Miami Signs Edwin Jackson, Unlikely to Acquire Nova?

I don't pretend to be an expert on all things Major League Baseball. I used to be but when I had kids some things had to go by the wayside. I stopped watching the NFL for the most part and I completely stopped watching the NBA but I always made room for as much baseball and college football as I could. When I had my second child a lot of college football went by the wayside and some of my baseball, although I still catch each and every Yankees game every season in some capacity. I said all that to say this, I no longer can name all 30 team's 25 man rosters, needs and trade pieces but one thing caught my eye this week on MLB Trade Rumors. First it was that the Miami Marlins were actually interested in the Yankees starter Ivan Nova and then it was that this same Miami squad signed Edwin Jackson to a major league deal. Does one report contradict the other?

I'm not so sure. The Edwin Jackson I truly remember, the one who was traded every year for a decade it seems, was a starting pitcher but I am well aware that he was converted into a reliever with the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves as recently as 2015. I am not entirely sure if Miami plans on having Jackson essentially replace Steve Cishek in their bullpen or if he is going to be counted on as a reliable back-end of the rotation starter. Until that I cannot make a true determination on whether Miami is still interested in Nova or not. I can speculate though...

My speculation is this, Jackson may go to Spring Training camp as a starter and may start some games this March but the only way he is making the MLB roster with Miami is out of the bullpen. I guess this would have to mean that the Marlins are still interested in a potential trade for Ivan Nova. Again, this is all speculation on my part. I guess we'll all have to stay tuned and find out.

Yankees Interested In Someone Better Than Whitley

The New York Yankees and general manager Brian Cashman have been open for business for the better part of a month now in the trading market. The Yankees have already added Brandon McCarthy and called up Shane Greene from the minor leagues and the weakest link in the rotation now looks to be Chase Whitley. Well it just so happens that the Yankees had some scouts in attendance for a starting pitcher that is better than Whitley, although he is extremely expensive. His name is Edwin Jackson, his team is the Chicago Cubs, and he is owed roughly $26 million for the next two plus seasons.

While the Yankees were in attendance to watch Jackson face the Arizona Diamondbacks and Edwin responded by throwing 5.1 innings and only gave up three earned runs. Jackson now sits at a 5.61 ERA with a 4.27 FIP, 1.563 WHIP, and a 3.95 xFIP. Jackson misses a lot of bats as evident of a 8.13 K/9 but walks a little too many with a 3.98 BB/9 ratio. All those stats aren't great but they are clearly better than what Whitley is likely to give the Yankees for the rest of the season.

The problem with Jackson is the Yankees may not have room for a struggling Jackson for the next two seasons. New York will presumably have CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, and Ivan Nova already in their rotation for the next two seasons. Shane Greene has shown he belongs in the rotation and New York also has a ton of pitching upside front-lined by Manny Banuelos. If Jackson were on a one year deal I may say go ahead and get him but he's not, so I won't.

Chicago writer believes Yankees could go after Edwin Jackson

So not only are some Yankees fans afraid that Brian Cashman will make a mistake by trading for a bad player, but fans of other teams are counting on it.

Early this morning Gordon Wittenmyer, a blogger for the Chicago Sun-Times, brought up the idea that the Yankees could trade for struggling Cubs starter Edwin Jackson. The deal would amount to a salary dump by the Cubs, similar to the one they did a year ago when the Yankees dealt for struggling hitter Alfonso Soriano.

For the record, I don't want anything to do with Jackson... regardless of his price tag. Edwin currently has an ERA of 5.61, which has gone up in each of the last four seasons. Not only is the ERA bad, but Jackson is walking more batters than he has since 2007.

Unlike Brandon McCarthy, you can't even chalk up those bad numbers to team defense or bad luck.

Mind you, the Cubs defense isn't the best in the league, but they do feature a solid defensive outfield, while having what might be MLB's best defense on the right side of the infield.

As for bad luck, while hitters have a Batting Average on Balls In Play that's higher than the norm, that's to be expected when players are hitting the ball hard 30% of the time.

One more thing to keep in mind when it comes to acquiring Edwin Jackson... he's signed through 2016. So even if the cost to the Yankees is a small part of the $26 million Jackson has left on his contract, this guy could clog up a roster spot for 2+ years.

Are We A Trade Match With The Cubs -- The Pitchers

The Yankees one bright spot this season has been the pitching. The pitching has carried us more times than not so I do not expect the Yankees to give up much pitching, if at all, nor do I expect them to trade for any but this is worth looking at anyway. The Cubs seem like they will be big time sellers this trade deadline season and will have some interesting pitching pieces presumably available.

We would not be having this conversation if Matt Garza had been healthy last July but we're back this trade deadline season and we're talking about the Cubs probably trading Matt Garza again. Garza has a $10.25 million contract for 2013 and will be a free agent after this season and the Cubs would love to move this contract. Garza is AL East tested and the right hander sports a 1-1 record with a 4.98 ERA but has a 1.22 WHIP and a .223 batting average against in 34 innings pitched this season. Someone will take a waiver on Garza but I am not convinced that he is an upgrade over even Phil Hughes at this point and I do not see the Yankees paying 5th starter prices for Garza so I think we will pass ultimately.

Scott Feldman has a $6 million contract that ends at the end of this season which will make him an interesting piece to move this June or July. Feldman has made all 14 of his starts this season garnering a 6-6 record with a 3.39 record in 85 innings pitched. Every contender or pretender needs a guy who can pitch to a low three ERA and eat innings and Feldman is your man. Feldman also has a 1.15 WHIP and a .232 batting average against and would probably be an upgrade over Phil Hughes at this point. Problem is some team will pay ace or #2 price for him in my opinion and that team will not be the Yankees.

Kevin Gregg has been marvelous in the Cubs bullpen this season with a 2-0 record and a minuscule 0.81 ERA in 22.1 innings pitched. Gregg has logged all 10 save opportunities this season with a 0.99 WHIP and a .188 batting average against which are Mariano Rivera type numbers. Gregg is on a $6 million option and will be a free agent after the season and unless the Yankees end up trading a Joba Chamberlain in a package for a bat I cannot see them acquiring Gregg but damn that would be nice, wouldn't it? Gregg, Robertson, and Rivera pitching the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings? Forget about it, game over.

Carlos Marmol has been terrible again and lost his closer job so he is probably stuck on the Cubs roster for the rest of the season, the Cubs will probably want to hang on to Carlos Villanueva since he is on the right side of 30 even with a $5 million annual contract through 2014, but will Edwin Jackson be traded YET AGAIN this trade deadline? While he is not pitching his butt off with a 3-9 record and a 5.49 ERA, a .282 batting average against, and a 1.55 WHIP would a team still take a waiver on him? I don't doubt the Cubs doubt their judgment when handing Jackson a four year deal worth $52 million. With Jackson set to make $11 million in 2014-2016 a team would have to give up a ton to get him but it is worth noting that he does not have a no trade clause so the possibility of him moving to a contender for a haul is just that, a possibility.

The Cubs pitchers may not intrigue us much, not to say anything bad about them, because we are not struggling in the pitching department. I cannot see the Yankees and the Cubs being a match to trade for a pitcher even though the Yankees will still likely at least kick the tires on a Gregg or a Edwin Jackson with the impending free agency of Phil Hughes and Andy Pettitte. The Cubs are going to get a haul for their pitchers to rebuild that farm system but I cannot see it being from the Yankees.

Hiroki Kuroda Or Edwin Jackson?

 

                                This Man                                                                         Or This Man?

Today the Washington Nationals, in my opinion, stole Edwin Jackson for a 1 year deal "around" $10 million. That is basically the same exact contract that Hiroki Kuroda signed with the New York Yankees a couple weeks ago. Kuroda has a No Trade Clause (NTC) and we are not sure if Jackson has one yet or not but still they signed the same contract. I would like to hear from the fans of The Greedy Pinstripes, if we have any lol, on who YOU would rather sign knowing that we could have , in a perfect world, signed either on a 1 year deal at $10 million. Leave your comments!!

Expanding the Budget

Yesterday Buster Olney reported that the Yankees are thinking of expanding the budget this season. This report was picked up by River Ave Blues, The LoHud Yankees blog, and elsewhere (the Olney article is Insider at ESPN.com). Here's the exact quote from Buster...

The New York Yankees will determine in the next couple of weeks whether they will expand their current budget, and this, of course, will determine exactly who they might add for their pitching staff.

My initial reaction was a positive one, as I'm not comfortable with the question marks in the rotation as it stands now. Can Ivan Nova repeat his 2011 season? Will AJ Burnett continue to be awful? Can Freddy Garcia contribute again? What about Phil Hughes? Honestly, it's CC Sabathia and then question, question, question, and question. So I would really like to see the Yankees acquire another starter, who can fit into the #3 or #2 spot in the rotation without a problem.

This is also a positive because earlier this off-season I expressed a desire to sign Hiroki Kuroda, after it was reported that he'd take a one year deal. That seems perfect, because after free agency next off-season, the team really wouldn't need another starter. They could have Sabathia, Hamels, and Nova in the top three spots, then fill the bottom with two of Burnett, Hughes, Warren, Phelps, Mitchell, Banuelos, and Betances. I'm not saying the reasons for backing off of Kuroda a bit weren't legit, as signing him to $13 million would end up costing an extra $5 million or so due to the luxury tax. Last season the Yankees had to pay $13.9 million towards to luxury tax, due to a payroll of $212.7 million. As things stand now the Yankees are looking at paying a little under $10 million towards the Luxury Tax, with a payroll of around $202 million. Adding Kuroda could bring the payroll to $215 million, and cost the team $14.8 million for the Luxury Tax. So we're not talking about pinching pennies here.

Well, I spoke of my "initial reaction" in the last paragraph, which means I had a different reaction after thinking about it. And that reaction wasn't a great one after looking at the payroll and luxury tax numbers. Well, in the following case, the payroll and Luxury Tax cost would likely go down a bit, but not enough to overcome my other issues. I'm talking about signing Edwin Jackson. For one thing, it's going to cost a 3-4 year contract. Which throws a wrench into the plans of getting a starter next off-season (although there's no guarantee there will be anything really good out there anyway). And on top of that multi-year deal, I'm simply not a big fan of the guy.

Edwin has averaged 203.1 innings over the last three seasons. That's great, but AJ Burnett has averaged 194.2 innings over the last three seasons, and I'm not exactly jumping around in excitement over him possibly being a starter in 2012. Being a workhorse is great, but you have to have the effectiveness to go with it. Does Jackson? Well he's given up more hits per 9 innings each season over the last three years (including giving up more hits when he moved from the White Sox to the Cardinals during last season), his ERA+ of 109 over the last 3 years suggests that he's above average but not spectacular, his BABIP was pretty high last year which suggest a regression of some of his numbers (it was .338), his batting average against has gone up in each of the last 3 seasons, and his line drive percentage was a fairly high 25%.

So Edwin may help improve the rotation a bit, I don't think it's enough to warrant a 3-4 year deal. So the idea that the Yankees are expanding the budget, and will likely make some sort of improvement when it comes to the starting rotation, frightens me a bit. And all for different reasons (Kuroda's issue is the extra money, while Jackson's is the extra years). Oh, and that doesn't get into the possibility of Roy Oswalt and his problematic lower back.

Sign? Trade? How About Both?

I read another article from River Avenue Blues regarding Edwin Jackson, in which Joe Pawlikowski mentions that the situation with Rafael Soriano during last year’s offseason is a lot like this offseason with Jackson. I won’t get into it, but if you want you can check out the article here. I’ll just say that I agree that it is similar, and disturbing.

But after reading a couple of the comments to the article I got to thinking… could the Yankees sign Edwin Jackson and trade for Matt Garza?

Say the Yankees sign Edwin Jackson, leading to me looking for a weapon that I can wrap my lips around. Okay, okay… I don’t dislike the idea of signing Jackson that bad, but after the Soriano signing last offseason you can’t blame me for being scared of the particulars of such a deal. 

At that point the Yankees would have quite a bit of depth at the starting pitcher position, both in the majors and minors. CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes, AJ Burnett, Freddy Garcia, Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, David Phelps, DJ Mitchell, Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, and now Edwin Jackson. Every single one of those guys could find a spot in a MLB starting rotation somewhere. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Houston, and a few others would definitely go for any of those guys. But there’s one team that would definitely be interested… the Chicago Cubs.

After signing Edwin the Yankees’ rotation would have five of Sabathia, Jackson, Nova, Hughes, Burnett, and Garcia. Of course, some people believe that the Yankees would put a 6-man rotation out there. Me? I say “not a chance”. Not that it couldn’t happen again at some point in 2012, but it’s not something they’d start out with or plan on going with long-term. If it wasn’t for injuries and ineffectiveness last season they wouldn’t have done it. If those two things hit hard again… okay. But until then I don’t see it happening.

So back to five of CC, Edwin, Ivan, Phil, AJ, and Freddy. The team is set for 2012 without making any more moves. Can they get better? Well, I’m sure they can. But do they need to? No, I don’t think so. So let’s look at the future… CC will be around another 5-6 years, Nova still has like 5 years of team control, and Jackson would be signed for probably 4 years. I don’t think Freddy, AJ, or Phil is blocking anybody. Freddy is only signed for 2012, AJ will only be around for two more years, and Phil could be put back in the bullpen coming out of Spring Training. That would leave two more rotation spots for Noesi, Banuelos, Betances, Warren, Phelps, Mitchell. And that doesn’t count lower prospects like Brett Marshall like Nik Turley. So it’s clear that the Yankees could lose some of those guys without missing a beat.

Now it’s true that not all of those prospects are going to pan out. Out of the 8 prospects mentioned, the Yanks would be lucky if 3 of them were serviceable in MLB. This is where the scouts need to step up and figure out who is worth what. Who is more likely to make it, and who is a long-shot at best? And then go from there. Could the scouts make the wrong choice? Sure they could. But taking risks is part of the game. 

The risk that would be taken is picking 3 of those names and putting them in a package for Matt Garza. I’m not saying it will only take 3 of those pitchers, as it would also take a position player such as Austin Romine too. If a catcher could do it then the Bombers could more than afford to lose one of Romine, Murphy, or Sanchez (I’d prefer Romine or Murphy, though). 

Phil Hughes, Hector Noesi, Dellin Betances, Brett Marshall, and Austin Romine sounds like more than enough. Mike at River Avenue Blues looked at what San Diego got for Mat Latos, and figured an equivalent package from New York would have been Jesus Montero, Phil Hughes, Austin Romine, and Adam Warren. I think the package I laid out in the first sentence is better than that, which makes up for the different between Mat Latos and Matt Garza. Maybe even a bit too much more.

The final reason I think this could happen is that the Yankees could look ahead at the cost of Cole Hamels. Without making any more moves this offseason (at least not big ones), I truly believe the Yanks would be in on Cole Hamels… assuming Cole does hit free agency.  Well I think Cole could see a contract of like 6 years and $120 million. Well, by signing Jackson and trading for Garza this offseason, the team could avoid giving out another big contract in terms of years and money. Which by 2014 could save them a good chunk of money.

So I could see the Yankees entering the 2012 season with a rotation of CC Sabathia, Matt Garza, Edwin Jackson, Ivan Nova, and AJ Burnett/Freddy Garcia. Sounds pretty damn sweet to me.

My Reaction To “Jackson vs. Garza”

Jon Heyman recently published an article stating that when it comes to the Yankees adding a starter it’s Edwin Jackson vs. Matt Garza. Heyman says that guys like Kuroda, Jurrjens, Wandy Rodriguez, Gavin Floyd, and Roy Oswalt either don’t fit or are not what the Yankees want. I get that. Jon goes on to say that Jackson has a couple of big plusses… endurance and health. He has 30+ games started in the last 5 seasons, and has not been on the DL over the last 5 seasons. Garza on the other hand, according to Heyman, is just too expensive at this time (in terms of prospects in a trade).

My initial reaction is this… Edwin Jackson is not a #2 starter. At least not on the Yankees he’s not. I’m sure the Pirates would be thrilled to have him as their #2 starter, but that’s a dubious distinction seeing as how Pittsburgh had the worst starting pitching in MLB (according to fWAR). The asking price isn’t ridiculous as far as it’s annual average value (AAV). Scott Boras has said he’s looking for 5 years and $60 million, which works out to $12 million a season. Scott Kazmir made $12 million in 2011, and he only threw 63 pitches. Even if you look past last season Scott hasn’t had an ERA below 4.00 since 2008. So I can see Edwin getting $12 million, or even a bit more, a season. But 5 years? No thanks. Hell, the Yankees are already paying AJ Burnett $16.5 million to be the #5 starter (and that’s kind of generous, as AJ is barely worth a rotation spot).

Basically when it comes to acquiring a starter it’s a true #2 or nothing. Therefore the first question that should be asked is this… is Matt Garza a #2 starter?

In the past three seasons Matt Garza’s xFIP is 3.88, which is 51st among qualified starters in MLB. Garza’s fWAR is 9.7, which is 32nd in MLB. Simple math tells me that “yes”, Matt Garza is a legitimate #2 starter.

Matt is 28 so it’s not like we’re trading away prospects for one season. Matt can help out for at least the next two years while he’s under team control, which would take him through his age 29 season. And if he’s still doing well at that point, then I can see the Yankees bringing him back for another 5 years or so. So we can’t say we don’t want to deal prospects because he’s only a short-term solution, unlike other pitchers we’ve discussed trading for in the past (Jesus Montero for Cliff Lee?). Sure, a guy like Manny Banuelos may be able to give the Yankees a couple more “prime” seasons, but remember… there’s no guarantee about how good his “prime” seasons will be. But there’s one thing not even the best pitching prospect in the Yankee system can do for them, and that’s help them win in 2012.

That’s not to say I’m okay with trading Banuelos, I’m just making a point that Garza can give the Yankees quite a bit of help next season and in future seasons. So if the Yankees can trade for Garza without giving up 2 of their top 3 prospects, then I’m all for it.