Game Thread: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles 9/16

And just like that ladies and gentleman it is time for baseball here in the Bronx between the New York Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles. For the third time in this series these two will square off head-to-head with Jordan Montgomery taking the ball for the Yankees and Jeremy Hellickson taking the ball for Baltimore. The game will be played at 4:05 pm ET inside Yankee Stadium and can be seen on the YES Network, MASN and MLB TV. You can also follow along in your cars and on the radio by tuning into the WFAN broadcast with John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman. You know, if you’re into that sort of thing.

Follow us on twitter by following @GreedyStripes and enjoy the game. Need a win, get a win and bury those birds. Go Yankees!!

Prediction: Yankees win 11-6

Game Preview: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles 9/16

Good morning ladies and gentleman, well I guess it is technically afternoon but whatever, and welcome to Saturday baseball here in the Bronx. Unfortunately I will have to miss this game this afternoon because of the wedding I will be attending this afternoon but I will be there in spirit as the New York Yankees look to take down the Baltimore Orioles in the third game of this four-game set. This series was a matchup of two teams that were heading in completely opposite directions and that is seemingly how this series has gone with the Yankees beating up on the Orioles on Thursday night and looking to do so again throughout the weekend. I’d say I feel sorry for Baltimore right now because as a Yankees fan I’ve been in their position but maybe partly for that reason I don’t feel bad. Or maybe I’m just heartless. Stay tuned to find out which one it is!!! Enjoy the game.

Montgomery hasn’t been sharp since coming back as a September call up leaving the Yankees to wonder if the lefty has hit an innings wall. In Montgomery’s last start the Yankees southpaw lasted just 3.1 innings against the Texas Rangers allowing three runs on three hits extending his streak of starts where he has not completed at least five innings to three. Let’s snap that streak this afternoon in the Bronx, shall we?

Hellickson on the other hand had a great start last time out despite allowing two home runs in the start. Hellickson logged a quality start for Baltimore but needs to strikeout more batters if he wants to be effective going forward. Over Hellickson’s last five starts the right-hander has not struck out more than two batters in any start meaning the Yankees should make plenty of contact this afternoon in the Bronx. Let’s hope the wind is blowing out to right field this afternoon.

The game will be played at 4:05 pm ET inside Yankee Stadium and can be seen on the YES Network, MASN and MLB TV. You can also follow along in your cars and on the radio by tuning into the WFAN broadcast with John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman. You can’t see all the thumbs down when the Yankees bash out a few more home runs but you can hear the amazing home run calls by the legendary Sterling when they happen, so there’s always that. Need a win, get a win and take another step towards October baseball at the Orioles expense. Win, win, win. Go Yankees!

So it Seems…. Becoming Baglio.

Good morning everyone. I hope everyone reading this on this beautiful Saturday morning is doing well. I am awake awfully early this morning for a Saturday but that is because today is becoming Baglio day. You’re confused, I know, so let me explain. My future sister in law, Kellie, is getting married today to a great man, Rob Baglio. Congratulations to them both and I couldn’t be happier for you both. Kellie, you will be the second most beautiful bride there ever was to take that majestic walk down that aisle, second only to your sister of course, and I hope for nothing but the best for you and for Rob not only today on your big day, but forever. I love you guys.

And my Kari, I love you. HEY YOU. 

Betances Fails The Late Night Show...

Credit:  Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Orioles 7, Yankees 6...

I've never been a big fan of Dellin Betances as closer and Tuesday night was Exhibit A.  I do not feel that he has the closer's mentality and his arm plays best in a prime setup role. His inability to throw strikes to Tim Beckham with two outs set up Manny Machado for the late night heroics with a dramatic two-run walk-off home run. I've felt all along that David Robertson should have been the interim closer but at this point, an argument could be made for the return of Aroldis Chapman.

In a game delayed by rain (game time was 9:15 pm Eastern), the Orioles scored first in the bottom of the first inning. Jonathan Schoop worked a two-out walk off Yankees starter CC Sabathia.  Adam Jones reached base on an infield single to third (a slow roller that hit the bag). During Trey Mancini's at-bat, a wild pitch by Sabathia that got away from Austin Romine allowed the runners to move up to second and third.  Mancini proceeded to hit a short dribbler to short. Didi Gregorius charged in to retrieve the ball but in the words of Michael Kay, he had to "eat it" when there was no play at either first or home. Schoop scored and the O's led 1-0.  

The Yankees erupted in the third inning against Orioles starter Jeremy Hellickson. Austin Romine led off with a single to left through the hole.  After Brett Gardner lined out to right, Aaron Judge walked and Starlin Castro was hit by a pitch to load the bases. Didi Gregorius lined a single to right which scored both Romine and Judge.  Judge slid in safely under the throw.  Matt Holliday walked to re-load the bases. The O's then pulled Hellickson and replaced him with former Yankee Richard Bleier. Greg Bird hit a sacrifice fly to center which scored Castro. An error by center fielder Adam Jones, he dropped the ball, allowed Bird to safely reach base and the bases were still loaded.  Todd Frazier grounded out softly to short with the only play the throw to first. Gregorius came home with the fourth run.  Jacoby Ellsbury was next and he singled up the middle to center to score Holliday and Bird. The Yankees were seemingly in control at 6-1.

Credit:  Patrick Semansky-Associated Press

Leading off the bottom of the 3rd, Manny Machado, the American League Player of the Month in August, gave a preview of coming attractions with his line drive home run to center.  The Yankees still led, 6-2, but it was statement by Machado that the game was not over.  

While the Yankees were struggling to get runners past second base, the O's added another run in the bottom of the 5th inning when Jonathan Schoop took Sabathia deep to left center for a solo homer.  

Sabathia pitched into the 6th inning but overstayed his welcome. Trey Mancini led off with a looper just over Todd Frazier's outreached glove for a single.  Mark Trumbo took advantage and blasted a two-run shot to left. It was a one-run game. After Chris Davis grounded out for the first out of the inning, the Yankees finally pulled Sabathia.  Tommy Kahnle took over and got the final two outs.

Girardi's formula was then to use David Robertson for the 7th and Aroldis Chapman for the 8th. Both men did their jobs. Each retiring the three batters they faced.  Unfortunately, after the big 3rd inning, the Yankees offense stalled. Their last chance came in the 8th when they had two men on base with only one out, but Aaron Judge struck out and Starlin Castro popped out to third in foul territory to strand the runners.

Fast-forward to the bottom of the 9th, Dellin Betances took over for Chapman and retired the first two batters. He needed just one more out which never came.  He couldn't throw strikes to Tim Beckham, walking him on a 3-1 count.  Manny Machado, swinging at a poorly placed high pitch from Betances, sent the ball over the wall in center field for the walk-off two-run home run.  

Credit:  Associated Press

The Yankees (74-64) lost ground to the Boston Red Sox. The Sox were trailing the Toronto Blue Jays 2-0 in the bottom of the 9th before tying the game and sending it into extra innings. They finally scored the walk-off run in the 19th inning to win the game and push the Yankees 3 1/2 games back. The Orioles moved back to 3 1/2 games behind the Yankees with the win.  The Los Angeles Angels leap-frogged the Minnesota Twins and trail the Yankees by 2 1/2 games in the Wild Card Standings. The Angels beat the Oakland A's, 8-7, in 10 innings, while the Twins fell to the Tampa Bay Rays, 2-1.

This is another game that the Yankees should have won. It would have been huge to win the first two games in Baltimore.  But it was not meant to be so hopefully the Yankees can rebound today. Rain is in the forecast throughout the evening so there's a strong possibility the game is called and pushed to Thursday. When the teams take the field, the Yankees must play like a team fighting for the post-season and avoid the mistakes that allow the opponent to capitalize. Moving Betances back to set up would be a start.

Odds & Ends...

Every time the Yankees add a player from Triple A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, I can't help but feel bad for RailRiders Manager Al Pedrique as his team prepares for its International League playoff series against the Lehigh Valley IronPigs. But then again, the RailRiders can raid from the Double A Trenton Thunder as 2B Billy Fleming will attest. I guess talent rolls up hill. The latest RailRider to exit the team is 1B/OF Tyler Austin who was promoted to the big league club prior to yesterday's game.  It makes more sense for Austin to provide outfield corner support than either Tyler Wade or Ronald Torreyes. Austin had two home runs the other day in the RailRiders' regular season finale.

Luis Severino's post on The Player's Tribune website entitled My Journey to the Bronx is a great read. It makes you feel proud and excited to be a Yankees fan. I didn't realize how close he came to being a Colorado Rockie. I am glad it didn't happen and that the opportunity to play for his favorite childhood team came to fruition.

Have a great Wednesday! Let's grab a win today at Camden Yards before the team jumps on a plane bound for the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex! Go Yankees!

2017 Qualifying Offer Predictions

Ten players received qualifying offers as the offseason before the 2017 MLB season began and like I do every year I want to take a stab at predicting who will accept and who will decline their offers. Now as you probably already know the qualifying offer is basically a one-year deal offer sheet worth $17.2 million that the player can either accept and return to his old team or decline in order to test free agency. If the player declines and signs with another team that team will lose their highest round draft pick (unless it’s a Top 10 protected pick) and the players former team will receive a sandwich pick as compensation in between the first and second rounds of the 2017 MLB Draft. Now you know so let’s get to the predictions.

Jose Bautista

Edwin Encarnacion

Yoenis Cespedes

Neil Walker

Dexter Fowler

Kenley Jansen

Justin Turner

Mark Trumbo

Ian Desmond

Jeremy Hellickson

Honestly, and I may even admittedly be reaching here, the only player I can see accepting a qualifying offer is Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson has come into his own as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies and while he may use that to cash in on the free agency market I just have a gut feeling that he may accept. I thought the same with players like Matt Wieters and Brett Anderson last year and I get the same gut feeling with Hellickson. It wouldn’t surprise me to see none of these players accept it but it would surprise me if anyone besides Hellickson did.

Players have until November 14^th to accept or decline their qualifying offers. 

More on the Rays Fire Sale

Last time we spoke about the potential fire sale that is about to go on in Tampa Bay I explained how my semi sarcastic comment claiming that a house cleaning was about to go down in Tampa was killed on Twitter. Well a Joel Peralta, Jeremy Hellickson and Cesar Ramos trade later and a Jose Molina DFA rumors are starting to circulate around more potential trade happenings with the Rays.

Over the weekend my folder full of news sites that I have bookmarked were loaded with potential Rays players being put on the block by Tampa. Some of these players included Matt Joyce, Ben Zobrist, and basically everyone else not named Evan Longoria and Alex Cobb (for now). This sure sounds like the team is ready to blow it up and start all over to me.

When the Rays announced two rookie managerial candidates in Raul Ibanez and Doug Glanville I knew the team was ready to start over. I just hope the person who killed me on Twitter for suggesting that it was coming after the team “traded their 7^th starter away” and a “terrible relief pitcher” see’s the error of his ways and acknowledges that maybe he isn’t the smartest Rays fan in the world. That’s all that I ask. 

Rays Having a Fire Sale?

"I'm taking your spot bro." - Evan Longoria

I made a semi-sarcastic comment on Twitter a few weeks back when I said that I felt like the Tampa Bay Rays were going to have a fire sale and I got absolutely killed by a few (presumably) Rays fans. This was shortly after the team traded relief pitcher Cesar Ramos, like I said I was being sarcastic, and were in talks of trading Jeremy Hellickson. Since then the team has saved a couple million by designating Jose Molina for assignment, saved a couple more million by trading away relief pitcher Joel Peralta to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and have made names like Matt Joyce available in trades. Kind of sounds like the beginnings of a fire sale, no?

This won't be a Florida Marlins fire sale, I can't see Tampa trading Evan Longoria, but I think we are in the beginning stages of it. If Tampa makes Ben Zobrist available, which they are expected to, and even consider listening on guys like Alex Cobb or Matt Moore my suspicions will be confirmed correct in my eyes. I can't say I'm disappointed that Tampa is possibly gearing up for a fire sale either, sell, sell, sell if you ask me.

New management, new GM, possibly a rookie manager in Raul Ibanez, if it looks like a duck...

Kuroda, Gardner Lead Yankees to Rubber Game Win in Tampa

Hiroki Kuroda surrendered just 2 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings and Brett Gardner connected on a big two-run single today as the Yankees beat the Rays, 4-2, in the rubber game of this three-game set.

In his start this afternoon, interestingly, Kuroda only struck out one hitter, a stat that usually indicates ineffectiveness. 

Fortunetaly, though, that wasn't the case in this one, with the veteran allowing just four total hits to get the W, his eighth of the year.

Yes, for the first four frames he was haunted by another rough bottom of the first in which Evan Longoria grounded Ben Zobrist home, but since the Yanks still found a way to rally off Tampa Bay's Jeremy Hellickson (5 IP, 3 ER) in their half of the fifth things did finish relatively stress-free for the visitors, who collected a trio in that at-bat when Gardner collected the aforementioned single and Jacoby Ellsbury drove him in with another knock. 

No, things weren't technically over at that point, but thanks to nearly-perfect relief from Shawn Kelley, Dellin Betances, and David Robertson as a well a solo homer by Mark Teixeira in the eighth they soon would be, with that performance by Robertson impressively earning him his 33rd save.

Best Rotation in the AL East?

Leading the charge in 2012

I read an article from Yahoo! Sports stating that, going into the 2012 season, the Tampa Bay Rays have the best rotation in the AL East. At first I wasn't really surprised to see that, but after reading the article and seeing that they only went over the top 3 in the Rays rotation, and then saw the rest of it almost as an afterthought, I decided to see how the Rays rotation stacked up against the Yankees rotation.

I chose Baseball Reference's version of WAR to compare all the pitchers. I'll admit that I don't quite understand how either B-R or Fangraphs do their WAR calculations, but I know they're different. So I took a shot and choose B-R. Hey, I had a 50/50 shot at which is better.

Here is the proposed 2012 rotation for the Rays, with their 2011 bWAR as well as some notes afterwards on whether we can expect an increase or decrease in that stat -

James Shields - 6.1 His career average bWAR in a season is 2.95, and being 30 years old I really don't think he can keep up that career high bWAR from last season. So I expect to see a drop.

Jeremy Hellickson - 4.2 Hellickson had a pretty low strikeout rate of 5.6, and coming into his 3rd season in MLB, I fully expect is bWAR to drop. I really think a bWAR of around 3.0 sounds about right.

David Price - 3.7 David's bWAR in 2010 was a 5.3, and generally a rookie pitcher does very well due to the "surprise factor". I mean, it's hard to prepare for a pitcher you've never seen before. But even though I don't see him being a 5.3 pitcher again, I think getting up to around 4.5 is reasonable.

Jeff Niemann - 1.1 After 3+ seasons in MLB I believe we've seen him strikeout as many as he ever will, even though his strikeout rate has gone up in each of the last three years. Coupling that with the fact he had the same bWAR in 2011, I don't see any change happening here.

Wade Davis - .2 Wade had a bWAR of 1.8 in 2010, and in 2011 his strikeout rate dropped for the 3rd straight season. Although I'm not totally convinced he'll have a higher bWAR in 2012, I'll go ahead and assume he will to be on the safe side.

Let me point out that there's a good chance that Matt Moore could be in the rotation for the majority of the season for the Rays. He did throw 164.1 innings last year (combined majors + minors), so theoretically he could throw around 200. However, I read the chat transcript over at MLBTR where Tim Dierkes implied that Matt wouldn't have a full workload for Tampa Bay. Seeing his innings go up from 123 in 2009 to 144 in 2010, I can see where the Rays may limit him a bit.

So what about the New York Yankees projected rotation in 2012?

CC Sabathia - 6.9 CC has had an average bWAR of 5.4 with the Yankees, and that 6.9 is his career high. So a reduction is to be expected. Although judging by his three-year average I don't see it going down by much.

Hiroki Kuroda - 3.7 Hiro's bWAR in 2010 was 2.5, and coupled with the fact he's moving to a much tougher league/division, I don't think I'm alone in expecting his bWAR to go down a bit in 2012.

Ivan Nova - 3.6 So far in MLB Ivan's strikeout rate has been 5.4, and that bothers me a bit. Not to the point that I'd like to see the Yankees shop him in a trade or something, but I don't see how he continues where he left off from last season.

Michael Pineda - 2.8 Although Robinson Cano's friend is moving to a tougher division, he was still in the American League, his strikeout rate is pretty high, and it's hard not to see a 23 year-old improving.

Phil Hughes/Freddy Garcia - 0.0/3.4 I'm going to go ahead and use their average bWAR as a guess as to what either one will do in 2012, because I see Freddy's going down while Phil's would go up. So a 1.7 sounds about right.

Notice that I'm assuming AJ Burnett is not going to be on the team, and therefore would not affect things. Call it wishful thinking or what-have-you, but I'm leaving AJ out of it.

Above I lined up the pitchers based on their 2011 bWARs, and I'm going to keep it that way in the head-to-head part here. The winner of each battle is in bold.

CC Sabathia vs. James Shields

Hiroki Kuroda vs. James Hellickson

Ivan Nova vs. David Price

Michael Pineda vs. Jeff Niemann

Phil Hughes/Freddy Garcia vs. Wade Davis

The second match-up was no mistake, as I can see both men being equal to one another. So at this point it looks like the New York Yankees have the better rotation going into 2012. However, we have to remember that Matt Moore could be around for 175 or so innings, and if we use him instead of Wade Davis I'd have to give the edge to the Rays pitcher.

So in conclusion, I believe that the Rays and Yankees 2012 projected pitching rotations are even. Perhaps that's not the conclusion Yankee fans were looking for but keep this in mind... the Bombers scored 160 more runs than the Rays last season, and I don't see that changing.