Estimating the Value of Contract Extensions: Dellin Betances and Didi Gregorius

In this investigation, we will attempt to approximate the salary (dependent on the length of the deal) teams will offer their impending free agents (in their efforts to extend them) through encompassing age decline and the average cost / 1 WAR on the FA market.

In Neil Weinberg’s Beginner’s Guide To Aging Curves, he explains that…

“a basic rule of thumb is that once a player gets to 30, you sort of expect them to lose about 0.5 WAR per year of value due to aging. Some players will age better or worse, but that’s an average estimate”.

It is important to note that we will use a decline of 0.3 WAR for relief pitchers because they age differently than SPs and position player.

Another one of his articles analyzed the price teams pay per 1 WAR on the FA market. Neil Weinberg asserts that…

$/WAR is basically a measurement of how much teams are paying for players on the free agent market according to how many wins they will add over replacement level players. Right now, we think teams are paying about $8 million per every WAR they add to their roster. For example, a 2 WAR player signed for three years would theoretically provide his team with 6 WAR, so a team might want to pay him anything up to $48 million. If the team pays less than $8 million for each expected WAR, we call this a “good deal” and if they pay more, we say they “overpaid.”

Although the players we will be looking at — Dellin Betances and Didi Gregorius — are not yet FAs, they will presumably insist on pay comparable (relatively speaking) to what they could have gotten on the FA market (if they had opted to go that route). 

Dellin Betances

Photo: Bill Kostroun

30-year-old flame-throwing relief pitcher Dellin Betances is due to hit free agency after this season. He has been stellar for the Yanks, putting up excellent numbers from 2014 – 18…

1. His worst ERA during that time was 3.08 (2016) and his best was 1.40 (2014)
2. His worst K/9 during that time was 13.50 (2014) and his best was 15.53 (2016 and 2018)
3. His worst BB/9 during that time was 6.64 (2017) and his best was 2.40 (2014)
4. His worst WHIP during that time was 1.22 (2017) and his best was 0.78 (2014)
5. His worst WAR during that time was 1.3 (2017) and is best was 3.2 (2014)

Weighted average of his WAR: (0.3 * 2018 WAR) + (0.25 * 2017 WAR) + (0.2 * 2016 WAR) + (0.15 * 2015 WAR) + (0.1 * 2014 WAR) = 0.54 + 0.325 + 0.58 + 0.36 + 0.32 = 2.1

For the purpose of this investigation, let’s assume Betances loses 0.3 WAR annually starting in the 2020 season and that the cost per 1 WAR is $8 million…

2020: 1.8 WAR [Weighted average of his WAR in last 5 years – 0.3]; $14.4 million

2021 (age 33 season): 1.5 WAR; $12 million

2022: 1.2 WAR; $9.6 million

2023 (age 35 season): 0.9 WAR; $7.2 million

2024: 0.6 WAR; $4.8 million

Betances contract possibilities:

• 1 yr, $14.4 million
• 2 yr, $26.4 million
• 3 yr, $36 million
• 4 yr, $43.2 million
• 5 yr, $48 million

Prediction: 5 yr, $48 million

Didi Gregorius

Photo: Getty Images

SS Didi Gregorius is scheduled to become a FA after the 2019 season. Due to TJ surgery, he will be sidelined for the first few months of the season. Here is FanGraphs’ 2019 Depth Charts projection for Gregorius…

• PA: 294
• HR: 11
• AVG: .265
• WAR: 1.6

If he had accumulated 575 PAs [(0.45 * 2018 PA ) + (0.35 * 2017 PA) + (0.2 * 2016 PA)], then he would have been on pace for 3.1 WAR (575 PAs / 294 PAs = 1.96; 1.96 * 1.6 WAR = 3.1 WAR).

For the purpose of this investigation, let’s assume Didi loses 0.5 WAR annually starting in 2020 and that the cost per 1 WAR is $8 million…

2020: 2.6 WAR [3.1 – 0.5]; $20.8 million

2021 (age 31 season): 2.1 WAR; $16.8 million

2022: 1.6 WAR; $12.8 million

2023 (age 33 season): 1.1 WAR; $8.8 million

2024: 0.6 WAR; $4.8 million

Gregorius contract possibilities:

• 1 yr, $20.8 million
• 2 yr, $37.6 million
• 3 yr, $50.4 million
• 4 yr, $59.2 million
• 5 yr, $64 million

Prediction: 4 yr, $59.2 million

Thanks for reading and feel free to follow me @MaxGold81356590

How Early is Too Early to Discuss Locking Up Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez?

You know not too long ago the New York Yankees just flat out refused to negotiate with a player that was currently under contract. That probably came back to bite them in the butt more than once because it meant there would be no extensions happening whether they were deserved or not. The team finally broke this unwritten rule with Brett Gardner a couple seasons ago which means, in theory, they will do it again for others which begs the question…. When will the New York Yankees look to extend Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez and how early is too early to even be having this discussion?

Many teams take these chances on locking up their young players early and like anything else sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t. The Cleveland Indians just did it with Jose Ramirez, the St. Louis Cardinals did it with Stephen Piscotty, the Texas Rangers did it with Rougned Odor, the Pittsburgh Pirates try to do it with every player they bring up including Starlin Marte and the Tampa Bay Rays made this mainstream by doing it with young players like Evan Longoria. The Yankees have yet to really jump on that bandwagon but they have two prime candidates finally that will make the team at least consider it in Gary Sanchez and Greg Bird.

Sanchez used up his rookie season in 2016 while Bird enters his second season with the club after missing the 2016 season with a shoulder injury. Neither have really done much to warrant being locked up on a long term deal, especially for a team like the New York Yankees who have a literal ton of money coming off their books after this season. The Yankees can afford to take their time for at least the 2017 season if not the 2018 season with these two before making a decision on buying out their arbitration years and a few years of free agency if possible. Now for a player like Didi Gregorius on the other hand, a young player who is set to reach free agency after the 2019 season, has done enough for this discussion to be had within the Yankees front office.

So for now the Yankees need to wait before locking up Sanchez and Bird. If anything the team needs to keep the fact that the luxury tax is calculated by the average annual value of the contract and extending them now would be significant in terms of the team getting under that threshold or not. The argument against Didi getting extended could be made for that reason as well as the team would need to spend every day of a single season under the cap, the 2018 season seems to be the target year, to reset the tax penalties. The Yankees could always extend Didi and maybe even Sanchez and Bird during the 2019 season after they sign Manny Machado and Bryce Harper while bringing home yet another World Series Championship.

Hey, a man can dream can’t he?

What Does Strasburg’s Extension Mean for Pineda/Eovaldi

The Washington Nationals disappointed a lot of people not named Strasburg this week when the team announced a seven-year extension for the young right-hander. It was long thought that Strasburg, a former first overall pick by Washington in the MLB Draft, would hit free agency following this season but the Nationals instead locked up their ace righty begging the question how will this affect the Yankees? What will the Yankees do now with their starting pitching both on the free agent market and with their own free agents to be Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Pineda.

This coming offseason’s free agent market took a big blow with the loss of Strasburg with the front runners being Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and Rich Hill. If New York needs another starter next offseason they may have to go the same route they went this season and they may have dig deeper into the trade market. That’s if the team has their eye on the 2017 roster and team and that’s only if they don’t have their eyes on the prize in 2018 and 2019. If it’s the latter and not the former you have to wonder if the team would consider trading either or both of Eovaldi and Pineda this July or offseason.

Both Eovaldi and Pineda are young fireballers that are under contract for the 2017 season and may be the team’s best trade pieces going forward. The Yankees have shown a reluctance to go dig deep into their farm system to make the big trades when they feel it’s necessary and the free agent class is barren leaving the Yankees with little in the way of options. Either they hope to contend or they need to trade and get what they can now rather than later.

If the Yankees plan on contending they could always extend either Eovaldi and/or Pineda but that may have just gotten pretty damn expensive. Eovaldi is 26-years old while Pineda is 27-years old while Strasburg is still somehow just about to turn 28-years old this season and all three pitchers are all upside. If Strasburg is getting $175 million over seven seasons for mediocrity what would Eovaldi and Pineda get? At least $150 million you would have to think which begs the question if they are worth it? Honestly I’m not so sure.

If the Yankees are out of it in July then trade them, if they aren’t then the hard question comes. To extend or not to extend. I don’t have the answer. 

Pitching For An Extension

While the 2017 rotation can be set from within, the only sure thing for the 2018 rotation is Luis Severino.

"Follow me, boys!"

Ivan Nova is now going into his third year of arbitration, and will therefore be a free agent after this season. Masahiro Tanaka can opt-out of his contract following the 2017 season. The final season of CC Sabathia's contract is 2017. And finally, both Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi will go into their third and final years of arbitration in 2017.

When it comes to Sabathia I think we can all agree that he will not be re-signed (at least that's what we hope). However, when it comes to Tanaka opting out of his current contract, I can see the Yankees bringing him back after tacking on a couple of years to the three he'll leave on the table ('Hiro will only be 29 around the time of his opt-out). So while Severino will be around, and even if we assume Kaprielian will be ready, that still leaves two open spots for the 2018 starting rotation.

Prospect humpers will likely point to two guys that could fill those spots from within.

One of them is Ian Clarkin. While many believe that Clarkin has the most upside in the system, thanks to three pitches rated to be average or better, his health is a big question. A good and healthy 2016 will go a long way in helping determine what the Yankees do.

The other prospect that some rave about is Brady Lail. It's believed that Lail will find himself either at the bottom of the rotation or as a good middle reliever. Brady has had some issues with command, while his fastball and changeup are his only average to better offerings. If he can at least refine his curveball then a spot in the 2018 rotation is possible, but I'm not holding my breath.

"I believe in you, Brady!"

So as of this moment the Yankees are looking to see if James Kaprielian, Ian Clarkin, and Brady Lail can be counted on for the 2018 starting rotation. If even one of those guys pans out I think the team would be really happy, and that's something that I don't think is being too optimistic at all. All three of them working out? Highly unlikely. But let's say two out of three of those guys have great 2016 seasons, making their outlook for 2018 look close to certain.

To make things easier from here on out I'll predict that Kaprielian and Clarkin are the two that make it. That means the 2018 rotation will consist of Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, James Kaprielian, and Ian Clarkin. Which means one of three things will happen after this season...

1. The Yankees will look at free agency for another starter.

2. Extend Michael Pineda.

3. Extend Nathan Eovaldi.

Knowing the team's desire to get under the Luxury Tax threshold, the first option is the least likely thing to happen. Especially when you look at the list of free agent pitchers to be, and the only guy to really stand out (Stephen Strasburg) is not going to come cheap.

One of the final two possibilities will likely be the way the team goes. Frankly, neither one of those two stand out to me. Both of them have at least some injury concern, and both have flashed moments brilliance between moments of failure. If you look at their ages that doesn't help clear things up, either. Pineda is going into his age 27 season, while Eovaldi is going into his age 26 season.

Michael Pineda is my bet to earn an extension this season due to his higher upside. While his ERA was actually a bit higher than Eovaldi's last season (4.37 to 4.20), Michael gives up less walks (1.2 walks per nine innings last season to Nathan's 2.9) and strikes out more (8.7 K/9 in 2015 versus 7.1). And keep in mind that 2015 was Pineda's last full season (or close to it) since after 2011, while Nathan has thrown nearly 580 innings in that same timeframe.

In conclusion, if things work out like I think they will, the 2018 starting rotation look like this...

1. Masahiro Tanaka
2. Luis Severino
3. James Kaprielian
4. Michael Pineda
5. Ian Clarkin

I'm interested in hearing what you think of my plan, or what you would like to see happen.

Yes, I'm fishing for comments. Now shut up!

Ian Desmond Wants Free Agency to Change

The Texas Rangers got some of the worst news possible at possibly the worst possible time this year and the organization was left scrambling for help. The team learned that Josh Hamilton, shocker I know, was injured and would likely begin another MLB season on the disabled list leaving a huge hole in their lineup and in their outfield. Thankfully for Texas and thankfully for the former Washington National Ian Desmond that he was still on the free agency market. The former shortstop and second baseman signed a one-year deal to play the outfield in Texas thus ending his free agency experiment, an experiment that he wants to see changed before next season.

Desmond wants free agency changed after turning down a seven-year deal worth $107 million contract extension and a qualifying offer worth one-year and $15.8 million to sign a one-year deal with Washington worth $8 million. Sure Desmond said all the right things in front of the media with his new teammates in front of his new locker but he also expected these things to be fixed before he hits free agency again admitting a certain frustration and an anger towards the whole system. Desmond admitted that something needs to change and wants something to change and who could blame him?

Desmond, despite being one of only six players with at least 100 home runs and 100 stolen bases since 2010, at a historically offensively anemic position mind you, along with three Silver Slugger and one All-Star nomination to his belt, basically lost $100 million over the course of a calendar year. Who could blame him for wanting to change free agency? Then again who could blame him or turning down a guaranteed $107 million and a guaranteed $15.8 million on separate occasions either? Me personally I don’t feel bad for the guy, he made a business decision and it didn’t work out. Try again next year pal. You didn’t hear Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales screaming when they sat out until June because of the same process, did you? I think not. 

Quick Hit: Is Jose Bautista Kind of Being a D-Bag?

A little quick hit, primer and nugget for you this morning to start your day with and it’s not necessarily Yankees related directly. Jose Bautista told reporters this week that he has met with the Toronto Blue Jays management and organization over a potential contract extension this winter and has basically, in not so many words, said that this is the contract he will sign and there will be zero negotiation about it. Now I understand doing what you have to do to take care of you and your own but this almost seems like it has the potential to burn a bridge and it look like it’s the organization’s fault when truly Bautista is kind of coming off as an arrogant d-bag. IN MY OPINION.

The term “d-bag” may be incorrectly used here and may be used more for emphasis, again I get that he is trying to future proof not only his life but his family’s life and I can respect that, as I use the term loosely but the fact remains that he is kind of being a jerk. AGAIN IN MY OPINION. When I read quotes like the below I don’t exactly think “class.” What do you think? Leave your comments below in the comments section or tweet us @GreedyStripes.

"I don't think there should be any negotiations. I think I've proved myself, and the question has been asked — what will it take — and I've given them an answer," Bautista said. "I'm not going to sit here and try to bargain for a couple dollars."

Fair enough. No real comments out of line here. Keep reading though, it gets better.

"I think they know and realize the things that I say and agree with me. It's just a matter of, are they willing to go there?" Bautista said. "And it's not just necessarily Ross and Mark. I can't say that, I don't know. Some of that decision making, of a contract the size that I presented, has to come from ownership."

So if they have to go to ownership he’s going to want at least a nine-digit contract. That’s the way I personally read it, I by no means have a crystal ball, ESP or an inside source. He wants $150 million on a five-year deal is what's being circulated though.

"In a publicly traded company [Rogers Communication who owns the Blue Jays], everybody can track their performance fairly easy. It's not a secret. It's out in the public," Bautista said. "Stock prices are monitored very closely by the whole financial world, and I think there is a direct correlation with the success of their earnings-per-share after we start experiencing success. Are they going to put it out in the media and say because of the Jays, we made all this money? No. But everybody can read between the lines."

Pretty sure they were successful before your success but hey, you make the money you deserve some of it back. I feel like he is a bit out of line even mentioning it but hey, I’m a bias Yankees fan who hates all things Toronto according to some so what do I know.

"That doesn't exist. Not in my world," Bautista said. "In my eyes, I've given this organization a five-year hometown discount already."

Yes he has… but still…. You don’t HAVE to say everything that comes to your mind. Keep it to yourself, especially this early on in the year. This will linger in the clubhouse all season long not only with reporters but with teammates as well.

"I didn't want to waste their time or their effort, so they can start planning ahead, and if it's not going to happen, they have plenty of time to do so," Bautista said. "They asked me about two weeks ago, and I told them, and that's it. There's no negotiation. I told them what I wanted. They either meet it, or it is what it is."

No negotiation. Toronto vs. Everybody? Nope, Jose Bautista vs. Toronto. Check back and see who wins!

Using the Brandon Crawford Extension w/ Didi Gregorius

Apparently winning a Gold Glove Award is a lot more lucrative then it used to be in Major League Baseball, just ask Brandon Crawford. Crawford won a Gold Glove Award at shortstop for the National League last week and was rewarded for it this week with a new six-year contract that will take him through the 2021 season and pay him $75 million.

Obviously there was a lot more to the extension for Crawford and the Giants then just the Gold Glove but there are at least some similarities that the New York Yankees can potentially use if they choose to extend their shortstop Didi Gregorius. This will be the ultimate test of who actually reads the article and who just see’s the title and runs with it because I’m not suggesting the Yankees extend him until after the 2016 or 2017 season, not today,  with some obvious stipulations included. Health is obviously one and the second, and largest, is that his production both at the plate and in the field look more like what they looked like in the final four months of the season and less like the first month-and-a-half to two months.

San Francisco essentially bought out the final two years of arbitration that Crawford was owed and four years of free agency. Crawford, now 28-years old, batted .256 with 21 home runs and 84 RBI for San Francisco this season including his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Award along with his first trip to the All-Star Game. Crawford now has four seasons under his belt, to Didi’s just one full season in 2015, and has played in at least 143 games in each of them after making his MLB debut in May of 2011. Crawford has already helped the Giants win the World Series in 2012 and 2014 so obviously Didi has some catching up to do but this sets the tone for future talks between Gregorius and the Yankees on an extension.

I’m not saying the Yankees should extend Didi today, they should absolutely wait another full season or two and truly see what they have in Gregorius, but I like the idea of paying him sooner rather than overpaying, or potentially losing him, later. I’m personally keeping my eyes on this situation and following it closely.