Showing posts with label Starting Lineup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Starting Lineup. Show all posts

Saturday, August 1, 2015

Coming To Terms After The Trade Deadline

The Toronto Blue Jays are better, the Kansas City Royals are better, the Los Angeles Dodgers are better, and the Texas Rangers are better. The New York Yankees are... pretty much the same team they were last week.

"That was a pretty boring week."

I'm not happy that Brian Cashman didn't find a way to improve the team, but I'm not convinced that something had to be done. Take the bullpen for example, where we heard rumors of Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, or Carter Capps being traded for...

While it would have been incredible to have Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller, and Craig Kimbrel/Aroldis Chapman/Carter Capps in the bullpen, would that be necessary? Those three could take care of four innings, making the starters only have to throw for five. But Masahiro Tanaka has averaged 6.23 innings per start, while Michael Pineda has averaged 6.21 innings per start. That means, unless those guys have a bad game, one of Betances, Miller, or Kimbrel wouldn't even be used in a game. And a bad performance by one of the starters could very well mean the Yankees are losing more than half-way through the game. That's not good, especially against the Royals, Orioles, Blue Jays, Angels, and Astros... all of which have pretty good bullpens.

I don't mean to be a hypocrite here. Yes... I was cool with the Yankees offering Jorge Mateo for Craig Kimbrel. I would have liked to keep Mateo, as you can never have too many middle infield prospects, but the facts are that Jorge is only in single-A, and Didi Gregorius has looked really good over the last month. So losing Mateo wouldn't be that bad. No, the bad part was Jed Gyorko.

The fact that Gyorko's OPS+ since the beginning of the 2014 season is only 77 wouldn't be that big a problem, especially seeing how the Yankees traded for Dustin Ackley and his OPS+ of 78 this season. The problem with Gyorko is that he's signed through 2019 for $32 million (plus a $1 million buyout of a team option for 2020). It's surely not an albatross contract like Sabathia's, but the idea of paying this guy $13 million in 2019 is ridiculous.

To sum up the bullpen, with the top two along with guys such as Chasen Schreve and Justin Wilson, a big upgrade was hardly necessary.

What about the starting rotation, which could use an upgrade at the top?

The Yankees were never close to acquiring an ace-type starter, and it turns out that doing so would have taken at least one of the big four... Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Greg Bird, and Jorge Mateo. But even if Brian Cashman would have been okay parting with one or more of those guys, would doing that for somebody like Johnny Cueto be necessary?

Yankees starters are currently ranked 6th in the American League in FIP, and out of the five teams ahead of them in that category, the Houston Astros are the only team with a good chance at making the postseason (the other four are the Oakland Athletics, the Chicago White Sox, the Tampa Bay Rays, and Cleveland Indians).

Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays did a good job of improving their rotation, adding David Price. However, the Yankees have destroyed Price recently, and the Jays' next best starter is Mark Buerle, who would struggle to strike out you or I.

Yes, a pitcher of the Mike Leake or James Shields variety would have been welcome, but there's no certainty that they would be any better than simply calling up Luis Severino. Not to mention that Adam Warren did a really good job in the rotation earlier this season, and he could be put back there. Then there's Bryan Mitchell, another fine starting candidate. Sure, Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda haven't been true #1 starters, but I still trust those guys. And Nathan Eovaldi has been fairly good lately.

Yeah.. anyway...

Fine, but Stephen Drew and Brendan Ryan are still our regular second basemen. Ugh!

That's true, and it's not good. However, there was never a solid rumor regarding an offensive upgrade. Plenty of people, myself included, brought up guys like Ben Zobrist or Martin Prado. Well, the Yankees' bats are already pretty good (2nd in AL in runs scored and wRC+), so I don't think a trade in this area was truly necessary. Bringing back Rob Refsnyder to be the team's regular second baseman over Stephen Drew may be all the team needs on offense.

What I find really funny is that, in the past, a number of fans spoke out against trading away all of the team's good prospects. Now that the team has changed gears when it comes to building from within, and we got through a trading deadline without losing a top 15 prospect, you'd think the fans would be happy. But no... they wanted a "big" trade to happen. Face it... Brian Cashman can't win.

I'm extremely excited about the team. Without possibly damaging the future of the team, they're six games in first place with 60 games to play. That may not be a lot, but it is hardly an easy hill to climb for the second place Blue Jays and Orioles.

We've been waiting to see Luis Severino get called up, and next week we're going to finally see it. And against the Red Sox no less. How awesome is that?

And as early as next season we could see the team's top prospect, and somebody the offense may be built around in the near future, Aaron Judge. Of course, that would mean delegating Carlos Beltran and his $15 million salary to the bench, but I don't think it's out of the question.

I've already talked about Rob Refsnyder being brought back up to permanently replace the combination of Drew and Ryan at second base.

Then there's Greg Bird, who may very well get a promotion to the big league some time next season, where he'll take his next stop towards taking over for Mark Teixiera at first base.

However, with how he's hitting homer after homer, and making plays like the gem last night, I'm not in any hurry for him to step down.

Finally, one of the best parts about not dealing for Craig Kimbrel, Cole Hamels, or others is that the Yankees are not obligated to pay a large chunk of money to another player. Nor are they on the hook for so many years of their contracts.

The New York Yankees are not the same team they were a few years ago. Maybe not even two years ago. If you're too young to remember when Don Mattingly played for the Yankees, then I can understand your frustration with the team not bettering their chances to win it all this year. But if you do remember Donnie Baseball, and the team's struggles prior to 1996, then building another Core Four like what Brian Cashman has said he's trying to do sounds pretty damn appealing.

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Spending A Lot, But Not Getting A Lot

While I've moved away from constantly talking about the Yankees' payroll, as that used to be the basis for the majority of what I wrote around here, I'm still fascinated by the Dollar value that Fangraphs gives players. 

Here's a little foreshadowing for you.

Now, we all know that the Yankees haven't lived up to their payroll, but I couldn't help myself from seeing just how much they've come under that number. And that's where the Dollar value from Fangraphs came into player. So here are the Opening Day lineup and starting rotation, along with the player's actual salary (not the Average Annual Value of their contracts), and how much they've earned so far this season...

C - Brian McCann $17 million/$7 million
1B - Mark Teixeira $22.5 million/$6.6 million
2B - Brian Roberts $2 million$/.3 million
3B - Kelly Johnson $3 million/$3.4 million
SS - Derek Jeter $8 million/$.5 million
LF - Brett Gardner $5.6 million/$18.8 million
CF - Jacoby Ellsbury ~$21.1 million/~$14.5 million
RF - Carlos Beltran $15 million/$-2.2  million
DH - Alfonso Soriano $18 million/$-6.3 million

CC Sabathia $23 million/$.9 million
Hiroki Kuroda $16 million/$12.3 million
Masahiro Tanaka $22 million/$16.9 million
Ivan Nova $3.3 million/$-2.1 million
Michael Pineda $.538475 million/$4.6 million

Here are the players that have cost the team money so far this year, and just how much...

Alfonso Soriano - $24.3 million
CC Sabathia - $22.1 million
Carlos Beltran - $17.2 million
Mark Teixeira - $15.9 million
Brian McCann - $10 million
Derek Jeter - $7.5 million
Jacoby Ellsbury - ~$6.6 million
Ivan Nova - $5.4 million
Masahiro Tanaka - $5.1 million
Hiroki Kuroda - $3.7 million
Brian Roberts - $1.7 million

And here we have the only three players that have actually earned more money on the field than is shown on their paychecks...

Kelly Johnson - $4 million
Michael Pineda - ~$4.6 million
Brett Gardner - $13.2 million

Now, to be fair, here are a couple of notes...
  • The only players that I can see earning enough money on the field to make their contracts pay off for the Yankees are Jacoby Ellsbury, Hiroki Kuroda, and Masahiro Tanaka. However, I wouldn't bet on Tanaka as I don't see the team bringing him back early enough to get it done. If they were in the playoff hunt then I might say otherwise, but as things stand now (both in the standings and seeing what the team is doing on the field) I wouldn't count on it.
  • Yes, the Yankees were only on the hook for $5 million of Soriano's $18 million salary for 2014. However, even if you look at it that way, Soriano still cost the team $11.3 million this season.
  • Did anybody actually believe that Kelly Johnson earned his money? Wow.
Let's hope that the Yankees do a better job of constructing a lineup before the 2015 season than they did before. And at the same time, let's hope that Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, CC Sabathia, and Mark Teixeira play better. Oh, not to mention Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, and CC Sabathia (again) staying healthy.

Boy... that's a lot of hope. 

Thursday, February 20, 2014

What Should the Yankees Batting Order Be This Season?

CHARLIE NEIBERGALL/AP

The Yankees go into the 2014 season with a dramatically different lineup than they did last year. They upgraded the outfield by going from the likes of Ichiro Suzuki and Vernon Wells, to Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, and a full season of Alfonso Soriano. Brian McCann steps in as the new starting catcher, a huge improvement there both offensively and defensively.
Still, the infield has become an absolute mess with the departure of Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano. Replacing them are Kelly Johnson and Brian Roberts, who has played just 192 games since 2010. They have to count on Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter to be healthy yet they played just a combined 32 games last year. 
So, while they are much better than last year, they seriously lack the centerpiece that they had in Cano. They'll probably be more balanced, given the speeds of guys like Ellsbury and Brett Gardner and the power of McCann and Soriano. But still, not having that main guy is going to be problem, as none of these guys are entirely a guarantee. 
Based on splits vs. LHP/RHP, I've constructed what I think the lineup should be. Now, it probably won't happen, as it's more than likely Jeter will bat at the top of the order behind Ellsbury because it's Derek Jeter. 

vs. RHP
Dale Zanine, USA TODAY Sports

CF Jacoby Ellsbury (.328/.374/.489/.863)
LF Brett Gardner (.285/.357/.410/.767)
RF Carlos Beltran (.315/.362/.509/.871)
1B Mark Teixeira (.239/.331/.438/.770)*
C Brian McCann (.266/.357/.512/.869)
DH Alfonso Soriano (.236/.278/.456/.735)
SS Derek Jeter (.294/.346/.377/.723)*
3B Kelly Johnson (.218/.295/.429/.723)
2B Brian Roberts (.227/.303/.362/.665)
* using the splits from Jeter and Teixeira's last full seasons, both in 2012. 
Ellsbury and Gardner should be able to set the table quite easily against righties. Beltran and McCann both hit 17 homers off RHP last year and now their swings will be perfect for Yankee Stadium. Teixeira probably hits LHP better but he will still obviously try to hit it into the short porch batting left-handed. But it'll be interesting to see if Soriano and Jeter will still be able to be consistent given their advanced ages. 

vs. LHP
COREY SIPKIN/NEW YORK DAILY NEWS
CF Jacoby Ellsbury (.246/.323/.318/.641)
SS Derek Jeter (.364/.399/.542/.941)*
1B Mark Teixeira (.269/.333/.531/.865)*
DH Alfonso Soriano (.293/.349/.555/.904)
RF Carlos Beltran (.252/.281/.448/.729)
C Brian McCann (.231/.279/.337/.616)
2B Brian Roberts (.284/.327/.441/.768)
3B Kelly Johnson (.291/.337/.349/.686)
LF Brett Gardner (.247/.317/.427/.744)
* using the splits from Jeter and Teixeira's last full seasons, both in 2012. 
On the flip side, this lineup is going to have a huge problem trying to hit lefties this season. Other than Teixeira, Jeter, and Soriano (none who are givens), all struggle against them in the last few seasons. Johnson has one of the weirdest splits I've ever seen. Last year he hit for a bad average but hit 16 homers vs RHP, but hit .291 vs LHP but for zero homers. Roberts hit lefties very well in 77 games last season.


Saturday, December 7, 2013

Current Projected Lineup (Updated)

After a whirlwind of action this week, the Yankees look very different from last year's projected lineup:

2013 Starting Lineup (as was planned):

1) Jeter - SS
2) Cano - 2B
3) Teixeira - 1B
4) Rodriguez - 3B
5) Granderson - CF
6) Hafner - DH
7) Suzuki - RF
8) Cervelli - C
9) Gardner - LF

Of course that starting lineup ended up looking like this on Opening Day:

1) Gardner - CF
2) Nunez - SS
3) Cano -2B
4) Youkilis - 1B-3B
5) Wells - LF
6) Francisco - DH
7) Suzuki - RF
8) Nix - 3B
9) Cervelli - C

3 of the projected starters were actually on the field at the start of the 2013 season.

Compare the 2013 injury-filled season in which the team went 85-77 (not bad really) with this MONSTER LINEUP that looks nothing like the 2013 edition:

2014 Projected Starting Lineup:

1) Jacoby Ellsbury - CF
2) Derek Jeter - SS
3) Carlos Beltran - RF
4) Alfonso Soriano - DH
5) Brian McCann - C
6) Mark Teixeira - 1B
7) Kelly Johnson - 3B
8) Brandon Phillips - 2B (yeah, I said it!)
9) Brett Gardner - LF

Bench: Nunez, Ryan, Romine, Suzuki, Wells...one of them won't be here much longer and since they just signed Ryan to an extension it won't be him...

2014 Projected Rotation:

Kuroda
Sabathia
(Tanaka)
Nova
Pineda

Umm...has anyone else noted that every starter's name would end in an 'A'?  Elias Sports Bureau needs to verify this, but I believe that would be a first for Major League Baseball...

What is your projected starting lineup?

Post in the comment section...