Masahiro Tanaka has, at least temporarily, avoided Tommy John surgery after four doctors including Dr. James Andrews cleared him to rest and rehab his partially torn ulnar collateral ligament. This week we learned that Tanaka went into the Yankees complaining of a wrist injury that ended up being a “small” forearm strain that landed him on the 15 day DL and will keep him out of the Yankees rotation for at least a month. This much we do know and unlike the many on Twitter who went absolutely ape crap crazy on Tuesday night calling for the head of Brian Cashman because Tanaka did not get Tommy John surgery I am going to try, now that I am calm and had a night or two to sleep on it, to remain optimistic about the whole ordeal because there is plenty to be optimistic about. Keep reading and I’ll try to get there as quickly as I can.
The Yankees are either going to survive this rest and rehab
thing on his elbow or they aren’t and it’s looking more and more likely that
it’s going to come to a head sometime during the 2015 season. This can be a
good thing or a bad thing for New York when you consider his opt out clause
that Tanaka has written into his contract that will allow him to opt out after
the 2017 season. If Tanaka ends up going down with Tommy John surgery in 2015
he will miss likely the entire 2016 season due to rehab and will not be the
same in 2017. Usually pitchers take a year off to rest and rehab and a year of
getting back into the grind that is the Major League season before you see the
true finished product two years removed from the surgery. Tanaka may be the
exception to the rule, in either direction, but he would be unlikely to put up
numbers similar to his first 18 starts in 2014 meaning the likelihood of him
exercising the opt out clause has to be low.
If Tanaka can make it through the season without any further
problems with the elbow and can make it through the 2017 season without a Tommy
John surgery then he may opt out of his contract, and honestly that may be the
best thing for the Yankees. Tanaka is signed through the 2020 season and all
signs point to this rest and rehab just being a band-aid to his problem meaning
that the Yankees simply delayed the inevitable with Tanaka’s elbow. If Tanaka
opts out and walks away from the final three years of his contract it may be a
blessing in disguise for New York, especially if he succumbs to the surgery in
the final three years or beyond like Adam Wainwright eventually did in a
similar situation.
There is a lot of “what-if’s” and moving parts in this
theory, I know, but it has to be, or should be at least, in the back of the
minds of the Yankees brass. It’s either going to work out or it’s not and in a
pair of scenarios it could work out for the Yankees so don’t panic and let’s
look on the bright side. Either the Yankees will have to pay Tanaka big money
to rehab his elbow with a gaping hole in their rotation or it will be someone
else’s problem but we cannot predict or prevent either outcome so let’s all
take a step back and enjoy him while we have him, shall we?
