David Price vs. Zack Greinke The Ultimate Showdown

The Ultimate Free Agency Showdown. Two of the best available starting pitchers on the market and two of the best pitchers in 2015 go head-to-head on this Friday to see which team got the better end of the stick here. Was it the Boston Red Sox who signed David Price to the biggest deal ever handed out to a starting pitcher at seven years and $217 million? Or was it the Arizona Diamondbacks who shocked the league by signing Zack Greinke to a six year deal worth $205 million giving Greinke the largest average annual value ever recorded in Major League Baseball at 34.4 million?

First and foremost the age of these two starting pitchers is a big key and the mileage on their arms is another factor that must be considered when deciding a winner. Price is 30 years old and Greinke is 32 but Price signed a seven year deal that runs through his 37^th birthday while Greinke only signed for six years taking him through his age 38 season. Signing pitchers through their age 38 season is never ideal, not that 37 years old is much better, so can I say push? Please? The mileage though is another concern as Price has 1441.2 (eight seasons) IP on his left arm while Greinke has racked up 2094.2 IP (12 seasons) in his career. Adding in postseason play you can tally another 63.1 IP on Price’s arm and 58.1 on Greinke’s arm. The Price deal scares me because I, as a Yankees fan, have seen the big left-hander with a ton of mileage come over on a huge deal only to flame out after three or four seasons of it, his name is CC Sabathia. Sure Price has an opt-out clause after three years, CC had one too, but Price is not going to exceed the contract he currently has at 33 years old. Not going to happen, don’t bank on it. Meanwhile Greinke’s deal is shorter and therefore less of a risk in my opinion. Greinke gets the edge but I am pretty glad that neither are wearing pinstripes in 2016, not for that salary. 

The environment in which these two pitchers will pitch in is especially important in this showdown. Many wondered, mostly Boston-based beat writers and bloggers, if the racism that is so blatant in Boston would derail Price from the beginning. I’ve never been to Boston and I would never generalize an entire town and fan base based on the ignorant acts of a few but I didn’t, the Boston beat writers did. Price is a fiery guy and I can see where some racist slurs or comments would get to him and negatively affect him. I don’t pretend to know Price personally but people who likely do, or somewhat do, are questioning it so it would worry me if I was a Red Sox fan. Meanwhile Grienke’s battle with anxiety, which is now medically treated FYI, is well documented but shouldn’t be a problem overall on the West Coast and in Arizona. Even as the highest paid player in Major League Baseball history, AAV wise anyway, Greinke gets the slight edge here as well.

The final piece we’ll look at is projections. Baseball Reference does a great job of projecting players every single offseason and we’ve used their information many times already this winter. If anything the site undervalues and under-shoots guys a lot of the times so keep that in mind when checking out these projections.

Price:

Year	Tm	Age	W	L	ERA	IP	H	R	ER	HR	SO	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W
2016	Proj.	30	13	8	3.09	195.0	179	76	67	18	193	1.128	8.3	0.8	1.9	8.9	4.71

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Greinke:

Year	Tm	Age	W	L	ERA	IP	H	R	ER	HR	SO	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W
2016	Proj.	32	15	6	2.54	191.0	158	58	54	16	175	1.058	7.4	0.8	2.1	8.2	3.98

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Neither pitcher looks likely to fall off in the first year of their new deals nor are the stats really worth mentioning since they are so comparable. The thing about free agency is though is you have to look beyond the 2016 season to the 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and seasons beyond. No one knows how these deals will work out in three years or more but if you’re going to take an educated guess it looks like the Arizona Diamondbacks will be a little happier with their decision than the Boston Red Sox will be. Well unless David Price gets greedy and opts out, then Boston and Price for the win.