SD - Ian Kennedy
Kennedy is no longer the 20 game winner he was with the Arizona Diamondbacks but he's a good enough pitcher to decline the is qualifying offer and not think twice about it. Kennedy, the former Yankees prospect, will not regret it either.
SD - Justin Upton
Upton fits the same mold as Kennedy in my opinion. He isn't a 30 home run threat anymore but he's an essential lock for 20-25 home runs and 100 RBI in the right lineup. Upton is on the right side of 30-years old and will likely receive the biggest contract of his career to date this offseason. That all starts with the decline of the qualifying offer.
TEX - Yovani Gallardo
Gallardo fits the borderline mold of accepting or declining the qualifying offer, although I'm leaning towards him declining. Gallardo isn't an ace but he is an essential lock for 180+ innings and at least a 2.0+ WAR. That's not one-year deal material, he declines ultimately.
SEA - Hisashi Iwakuma
Iwakuma actually wants to stay in Seattle, reportedly, or at least on the West Coast as close to his home land of Japan as possible. At 34-years old, 35-years old shortly after the 2016 season begins, Iwakuma may opt to take the almost double amount of salary on a one-year deal to stick in Seattle and close to home. ACCEPT.
WAS - Ian Desmond
Desmond struggled for much of the 2015 season but he has the ability to be a plus offensive weapon at shortstop, traditionally an offensive anemic position. Desmond will reject the offer and some team will give Desmond a good contract, either as a shortstop or a second baseman.
WAS - Jordan Zimmermann
Zimmermann is likely the best pitcher on the market, he denies it and cashes in huge.
TOR – Marco Estrada
Estrada had a breakout season in 2015 and seems unlikely to
accept a contract offer. Truth be told I’m not sure if anyone expects Estrada
to replicate his 2015 season in 2016 and beyond, looking at his stat page it
looks to be more of the exception than the rule, but there will be a few teams
willing to go three years or longer on him leaving the decision to decline the
offer an easy one to make.
CHW – Jeff Samardzija
Samardzija will most definitely decline the offer. When
teams like the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox desperately need top of the
rotation type pitchers and are willing to bank on his live arm while ignoring
the stats you will sign more than one year and $15.8 million.
KC – Alex Gordon
Alex is fresh off a World Series victory and is coming from
a team where he could boast that he was one of the main and better offensive
contributors on the team. Gordon, along with Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer,
led the Royals offense to two consecutive World Series trips and to one World
Series title making his decision to decline the offer an obvious one in my
opinion.
STL – Jayson Heyward
Heyward is potentially looking at 10-years and $200 million
or more. He’s the most obvious player to decline the offer in my opinion.
STL – John Lackey
Lackey is a man of his word and pitched without making
trouble for only $500K this season with the St. Louis Cardinals. The raise from
$500K to $15.8 million is a substantial one and I think it is one that Lackey
will make when he is the first ever to accept a qualifying offer.
CHC- Dexter Fowler
This one I am truly on the fence about. I want to say that
Fowler declines the offer but a part of me, maybe a gut feeling, believes he
accepts the offer. The other 29 teams won’t be exactly beating down his door to
sign him, not that he’s a bad player by any means, especially at an AAV
approaching $16 million. Am I allowed to call for a push?
NYM- Daniel Murphy
Murphy went from the goat of the New York Mets to the
G.O.A.T of the Mets in about eight at bats this postseason. He’s declining that
offer and some sucker will sign him expecting similar results, look at the
regular season and postseason splits for Pablo Sandoval and look at the
contract the Boston Red Sox gave him. He declines.
BAL – Matt Wieters
Wieters is an interesting case. Wieters missed a significant
chunk of time in 2014 and 2015 after having Tommy John surgery and never truly
recovered from it in my opinion. His defense and specifically his ability to
limit would-be base stealers has decreased along with his offensive production.
About the only thing working in Wieters favor though is the fact that the
catching position is basically anemic offensively across the league with a few
obvious exceptions. Wieters will likely decline the offer and will likely land
a modest deal in the neighborhood of three years but one thing we know for 100%
fact, Wieters will not go to the New York Yankees as Buck Showalter predicted.
I just love bringing up instances of Showalter being wrong, don’t mind me.
BAL – Chris Davis
Chris Davis led the world in home runs in 2015 putting to
sleep all the rumors, allegations and questions regarding his power and output
after being suspended for illegal drug use in 2014. Davis was suspended for
Adderall use in 2014 and responded in a big way in 2015. No way he accepts it,
Davis is going to get paid for every single one of those home runs he hit this
season and then some.
BAL – Wei-Yin Chen
Chen is not an ace. Chen is left-handed and likely a
middle-of-the-rotation type starter for most American League teams. The thing
working in Chen’s favor though is that he’s been the ace for the Baltimore
Orioles for two seasons now and is American League East and postseason tested.
That alone will net him more than one year and $15.8 million. He’ll likely get
a deal somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-years and $85 million in my opinion
so he will decline.
HOU- Colby Rasmus
When I predicted the qualifying offers on the blog before
the season officially ended one of my Twitter followers actually called me an
idiot for saying that Rasmus would get one. He didn’t use those exact words,
and I’m not going to quote it because they don’t deserve the attention for
being a douche bag but I didn’t delete the tweet so it’s out there somewhere if
you want to look hard enough, but it was something along the lines of “only an
idiot would think Rasmus deserves a qualifying offer.” Well there’s at least
two idiots in the world, me and the owner of the Astros. Rasmus would be an
idiot to decline it, but he’s an idiot and will (he’s not an idiot, I was being
tongue in cheek to stick with the “idiot” theme).
LAD – Zack Greinke
So let me get this straight, he opts out of his deal worth
three years and $71 million to accept a qualifying offer? No one really thought
that, did they? He declines and receives a Clayton Kershaw-esque deal. Just not
from the Yankees.
LAD – Howie Kendrick
Kendrick plays a position that is dryer than the Nevada
desert in the middle of the day in July offensively. Kendrick, as far as this
free agent class goes anyway, is the Babe Ruth of second baseman so there is no
way he accepts the qualifying offer. No way.
LAD- Brett Anderson
Another one I caught flak about when I predicted him
receiving a qualifying offer and another one notched in the victory belt for
the Greedy Pinstripes. Anderson has a live arm, he always has, and finally put
it all together on the mound and in the training room. Anderson will try and
bank on the fact, literally, that he had a contract season and he absolutely
should. Anderson declines and some team, maybe even the Dodgers, signs him to a
longer term deal around three years or so.
