What's Next For Andy?

Soon.

Things are looking great so far for Andy Pettitte and the Yankees. After three starts Andy has thrown 21.1 innings to a 2.53 ERA and 1.078 WHIP. Looking at the total stats for Yankee starters, and ignoring the fact that Pettitte has only started 3 games versus 8 to 9 for the other guys, he's leading the team in ERA, WHIP, Hits/9, Walks/9, and Strikeout/Walk. In fact, Mike from River Avenue Blues went as far as to say "if the Yankees were going to start a best-of-five playoff series today, Andy would be my number two starter".

But I can't look past the fact that Andy has thrown against the Mariners, Reds, and Royals. Seattle and Kansas City are 10th and 11th in the American League, and Cincinnatti is 12th in the National League, in runs scored. Not that I believe anybody expects Andy to keep a 2.53 ERA all season long, but perhaps we're all feeling a false sense of security. What do some of Pettitte's "other" stats look like?

Sooner.

For starters, hitters are getting a bit unlucky against Andrew Eugene. The MLB average Batting Average on Balls in Play this season is .298, and Andy's career BABIP is .312. Which has led batters to have a triple-slash against Pettitte of only .234/.280/.390, which are 37, 45, and 8 points below his averages. So far it looks like we're in for a bit of a correction, and in a bad way.

In his career Andy has struck out batters 17.1% of the time, and walked batters 7.4% of the time. In his three starts this season he's striking out 22.9% of hitters, and walking only 6% of hitter. Not a huge difference, but this too leads me to believe his 2.53 ERA is a bit of a mirage.

Batters are also hitting a lot more ground balls against Andy. In 16 MLB seasons Andy gave up ground balls in 48.6% of at bats, while in 2012 hitters are putting the ball on the ground 56.1% of the time. Which has led to him getting more double plays than normal too (25% vs. 13%). But there have been only 12 double play opportunities with Pettitte on the mound this season, against 2,561 opportunities in his career. So chances are we're going to see a few more fly balls hit off of Andy, and fly balls tend to lead to more hits against a pitcher.

Here it comes.

Which leads me to the one stat that makes me believe that Andy isn't due for a big-time correction... the wrong way. That would be his Home Runs/Fly Ball rate. So far this season opponent's have hit home runs on 22.2% of fly balls hit off of Andy. That is way above the MLB average this season of 7.9%, and even higher than Pettitte's career mark of 6.3%. But this isn't something that only Pettitte is suffering from, as I wrote on Monday.

To sum things up, don't be surprised if Andy starts giving up more hits, and therefore more runs. But there's no reason to expect him to drop that far either. So Andy may not be the team's #2 starter come playoff time, but he probably won't be pitching out of the bullpen either.

Gotcha!

Royals @ Yankees 5/23/12

UPDATE: 

Curtis Granderson and Alex Rodriguez both belted home runs to put the Yankees up 3-0. Has the offense finally awoken? 

A ground ball scores Jeter with a fielders choice. Alex Rodriguez follows it up with a long solo home run, his second of the game,  to make it 5-0 Yanks.

Yankees win 8-3

The Yankees host the Royals for the rubber game of the series at the Stadium tonight at 7:05 pm ET. The game will be televised on YES and will showcase Yankees pitcher Andy Pettitte pitching for the first time since he jumped out of his time machine and completely shut down the Reds for 8 shutout innings. Here is tonight's lineup.

1. Jeter SS
2. Granderson CF
3. Teixeira 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Cano 2B
6. Swisher RF
7. Jones DH
8. Martin C
9. Nix LF

Royals @ Yankees 5/22/12

UPDATE:

The Yankees are on the board!!! Robinson Cano solo home run, his 5th, making it 2-1 Royals

Derek Jeter ties the game with an RBI single. 2-2 Tie

Granderson on an RBI ground out gives the Yankees the lead 3-2. It may be YET ANOTHER RISP fail.. but it was a productive RISP FAIL... Baby steps Yankees fans. 

Hughes probably done after 6 IP and 103 pitches. 2 runs allowed and lowered his ERA under 5. Encouraging signs coming from Hughes even if 2 of his good starts were against the Royals and the bottom dwellers of the American League

Yankees win 3-2

Tonight the Yankees will be facing the Royals in the middle game of their three game series at 7:05 pm ET on MY9 and MLB Network. I have not heard yet if the Yankees offense will be active for the game but I do know that Phil Hughes will be starting for the Yankees against the Royals worst pitcher, Luke Hochevar.

1. Jeter SS
2. Granderson CF
3. Cano 2B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Ibanez DH
6. Swisher RF
7. Teixeira 1B
8. Martin C
9. Wise LF

Royals @ Yankees 5/21/12

UPDATE:

Manny Banuelos' news is in, he is on the DL with left elbow soreness. You never want to hear that... and I will not even say why. I do not want to jinx it... 


Kuroda, approaching 100 pitches in the 5th inning, has allowed three runs on a two run home run and an RBI double to put the Yankees down 3-0. Where has the offense gone?


Yankees lose 6-0

How Do You Say "Consistency" In Japanese?

The Yankees will begin to host a three game series with the Kansas City Royals at the Stadium that George Steinbrenner built (and paid for). Hiroki Kuroda will look for some sort of consistency tonight while facing Felipe Paulino at 7:05 pm ET on YES.

Here is the lineup.

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Robinson Cano 2B
Alex Rodriguez DH
Raul Ibanez LF
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Eric Chavez 3B
Russell Martin C


Down on the farm the Yankees have placed Manny Banuelos and Eduardo Nunez on the DL. We do not know what is wrong with Manny B yet but Nunez has a hand issue.


Also in injury news David Robertson and Brett Gardner are expected to go to Tampa this week to work on their way back to the majors. 

What Is Going On?

George is turning over in his grave.

It's not a secret that the Yankee starters have not exactly been awe-inspiring so far in 2012. They are currently ranked 10th in the AL in ERA (4.16), 11th in the AL in WHIP (1.37), 11th in the AL in batting average against (.261), and 10th in FIP (4.06).

The bats seem to be pretty quiet so far this season, however I see that the team has a batting average of .266, which is 3rd in AL. On top of that the Yankees have a .337 OBP that is 3rd in the younger league, and a .452 SLG that is also 3rd in the AL. Furthermore, the offense has a wOBA of .345, which is actually good for 2nd in the league behind the Rangers. And if you look at total runs scored the Yankees are 5th in the league with 189. What it seems to come down to is a low .231 batting average with RISP, which is 12th in the American League.

"I just don't get it!'

What I'm saying is that scoring is not the problem, and not really a problem in general, even though it seems that way. I think the biggest issue for the team can be summed up by simply looking at the team rankings as far as xFIP.

Burch explained FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, here. Dave Studeman of  The Hardball Times developed xFIP, Expected Fielding Independent Pitching, in order to calculate a pitcher's or teams' FIP using an estimate of how many home runs a team should have allowed. And what really stood out to me was that the Yankee starters are ranked 2nd in the league, with a 3.60.

The Yankee staters have given up a total of 52 home runs, which is 2nd in the AL behind the Minnesota Twins... not the type of company a team wants to have. Taking a look at some more team pitching statistics, the Yankees are 2nd in K% in the AL at 8.6, and have a BB% of 7.9 which is better than the average AL team too.

So it's simple... limit the long balls. The question is... can the staters do that?

"I have no freakin' clue."

Well Phil Hughes currently has the highest HR/9 rate on the team at 2.18. For his career, Phil's HR/9 sits at 1.17, so he should probably see a good correction in that area. Ivan Nova is 2nd on the team in HR/9 at 1.84. Nova's career mark there is 0.95, so there should be fewer bombs off his opponents bats too. Hiroki Kuroda is currently 3rd on the team with a HR/9 of 1.69, which is much higher than his career mark of 0.88. Hiro is a fly ball pitcher though, so more HRs than his career average are expected, but probably not as many as we've seen so far. And CC Sabathia's HR/9 is at 1.12, while his career number in that category is only 0.79 (which is higher than he's ever had in 3 seasons with the Yankees).

So I'm expecting the Yankee starters to give up fewer homers than they have so far, thus helping the team win more ballgames. So at that point the only question mark the team will have will revolve around hitting with runners in scoring position.

"Maybe if I try hitting while holding the bat this way."

Series Awards: vs. Toronto 5/18 - 5/20

Jake Taylor Award
Raul Ibanez - Raul ended up going 5-for-12 in the series, and only one of those hits was a single. He hit a home run in Game 1, and another homer in Game 3. Although he didn't go deep in the middle game of the series, Ibanez did hit a couple of doubles.

Gentry Award
Dewayne Wise - Wise actually started all three games in the series, but could only go 0-for-8. That's bad enough, but Dewayne also struck out 4 times.

Rick Vaughn Award
Andy Pettitte - He wasn't quite spectacular in his first outing, but this time around we saw how dominant the man can still be. In the first game of the series Andy threw 8 innings, giving up 0 runs on 4 hits and a walk, while striking out 9.

Kelner Award
Ivan Nova - Although Boone Logan's performance in Sunday's rubber match was pretty bad, I couldn't ignore another poor start from Ivan Nova. In his last start on the 14th, Ivan gave up 5 runs in 5.1 innings. On Saturday Nova gave up 5 runs again, but went 6 innings. So I guess that's an improvement.

--------------------

The awards are named after one of the best baseball movies of all time... Major League.

Jake Taylor Award - Awarded to the most valuable position player. Named after the hard-nose veteran catcher that, despite making the league minimum, was the heart and soul of the 1989 American League East winning Cleveland Indians.

Gentry Award - Awarded to the least valuable position player. Named after the very first man cut from the 1989 Cleveland Indians, #47 Gentry. A man so insignificant he wasn't even given a first name.

Rick Vaughn - Awarded to the best pitcher in the series. This one is, of course, named after the "Wild Thing". The man that made Clu Haywood look silly in the division deciding game.

Kelner Award - Awarded to the worst pitcher in the series. Named after the Opening Day starter for the '89 Indians. Not a good game for Mr. Kelner, as Indians' announcer Harry Doyle famously quipped "thank God" after Kelner left the game. And yet another bad player without a first name.

Reds @ Yankees 5/20/12

UPDATE:

Raul Ibanez continues his Yankee Stadium dominance with a two run home to put the Yankees up 2-0. 

Shaky 7th inning for CC Sabathia. He allows 2 solo home runs and walked three batters in a row, the last one walking in a run, to give the Reds a 3-2 lead.

A two run 9th inning rally on a miscue by Derek Jeter allows two more insurance runs to score. We go to the bottom of the 9th with a score of 5-2 Reds. 


Reds win 5-2

Going For The Series Win

This should be a fun pitching match up in the series finale between the Yankees and the Reds. Johnny Cueto for the Reds faces off against Yankees ace CC Sabathia. This game will be televised on YES at 1:05 pm ET. Here is the lineup.

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Robinson Cano 2B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Raul Ibanez DH
Nick Swisher RF
Eric Chavez 1B
Dewayne Wise LF
Chris Stewart C

Reds @ Yankees 5/19/12

UPDATE:

Ivan Nova Strikeout Meter

K K K K K K K K K K K K (12)

Ivan Nova has struck out 8 batters in his first 9 outs to begin the game, although he allowed two runs in the process. Only problem is he has thrown 60 pitches through 3 IP.  2-0 Reds

Russell Martin with a solo shot to cut the lead in half, 2-1 Reds


Raul Ibanez doubles down the line to tie the game! 2-2
Joey Votto earns some of that contract with that three run home run, 5-2 Reds.


Jayson Nix hits a solo shot to bring the Yanks closer, 5-3 Reds


Mike Costanzo with the insurance run with that sacrifice fly to make it 6-3 Reds.


Nova finishes with a career high 12 K's. 


We have an Aroldis Chapman sighting....


Swisher RBI double in the 9th... 6-4 Reds


Jayson Nix got his 3rd base hit of the day and 2nd RBI... 6-5 Reds


Yankees rally in the 9th but fall just short. 
Red win 6-5

Time To Test The Ankle

For the first time since Ivan Nova was hit by a come backer with a pitch in the calf/ankle area and then twisted his ankle Ivan Nova will take the mound. He threw a bullpen session on Thursday and said everything was good to go so we will see today. He faces Homer Bailey for the Reds which is fun because when Phil Hughes was coming up him and Homer were always linked so close and always together. The game will be televised on YES and MLB Network and it will be on at 1:05 pm ET.

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Robinson Cano DH
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Raul Ibanez RF
Nick Swisher 1B
Russell Martin C
Dewayne Wise LF
Jayson Nix 2B


No Teixeira for a second straight game... wonder what is up?

Series Awards - @ Toronto 5/16 - 5/17

Jake Taylor Award
Robinson Cano - In the two games against the Jays, Robbie was 2-for-6 with 2 doubles. He also drew one walk in each game, and scored a run in Game 1. As you can see, the Yankee bats weren't electrifying in this series.

Gentry Award
Nick Swisher - Poor Swish takes this award for the 2nd straight series, as he was 0-for-7. Nick reached base just once, drawing a walk in Game 2. FYI, Russell Martin was 0-for-6, while drawing a walk as well. So this was a close one.

Rick Vaughn Award
NONE - The only pitcher to "get the job done" was Freddy Garcia, as he threw one inning in Game 2 without allowing anybody on base. But he didn't strike anybody out, or do anything special in that outing, so I couldn't give it to him.

Kelner Award
Hiroki Kuroda - Kuroda certainly didn't play the part of the "hiro" during his start in Game 1 of the series. After 5 innings of work, he gave up 7 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks. Hiroki did strike out 6 batters, which is nice, but the 3 home runs definitely didn't help him.

--------------------

*The awards are named after one of the best baseball movies of all time... Major League.

Jake Taylor Award - Awarded to the most valuable position player. Named after the hard-nose veteran catcher that, despite making the league minimum, was the heart and soul of the 1989 American League East winning Cleveland Indians.

Gentry Award - Awarded to the least valuable position player. Named after the very first man cut from the 1989 Cleveland Indians, #47 Gentry. A man so insignificant he wasn't even given a first name.

Rick Vaughn - Awarded to the best pitcher in the series. This one is, of course, named after the "Wild Thing". The man that made Clu Haywood look silly in the division deciding game.

Kelner Award - Awarded to the worst pitcher in the series. Named after the Opening Day starter for the '89 Indians. Not a good game for Mr. Kelner, as Indians' announcer Harry Doyle famously quipped "thank God" after Kelner left the game. And yet another bad player without a first name.

Red @ Yankees 5/17/12

UPDATE:

Alex Rodriguez hits a ground ball to score the first run, 1-0 Yanks


Andy Pettitte pitched tonight like he never took a year off. Pitching 8 scoreless innings, only allowing 4 singles, Andy Pettitte did everything he could and more to give his Yankees a win tonight.

Robinson Cano hits an insurance home run to put the Yanks up 2-0

Raul Ibanez hits a home run (at home imagine that) to put the Yankees up 4-0.


Yanks win 4-0

Win 1 Is That Way?

Like I said in my earlier post, welcome to interleague play. The Yankees will host the Reds for what should be a slug fest for the first series in interleague play. Tonight Andy Pettitte will make his 2nd start in 2010 and will face former Red Sox Bronson Arroyo, which should be fun. The game will be televised on YES at 7:05 pm ET.

1. Jeter SS
2. Granderson CF
3. Cano 2B
4. A-Rod 3B
5. Ibanez RF
6. Swisher 1B
7. Chavez DH
8. Wise LF
9. Stewart C