Predicting the Opening Day Roster

Every year I get excited about the start of Spring Training, as it marks the beginning of baseball for the year. Sure, at times the offseason can be exciting to think and talk about, but for the most part it's boring and I can't wait for it to be over with.

Also, every year, the excitement for Spring Training quickly wears off and I'm left counting down the days to the real start of the baseball season... Opening Day. No longer am I going to watch a Yankees' game only to ask myself "who is that guy?" when a player enters a game.

Don't get me wrong, it's fun to see the prospects play, but I'd much rather watch guys like Aaron Judge and Miguel Andujar play in a real game rather than Francisco Diaz or Trey Amburgey in a glorified scrimmage.

Thankfully we're just a week away from Opening Day. Sadly, due to the Yankees seemingly suffering an injury every day, the Opening Day roster is not going to look like I'd originally hoped. But that hasn't stopped me from thinking about what it will look like, and to be honest it'll be much more interesting to see how things shake out now.

Speaking of injuries, I wanted to start by pointing out the players that would have been on the Opening Day roster if it wasn't for being injured...

Aaron Hicks - OF
Didi Gregorius - SS
Luis Severino - SP
CC Sabathia - SP (although he may be healthy, he'll at least miss time due to suspsension)
Jordan Montgomery - SP (J.A. Happ may not even be on the team if not for Jordan's Tommy John surgery)
Dellin Betances - RP

While I wasn't counting on Jacoby Ellsbury to be on the Opening Day roster like those previous six players above, due to Aaron Hicks being out he could have been included.

I'm going to begin my predictions for the roster with the starting rotation. We all know the first three starters (Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, and J.A. Happ), but I believe that Luis Cessa and Domingo German will get at least a start or two in the early going.

Cessa has thrown the most innings (17) and has been very impressive (0.53 ERA), while German has thrown 11.1 innings with only a 1.54 ERA. Neither man has a ton of fans, but I think they've both earned rotation spots.

I've heard good things about how Gio Gonzalez has looked so far, and while I don't expect him to be on the Opening Day roster, he'll be right there should one of Cessa or German look bad or suffer an injury.

Four of the eight bullpen spots are no-brainers. Aroldis Chapman will be the closer, with Zack Britton setting him up. Chad Green and Adam Ottavino will also be available for any important innings between the time the starter is taken out and Aaron Boone can hand the ball to Britton.

Jonathan Holder may not have been a "lock" to be in the bullpen, but he's certainly earned a spot there after looking good last season along with 10.1 innings during Spring Training with a 0.87 ERA. Tommy Kahnle has looked pretty good in Spring Training as well, throwing 7.1 innings with nine strikeouts and no walks, and since I think the Yankees want to see if he can be effective again now's as good a time as any to see.

The final two bullpen spots were a little harder to predict. Under the new rule limiting September call-ups Stephen Tarpley may not have even been on the Yankees' radar, but not only did he do well upon being called up last year he's also had a nice spring having not given up a run in 10.1 innings. Besides Britton and Chapman, who are set in their roles, the team could also use a left-handed reliever for the middle innings. The last spot is hardly a no-brainer, but Joe Harvey's ten strikeouts in 6.1 innings along with having a nice year between AA and AAA in 2018 makes me lean his way.

Moving onto the run production side of the team I'm going to start with the bench.

Austin Romine is one of the better backup catchers in the entire league. That's not to say I'd be okay if he were the team's regular starter, but he's a very capable backup.

If it weren't for Jacoby Ellsbury not being ready by Opening Day he'd likely take this spot on the bench, but instead that will go to Tyler Wade. Wade is very versatile, and like Kahnle the Yankees likely feel it's now or never for Tyler. If it wasn't for Wade's ability to play the outfield, though, I'd probably be talking about someone else.

The last spot is tough only because I'd rather see him starting at second base instead, but unfortunately the Yankees seem set on giving Troy Tulowitski the starting role at shortstop. Therefore, D.J. LeMahieu will be watching the game from the bench on Opening Day.

Finally we come to the starters. Due to the thing about Tulowitski that I already mentioned, and the rash of injuries the team has suffered this spring, there really aren't any surprises here.

The outfield will consist of Aaron Judge in right, Brett Gardner in center, and Giancarlo Stanton in left. While it's not a surprise to see Stanton in the outfield instead of DH, I can't help but feel the offense is better off this way as it opens up the DH spot for someone else. Plus it would be that "someone else" over Tyler Wade as a starter, which is clearly the right choice.

Miguel Andujar will be at third base, the aforementioned Troy Tulowitski at shortstop, Gleyber Torres at second, and due to him being the better defender Greg Bird will be at first. Gary Sanchez will take his rightful place behind the plate.

The designated hitter will be Luke Voit. Luke killed it when he came over from St. Louis last year, and this spring he's been hitting very well too. No matter the injury situation the Yankees were in, it would be very hard to keep Voit out of the Opening Day lineup.

There was just one other player I wanted to bring up before ending things, and that's Clint Frazier. Even before the offseason began I expected Clint to begin this season in AAA to make sure his head is clear and to get back to game speed, so I'm hardly surprised here. It's true I was rooting for him in Spring Training to come out guns blazing, but it just hasn't happened. So let the guy get going in AAA and push his way back to MLB.

When I read people predict the Red Sox to win the American League East again, at first, I get upset. I mean, no real Yankees fan ever wants to see anything good happen to Boston. But one thing I like about it is less expectations, and therefore less pressure, on the Yankees. Kind of like how things were in 2017. Sure, there's more to expect from this team, but at least it's not like last year when they were coming off a season in which they were one win away from the World Series.

One thing's for sure, this squad will give us plenty to talk about during the season. And I fully expect to have a lot of fun.

I'll leave you with a simple list of the Yankees' Opening Day roster...

C-Gary Sanchez
1B-Greg Bird
2B-Gleyber Torres
SS-Troy Tulowitzki
3B-Miguel Andujar
LF-Giancarlo Stanton
CF-Brett Gardner
RF-Aaron Judge
DH-Luke Voit

Bench:
D.J. LeMahieu
Tyler Wade
Austin Romine

Starting Rotation:
Masahiro Tanaka
James Paxton
J.A. Happ
Luis Cessa
Domingo German

Bullpen:
Aroldis Chapman
Zack Britton
Chad Green
Adam Ottavino
Jonathan Holder
Tommy Kahnle
Stephen Tarpley
Joe Harvey

The Dog Days of Spring...

Less Than 3 Weeks to Opening Day…

I always love the arrival of pitchers and catchers in early February, followed shortly thereafter by the position players. The first images of Spring Training are always a welcome sight after a long, cold winter. The first glimpses of the players on the practice fields near Steinbrenner Field, the popping of catcher’s mitts and the sounds of bats as balls leave the yard. But gradually, the excitement fades and the arrival of Opening Day can’t get here fast enough. We’re here now. I am starting to lose interest in watching guys like Trey Amburgey and Isiah Gilliam playing games and want to see the MLB regulars consistently through game’s end.   

Credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

For the Yankees, hopefully there will be no further injuries this Spring. We know at least three players are headed for the Injured List to start the season. Luis Severino, Jacoby Ellsbury, and CC Sabathia. Sevy is currently in the midst of his two-week shutdown. It was reported yesterday that he isn’t feeling any pain after a cortisone shot. But like a doctor once told me after a cortisone shot, it masks the pain but doesn’t cure the problem. Based on Sevy’s positive words, I am cautiously optimistic that rest is the cure and there will be no further setbacks for him. Ellsbury, after such a late start to camp (expected to arrive next week), will need to stay for extended spring training, assuming he’s 100% healthy even when he arrives (unlikely if you ask me). Sabathia, as we know, had a delayed start this Spring after last December’s angioplasty and has been going a little slower than the rest of the starting rotation.  

Two inactive players in camp are already destined for the Injured List as they continue their respective recoveries from Tommy John surgery: Didi Gregorius and Jordan Montgomery. I had been bracing myself for the possibility Gregorius could be out until August but he is seemingly ahead of schedule and we could see him as early as June. Regardless of how well Tulo may be playing at the time, Didi will be such a welcome sight when he is cleared to play. Montgomery is doubtful to provide any meaningful contribution this season. When he is cleared to throw and begins his rehab, he’ll head to the Minor Leagues. I see him as nothing more than a spot starter very late in the season, if at all. Many fans are acting like he’ll be a great trade deadline “acquisition” but honestly I don’t see him pitching any big games for the Yankees this year. Even healthy, he is not one of the best starters and I think it will be next season before he’s truly back and ready to help. 

So, in my opinion, Opening Day seems to be pointing to the following roster:

Projected 2019 New York Yankees Opening Day Roster
Catcher	Gary Sanchez
First Base	Luke Voit
Second Base	Gleyber Torres
Shortstop	Troy Tulowitzki
Third Base	Miguel Andújar
Right Field	Aaron Judge
Center Field	Aaron Hicks
Left Field	Brett Gardner
Designated Hitter	Giancarlo Stanton
Super Utility	D.J. LeMahieu
Bench	Tyler Wade
Bench	Austin Romine
SP-1	Masahiro Tanaka
SP-2	James Paxton
SP-3	J.A. Happ
SP-4	Jonathan Loaisiga
SP-5	Domingo German
Closer	Aroldis Chapman
Setup	Dellin Betances
Rest of the Bullpen	Zack Britton
	Adam Ottavino
	Chad Green
	Jonathan Holder
	Tommy Kahnle
	Luis Cessa

This is not necessarily the OD roster I want but rather what the tea leaves seem to be saying according to my eyes. I know many fans can’t let go of the homer Greg Bird hit off Andrew Miller in the playoffs a couple of years ago but Voit deserves the first base job based on last season’s performance (until proven otherwise). As the loser of the first base job, I expect Bird to begin the season at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. I’ve seen people say one of Voit or Bird should be traded but I do think it would be unwise. As much as I like Voit, he needs to prove last Fall was not a fluke. If not, Bird needs to be ready for the call-up while playing every day for the RailRiders. LeMahieu is expected to be the backup first baseman.  

This lineup forces the Yankees to use Stanton in left field more often than they would like. I know I don’t see Brett Gardner as an every day starter anymore but no doubt Manager Aaron Boone will run him out there as often as possible. I still expect Clint Frazier to eventually come up from Triple A to mount a serious threat for playing time but realistically it won’t happen until later this summer if Frazier mashes for the RailRiders unless injuries mandate an earlier call. There’s no circumstance I see Gardy as the starter when the calendar page turns to September.

I am a bit concerned about the nagging little ailments that always seem to bother Hicks. He has been held out of games over the past week due to tightness in his back and is still feeling some discomfort. He is not expected to return to play until next Tuesday at the earliest according to Aaron Boone’s words yesterday. I am hopeful the back does not become a season-long malady. I am sure Hicks wouldn’t have missed as much time if it had been the regular season but there’s still concern (if not the Yankees, at least for me).  

Tyler Wade’s speed and versatility (ability to play infield and outfield positions) makes him the most logical option for the bench. If he gets the job, I really hope this serves as his breakout year.

My preferred starting lineup would feature LeMahieu at second, with Torres sliding to shortstop, until Gregorius returns. But hey, what do I know. Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone get paid a lot of money to make those decisions and they’re certainly much smarter and more knowledgeable about the Yankees than I am.   

Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Tanaka at the top of the rotation is my speculation that he’ll be named as the Opening Day starter. Otherwise, I’d rate Paxton as the slightly better pitcher (sorry Masa). Sevy is expected to be checked late next week to see if he can resume throwing. Best case scenario, we won’t see him until late April or even possibly early May. The concern here is the potential for further setbacks which would delay Sevy much longer than originally expected. Everyone keeps expecting CC Sabathia to come back pitching like he did last season but that’s not a certainty by any stretch of the imagination. The guy had a stint placed in a heart valve. It’s a serious procedure and we honestly do not know how it will affect him until he actually pitches against live hitting in games that matter. I can’t say that I am too enamored with the heavy reliance upon Loaisiga and German (or Cessa) in the early going. I know GM Brian Cashman has said the Yankees intend to go with the internal options, but really, what else is he supposed to say. Even if he is very interested in signing a free agent arm or acquiring another pitcher via trade, he is not going to tip his hand and show any signs of desperation. It would force the Yankees into an overpay situation. So, while I expect the Yankees to go into the season with Loaisiga and German as starters, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Yankees make another move to bring in a veteran starter. There’s no scenario I see Dallas Keuchel as a Yankee. The money, the years, and the draft pick compensation attached simply do not make any sense. I guess age 31 is the new 41 in Major League Baseball. The next few weeks should be interesting as the 2019 Opening Day Roster takes shape. Inevitably, there is always a surprise or two. We’ll see.

As expected, the Yankees reacquired controlling interest in the YES Network.  Holding 20% ownership in the network, they purchased the remaining 80% from Disney with the help of other investors, including Amazon, Blackstone Group and Sinclair Broadcast Group, for $3.47 billion. The transaction presumably increases the Yankees’ stake in YES to 30% and controlling interest among the financial backers. I’ve seen many fans complain about the Yankees’ investment in the YES Network over signing former free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado but, in my opinion, one does not affect the other. I don’t think the YES Network acquisition impacted the decision not to pursue Harper and Machado, nor do I feel that signing one of those guys would have prevented the purchase. Long-term, for the Yankees, I feel reacquiring control of the YES Network is a wise decision. It does underscore the fact the Yankees are a very valuable franchise and regardless of how one feels about Harper and Machado, a very financially astute one.  

The sale does not require FCC approval but it is expected to take 120 days to complete. It was reported the financial partners have their own strategic plans for the acquisition but the Yankees will control programming, and the choice of announcers. We may love baseball but it’s hard to ignore the Yankees are a major business and all decisions are made for the long-term vision and success of the organization.  

Speaking of the YES Network, I’ve been very pleased with their decision to have guest announcers this Spring. I particularly enjoyed the recent insight of Reggie Jackson. As a fan who grew up with the famed Bronx Zoo, it was fun listening to Reggie’s stories of those days. I loved Thurman Munson and enjoyed hearing his name again. Willie Randolph did a great job too. David Wells is scheduled to sit in the booth next Friday and Saturday when the Yankees play two of his former teams, the Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays. Boomer remains one of my all-time favorites and I am looking forward to his appearance.

As always, Go Yankees!