What the Yankees Can Do if “Tyler Clippard Sucks”

The whole “fill in the blank with the players name Sucks” campaign has really been a running joke here on the blog since the days of Stephen Drew manning second base in the Bronx. Then, admittedly, it was meant to be an insult because Drew was just absolutely terrible for New York but it has since evolved into more of a sarcastic way of saying that the player is struggling. Some players take these struggles and build on them and get better while others let the big lights, the media scrutiny and the fans get to them before folding under the pressure. Which one of these will Tyler Clippard be and what can the Yankees do if Tyler Clippard Sucks going forward? 

The Yankees have a few options, the first option should be to take Clippard out of these high-leverage situations. Let Clippard rebuild some of his confidence in the 6^th inning or with a huge lead or deficit and stop letting him enter in close games for a while. Let Adam Warren have those big innings when he returns from his injury or let Dellin Betances have more than one inning, just don’t let Clippard have them for a while. He needs a confidence boost and letting games get away like he did on Monday against the Angels isn’t helping. 

If you don’t trust Clippard and his track record, and just for the record I do but playing Devil’s Advocate helps write articles and can be fun sometimes, then there seems to be plenty of presumably available relievers out there on the trade market. When looking at who could potentially be available and who isn’t the first thing you look at is the team’s record which will usually tell you if the team will be a buyer or a seller at the deadline. Then you look at that particular team’s bullpen for standout arms with good statistics which brought me to this list of arms the Yankees could potentially look at.  

Pat Neshek of the Philadelphia Phillies will be moved because at the time of this writing he is pitching to a sub-1.00 ERA while the Phillies are on pace for their worst season in the history of Major League Baseball. Not far behind the Phillies are the San Diego Padres in terms of wins and losses despite the efforts of 27-year old left-hander Brad Hand. Hand is under team control until 2020 though so this would likely require a nice package of prospects if he were to be made available. The final arm that looks all but likely to be traded will be right-hander Ryan Madson of the Oakland Athletics who has been pitching well out in the Oakland Coliseum. Entering this week Madson had pitched to a 2.63 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00. 

The Miami Marlins could make or break the trade deadline this year as the team seems to be undecided on whether they will be buyers or sellers. If the team buys then there are at least two arms that come off the potential trade board but if the team decides to sell the Yankees could look at one or both of former Yankees right-hander David Phelps and AJ Ramos. Phelps, like he was with the Yankees, has been the swingman for the Marlins since the Martin Prado trade three seasons ago while Ramos has posted huge strikeout numbers (12.4 K/9) in 2017 despite having an ERA over 4.00.

Stay tuned.

The Yankees Decision to Forego Tommy John Surgery w/ Masahiro Tanaka. Good Idea or Bad Idea?

When the New York Yankees decided to sign Masahiro Tanaka out of Japan a couple years back I doubt there were many Yankees fans that were happier than I was. I loved the idea of not only getting greedy and getting the top pitching arm on the free agent market but I also loved the fact that he was young, dominant and from Japan. See the Yankees had seemingly shied away from Japanese pitchers after the Hideki Irabu and Kei Igawa debacles and for them to jump back into the pool and jump in face first into the deep end made me happy. So you can imagine how disappointed I was when I learned that Tanaka had a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right throwing elbow, usually a diagnosis like this is followed by the need for Tommy John surgery, and you can imagine how cautiously optimistic, yet extremely skeptical, I was when the team announced they would try a rest and rehab program rather than going under the knife. We are now almost two full seasons removed from that decision giving us enough of a sample size to determine whether the Yankees made the right choice avoiding the knife or if they should have went ahead and got the surgery done. 

I will preface any talk of Tanaka with the fact that every elbow is different, every tear is different and every injury is different. I only use comparisons in this post to show a similarity and possibility that the decision to not undergo surgery could have been the right one. With that said I just want to remind everyone that Ervin Santana had a similar diagnosis and has never required the surgery, the same can be said for the Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez who also pitches with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament. One pitcher who eventually had the surgery, but it wasn’t until years later, was Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals so it’s not like the Yankees just flew by the seat of their pants on this decision, especially considering five doctors including the team doctor and Tommy John specialist Dr. James Andrews suggested the rehab program. 

All that and a buck buys you a coke if Tanaka doesn’t pitch well but thankfully for the Yankees he has done just that. Heading into his start today Tanaka has posted the following stat line in his Major League career via Baseball Reference: 

Year	Age	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	FIP	WHIP	H9	HR9	BB9	SO9
2015	26	12	7	3.51	24	24	1	154.0	126	66	60	25	27	139	114	3.98	0.994	7.4	1.5	1.6	8.1
2016	27	8	4	3.32	23	23	0	146.1	136	61	54	14	27	120	127	3.33	1.114	8.4	0.9	1.7	7.4

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Do those stats look like the stats of a pitcher who is holding back and nursing an injury to his elbow? If so can you imagine how good he would be if he had undergone the surgery? Which I will also warn you of the fact that no surgery is 100%, see Ryan Madson as a recent example of pitchers who struggle for years to come back from what many fans think is a routine surgery. Every elbow is different, every ligament is different and every injury is different. The rehab program will work for some, and in my opinion has worked for Tanaka, but for others it won’t. That’s life and that’s baseball but I think, for now anyway, we can finally put the rest the debate of whether the Yankees made the right decision or not skipping the surgery. It looks like they did make the right decision and the team, and Tanaka himself, are benefiting from it. 

The Free Agency Royal Rumble Returns – Relief Pitchers

The New York Yankees quest for the ultimate “Super Bullpen” will continue in 2016 with the presumed returns of Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, Justin Wilson, Chasen Shreve and Adam Warren but could the Yankees add one more piece to the puzzle? Possibly two? For the four competitors in tonight’s Free Agency Royal Rumble you better hope so or all this will have been for nothing.

Entering the ring first is the favorite, former Baltimore Orioles right-handed pitcher Darren O’Day. O’Day would kill two or three birds with one stone, pun intended, as it would piss off Buck Showalter, which is always fun, while also making the Yankees better and the Orioles inherently worse. Opposing O’Day is Ryan Madson of the Kansas City Royals who is rebuilding his value after finally making it all the way back from Tommy John surgery and the final two competitors in tonight’s rumble, or more like a battle royal to be completely honest, are Tyler Clippard and Joakim Soria.

Both Clippard and Soria are former closers who wouldn’t mind having the closing role back, for obvious financial advantages, and decide to work together in trying to get out of the ring. Neither Clippard nor Soria want the job or the pressure of pitching in New York and put up relatively no fight to Madson who hits them both with his American League Championship ring. And then there were two…

Madson stands tall in front of O’Day but the side-throwing right-hander catches Madson off guard and socks him back to the rope. Madson, now 36-years old, cannot keep the younger and more energetic O’Day off him long enough to stage a comeback and eventually finds himself over the top rope and onto the floor eliminated from the competition.

No opposing team, and I mean no opposing team, in Major League Baseball wants to see this bullpen. Not even on their worst day. Miller, Betances, O’Day, Wilson, Shreve, Warren. Lights out, game over and start spreading the news.

Matt Moore & the Cautionary Tale of Tommy John Surgery

The New York Yankees went against the grain a bit last season when they learned that their 25 year old ace Masahiro Tanaka had a less than 10% tear in his ulnar collateral ligament. Instead of putting Tanaka under the knife to get the UCL replaced while having the right-hander miss not only the remainder of the 2014 season but much of the 2015 season the Yankees took the road less traveled. Tanaka and the Yankees, under the advice and supervision of not one but five doctors including the team doctor and Dr. James Andrews, the Tommy John surgery specialist, decided to try and rest and rehab program hoping that the ligament would heal on its own avoiding the surgery. The Yankees were killed for this decision by the media and the fans and every hanging curve ball or every loss for Tanaka leads to outrage about not getting the surgery, even though it was the right decision not to.

There have been more than a few pitchers who have tried to rest and rehab the UCL rather than going under the knife but only a couple have actually had any success with it. Ervin Santana followed the same path and has never needed the surgery to date while Adam Wainwright went years without needing the surgery. Tanaka has been so far so good on the elbow since the rehab, despite what you read on Twitter after a bad outing, making the Yankees and that team of doctors look better and better every single start. The main reason behind the decision, at least in my opinion, was because while the TJS success rate is as high as it has ever been the surgery is far from 100%. Look at Matt Moore of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Moore was demoted back to the minor leagues and Triple-A over the weekend after continuing to struggle on the mound this season. Moore is in his first season removed from the Tommy John surgery and will head to the minors looking to sort out his issues. Moore has posted a 1-3 record in six starts since returning from the DL and has failed to go past five innings in any of the starts. Moore is just the most recent example, Ryan Madson has been trying to work his way back from Tommy John surgery for parts of four seasons now with limited success. The surgery is not 100% and even if it was 99% effective you want to avoid the knife if you can, the Yankees did that and I commend them for it. 

Were the Yankees in on Ryan Madson?

The Kansas City Royals locked up relief pitcher and former Philadelphia Phillies closer Ryan Madson over the weekend which begs the question, was Brian Cashman involved? Cashman has been seemingly stockpiling bullpen arms for a couple of seasons now and is not above a reclamation project on a minor league deal, see Andrew Bailey, so it makes you wonder if the Royals simply flew under the radar for Madson’s services.

The 34 year old signed a minor league deal with Kansas City with an invitation to spring training even though he has not thrown a pitch in the major leagues since 2011. Madson posted a 4-2 record with a 2.37 ERA and 29 saves with Philadelphia during that season and signed a one year deal with the Cincinnati Reds the following season before undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Madson attempted a comeback with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim last season but made just one appearance in A-Ball before hurting his elbow once again. Madson is now in the Royals organization and could likely add to that three headed monster they have over there if healthy which makes me wonder again, was Cashman involved at all or did he drop the ball?

Either way it’s not a huge loss or gain probably but I personally just like having the finances and the ability to stash a reclamation project in the minor leagues so we can have another Jon Lieber every once in a while. Carry on. 

Yankees Are "Monitoring" Joel Hanrahan & Ryan Madson

Okay it is now 100% official, Brian Cashman or SOMEONE inside the Yankees organization reads The Greedy Pinstripes and my posts, they have to. If you look HERE when I spoke about dumpster diving I mentioned the Yankees taking a waiver on the likes of Andrew Bailey, who recently signed with the team, Ryan Madson, Kevin Gregg, Oliver Perez, and Joel Hanrahan. Today news breaks that the Yankees are continuing to "monitor" Hanrahan after signing Bailey and are also looking at Madson. Are they simply signing up any former Boston Red Sox they can or am I next in line for a position inside the Yankees organization? Interesting...

Andy Martino broke the story on The Daily News that the Yankees recently sent scouts out to watch Ryan Madson throw. While the Yankees were impressed with his showcase they seem to think his price is "excessive" which means in Hal talk that he wants a Major League contract.

Hanrahan had Tommy John surgery last season and seems ready to contribute now or as late as May, not at mid season or later, and the Yankees and Mets are watching him closely. Hanrahan is entering his age 32 season and had the surgery in May so he is still nine months out from that surgery and also getting some bone chips cleaned up and getting his flexor tendon repaired. Hanrahan is already throwing off a mound and may be the best free agent option left that could be had for little to nothing and the Yankees need to pounce and pounce now.

If Brian Cashman Wants To Dumpster Dive, Do It Right!

The Yankees addressed their needs in the starting rotation, in the lineup, and somewhat touched on the infield but what about the bullpen? That same bullpen that lost Mariano Rivera, Boone Logan, and Joba Chamberlain and has done nothing to replace them. The Yankees have gone over the luxury tax yet again and are now content to dumpster dive to fill the roster and provide the team with depth. If the Yankees and general manager Brian Cashman want to dumpster dive for the bullpen they at least need to do it right, pay attention. The longer the offseason goes on and the closer we get to the pitchers and catchers reporting, which is Friday February 14 by the way, the more likely it is that the Yankees can steal a couple of guys on cheap deals or minor league deals. I can't wait to see how these new acquisitions will affect the odds on the different betting sites listed at MyTopSportsbooks.com

Ryan Madson is 33 years old and, although two years removed from it due to arm injuries, has closing experience with the Philadelphia Phillies. During Madson's last full healthy season in 2012 he put up 32 saves, posted a 2.37 ERA, and pitched in 60 games. Madson is said to be hitting 93 MPH on the gun this offseason and finally looks healthy again.

Kevin Gregg closed games for the Chicago Cubs last season and although his ERA was high, 3.48, he still saved 33 saves in 62 innings pitched. Gregg is also 36 years old so he comes with experience closing with many teams including AL East teams the Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles. Gregg also only allowed six home runs in 2013 in a very home run friendly Wrigley Field in Chicago so he could translate well into Yankee Stadium in a 7th or 8th inning role. Plus he punched David Ortiz in the face, how could that hurt?

The Yankees don't necessarily need another left handed option with Cesar Cabral, Matt Thornton, and Manny Banuelos already in the fold but Oliver Perez has revitalized his career as a left handed specialist in the bullpen the last couple of seasons. Perez has a 2.93 ERA the last two seasons in 82.2 IP and has only allowed seven home runs, albeit in a pitcher friendly park. If we brought Perez to camp though I could see the Yankees dumping Thornton all together, here's to wishful thinking.

Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan can be combined here as they are both former closers, both former Red Sox players, and both coming off injuries to their arms. Bailey is still only 29 years old and Hanrahan is still 32 years old which means neither are old or have too many miles on their arms. Bailey, before coming to Boston, had 75 saves in his first three seasons and a 2.18 ERA before he became the heir apparent to Jonathan Papelbon. Hanrahan had 76 saves the two seasons before he was a Red Sox with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Hanrahan was acquired to replace the injured Bailey only to lose his 2013 season to injury.

All of these men could come on minor league deals with invitation to spring training or very low risk one year deals with incentive laden contracts thus making them all attractive. With the closers role still technically up in the air and the Yankees bullpen looking rather thin on paper we could also offer interesting and attractive offers to these men. If Brian Cashman wants to dumpster dive sign more of men like these and less Cole Kimbal's please.

Minor League Deal Options For 2014: Ryan Madson

Ryan Madson has had a roller coaster of a career in the past couple seasons going from the highest of highs to the lowest of lows. It started when the Philadelphia Phillies were prepared to offer Madson a big money long term contract to be their closer only to hand former Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon a big money long term contract a few weeks later leaving Madson high and dry. Later is was revealed that Madson would need Tommy John surgery and would miss the entire 2012 season but not before signing a one year deal with the Cincinnati  Reds that he would never earn, not pitching a single pitch for the Reds. Madson would sign a one year deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim before the 2013 season and started the season on the disabled list still recovering from his Tommy John surgery. Madson was released on August 5th and seems unlikely to have a real impact in the majors this season making me think of him as a low risk high reward option for the 2014 season.

Madson will be entering his age 33 season in 2014 and two full seasons removed from his Tommy John surgery but with a value as low as you can get right now it may be time for the New York Yankees to pounce. It is no secret that the Yankees will lose both Mariano Rivera and Joba Chamberlain to free agency and possibly Boone Logan as well and it would not hurt for the Yanks to have some insurance waiting in AAA. After failing to come back at all, let alone healthy and effective, in 2012 I believe Madson is primed to accept a minor league deal this coming off season. With all the question marks concerning the Yankees bullpen after this season and the lack of a real veteran presence outside of David Robertson the Yankees may be an attractive landing spot for Madson. Madson will be fully healthy and can use the 2013 season to build value, prove that he is healthy, and have a real shot at winning the World Series. The Yankees get a veteran arm for cheap and possibly can offer him a qualifying offer after 2014 if all goes well. Sounds like a no brainer to me so Ryan where do you sign?

The Closing Situation After Soriano Opted Out

This was not what Yankee fans wanted to see in January of 2011.

It's funny how things work out. When Rafael Soriano signed that 3 year contract before the 2011 season, Yankee fans such as myself were left thinking "WTF?" Sure, if Mariano Rivera did something silly like tear up his knee shagging fly balls during batting practice, the contract would make sense. But what are the chances that's going to happen? Meaning we'll all be left dreaming that Rafael would opt-out of the deal after the 2012 season.

Here we are now, and it turns out Soriano did opt out of his contract, after having saved 42 games for the Yanks in 2012. So now we're left hoping that either Rivera returns for another season, in the face of reports that he's thinking of leaving the game, or Brian Cashman can figure something else out. Well I'm too impatient to wait for Cashman, not to mention this little blog here needing material, so I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at the free agent closers myself.

So let's start with Soriano... Is he worth re-signing anyway? Well, without thinking about a contract, I doubt there's a Yankee fan on the planet that wouldn't want Soriano to return to the team. It's not as if Rafael's numbers this season were above anything he's ever done in his career. His walk rate was actually a bit higher than his career mark (3.2 walks per 9 innings, compared to a career number of 2.9), his strikeout rate was right in line with his career (9.2 in 2012, and 9.4 in his career), and he gave up a few more hits than he has in his career (7.3 hits/9 compared to 6.5 hits/9 in his career).

But what will he demand as far as a contract? Would it be something like the 3 years and $27 million that the Miami Marlins gave to Heath Bell, a year after Bell had finished his 3rd straight season with 42+ saves, and an ERA below 3.00? That would actually be kind of funny, since Rafeal would have made more than half that in 2013 alone with the Yankees (the Yanks would have paid him $14 million for 2013). There's not a big age different between the two men either, as Soriano will be entering his age 33 season while Bell was going into his age 34 season. I'm totally spitballing here, but I can see Rafael wanting a deal of 4 years and $50 million (an AAV of $12.5 million). And seeing those numbers, I think Brian will look around at other options.

In the immortal words of Rod Tidwell, Rafael says "show me the money!"

So what are those other options? Well, take a look...

Jonathan Broxton
Broxton had surgery on his throwing elbow a little over a year ago to remove bone spurs and other loose bodies. He came back to pitch in 2012 with the Royals and Reds, putting up a total ERA of 2.48 with 27 saves (23 for KC, 4 for CIN). Unfortunately, on top of missing a few games with should soreness in 2012, his strikeout rate didn't bounce back to what it  was in a couple of years ago. He's an interesting option, but doesn't come without some red flags.

Matt Capps
Matt's had a number of issues with his throwing arm since 2009. Elbow, shoulder, wrist, forearm, culminating with a 2012 in which he missed 79 games due to shoulder inflammation. He struck out 7.3 batters per 9 innings in 2010, but has seen that number dip to only 4.7 and 5.5 the following two years. I my opinion you'd be crazy to trust him as your closer in 2013.

Ryan Madson - $11MM mutual option with a $2.5MM buyout
Looking at the numbers from 2009 to 2011, you'd think any team needing a closer would be all over Ryan. During those three years he had an ERA of 2.79, saved 47 games (32 of which were in 2011), had a strikeout rate of 9.65, and a walk rate of 2.41. The one reason I have to say "no" to him is a big one... Tommy John surgery on April 11th of last year. There's a chance he's ready for Opening Day, but I don't want to count on him as the Yankees new closer. I'd be interested in a one year deal to see how he bounces back after the surgery, but certainly not as Soriano or Rivera's replacement.

Brett Myers
Brett's career average strikeout rate is 7.3 per 9 innings, which is higher than we've seen from his since 2008, and it was a lowly 5.6 this past season. Although his walk rate isn't astronomically higher, that 2.1 per 9 innings is much worse when he doesn't miss many bats to go with it. And he's not as experienced as a closer either, as the 19 saves he saw with the Astros last season were his first saves since 2007.

Fernando Rodney - $2.5MM club option with a $250K buyout
Rodney has a fantastic season with the Rays in 2012, putting up a very low .60 ERA and .777 WHIP in 74.2 innings pitched. So right there you'd say "bingo", assuming Tampa Bay didn't pick up their club option. But when you look at the peripheral stats the picture on Fernando becomes clearer. Rodney had a strikeout rate of 9.2 per 9 innings, which was about 2 batters more than he had between 2009 and 2011. His walk rate was a very nice 1.8 per 9, but that was about 3 batters less than in 2009 and 2010 (I skipped 2011 because he had lower back issues, which likely skewed his numbers). And when I see a batting average on balls in play against of .225, I can't help but think the guy got pretty lucky in 2012.

Joakim Soria 
Joakim and Ryan Madson are in the same boat. Both men have had extraordinary numbers when healthy. Between 2009 and 2011 Soria struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings, and walked 2.47 per 9, while earning an all star bid, and Cy Young and MVP votes in 2010. Another resounding "yes" for a team that is looking for a closer. But the problem with Joakim is that, along with Madson, had Tommy John surgery the past April. Like Ryan, Joakim may be ready for Opening Day, but I have a hard time trusting him to close for the team all season. He's another guy that I wouldn't mind the team signing.

Jose Valverde
What's good about Jose is that he hasn't spent a single day on the DL since 2009, so he has that going for him. Another good thing is that Jose's seen his walk rate drop in each of the last 3 seasons, going from 4.6 to 4.2 to 3.5 per 9 innings, it's still on the high side. Unfortunately his strikeout rate also fell in each of the last three years, going from 9.0 to 8.6 to 6.3. And after seeing him implode this past postseason, giving up 9 earned runs in only 2.2 innings of work, from the ALDS through the World Series, I would hardly be excited to have him in New York next year.

Yeah, the lack of good options gave me that same look.

After looking at all the free agents, I really hope Mo returns for one more season (at least). For starters, I'm not sure I like the idea of even committing to Soriano for 3 years, let alone the 4 he'll probably want. And other than Rafael, the only two free agent closers that I'm intrigued by are just coming off of Tommy John surgery (Madson and Soria). The two guys already with the team that have closing experience, David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain, haven't exactly "killed it" in save situations. Robertson had 3 blown saves in 5 chances last season, and has 8 blown saves in 13 chances for his career. Joba isn't any better, having blown 6 saves out of the 10 chances he's had in his career. Mind you, those are pretty small sample sizes, but they don't help to instill a ton of confidence in them for 2013 should they get the closing gig.

This is definitely a story that I and other Yankee fans will be keeping a close eye on throughout the offseason.