for delivering amateur talent to teams are set up. You have to think about Aiken in this simple context: potential * probability of reaching that potential. Even if Aiken is "riskier" than other players that New York could potentially take in this area such as James Kaprielian, his potential is so much higher than that of Kaprielian that I think the extra risk is more than offset. Add to that the fact that New York has the compensatory pick at 30 in which they can go "safe", (if there really is such a thing in drafting amateur talent), I am CONVINCED NEW YORK SHOULD TAKE AIKEN.
There are four notable players the Yankees have drafted in the past that are available again this year, which I wrote about here. Those players are Florida State OF DJ Stewart, Iona RHP Mariano Rivera, Jr., Tennessee OF Vincent Jackson, and UCLA OF Ty Moore. It'll be interesting to see if New York selects any of them again. It happened last year when they took Jordan Foley for the second time. Considering I've been following their college careers from the start I've grown fond of them all and would like to see them all end up as Yankees. I'd expect Stewart to be a late 1st or 2nd rd pick, Rivera to go in rounds 3-5, Jackson 4-7, and Moore 6-10.
Looking at my prospect rankings spreadsheet the other day, I realized just how position player heavy it was. There are 76 guys on that list right now and amazingly only 31 of them are pitchers. That's just a little bit better than 40%, which is bad low. What makes it worse, in my mind, is that only 8 of those 30 pitchers were born in 1994 or later. So there are almost no good young pitchers in the lower levels, (except for Austin DeCarr). That's due to two reasons: 1. NYY didn't sign a single HS pitcher last year, (I don't count DeCarr because he was post grad) and 2. Out of the 18 players they gave a bonus of $100,000 or more in last summer's IFA class, not a single one was a pitcher.
With that in mind, I would like to see NYY draft a lot of pitching this year. For the first 5 rounds it would still be prudent as always to draft best player available, but for the Yankees' sake I hope that happens to be pitching. And I'm hoping to see 2 or 3 late round over slot signings of young HS pitchers. Those kids are usually super volatile talent-wise but MAN they can they payoff big. By going just $100,000+ over slot they could unearth some diamonds like Brady Lail or Bryan Mitchell.
In the interest of full disclosure, here are links to the four rankings this compilation is based on:
1. Baseball America (Baseball America staff)
2. ESPN.com (Keith Law and Eric Longenhagen)
3. FanGraphs (Kiley McDaniel)
4. MLB Pipeline (Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo)
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Sorry for the Capatcha... Blame the Russians :)