Here’s my roll of the dice…

2017 Opening Day Roster Prediction…

Since everyone seems to be coming out with their Opening Day roster predictions, I may as well jump in.  My choices are probably not too much different than the ones provided by Daniel Burch a few days ago.  With all sincerity, I am glad that I am not Joe Girardi.  It's challenging to make the call with a few players.  Girardi has some very difficult decisions ahead, followed by tough conversations with adversely impacted players.

Here are my picks:

Starting Line-up

C: Gary Sanchez

1B: Greg Bird

2B: Starlin Castro

SS: Didi Gregorius

3B: Chase Headley

LF: Brett Gardner

CF: Jacoby Ellsbury

RF: Aaron Judge

DH: Matt Holliday

Bench

1B: Chris Carter

OF: Aaron Hicks

UTILITY: Ronald Torreyes

C: Austin Romine

Starting Rotation

1-RHP: Masahiro Tanaka

2-RHP: Michael Pineda

3-LHP: CC Sabathia

4-RHP: Luis Severino

5-LHP: Bryan Mitchell

Bullpen

LHP: Tommy Layne

RHP: Ben Heller

RHP: Chad Green

RHP: Adam Warren

RHP: Tyler Clippard

RHP: Dellin Betances-Setup/Backup Closer

LHP: Aroldis Chapman-Closer

I decided against Jon Niese.  Nothing against him personally, but the Yankees would have to open a spot on the 40-man roster for him.  I feel that both Ben Heller and Chad Green have pitched effectively this spring and are deserving of the opportunity to head north with the big league club.  Either Adam Warren or Chad Green can fill the spot starter role.  I think that once Ernesto Frieri is ready (assuming that he proves he belongs back in the majors after a lost year), he'll come up to replace either Heller or Green.  So, with my roster, there's no room for Niese.  

I felt Jordan Montgomery was destined for reassignment to minor league camp but after his contribution in Friday’s no-hitter win over the Detroit Tigers, he has probably re-inserted his name into the OD roster discussion.  If, somehow, Montgomery makes the final cut, I  anticipate Chad Green being sent down.  I feel Montgomery needs to start so I could see Mitchell moved out the #5 spot to make room.  This will be an interesting development to watch over camp’s final weeks.

There are a few players above that I would absolutely love to kick to the curb.  If I had $90 million to burn, Jacoby Ellsbury would be anyplace but the Bronx.  I am ready for Chase Headley to go too.  But the time is not right for either to leave so we'll just have to deal with it and hope for the best.

I had really hoped that reliever Jonathan Holder would snag a spot but it doesn't appear he is quite ready.  Lefty Chasen Shreve was another that I hoped would up his A game, but he hasn't looked too great this spring in limited opportunities although he was part of yesterday’s no-hitter.

I am also disappointed that Rob Refsnyder is not in the picture.  It's too bad that he didn't grow up playing the infield as a kid.  With better defensive skills, there's no doubt that he would have supplanted Ronald Torreyes on the roster.  

The above roster assumes that the Yankees do not make any trades or other moves between now and Opening Day.  It's possible that Refsnyder and others could be moved but I am not expecting any blockbuster deals at the moment.  Jose, can you see?  Sorry, I'll let it go...

I don't think any of the roster predictions that I've seen are wrong.  The Yankees are very fortunate to have more than 25 guys deserving of a major league roster spot.  It certainly beats the alternative.

The latest Yankee to head to minor league camp for re-assignment is SS/2B Jorge Mateo.  

Have a great Saturday!  I have a date with my Harley…

Is this the next iteration of Joba Rules?…

Credit:  Cliff Welch, MiLB.com

It sounds as though top pitching prospect James Kaprielian will not pitch for the Yankees this spring.  With multiple news reports citing that he will be “babied”, the plan is for Kaprielian to start the year with Single A Tampa.  Although he’s ready for at least Double A, the Yankees prefer the Californian to pitch in the warmer Tampa climate over Trenton, New Jersey.

At 23, Kaprielian does not need much more seasoning in the minor leagues.  The former college pitcher would probably be in the major leagues for good now if not for missing most of last year due to injury.  I have no doubt he would have been in prime competition with Luis Severino, Bryan Mitchell, Chad Green and others for the final two spots in the rotation had he been healthy last season. 

If the Yankees take a very conservative path for Kaprielian, there will most likely be an innings limit placed on him.  I hope he shows that he is ready for greater challenges.  If he can stay healthy this year, it’s a near certainty that he’ll be in position next spring to challenge for CC Sabathia’s spot in the rotation.  I do not expect the Yankees to re-sign Sabathia upon the conclusion of his contract this year.  CC’s been a great Yankee but Team Steinbrenner is not going to sink millions in a past-his-prime pitcher when they can go with young cost-controlled arms.  

I am convinced that Kaprielian is a big league pitcher.  When his time arrives, I have no doubt he’ll have his pinstripes for a very long time.  

According to Yankees Manager Joe Girardi, it will be a successful year for Jacoby Ellsbury if he can score 100 runs.  Considering that Ellsbury has never scored 100 runs in a season with the Yankees and has only reached the milestone once in his career, that seems to be a tall order for the 33-year-old centerfielder.  Okay, he came close a couple of times while in Boston but still, it’s a mark he has reached only one time.  

Ellsbury’s best year was 2011 when he scored 119 runs, and had 212 hits, 32 home runs and 105 RBI’s for the Red Sox.  He has never come close to matching those numbers again.  In three years with the Yankees, he has only averaged 69 runs scored per year.  His highest home run total in those three years was his first year with New York when he hit 16 home runs.  

In looking at his trend line, there’s no reason to expect more than 70 runs scored, 9 home runs and 55 RBI’s.  Very pedestrian numbers for a $153 million contract.  Even his stolen base numbers have steadily declined.  I really do not think Ellsbury has another career year in him.  As the saying goes, speed does not age well.  Ellsbury’s just biding time until someone like Clint Frazier or Jorge Mateo is ready to take his job.  Then he’ll be baseball’s most expensive bench performer, assuming he’s not on the DL.

If only the Yankees had ponied up $87 million more after the 2013 season to re-sign Robinson Cano as opposed to bringing in Ellsbury.  It would have been the better investment.  I know, I know, hindsight is 20-20…  

Chase Headley should be grateful for Ellsbury.  It’s the only thing that keeps the spotlight off him as the team’s weakest link.  Miguel Andujar, hurry up and develop!  

“What are we at the park except to win?  I’d trip my mother.  I’d help her up, 

brush her off, tell her I’m sorry.  But Mother don’t make it to third.”

—Leo Durocher

It was reported in this morning's New York Post (by George A. King III) that the Yankees have placed infielder Rob Refsnyder on the trading block.  With a wealth of young talent and a man without a position, Refsnyder has become the forgotten man.  I think all of us wanted him to succeed but it appears that it won’t be for the home team.  We tend to trade these types of guys to the Pittsburgh Pirates or San Diego Padres so we’ll see where Refsnyder ends up.  I wish him the best of luck for finding major league success.

Yesterday, the Yankees took yet another spring game when they beat the Pittsburgh Pirates, 3-2.  

In a couple of not-so-great highlights, Gleyber Torres swung and missed badly on a pitch, falling on his back.  It generated a chuckle from the normally stoic Girardi.  Clint Frazier took a ball to his noggin that had deflected off Dustin Fowler’s glove in the outfield.  Frazier was criticized for being overly aggressive on a play that should have belonged to Fowler.  Say what you will about Frazier’s crazy red hair but it definitely has its health and safety benefits.  

Yankees first base candidate Ji-Man Choi was also struck in the side of his face with a fastball from reliever Antonio Bastardo.  He appeared okay but was pulled from the game for precautionary reasons.  Bastardo is a Pirate thanks to current Yankee Jon Niese (acquired from the Mets for Niese last summer).  

Masahiro Tanaka continued to look great with three strong scoreless innings to start the game.  

The Yankees improved their spring record to 9-2 with the win.