BOLDLY Predicting the MLB Trade Deadline: American League Central

The July 31^st trading deadline is fast approaching here for the 2018 MLB season, so let’s take the chance to post a few bold predictions for every team in the American League Central before the deadline next Tuesday. Enjoy, and leave your comments and thoughts below in the comments section.

 

The Chicago White Sox will trade Jose Abreu, James Shields, Joakim Soria (traded to Milwaukee after this was written), and Avisail Garcia. The day the White Sox move Abreu will be a sad day for all their fans involved as he has become a fan favorite of the fans for his tenure with the team. Chicago is in the midst of a rebuild though and there are plenty of teams looking for first base help making a trade to a contender likely. While there are many teams that are looking for help at first there are even more teams looking for help with their pitching staffs, specifically in the starting pitching variety. James Shields won’t net the White Sox a Top 10 prospect by any means, but he could be a good consolation prize for the team’s that miss out on Chris Archer, Jacob deGrom, JA Happ (Yankees) or any other pitcher that could possibly be moved. Teams are always looking for bullpen help and Soria, a proven veteran closer, will be dealt to a contender either as a closer or as a setup man (ultimately went to the Milwaukee Brewers). The Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers could be in on Soria’s services. Avisail Garcia is unlikely to be moved as many teams are set on outfield help, but the White Sox will most certainly be fielding calls and offers for him in the meantime.

The Cleveland Indians need an outfielder and a fifth starter, and it makes you wonder if two names I just mentioned would interest them, Avisail Garcia and James Shields. While both names would make sense on paper I cannot see the Indians settling with James Shields in a potential playoff rotation. Instead I could see Cleveland going after Zach Wheeler of the New York Mets to fill their void. Wheeler will likely cost the Indians a Top 10 prospect or more but would propel the team into the American League pennant conversation along with the Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros and the New York Yankees. Cleveland could also take a waiver on Garcia of the White Sox, but it seems more likely that the team would go outside the division and acquire someone like Curtis Granderson from the Toronto Blue Jays instead. That seems like a similar deal to the Jay Bruce deal that the Indians pulled off with the New York Mets circa 2017.

The Detroit Tigers could trade Nick Castellanos, Mike Fiers, Shane Greene or Leonys Martin as we inch towards the July 31^st trading deadline. Greene, the team’s closer, is fresh off the disabled list and will likely come attached to many doubts as to if he can hold up for the rest of the season, but ultimately a team like the Atlanta Braves or the Philadelphia Phillies will likely take a waiver if the price is right. I am leaning towards Castellanos remaining with the Tigers past the July 31^st trading deadline, but I would not put it out of the realm of possibilities to see him traded before the August 31^st waiver wire trade deadline. Fiers and Martin will be moved in lesser deals, but Michael Fulmer will remain with the organization at least through the end of the season after landing on the disabled list earlier this month.

The Kansas City Royals will trade Mike Moustakas, Whit Merrifield and Danny Duffy before the trade deadline as the team continues to revamp their farm system and rebuild from within. Moustakas could draw trade interest from any team that needs either third base or first base help and, in my opinion, will ultimately end up with the Colorado Rockies as a first baseman. Meanwhile, any team who needs bench and utility help will likely be in the market to acquire a player like Whit Merrifield. Teams that come to mind include the Boston Red Sox, the Chicago Cubs, and the Philadelphia Phillies to name a few teams. Duffy has not been stellar, but I truly believe the Royals will benefit from the lack of strong starting pitchers in this year’s market. Duffy will be a team’s second or third option, but a switch to the National League and a switch to a pitcher friendly ballpark like the one out in Arizona could make all the difference for both the Diamondbacks, and for Duffy himself.

The Minnesota Twins will trade Brian Dozier, Kyle Gibson, Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke. I already predicted that the New York Yankees would acquire Gibson, but there would be plenty of teams lining up for his services and his extra year of team control if he were to be made available like we are hearing. Dozier is a true rental and a veteran second baseman that most teams would like on their team for the playoff stretch run, but ultimately, I see the Los Angeles Dodgers winning in a bidding war for his services. Every contender for the most part needs bullpen help, and I can see a veteran like Fernando Rodney helping a young team in the National League, see the Atlanta Braves or the Philadelphia Phillies as good examples of potential landing spots, while Duke, a left-handed reliever, could land with a team like the Chicago Cubs.

Disclaimer: BOLD predictions are meant to be BOLD for a reason. Keep that in mind before directing hate mail towards me or any of my writers on the blog or on Twitter. Thanks in advance. 

Andrew Miller for Stephen Strasburg Makes Sense Unfortunately

The New York Yankees are being aggressive as the GM meetings begin and the offseason kicks off in fashion. Brian Cashman is said to be on the phone and meeting with every GM across the league and has stated that no one is safe in the Bronx, the Bronx may be burning. Cashman mentioned one player by name specifically that either excited or infuriated many fans when they learned that he could potentially be shopped and/or traded and that was Yankees closer Andrew Miller.  As much as I don’t want to admit it to myself the deal that is being floated around, whether it be by the beat writers or the fans themselves, that would send Yankees closer Andrew Miller to Washington heads up for Stephen Strasburg makes sense for both teams… and I’m prepared to tell you why.

Before we get too in-depth with this let me put out a short disclaimer. I don’t want to trade Andrew Miller. Closing games in New York is not like closing games anywhere else and I don’t just believe that any closer can do it. I believe Dellin Betances could do it, mind you, but trading away a player that is meeting or exceeding his contract seems redundant on THIS team with so many who aren’t. Whether I want to let the fact that I am a fan of Miller’s or not cloud my judgement remains to be seen but I am level-headed enough to admit the deal makes sense.

The Yankees need an ace, bottom line. They have a ton of good pitchers that could be great but right now they don’t have that one guy that can stop a losing streak almost each and every time. Luis Severino could be that guy and up until now Masahiro Tanaka has been acting like that guy but Strasburg has all the makings to be that guy. Sure he’s been injury prone thus far in his career, some pitchers react differently to Tommy John surgery both mentally and physically, and sure he hasn’t lived up to the hype but it’s not often that #1 overall talent from the MLB Draft becomes available, especially to the Yankees. Acquiring Strasburg would give him and the Yankees a one-year audition and quite a long time to decide whether they want to offer him a qualifying offer or sign him to a contract extension after 2016.

The Yankees could take that money they cleared from the Miller contract and sign one or two relievers to “replace” him. Darren O’Day could come in and pitch the 8^th inning with Betances sliding into the 9^th inning role while New York fills out their bullpen with Adam Warren, Justin Wilson, Chasen Shreve and maybe a Joakim Soria or a Tony Sipp.

The deal makes sense and on paper and makes the team better on paper but that doesn’t necessarily mean the deal sits well with me. I’m a fan, I can’t help it. 

The Free Agency Royal Rumble Returns – Relief Pitchers

The New York Yankees quest for the ultimate “Super Bullpen” will continue in 2016 with the presumed returns of Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, Justin Wilson, Chasen Shreve and Adam Warren but could the Yankees add one more piece to the puzzle? Possibly two? For the four competitors in tonight’s Free Agency Royal Rumble you better hope so or all this will have been for nothing.

Entering the ring first is the favorite, former Baltimore Orioles right-handed pitcher Darren O’Day. O’Day would kill two or three birds with one stone, pun intended, as it would piss off Buck Showalter, which is always fun, while also making the Yankees better and the Orioles inherently worse. Opposing O’Day is Ryan Madson of the Kansas City Royals who is rebuilding his value after finally making it all the way back from Tommy John surgery and the final two competitors in tonight’s rumble, or more like a battle royal to be completely honest, are Tyler Clippard and Joakim Soria.

Both Clippard and Soria are former closers who wouldn’t mind having the closing role back, for obvious financial advantages, and decide to work together in trying to get out of the ring. Neither Clippard nor Soria want the job or the pressure of pitching in New York and put up relatively no fight to Madson who hits them both with his American League Championship ring. And then there were two…

Madson stands tall in front of O’Day but the side-throwing right-hander catches Madson off guard and socks him back to the rope. Madson, now 36-years old, cannot keep the younger and more energetic O’Day off him long enough to stage a comeback and eventually finds himself over the top rope and onto the floor eliminated from the competition.

No opposing team, and I mean no opposing team, in Major League Baseball wants to see this bullpen. Not even on their worst day. Miller, Betances, O’Day, Wilson, Shreve, Warren. Lights out, game over and start spreading the news.

Whitley's Six Scoreless Innings, Headley's Walk-Off Single Lift Yankees to 14-Frame Win Over Rangers

To many fans, myself included, a player doesn't officially become a Yankee until he wins a game with a big hit.

No, that thought process isn't completely fair, although it is fun to use, as it somewhat accurately measures how exciting someone is.

For example, in tonight's contest against the Rangers, the newest guy on the team helped put together a much-needed 2-1 W, one that didn't get entertaining for a while.  

After nobody scored in frames 1-12, both sides finally crossed home in the thirteenth, as J.P. Arencibia took David Huff deep to left center and Jacoby Ellsbury singled home Brett Gardner, costing Texas' Joakim Soria a save. 

Following those long-awaited thrillings, Jeff Francis, making his Bomber debut, tossed the bullpen's seventh scoreless inning, setting up what would be a very memorable bottom half.

To start off the significant at-bat, Ichiro grounded out, Brian Roberts doubled, and Francisco Cervelli moved him to third with another knock, bringing the recently-acquired Chase Headley to the plate.

Having replaced Zelous Wheeler in the bottom of the eighth, Headley quickly worked the count to 1-1 against the Rangers' Nick Tepesch, before suddenly lining one into shallow left field.

Originally, the ball looked like it might get caught, something that fortunetaly didn't end up happening, with it eventually short-hopping into Jim Adduci's glove to bring home Roberts. 

The hit, Headley's only on the night in four at-bats, brought more meaning to Chase Whitley's six shutout frames, and ended what was a marathon of a contest.

What is necessarily pretty? No (the Yankees blew a lot of chances throughout), but since it did end up finishing positively you can't help but like what happened, as it brought the Pinstripes' record to 51-48 and their number of games back in the wild card standings to 1.5, a respectable amount. 

Joakim Soria Signs With Texas

According to Ken Rosenthal, Joakim Soria has agreed to a two-year deal with the Rangers.

Darn, I really wanted to see the Yankees work out a deal with Soria.

Ryan Madson Comes Off The Board

One of the two formerly elite closers that underwent Tommy John surgery last year came off the board, as the Angels came to terms on a 1 year contract with Ryan Madson worth $3.5 million, with another $2.5 million in roster bonuses (meaning how many days he's on the active roster) and yet another $1 million based on incentives (games finished).

This is a good sign for the Yankees, and for fans such as myself that want the team to bring Joakim Soria on board. Soria has already said that he's willing to set-up for Mariano Rivera, and seeing that it could simply take a one year deal I really hope Brian Cashman and Co. is looking hard at the guy. Joakim had a poor 2011 campaign, in which he put up an ERA of 4.03, but that could have been due to his elbow as he had an ERA of 2.01 over the previous 4 years.

Joakim Soria Interested In Setting Up For Mariano Rivera

Joakim Soria kind of showed his cards today when he came out and said that he would be interested in being the Yankees set up man, setting up Yankees (unofficially) closer Mariano Rivera. Soria's agent Oscar Suarez confirmed Joakim's interest in an interview with ESPN earlier today. Soria is not expected to be ready until May of 2013, although June of 2013 would not be out of the question given our luck, so I do not know if this is posturing for a bigger contract elsewhere to close or if he is sincere but either way I think this is worth kicking the tires on. It is not like he is going to sign for a huge deal, a multi year deal, and if he wants to be on the Yankees that bad maybe even would settle for a non guaranteed contract. Wishful thinking I know but either way I at least give Soria a call. Could you imagine a bullpen with Joakim Soria, David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain, Boone Logan, and the great Mariano Rivera? That's greedy.... and I like it.

The Closing Situation After Soriano Opted Out

This was not what Yankee fans wanted to see in January of 2011.

It's funny how things work out. When Rafael Soriano signed that 3 year contract before the 2011 season, Yankee fans such as myself were left thinking "WTF?" Sure, if Mariano Rivera did something silly like tear up his knee shagging fly balls during batting practice, the contract would make sense. But what are the chances that's going to happen? Meaning we'll all be left dreaming that Rafael would opt-out of the deal after the 2012 season.

Here we are now, and it turns out Soriano did opt out of his contract, after having saved 42 games for the Yanks in 2012. So now we're left hoping that either Rivera returns for another season, in the face of reports that he's thinking of leaving the game, or Brian Cashman can figure something else out. Well I'm too impatient to wait for Cashman, not to mention this little blog here needing material, so I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at the free agent closers myself.

So let's start with Soriano... Is he worth re-signing anyway? Well, without thinking about a contract, I doubt there's a Yankee fan on the planet that wouldn't want Soriano to return to the team. It's not as if Rafael's numbers this season were above anything he's ever done in his career. His walk rate was actually a bit higher than his career mark (3.2 walks per 9 innings, compared to a career number of 2.9), his strikeout rate was right in line with his career (9.2 in 2012, and 9.4 in his career), and he gave up a few more hits than he has in his career (7.3 hits/9 compared to 6.5 hits/9 in his career).

But what will he demand as far as a contract? Would it be something like the 3 years and $27 million that the Miami Marlins gave to Heath Bell, a year after Bell had finished his 3rd straight season with 42+ saves, and an ERA below 3.00? That would actually be kind of funny, since Rafeal would have made more than half that in 2013 alone with the Yankees (the Yanks would have paid him $14 million for 2013). There's not a big age different between the two men either, as Soriano will be entering his age 33 season while Bell was going into his age 34 season. I'm totally spitballing here, but I can see Rafael wanting a deal of 4 years and $50 million (an AAV of $12.5 million). And seeing those numbers, I think Brian will look around at other options.

In the immortal words of Rod Tidwell, Rafael says "show me the money!"

So what are those other options? Well, take a look...

Jonathan Broxton
Broxton had surgery on his throwing elbow a little over a year ago to remove bone spurs and other loose bodies. He came back to pitch in 2012 with the Royals and Reds, putting up a total ERA of 2.48 with 27 saves (23 for KC, 4 for CIN). Unfortunately, on top of missing a few games with should soreness in 2012, his strikeout rate didn't bounce back to what it  was in a couple of years ago. He's an interesting option, but doesn't come without some red flags.

Matt Capps
Matt's had a number of issues with his throwing arm since 2009. Elbow, shoulder, wrist, forearm, culminating with a 2012 in which he missed 79 games due to shoulder inflammation. He struck out 7.3 batters per 9 innings in 2010, but has seen that number dip to only 4.7 and 5.5 the following two years. I my opinion you'd be crazy to trust him as your closer in 2013.

Ryan Madson - $11MM mutual option with a $2.5MM buyout
Looking at the numbers from 2009 to 2011, you'd think any team needing a closer would be all over Ryan. During those three years he had an ERA of 2.79, saved 47 games (32 of which were in 2011), had a strikeout rate of 9.65, and a walk rate of 2.41. The one reason I have to say "no" to him is a big one... Tommy John surgery on April 11th of last year. There's a chance he's ready for Opening Day, but I don't want to count on him as the Yankees new closer. I'd be interested in a one year deal to see how he bounces back after the surgery, but certainly not as Soriano or Rivera's replacement.

Brett Myers
Brett's career average strikeout rate is 7.3 per 9 innings, which is higher than we've seen from his since 2008, and it was a lowly 5.6 this past season. Although his walk rate isn't astronomically higher, that 2.1 per 9 innings is much worse when he doesn't miss many bats to go with it. And he's not as experienced as a closer either, as the 19 saves he saw with the Astros last season were his first saves since 2007.

Fernando Rodney - $2.5MM club option with a $250K buyout
Rodney has a fantastic season with the Rays in 2012, putting up a very low .60 ERA and .777 WHIP in 74.2 innings pitched. So right there you'd say "bingo", assuming Tampa Bay didn't pick up their club option. But when you look at the peripheral stats the picture on Fernando becomes clearer. Rodney had a strikeout rate of 9.2 per 9 innings, which was about 2 batters more than he had between 2009 and 2011. His walk rate was a very nice 1.8 per 9, but that was about 3 batters less than in 2009 and 2010 (I skipped 2011 because he had lower back issues, which likely skewed his numbers). And when I see a batting average on balls in play against of .225, I can't help but think the guy got pretty lucky in 2012.

Joakim Soria 
Joakim and Ryan Madson are in the same boat. Both men have had extraordinary numbers when healthy. Between 2009 and 2011 Soria struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings, and walked 2.47 per 9, while earning an all star bid, and Cy Young and MVP votes in 2010. Another resounding "yes" for a team that is looking for a closer. But the problem with Joakim is that, along with Madson, had Tommy John surgery the past April. Like Ryan, Joakim may be ready for Opening Day, but I have a hard time trusting him to close for the team all season. He's another guy that I wouldn't mind the team signing.

Jose Valverde
What's good about Jose is that he hasn't spent a single day on the DL since 2009, so he has that going for him. Another good thing is that Jose's seen his walk rate drop in each of the last 3 seasons, going from 4.6 to 4.2 to 3.5 per 9 innings, it's still on the high side. Unfortunately his strikeout rate also fell in each of the last three years, going from 9.0 to 8.6 to 6.3. And after seeing him implode this past postseason, giving up 9 earned runs in only 2.2 innings of work, from the ALDS through the World Series, I would hardly be excited to have him in New York next year.

Yeah, the lack of good options gave me that same look.

After looking at all the free agents, I really hope Mo returns for one more season (at least). For starters, I'm not sure I like the idea of even committing to Soriano for 3 years, let alone the 4 he'll probably want. And other than Rafael, the only two free agent closers that I'm intrigued by are just coming off of Tommy John surgery (Madson and Soria). The two guys already with the team that have closing experience, David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain, haven't exactly "killed it" in save situations. Robertson had 3 blown saves in 5 chances last season, and has 8 blown saves in 13 chances for his career. Joba isn't any better, having blown 6 saves out of the 10 chances he's had in his career. Mind you, those are pretty small sample sizes, but they don't help to instill a ton of confidence in them for 2013 should they get the closing gig.

This is definitely a story that I and other Yankee fans will be keeping a close eye on throughout the offseason.