Jordan Zimmermann vs. Jeff Samardzija The Ultimate Showdown

Two of the top free agent starting pitchers have come off the board and a whole lot of money has been handed out. The two starting pitchers we will showcase today are Jordan Zimmermann and Jeff Samardzija as we try to analyze which team will get the most bang for their buck. Will it be Detroit who signed Zimmermann for just five years and $140 million or will it be San Francisco who signed Samardzija for five years and $90 million? You're immediate answer will likely be Zimmermann but you may be jumping the gun just a tad.

Neither of these arms are especially old and neither of these arms have an absolute ton of miles on them. Zimmerman is just 29 years old and has thrown 1094.0 IP in his career with the Washington Nationals. Including his postseason numbers, 12.2 IP total, you see that Zimmermann has thrown a total of 1106.2 IP and thrown over 200 IP just two times. Meanwhile Samardzija is 30-years old and has compiled just 991.2 IP in his career thanks to a career in College Football that delayed his entrance into Major League Baseball. Samardzija is raw but he gets the edge on both projectability and for the lack of miles on his arm. Samardzija could turn into an absolute ace and stud in San Francisco with that spacious ball park and speedy outfielders behind him or he could flame out and become the next bust of a free agent signing. It’s like buying a lottery ticket with Samardzija where as you basically know what you’re going to get with Zimmermann. His stats are declining at an alarming rate and I don’t believe switching from a division that sported three of the worst teams in MLB in 2015 (remember all the head-to-head matchups within the division) to the American League and the AL Central specifically is going to bode well for Zimmermann or the Tigers. If Samardzija is like buying a lottery ticket Zimmermann is like going to a dead end job with no chance of advancement, pay raise or rise in responsibilities. You’re going to go every day and you’re going to make ends meet but the price of gas is going to go up, insurance is going to go up, food prices are going to go up and there is nothing you can do to stop it or improve it, you’re stuck for life and you grow miserable by the day.

I may have been a little hard in my analogy for Zimmermann, and it’s no knock against him personally, but I can’t see the deal working out as well as the Tigers hope. The saving grace for Zimmermann is that his deal is only for five years but for the sake of this showdown so is Samardzija’s. Both teams had to sacrifice a draft pick to sign their man but the Giants will give up a first round pick for Shark, the Tigers first round pick (9^th overall) is protected and will only sacrifice a second round pick for Zimmermann. This means a lot in a league and in an era that has never been more reliant on cost-controlled players and the use of your farm system. Zimmermann lost in a big way in the last debate but he gains some of that back with the draft pick compensation. Also it is worth mentioning that Zimmermann is not trending downward, neither is Samardzija after having one of the worst seasons in the American League in 2015, at least not yet. One down or bad season is not a trend, if it repeats in 2016 and beyond THEN it’s a trend.

Finally, the projections. Does Baseball Reference expect either of these men to bounce back in a big way or will it be more of the same next season?

Samardzija:

Year	Tm	Age	W	L	ERA	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W
2016	Proj.	31	8	11	4.19	189.0	187	95	88	23	49	1.249	8.9	1.1	2.3	7.7	3.31

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Zimmermann:

Year	Tm	Age	W	L	ERA	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W
2016	Proj.	30	12	8	3.43	181.0	175	75	69	18	37	1.171	8.7	0.9	1.8	7.6	4.11

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Based on the projections alone it looks like Zimmermann has the edge here but at the end, who wins? Is it the man who is likely to suffer from the league switch, has more mileage on his arm and signed for more money? Or is it the raw starting pitcher that might have just proven why Zimmermann is not the ideal choice in 2016 after struggling in his switch from the National League to the American League? I honestly think, and this is my personal opinion and projection so bear with me, that Samardzija will benefit from the switch back to the National League. Some of Samardzija’s best seasons were with the Chicago Cubs in a small hitter-friendly ballpark. Can you imagine Samardzija not only facing the pitcher’s spot three times a game but facing the pitcher’s spot three times a game in one of the biggest parks in all of baseball? Zimmermann isn’t exactly pitching in a band box himself up in Detroit’s Comerica Park but I truly think the AL-to-NL switch will be more severe than Detroit had expected. I’m not saying Zimmermann is going to fall off the map but I didn’t say he was going to live up to his $110 million either.

Samardzija wins… by a hair… a lot of hair. 

David Price vs. Zack Greinke The Ultimate Showdown

The Ultimate Free Agency Showdown. Two of the best available starting pitchers on the market and two of the best pitchers in 2015 go head-to-head on this Friday to see which team got the better end of the stick here. Was it the Boston Red Sox who signed David Price to the biggest deal ever handed out to a starting pitcher at seven years and $217 million? Or was it the Arizona Diamondbacks who shocked the league by signing Zack Greinke to a six year deal worth $205 million giving Greinke the largest average annual value ever recorded in Major League Baseball at 34.4 million?

First and foremost the age of these two starting pitchers is a big key and the mileage on their arms is another factor that must be considered when deciding a winner. Price is 30 years old and Greinke is 32 but Price signed a seven year deal that runs through his 37^th birthday while Greinke only signed for six years taking him through his age 38 season. Signing pitchers through their age 38 season is never ideal, not that 37 years old is much better, so can I say push? Please? The mileage though is another concern as Price has 1441.2 (eight seasons) IP on his left arm while Greinke has racked up 2094.2 IP (12 seasons) in his career. Adding in postseason play you can tally another 63.1 IP on Price’s arm and 58.1 on Greinke’s arm. The Price deal scares me because I, as a Yankees fan, have seen the big left-hander with a ton of mileage come over on a huge deal only to flame out after three or four seasons of it, his name is CC Sabathia. Sure Price has an opt-out clause after three years, CC had one too, but Price is not going to exceed the contract he currently has at 33 years old. Not going to happen, don’t bank on it. Meanwhile Greinke’s deal is shorter and therefore less of a risk in my opinion. Greinke gets the edge but I am pretty glad that neither are wearing pinstripes in 2016, not for that salary. 

The environment in which these two pitchers will pitch in is especially important in this showdown. Many wondered, mostly Boston-based beat writers and bloggers, if the racism that is so blatant in Boston would derail Price from the beginning. I’ve never been to Boston and I would never generalize an entire town and fan base based on the ignorant acts of a few but I didn’t, the Boston beat writers did. Price is a fiery guy and I can see where some racist slurs or comments would get to him and negatively affect him. I don’t pretend to know Price personally but people who likely do, or somewhat do, are questioning it so it would worry me if I was a Red Sox fan. Meanwhile Grienke’s battle with anxiety, which is now medically treated FYI, is well documented but shouldn’t be a problem overall on the West Coast and in Arizona. Even as the highest paid player in Major League Baseball history, AAV wise anyway, Greinke gets the slight edge here as well.

The final piece we’ll look at is projections. Baseball Reference does a great job of projecting players every single offseason and we’ve used their information many times already this winter. If anything the site undervalues and under-shoots guys a lot of the times so keep that in mind when checking out these projections.

Price:

Year	Tm	Age	W	L	ERA	IP	H	R	ER	HR	SO	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W
2016	Proj.	30	13	8	3.09	195.0	179	76	67	18	193	1.128	8.3	0.8	1.9	8.9	4.71

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Greinke:

Year	Tm	Age	W	L	ERA	IP	H	R	ER	HR	SO	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9	SO/W
2016	Proj.	32	15	6	2.54	191.0	158	58	54	16	175	1.058	7.4	0.8	2.1	8.2	3.98

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Neither pitcher looks likely to fall off in the first year of their new deals nor are the stats really worth mentioning since they are so comparable. The thing about free agency is though is you have to look beyond the 2016 season to the 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and seasons beyond. No one knows how these deals will work out in three years or more but if you’re going to take an educated guess it looks like the Arizona Diamondbacks will be a little happier with their decision than the Boston Red Sox will be. Well unless David Price gets greedy and opts out, then Boston and Price for the win.