These are not the Yankees of old. They are not going to spend 300 million dollars this winter on
Cole, Strasburg,and Rendon. Though signing these three guys would probably put the Yankees “over the edge” and bring them their first world series in 11 years, it is not smart for the future. They would end up with obsolete players in their late thirties who don’t even play anymore (Ellsbury, end of a-rod, etc). The way to build a winning team has changed since George was in charge. Bringing up young breakout stars and trading for high ceiling, young, and controllable players from other teams is the new strategy. The Yankees have had a very seamless youth movement. The Baby Bombers have taken over, during the regular season at least. These Baby Bombers will eventually hit arbitration and free agency and the Yankees, even with their big wallet, won’t be able to retain them all. Keeping a balance of veterans and young controllable players is how teams have recently won the world series. This brings us back to this offseason. I already outlined who I would target on the offense trade market. So this brings us now to the pitching side of things.
Through a lot of thought and consideration, I have just about came to a conclusion for my predictions for the Yankees this winter on the pitching side. The Yankees have needed another ace for the last couple years and this would have supposedly made the difference. The Yankees missed on Verlander, Scherzer, Corbin, and trading for Cole, and this is why the Astros and Nationals have a world series win and the Yankees don’t. I don’t believe in saying the Yankees would’ve won the world series with one other guy because there are a lot of other variables that have to be factored in. If the best team on paper always won, then games wouldn’t be played. The Astros would’ve just been handed the world series title. There too much chance and other factors to really predict baseball and that's what's great about it. So all of you guys out there who think the Yankees will sign Cole, don’t get your hopes up. If the Yankees do wind up signing Cole, I would not be disappointed though. I would give it about a 25-30% chance of happening. Who knows, maybe "Ninja Cash" will swoop in last second and strike a deal with Gerrit. Anyways, here's my big predictions. "Expert prediction" if you insist.
This offseason I think the Yankees will sign Zack Wheeler and trade for Robbie Ray.
Zack Wheeler
Zack Wheeler hasn’t exactly had a great career so far, but he looks like a breakout candidate. A lot
of analysts have compared his stuff to Cole, though the naked eye doesn't really show that. He has good velocity, spin rate and low exit velocity. Hopefully the Yankees sign a pitching coach who can help him reach his full potential. Maybe a change of scenery is what he needs. He has the talent, maybe he just needs a change of mindset, maybe a winning mindset. Something he can’t get with the Mets. The Yankees had a lot of interest in him around the trade deadline, but trades between the Mets and Yankees never really come into fruition. He has been roughed up a bunch in his career so he won't be as expensive as a Cole but talent evaluators say he has a lot of talent so he will get a good amount of money. He isn't quite the true ace that the Yankees have supposedly been trying to get but he does bring a good amount of potential to the table.
Prediction:
Wheeler signs with the Yankees for 4 years and $76 Million
Robbie Ray
The Yankees have always been a big fan of Robbie Ray and so have I. He has good velo and good
offspeed pitches. He is another pitcher who hasn’t quite reached his potential yet. The Yankees have
had a lot of interest in him last offseason and near the trade deadline this past season. I think it has
been a matter of the Dbacks thinking they are in postseason contention but they really are not. Don't
let me get into a whole debate about the 2nd wild card messing up the balance of the league and
making for less trade deadline deals because no teams think they are sellers because they think
they can sneak into the second wild card spot. Anyways, Robbie Ray has high strikeouts and plus
stuff he just lacks control sometimes and if the Yankees new pitching coach can help him reach his
potential he could be one of the top starting pitchers in the game. These two moves are going to be
really impacted by whoever the Yankees decide to make their new pitching coach because these are
two potential really good pitchers if the right person is their coach. No pressure Yankees, but you better make the right decision.
Mock Trade:
Yankees Get:
Robbie Ray
Dbacks Get:
Michael King
Albert Abreu
Clarke Schmidt
If you have predictions for who you think the Yankees will get this offseason, let me know who in the comment section below.
Yankees split a 4-Game Series with the Rays. They still have a comfortable lead at 6.5 games. Yankees offense hasn’t really done anything the past 2 days. James Paxton gave the Yankees a quality start going 6 innings striking out 11. The lone run came off of Gardner’s solo shot.
Yankees have had an incredible 1st half to the season. With all the injuries taken place this year, it’s incredible that the Yankees are in 1st place & by a good lead. Injuries include Luis Severino, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Clint Frazier, Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird & the list goes on. Yankees had an All-Star team of players on the Injured list in 2019. Yankees did acquire OF Cameron Maybin, who has done an excellent job since being acquired. Although, he went on the IL.
As the trading deadline looms, the obvious need is starting pitching. Potential targets include: Tigers’ Matthew Boyd, Indians’ Trevor Bauer, San Francisco Giants’ Madison Bumgarner, BlueJays’ Marcus Stroman, Mets’ Zack Wheeler etc. A few of these options are unlikely to happen but never rule out any trades. Yankees may also look at bullpen help as the situation with Dellin Betances is unknown. There should be a abundant of relievers made available as teams signal they’re out of contention.
It’s been a great 1st half & there’s a lot to look forward to in the 2nd half. Yankees will continue to
look to acquire pitcher(s) & continue their quest to win a World Series in 2019.
Yankees won their 2nd series against the Rays in 1 week. They take 2 out of 3 games & have moved back into 1st place an 0.5 game up on Tampa. It was a great series & a lot of fun to watch!
Yankees went with the opener today & Chad Green started it off. He went 1 inning but gave up 2 runs along with 2 strikeouts. Yankees then turned to Cortes Jr, he went 4 innings giving up a big 3 run-shot. He settled down striking out 6 with 2 walks. Adam Ottavino & Chance Adams both combined for 3 scoreless innings with 5 strikeouts. Big confidence builder for Adams throwing those scoreless innings, as he looks to re-gain his stock.
Yankees offense broke out in the 6th inning scoring 7 runs in that inning. DJ LeMahieu keeps hitting with 3 hits one being a solo shot. Gardner also had 3 hits one bring a solo shot as well. Offense scored 13 runs on 12 hits today. Estrada had a huge pinch-hit bases clearing double.
It was a fun series as the Yankees look to stay in 1st place as the go to Baltimore to face the Orioles in a 4-game set. Since April 16th, the Yankees are 22-8, best in all of baseball. Yankees have J.A Happ going tomorrow as he looks to find his way to get back to the pitcher he was last year when he was acquired by New York.
Jon Heyman reporting Yankees will be interested in starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel once his draft pick comp drops after this years draft. As we know Severino is likely out until the second of the season. Although the Yankees might have another starter return soon in Jordon Montgomery who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Draft is June 4th so it’s not far away, Yankees do have to make a decision soon. As June nears teams start selling as the new deadline is in place. It'd be interesting what type of contract the Yankees offer, 1 year or a multi-year deal. Another idea is just to trade for a starter or just continue to stay with German in the rotation who has been great.
Keuchel provides depth, veteran-ship & innings to the Yankees. Since 2015 his CY year, he’s averaged 200 innings & has a ERA of 3.41 over the past 4 seasons. He’s a ground ball pitcher which is great for the Yankees. His ground ball rate in 2018 was 53.7%. Interested to see if anything develops between the Yankees & Dallas Kuechel.
It was a great outing by Paxton tonight. Going 8 scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts & 1 walk. Huge confidence builder after his first 2 starts weren’t ones to remember. Paxton becomes the first Yankees’ pitcher with 12+ strikeouts & 2 hits or less vs Boston at home. Paxton can now build on this start, it was one to remember.
Chris Sale continues his struggles for the 2019 season. He did go 5 innings but gave up 4 earned runs to the Yankees lineup. Yankees took advantage with 3 homeruns by Frazier, Tauchman & Frazier. Tauchman had a break out game with 2 hits & 4 RBI’s. Urshela had an insane defensive play, throwing from his knees to nail Betts.
It was a great game for the Yankees winning 8-0 over Boston. Confidence for the Yankees as they look to win the Series tomorrow. J.A Happ pitching tomorrow, he’s looking to find it as he’s had rough starts to the season.
Yankees offense exploded putting out 15 runs today. Gary Sanchez & Clint Frazier both homered multiple times today. Sanchez had 3 & Frazier had 2. Sanchez’s first career 3 homerun game and now leads MLB in homeruns with Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger with 6 . Frazier went 4 for 4 today. Torres continues to rake against the Orioles with 2 hits 1 being a homerun.
Yankees starter German pitched great today. He went 6 innings while just giving up 2 runs and 3 strikeouts also. Tarpley & Cessa came in both to close the game out. Great pitching by the Yankees today.
Yankees look to continue their winning streak has they head to Houston. Tanaka, Loaisiga & Paxton are the starters for the Yankees as each looks to build on their starts and the teams momentum.
Yankees go on a 6-game road trip, first stop Baltimore. As the team struggled during its opening week at home just winning 2 of its first 6 games. It was time to start this road trip on a good note and get a win against the Baltimore Orioles.
(Photo Credit: YES Network/Twitter)
Paxton struggled in the 1st inning giving up 3 runs. He eventually settled down going 5.1 IP with 9 satrikeouts and giving up 4 earned runs in total. Yankees bullpen then took over with Kahnle, Britton & Chapman to close it.
Yankees offense did show up today, blasting 4 homeruns. Torres took charge of the day going 4-4 with 2 homeruns, which is his 3rd career multi-homerun game. Sanchez connected with his 3rd homerun of the season. Voit now has 8 hits at Camden Yards with 4 of them being homeruns as he blasts a 3-run shot in the 9th to had insurance runs.
Baseball has been one of the backbones of the American culture for around 160 years. It has evolved as has the world, but the basis of the game is still the same. The commissioner Rob Manfred is very innovative and trying to make the game quicker and appeal to younger people. When most of the outcomes of an a bat is one of the three true outcomes, of a home run, strikeout or walk there is not much action. Hitters focus on launch angle and hitting the ball as hard as possible. They don’t try to get on base in order to create runs. Through this evolution of the game from the 19th century to the 21st, baseball has had at least one consistent thing, though it is a widely disputed topic. The unwritten rules of baseball and the things you absolutely can not do on a baseball field. Older baseball fans tend to have a more traditional perspective on this while the new players want to celebrate their accomplishments and show more personality. They play with a little bit of flare and this makes some veteran players and managers upset. Here is a rundown of some of the most present and disputed unwritten rules.
Never say the word no hitter or perfect game while it's happening. This unwritten rule is more of a superstition. When a pitcher is throwing a perfect game you probably don’t want to mess with them or say something that make them overthink what they are doing. Most of the time they are in sync with the catcher and absolutely dealing. In my personal experiences about a year ago I was throwing a no hitter in a High School game. I did not know I had a no hitter because I walked a couple of hitters and we made a few errors in the first inning. Of course one of my teammates noticed and told me. I told him that because he told me, the first batter in the next inning would hit a gapper. Of course the first pitch in the next inning I gave up a gapper between the center and left fielder. The pitch limit in the league was 95 and I was relatively close so I was unlikely to complete it but it still got on my nerves that he had to say that. Not saying those words is a just a baseball thing that not many people understand but it just has been around forever and makes sense. When watching a Yankees game on TV, Michael Kay and David Cone have said the word, and no Yankee pitcher has thrown a no hitter since the 90s. Is this a coincidence? Maybe.
When a team is up by a lot or down by a lot, base runners should never steal.When a team is winning or losing by six or more runs if a base runner attempts to steal a base. When a team is up by ten runs it is seen as disrespectful if a runner attempts to steal a base. The pitcher is already struggling and the runner stealing is just messing with the other team even more. Stealing the base is not going to impact the outcome of the game most likely and is unnecessary. Older players take exception to this. They may throw at a batter and this creates an even bigger problem as mentioned below. When a team is losing badly, the runner definitely does not want to make an out stealing a base. The probability of them being out definitely outweighs the importance of the extra out. The team needs a bloop and a blast at least to get back into the game, the stolen base is not going to help. In the major leagues, stealing bases is becoming an even less part of the game. Why would a player on the Yankees like Aaron Hicks risk running into an out when you have Judge,Stanton and Sanchez hitting behind you. It just doesn’t make sense to take the chance unless it is a 95% chance of being successful. This rule makes sense and should continue to be exercised.
Another unwritten rule is that you should not swing in a 3-0 count unless you for a fact know that you are going to put it 40 rows deep to straight center. This rule makes sense. The player needs to make sure he is going to get a hit. In a 3-0 count the hitter has the greatest chance of getting on base, which is the most important part of hitting. If the pitcher throws three straight balls, the probability of him throwing a strike is probably not that good. If they groove one right down the middle, hit it 450 feet. I do hate to see times like Gary Sanchez in the 2017 ALCS. He was in a 3-0 count against Justin Verlander in the 6th inning. He got a curve ball in a 3-0 count and rolled it over to get Verlander out of the jam. The team is was down 3 runs in the 6th inning and missed out on a chance for a rally. Verlander went on the throw a complete game and the Astros won that game by five runs. The Astros won the series in 7 games. That could’ve been the difference in winning the World Series for the Yankees. This rule should just be using the player using common sense. Here is a link to a clip of that game https://www.mlb.com/video/how-verlander-got-out-of-key-jam/c-1864816583?tid=6479266
Never admire a home run or show up the other team. Here we go, we’re to the one you have all been waiting for. When a baseball player hits home run, it is one of the biggest accomplishments in all of sports. Pitchers are throwing harder than ever with more movement. The skill it takes to make contact is downright amazing and to be able to hit a baseball four hundred feet with a piece of wood is incredible. The reaction time and decision making of a hitter in the majors is unlike that of any other sport. If the home run is in the playoffs or a walk off, that makes it even more dramatic. So allow players to bat flip if they just made history or did something they’ve been working at for their whole life. It makes the game more fun and entertaining when someone hits a moonshot and just throws their bat in the air and is excited. Luke Voits’ little hop is one of the cooler things you can see in a Yankees game. Now to showing up the other team. If it is a game where there is a large gap in the score and you bat flip, that is uncalled for. If a player bat flips and the ball is caught or hits the warning track, that is also not cool. If a player watches the ball after they hit it but they are moving up the line and not obnoxiously staring down the pitcher that is fine. Younger players in the game today bring an energy that some older fans and players don’t like or understand. For example when Francisco Lindor hit a home run in his homeland of Puerto Rico in front of all his friends, family and fans, that was one of the cooler moments in baseball history. Bat flips make the crowd go crazy, make the game more dramatic and are just fun for the game. So keep on bat flipping, they are pretty awesome.
Do not celebrate a big strikeout on the mound. Winner takes all game, in a jam, the pitcher gets a huge strike out…… That’s all I have to say about that.
Don't make the first or last out of an inning at third base. When you have no outs, a player should not take the risk of trying to get to third. There is at least three more chances for the runner to score from second base. A single usually scores a player from second so why should a player run the risk of getting an out at third. Also, with two outs, the risk of going to third should not be taken because they can’t get home from a sac fly with two outs and if they are at second base they can score from a single. This rule makes sense, a player should have common sense when advancing an extra base.
Don’t bunt to break up a no hitter.If it is the third inning and a player bunts to break up a no hitter that is fine. If it's the ninth inning, someone is getting thrown at. In my opinion a no hitter should be broken but by a solid base hit in the gap, not a little blooper or a bunt. It would be very annoying to lose a no hitter because a guy on the other team wants to be a jerk and sort of cheat to get on base. Don’t get me wrong, if it is a 0-0 game and the team is trying to win by bunting, that is fine. That’s trying to win the game and being competitive.
Don’t show a pitcher that the hit by pitch hurt. Just rub some dirt on it and you’ll be okay. Getting hit by a fast pitch can really hurt, and pitchers throw faster now than ever. It really depends where it hits you. If it hits a very muscular part of your body like your thigh, it's probably not going to hurt that much. If it hits your elbow, wrist, back, head, ankle or where the sun doesn’t shine, it will hurt a lot. This is more of a thing of the old days where men did not want to show weakness and ruin their pride. It is okay to admit that something really hurt. MLB players have virtually no time to react so, if your afraid of getting hit by a pitch don’t play baseball.
Retaliating for HBPs. When a teammate gets hit by a pitch, intentionally or unintentionally. Some if not all pitchers take it personally. They are not going to let the other team's pitcher, get away with hitting your guy. Sometimes they just throw some chin music, or back them off the plate if it was unintentional, but if it was on purpose, you have to hit him. There is a certain way to do this. The pitcher should never throw above the letters, because that’s outright dangerous. These matches can go back and forth and cause a brawl sometimes. This is very entertaining but who wants their favorite player to be on the DL (injured player list, my bad) because of a preventable injury.
Don’t show up your teammates. Teammates are friends and family. If someone drops a ball or doesn’t perform well, they shouldn’t be made fun of or shown up. The major lesson in baseball is respect.
Don’t throw pitchers breaking balls. All I have to say about this is have a universal DH.
Baseball is the greatest sport in the world, and should be played with character and excitement. Let the kids play. They are doing what they love and if you take away their personality the sport of baseball would lose the interest of many fans.
Spring training has finally arrived! Catchers and pitchers have reported to camp, and I reassure you: baseball will be back before you know it. Here are my pre-spring-training predictions for how the Yankees 25-man roster will turn out:
C (2)
Starter: Gary Sanchez
There is no doubt that 2018 was a struggle for Yankees injury-ridden backstop Gary Sanchez, whose batting line certainly left a lot to be desired…
PA: 374
HR: 18
AVG: .186
OBP: .291
FanGraphs’ Depth Charts projects Sanchez to rebound big time in 2019 (31 HRs and .245 AVG in 131 games).
Backup: Austin Romine
While Romine’s offensive output (.244 AVG and .295 OBP but did hit for some power — 10 HRs) was unspectacular in 2019, he played very well defensively; Romine was 6 defensive runs saved above average (6 DRS per FanGraphs).
1B (2)
Starter: Luke Voit
Luke Voit was one of the biggest surprises in the 2018 season. He was involved in a trade (from the Cardinals) that was initially deemed a minor move, but boy did it pay off for the Yanks. Voit put up video-game numbers…
PA: 148
AVG: .333
OBP: .405
HR: 14
RBI: 33
Strikeouts remained an issue (26.4% K rate), but it didn’t seem to hinder Voit at all.
Backup: Greg Bird
Greg Bird has struggled mightily the last two seasons; in both of which he was was heavily plagued with a variety of injuries. In 2018, he hit for a .199 AVG and had an OBP of .286. Bird still offers above average power (11 HRs in 311 PAs) and will provide Aaron Boone with a power bat off the bench.
2B (1)
Starter: Gleyber Torres
Torres’ much anticipated 2018 rookie campaign couldn’t have gone any better. He hit 24 HRs and put up a .271 AVG and a .340 OBP in 484 PAs. His defense at 2B was a tab below average (-1 DRS).
SS (1)
Starter: Troy Tulowitzki
With Gregorious missing the first few months of the season due to TJ surgery, Tulo is penciled in as the starting SS, assuming he can stay healthy (and that is a big “if”), something he has never been able to do.
3B (1)
Starter: Miguel Andujar
Andujar had a huge breakout last year, putting up ridiculous numbers as a rookie…
PA: 606
AVG: .297
OBP: .328
HR: 27
RBI: 92
2B: 47
Unfortunately, his fielding stats were on the opposite end of the spectrum…
DRS: -25
UZR/150: -24.5
E (errors): 15
RF (1)
Starter: Aaron Judge
Photo: Bill Kostroun/AP Images
Although Judge regressed in nearly every category in 2018, he was still an extremely valuable player (5.0 WAR)…
Games – 2017: 155; 2018: 112
AVG – 2017: .284; 2018: .278
OBP – 2017: .422; 2018: .392
HR – 2017: 52; 2018: 27
RBI: 2017: 114; 2018: 67
Judge is not only the face of this franchise; he is arguably one of the faces of the MLB.
CF (1)
Starter: Aaron Hicks
Aaron Hicks is one of the most under-appreciated players in all of baseball. Despite hitting for an average south of .250, Hicks generated a lot of walks (15.5%) and power (27 HRs), and he even stole 11 bags. Historically, he’s been a very good defender in CF (in 2018, he put up a -3 DRS, atypical of his past performance in CF). Hicks accrued nearly 5 WAR (4.9).
LF (2)
Starter: Brett Gardner
Veteran outfielder Brett Gardner continues to perform at an adequate level. His average was down quite a bit last year (went from .264 to .236), but he still stole 11 bases and added 12 big flies. He remains a tough out (10.7% BB rate and 17.6% K rate) and should get the majority of ABs at LF (vs RHP).
Backup: Clint Frazier
Clint Frazier was sidelined with a concussion, which caused him to miss a large duration of the season. He hit really well when he was healthy…
AAA
PA: 216
AVG: .311
OBP: .389
HR: 10
MLB
PA: 41
AVG: .265
OBP: .390
HR: 0
Though his AAA strikeout rate was high (24.1% in AAA), he frequently drew walks (10.6% BB rate in AAA).
As of right now, I see Brett Gardner as the starter; it’s hard to know what to expect from Frazier when he hasn’t played in so long. I suspect Frazier will start against LHPs, and he could play his way to a starting spot if he performs well.
DH (1)
Starter: Giancarlo Stanton
Photo: Mike Stobe/Getty Images
Stanton’s first year with the Yanks was solid but did not come anywhere near his spectacular 2017 season (59 HRs and .281 AVG) with the Marlins. Stanton slugged 38 HRs and hit only .266, accumulating 4+ WAR last year.
UTL (1)
DJ LeMahieu
Free-agent acquisition DJ LeMahieu will likely see a fair share of time all around the diamond. Last year, he hit a career-high 15 HRs and put up a .276 AVG and .321 OBP, also adding 6 SBs. LeMahieu is more renowned for his phenomenal defense; he was 18 defensive runs saved above average (18 DRS per FanGraphs). DJ will surely be an upgrade over what Neil Walker accomplished last season.
SP (5)
No. 1: Luis Severino
Photo: Elsa/Getty Images
Though Severino’s performance deteriorated in the 2nd half, he still put up excellent numbers, and he is the clear ace of this staff…
IP: 191.1
W: 19
K/9: 10.35
BB/9: 2.16
ERA: 3.39
WAR: 5.7
No. 2: James Paxton
The Yankees acquired southpaw James Paxton from the Seattle Mariners early in the offseason. His biggest issue in the past couple years has been his inability to stay healthy. His numbers last year were very good, and he even pitched a no-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays…
IP: 160.1
K/9: 11.68
BB/9: 2.36
ERA: 3.76
WAR: 3.8
No. 3: Masahiro Tanaka
Starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka bounced back from a rough 2017 campaign. His ERA dropped from 4.74 to to 3.75. He continued to generate plenty of swings and misses (K/9: 9.17), and he yielded very few free passes (BB/9: 2.02). HRs were still an issue (HR/9: 1.44) and are likely to be a problem going forward.
No. 4: J.A. Happ
After trading for Happ at the trade deadline in 2018, the Yanks have must have liked what they had seen, as they signed him as FA this offseason. He was a very dependable and productive pitcher last year…
IP: 177.2
K/9: 9.78
BB/9: 2.58
ERA: 3.65
WAR: 3.2
No. 5: CC Sabathia
Sabathia continues to pitch at a high level (which is quite frankly remarkable considering he is 38), as conveyed by his 2018 stat-line…
IP: 153
K/9: 8.24
BB/9: 3.00
ERA: 3.65
WAR: 2.5
RP (7)
CL: Aroldis Chapman
Chapman struck out over 16 batters per 9 IP, the highest rate in the majors. His walk rate took a step back however, as Aroldis gave up over 5 walks per 9 IP. Overall, he was very effective in 2018, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.9 WAR.
SU: Dellin Betances
Photo: N.Y. Post: Charles Wenzelberg
Dellin Betandes was arguably the Yankees best reliever in 2018 and one of the best relievers in baseball from June on…
March 29 – May 29
IP: 23
K/9: 15.65
BB/9: 3.52
HR/9: 1.57
ERA: 4.30
June 1 – September 28
IP: 43.2
K/9: 15.46
BB/9: 3.50
HR/9: 0.62
ERA: 1.85
RP: Zack Britton
The Yankees brought back Zack Britton in hopes of further bolstering there all-mighty bullpen. He is looking to rebound from a tough 2018 season in which he was recovering from an injury. He walked around 4.6 batters / 9 IP and his strikeout rate was only 7.5 (K/9).
RP: Chad Green
Chad Green’s success from 2017 carried over into 2018. He struck out over 11 batters per 9 IP and he walked under 2 batters per 9 IP. His ERA was 2.5 and he pitched 75.2 innings. One possible area of concern going forward for Green is his susceptibility to the long ball. His HR/9 doubled from 2017 to 2018 (2017 HR/9: 0.52; 2018 HR/9: 1.07). On a positive note, Green has the ability to last multiple innings, something that sets him apart from his peers.
RP: Adam Ottavino
Ottavino is undoubtedly a fantastic addition to the Yanks pen. He improved in every single statistical category in 2018 (after a super rough 2017 season)…
2017
IP: 53.1
K/9: 10.63
BB/9: 6.58
HR/9: 1.35
ERA: 5.06
WAR: -0.1
2018
IP: 77.2
K/9: 12.98
BB/9: 4.17
HR/9: 0.58
ERA: 2.43
WAR: 2.0
RP: Jonathan Holder
Holder broke out in 2018, posting solid numbers across the board. He struck out over 8 batters per 9 IP and walked 2.59 batters per 9 IP. His ERA was a smidge over 3.00, and he accrued 1.3 WAR in 2018. Like Chad Green, Holder is capable of going multiple innings.
RP: Jonathan Loaisiga
Loaisiga performed exceptionally well in 2018, especially in the minors…
A+: 20 IP, 11.7 K/9, 0.45 BB/9, 0 HR/9, 52% GBs, and 1.35 ERA
AA: 34.1 IP, 10.49 K/9, 1.57 BB/9, 1.57 HR/9, 38.7% GBs, and 3.93 ERA
Although Loaisiga had an ERA over 5.00 in 24.2 IP in the majors, other metrics suggest he may have been misfortunate to some degree…
FIP: 3.53
xFIP: 2.95
His strikeout rate was very high (12.04 K/9), as was his walk rate (4.38 BB/9). Loaisiga will be best utilized as a multi-inning reliever.
Other candidates to make 25-man roster…
Jacoby Ellsbury: due to plantar fasciitis, he will not be reporting to ST until March. Ellsbury missed all of last season due to injury and I suspect that one of two things happen…
Ellsbury will start 2019 on the IL, OR
Ellsbury will demonstrate he is healthy and the Yankees will look to trade him (no room for him with Judge in RF, Hicks in CF, and Gardner + Frazier are superior over him)
Tommy Kahnle: he was incredible in 2017 (K/9: 13.79; BB/9: 2.44; ERA: 2.59), but he was atrocious in 2018 (K/9: 11.57; BB/9: 5.79; ERA: 6.56). He is out of minor league options, so if he pitches well in ST, I suspect the Yankees will look to move him
Domingo German: his 5.57 ERA sends off a distorted message. He really did well in some areas of the game (K/9: 10.72; BB/9: 3.47; FIP: 4.39; xFIP: 3.94) but struggled in others (BB/9: 3.47 and HR/9: 1.58).
Stephen Tarpley: he had a 3.00 ERA in 9 MLB IP. His AAA numbers were very good as well…
IP: 34
K/9: 10.06
BB/9: 2.91
GB%: 66.3
ERA: 2.65
Projected Lineups
vs LHP
CF Aaron Hicks
RF Aaron Judge
DH Giancarlo Stanton
3B Miguel Andujar
C Gary Sanchez
1B Luke Voit
2B Gleyber Torres
LF Clint Frazier
SS Troy Tulowitzki
vs RHP
CF Aaron Hicks
RF Aaron Judge
DH Giancarlo Stanton
3B Miguel Andujar
C Gary Sanchez
2B Gleyber Torres
1B Luke Voit
SS Troy Tulowtizki
LF Brett Gardner
Thanks for reading. Feel free to copy and paste the lineup and roster slots/spots below and make your own predictions… and be sure to follow me @MaxGold81356590
One pitcher the Yankees should definitely look to trade for is 29-year-old Madison Bumgarner. His value diminished, as he has regressed significantly over the last three years, two of which have been plagued by injuries. In 2017, Bumgarner missed nearly three months of the season due to an injury that occurred when he was riding a dirt bike. This past season, Bumgarner missed all of April and May with a fractured left hand (off of a line drive that struck him during a preseason game against the Royals). Presumably, his recent drop in performance can be attributed to a combination of the aforementioned fluke injuries and age decline (which has subsequently led to decreased FB velocity and potency). The stat-line (all metrics according to Fangraphs) below provides evidence for Mad Bum’s recent reduction in effectiveness…
In 2018, Mad Bum threw his cutter 35% of the time and his fastball 34.2% (basically the same frequency). If he had implemented the following pitch mix (using more CBs and cutters in lieu of his FB), he would have indisputably pitched more effectively…
Cutter: 50% (2018 – 11.8 SwStr%)
Curveball: 37.2% (2018 – 11.7 SwStr%)
Changeup: 8.6% (2018 – 8.9 SwStr%)
Fastball: 4.2% (2018 – 4.7 SwStr%)
We can now estimate what his overall SwStr%, HRs against, and AVG against would have looked like last year with this seemingly improvised pitch repertoire. For the purpose of this investigation, let’s assume the 2018 SwStr%, HRs against, and AVG against for a particular pitch remain constant regardless of the change in its usage).
That SwStr% is 6.4% higher than his 2018 mark and would have put Bumgarner in a tie for the 2nd highest overall SwStr% (Corbin: 15.6 SwStr% and Scherzer: 16.2%).
and
2018 HRs against: 14 HRs
# of HRs conceded / 100 cutters: 0.69541 (5 HRs off cutter in 2018 / 719 cutters thrown)
# of HRs conceded / 100 fastballs: 1.13798 (8 HRs off fastball in 2018 / 703 fastballs thrown)
# of HRs conceded / 100 curveballs thrown: 0.21978 (1 HR off curveball in 2018 / 455 curveballs thrown)
# of HRs conceded / 100 curveballs thrown: 0 (0 HRs off changeup in 2018 / 157 changeups thrown)
In summary, if Mad Bum had utilized the improved pitch mix, he would have likely…
Gotten more strikeouts
Given up fewer HRs
Given up fewer hits
A trade of Bumgarner represents the best opportunity for San Francisco to obtain high-end young players as the franchise begins what it hopes will be a rapid rebuild under new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi.
We will integrate Fangraphs’ new Update to Prospect Valuation system in order to most precisely formulate realistic compensation that the Yankees could conceivably part with (for Madison Bumgarner).
results are presented in present-day WAR and translated to a rough dollar figure based on $9 million as the cost of a win on the free-agent market. Keep in mind that the dollar figure isn’t a direct value, but rather equivalent value of a prospect relative to the free-agent market. Part of the reason prospects have such tremendous value is due to the suppressed salaries permitted by the CBA until a player has reached six years of service time. By translating the WAR figure into a monetary value, we can compare the value of prospects with the values of major-league players and their contracts. These values likely roughly approximate what an individual player might get as a signing bonus if he were declared a free agent and teams could only provide a signing bonus instead of a long-term contract.
Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards
In other words, Fangraphs assigned a monetary value for all minor league prospects (based on how former prospects belonging to that tier / rank performed during the first 9 seasons of their baseball career [“including the season in which a prospect was ranked”]). These values are comparable to current major leaguers (calculated through incorporating WAR [$9 million / 1 WAR] and the cost of the player’s contract).
The calculations for Madison Bumgarner’s surplus monetary value can be seen below…
(2.1 WAR projection [per Steamer] for 2019 * $9 million / 1 WAR) – $12 million (salary for 2019) = $18.9 million – $12 million = $6.9 million in surplus value
The chances of the Giants netting a top 100 prospect for Mad Bum are improbable, especially when you consider that Anthony Banda, who is ranked 131st on Fangraphs’ top 131 list, is worth $9 million in monetary value. The Giants would likely have to take back some salary on Bumgarner’s contract. The majority of the prospects that are excluded from Fangraphs’ top 131 list (which can be viewed at the bottom of their Update to Prospect Valuation article) are likely on the table, with the lone exceptions being position player (hitters) prospects who are graded 45+ FV (on the 20-80 scouting scale); they have a monetary value of $8 million.
New York Yankees
The Giants are bound to be interested in RHP Jonathan Loaisiga ($6 million). On the surface, his 5+ ERA in around 25 IP gives a bad impression; however, it is important to note that Loaisiga’s FIP and xFIP were 3.53 and 2.95, respectively. He also struck out over 12 batters per 9 innings and generated GBs at an above average clip (49.2%). Loaisiga’s minor league numbers in 2018 were spectacular (though they did drop off some after a promotion to AA)…
A+
IP: 20
K/9: 11.7
BB/9: 0.45
HR/9: 0
GB%: 52%
ERA: 1.35
AA
IP: 34.1
K/9: 10.49
BB/9: 1.57
HR/9: 1.57
GB%: 38.7%
ERA: 3.93
Loaisiga’s upside is that of a #3 starter, but it appears to me that he may be better utilized as a multi-inning reliever. His ERA as a SP the 1st time through the order (10 IP) is 0.90, and his ERA the 2nd time (7 IP) is 6.43.
In addition to Jonathan Loaisiga, the Giants could ask for $0.9 million or a 40 FV pitching prospect ($1 million)…
RHP Trevor Stephan
RHP Matt Sauer
RHP Domingo Acevedo
RHP Chance Adams
RHP Garrett Whitlock
RHP Nolan Martinez
Of the players on the list above, Domingo Acevedo would likely be the best fit. He had a 2.92 ERA in 64.2 IP at AA. His walk rate was a tad below 3 BB / 9 IP, and he struck out just over 7 batters / 9 IP. He had a solid 1.10 WHIP at AA. Acevedo’s upper 90s FB would presumably play up in the bullpen, where he is likely to land.
The proposal we have come up with reads as follows…
The San Francisco Giants trade LHP Madison Bumgarner to the New York Yankees for RHP Jonathan Loaisiga and RHP Domingo Acevedo
Would you do this trade? Comment below.
Thanks for reading and if you're interested in reading the full article (includes what it could take for the Brewers and Mets to trade for Mad Bum), click here. Feel free to follow me on Twitter (to receives updates when I release new content) @MaxGold81356590 and make sure to check out my website (Max's Sporting Studio).
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/59673395/956251084.jpg.0.jpg)
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46444862/usa-today-7878409.0.jpg)
