My New Offseason Plan

Yes, I already did an offseason plan post, but I can't help but keep thinking about how the Yankees could do things this offseason to get ready for another run at a World Series in 2021.

Besides, I'm not a prospect person at all, so I can't write about that. I could write reactions to news, but nothing has happened that I can't sum up my reactions to on Twitter (@Bryan_TGP). I'm allowed to change my mind, after all. Right? 

So let's jump right into this.

In my previous plan, I talked about bringing back DJ LaMaheiu and signing Michael Brantley and Trevor May Rosenthal. I'm sticking with those signings, and if you want to read about those things then check out my previous article. I talk about the future of Clint Frazier in that article too, which is still apropos to what I'm doing this time around.

I'm going to start things off with something that may not be very exciting, but can pay off big-time due to injuries or resting players... the bench. More specifically, the backup infielder. Remember that Tyler Wade and Thairo Estrada combined for 157 at-bats last season, and hurt the offense a hell of a lot more than they helped. I really don't want to see something like that again in 2021.

I like the idea of getting Tommy La Stella for the same reason that the Yankees signed DJ LeMaheiu a couple of years ago, but I don't see that happening. One, Tommy is coming off two really good seasons where he hit to a 118 OPS+ and a 127 OPS+. Whereas, before signing that 2 year $24 million contract, LeMaheiu's previous two seasons saw OPS+s of just 93 and 88. So La Stella would likely cost more than the Yankees are willing to spend for a utility player. Besides, I'm sure many teams will be willing to not only give Tommy more money but also regular playing time.

But I don't think any of us want to see either Thairo Estrada or Tyler Wade as the backup infielder next season. To be fair to Thairo, I'm not giving up on him, but he certainly has some work to do before getting any more MLB at-bats. On the other hand, I'm ready for the Yankees to give up on Wade. Tyler's speed is a great weapon, but how many times next year would we say "I wish we had Tyler Wade right now"? Not many.

So no La Stella, no Estrada, and no Wade. Then who? I say, Jonathan Villar.

Villar is coming off a poor season in 2020, where he was a below-average hitter for the Marlins and a very below-average hitter for the Blue Jays. However, he wasn't a bad hitter in the previous two seasons, and I'm banking on him getting back there in 2021. For any of you that would miss Wade's speed off the bench, you'll be happy to hear that Jonathan isn't a slouch on the basepaths, either, as he stole 40 bases in 2019. And Villar is also a switch-hitter, which Aaron Boone could add to the lineup, helping more with an unbalanced lineup.

As for his versatility, Jonathan Villar has played a ton at both shortstop and second base in his career. The Marlins even had Villar play 10 innings in centerfield last season. Mind you, he's no wizard at either position, but he's solid enough that I wouldn't get anxious whenever a ground ball was hit in his direction.

So the Yankees have signed LaMaheiu, Brantley, May, and Villar. Not bad so far, but there's more work to do. The starting rotation is still full of question marks, and the bullpen could use a bit more oomph as well. 

We've heard a lot about signing guys like Trevor Bauer, Charlie Morton, and other top of the rotation pitchers. Recently there have been rumors that the Yankees have been talking about reuniting with Masahiro Tanaka. I actually like a lot of those ideas, and wouldn't be upset them happening. But I have other ideas.

The first thing I'd like to see happen is trading for Joe Musgrove.

Musgrove has turned into a heck of a starter for Pittsburgh, raising his strikeout rate last year to a very impressive 12.5 per nine innings. Joe also throws a lot of ground balls, which is always a welcome sight in Yankee Stadium. He doesn't throw his fastball very hard, but the spin rate of that pitch is very nice. And when you combine that with killer breaking pitches, I think he'd make a very fine addition to the starting rotation. Oh, and Musgrove will turn 28 next month, while still being two years away from free agency.

So what would it take to get him? Well, it won't be cheap. Mind you, the Pirates have made some poor trades recently (the Chris Archer deal may go down as one of the worst in history), but I'm going to use the analyzer at Baseball Trade Values.

In that case, I see a trade of Clint Frazier and Luis Gil for Joe Musgrove.

The addition of Musgrove alone would make for a fine starting rotation, but I don't want the Yankees to take any chances this coming season and beyond. I've seen way too many injuries, and way too many poor performances in big games, to do anything close to settling. And I'm not going to trust Luis Severino returning from Tommy John surgery around midseason, and being a top of the rotation starter right away. That's not typically how pitchers come back from that procedure. As much as I like Clarke Schmidt and Deivi Garcia, I'm not ready to lean on them that much in 2021, either. And after missing all of this past season, who knows how Domingo German will look when he returns?

Okay, I'm cheating a bit here. I talked about acquiring this pitcher in my last prediction post, but when it comes to who I'm trading for him I changed things up. 

The Yankees trade Miguel Yajure and Oswald Peraza for Lance Lynn.

Clint Frazier for Lynn was a massive overpay. I honestly don't know what I was thinking on that one. That doesn't mean Lynn hasn't been among the better pitchers in baseball for the past couple of years. But he is 33, only has one more season under contract, and is coming from a team that clearly wants his $8 million ($10 million AAV) off the books next season. It's not like the Texas Rangers are going to contend in 2021, so keeping Lance around would be a stupid idea. I suppose they could hold off until the trade deadline, but I think Texas would be much happier moving him and his salary sooner than later.

I spoke about reasons for acquiring Lance Lynn in my previous article, so I'm again going to ask you to go there if you want to check that out. 

For the longest time, the Yankees have had one of the better bullpens in baseball. That changed in a big way in 2020, when the Yanks had the third-worst bullpen in the American League (going by fWAR). And we watched that bite them in the ass over and over again. 

I'm not giving up on Adam Ottavino, but I don't want to go into next season leaning on him for any big outs. The previously mentioned addition of Trevor May could very well be enough to make the Bombers bullpen a force again but like the rotation... I'm not risking anything. It's time we go for the jugular. 

Trade Miguel Andujar, Estevan Florial, and Roansy Conteras for Josh Hader.

Since Hader's MLB debut in 2017, he's thrown 223.2 innings with an ERA+ of 171. His strikeout rate in his career is a silly 15.3 batters per nine innings. And his career ERA is 2.54. I'm not going to get into reasons for wanting to have Josh Hader on the Yankees, because there's not a baseball team on this planet that wouldn't want to acquire his services.

For that reason, trading for him will not come cheap. Especially since Hader is not eligible for free agency until after the 2023 season, meaning the Brewers may want to hold onto him since they could contend within the next few years. But I think he can be gotten, as I'm sure the Brewers would be interested in cutting his approximate $6 million salary from their payroll.

Milwaukee has plenty of holes in their lineup, and having among the worst farm systems in the league isn't going to help fill them much at all. So they're surely going to need some help from other organizations in order to rebuild. And the three players I'm sending to the Brewers, who will help in the infield, outfield, and on the mound, would definitely catch their attention. 

I don't think I have to defend adding either Florial or Conteras to this deal. I'm sure both men have their fans, but neither of them will be greatly missed. Andujar, on the other hand, may get some resistance for being dealt. Many fans, myself included, believe Miguel will bounce back next season and end up having a fine career. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him in a handful of All Star teams in the future. But the emergence of Gio Urshela, as well as a packed outfield, and the designated hitter spot mainly being filled by Giancarlo Stanton for the next seven years, leaves no place for Andujar. I've even mentioned first base as a possible position for him, but I'd rather keep the reigning AL home run champ over there.

So here's a summary of the moves I'd like to see made...

1. Sign DJ LaMaheiu - 5 years $90 million
2. Sign Michael Brantley - 3 years $51 million
3. Sign Trevor May Rosenthal - 3 years $21 million 2 years $14 million
4. Sign Jonathan Villar - 1 year $5 million w/ club option
5. Trade Clint Frazier and Luis Gil for Joe Musgrove
6. Trade Oswald Peraza and Miguel Yajure for Lance Lynn 
7. Trade Miguel Andujar, Estevan Florial, and Roansy Contreras for Josh Hader

Those moves would leave the Yankees with the following active roster...

Lineup

1. DJ LeMahieu - 2B

2. Aaron Judge - RF

3. Michael Brantley* - LF

4. Luke Voit - 1B

5. Giancarlo Stanton - DH

6. Aaron Hicks# - CF

7. Gio Urshela - 3B 

8. Gary Sanchez - C

9. Gleyber Torres - SS

Bench

Kyle Higashioka - C

Jonathan Villar# - 2B/SS

Michael Tauchman* - OF

??? (revolving door)

Starters

Gerrit Cole

Lance Lynn

Joe Musgrove

Deivi Garcia

Jordan Montgomery*

Relievers

Aroldis Chapman*

Zack Britton*

Josh Hader*

Chad Green

Trevor May Rosenthal

Adam Ottavino

Jonathan Loaisiga

Luis Cessa

Injured

Luis Severino

*left-handed batter/pitcher

#switch-hitter

Notes

-Clarke Schmidt and Domingo German stay stretched out while starting in AAA

-Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Ben Heller non-tendered

Since the Yankees care about money these days, I can't wrap things up without talking about how much that team would cost. 

I mentioned in my previous article that, after the Luxury Tax, the Yankees would have paid a total of $282.1 million for their players last season. That includes players on the 40-man but not on the active roster, player benefits, etc. This season, after those things as well as $2.5 million for Brett Gardner's buyout (I suppose he could be brought back again and put into that one bench spot) and $3 million from Miami for Stanton since he didn't opt-out, the total after the Luxury Tax in 2021 would be about $252 million. That would be around $30 million less than in 2020, which would hopefully be enough to keep Hal and the other owners happy.

MLB Focus Begins to Shift to 2021...

 

Life after the Pandemic and the Cheating Scandal…

Now that it has been a few weeks since baseball ended its strange, shortened season, it is time to look forward to the upcoming season next Spring. There’s probably reasonable doubt the regular season as we knew it until this year is probably still a couple of seasons away. I am not really expecting a full unaltered schedule in Spring Training and the regular season. Granted, we probably won’t have any specific details until early next year, but I truly hope we have more than 60 games. My general expectation at this point is at least 154 games but that’s assuming we can get a handle on the pandemic sooner than later. Although it is possible, I am not sure we’ll make it to a full 162 games with adjustments that will need to be made. Maybe I am totally wrong and next season returns business as usual. Not likely in my opinion but certainly possible.  Realistically, I see somewhere between 120 to 154 games, plus or minus. Or to better hedge my bet, somewhere between 1 and 162 games.

I figured that A.J. Hinch and Alex Cora would find jobs one day but admittedly I did not think it would happen so quickly. From the moment Alex Cora was fired as the manager of the Boston Red Sox, I felt strongly he’d be back. I never once thought Ron Roenicke was anything more than a one year “fill-in” even if the interim tag was pulled off his title early this past season. I’ve seen Red Sox fans upset that the team rehired a cheater. True. But with all honesty, from the moment the Detroit Tigers hired A.J. Hinch, it was only a matter of time until Cora got his next gig. While I don’t like Alex Cora, I do think he is a good manager and I say that with sincerity despite his active role in the Astros cheating scandal.  

As for Hinch, I guess you can probably say that his crime was knowing about the cheating tactics and doing nothing about it, versus Cora’s active participation. Is that better? Not sure as both men broke the rules and disgraced the sport. Yet, here we are, and both men hold jobs in Major League Baseball again after serving their respective one-year suspensions. Apparently other men adversely impacted by the Astros scandal have short memories. Hinch just hired former Los Angeles Dodgers coach George Lombard to be his bench coach with the Tigers. Lombard was coaching for the Dodgers in their World Series loss to the Astros in 2017.

There was a time I didn’t think former Astros general manager Jeffrey Luhnow would ever get a job in MLB again but now that Hinch and Cora were able to return so quickly, I think it is only a matter of time until some desperate MLB owner comes knocking on Luhnow’s door to help with a rebuild.

My hope is both Hinch and Cora have genuine regret for their prior indiscretions and cowardice, and they have recommitted themselves to preserving the integrity of the sport. Any future violations should result in immediate lifetime bans. They should literally be walking into the land of zero tolerance, not even a whisper of crossing the ethical line. If they prove they are worthy of redemption, they should get it. We are the land of second chances. I hope they do not abuse the privilege handed to them as members of Major League Baseball.

This is a big week for MLB. Rookies of the Year will be announced tomorrow (Monday, November 9^th). Managers of the Year will be November 10^th (as much as I dislike the Rays, I’d say Kevin Cash has to be the easy AL winner). Wednesday, November 11^th will be the AL and NL Cy Young Award winners, while Thursday, the 12^th will be the MVP’s for each league. November 11^th also represents the deadline for players, who received a qualifying offer, to accept or reject the offer. DJ LeMahieu is expected to reject the offer to dip his toe into free agency.

I really hope the Yankees re-sign LeMahieu. Even with the talk the Cleveland Indians have opened the bidding for Francisco Lindor, I’d prefer LeMahieu’s return. Lindor would be great, no doubt, but he will cost much in talent and dollars. LeMahieu is not as costly and I am not a proponent of moving him to first base. I do firmly believe Gleyber Torres will get better at shortstop. I am confident he is putting in the work as I type this post, and he’ll be better prepared for the starting shortstop role in 2021 than he was this past season. Maybe he is not the elite player Lindor is but I am perfectly fine with Torres and LeMahieu at shortstop and second base, respectively. If anything, I want dollars and talent to help improve the pitching staff behind Gerrit Cole and eventual return of Luis Severino. So, as much as I like Lindor, I do not feel he makes sense for the Yankees this point in time. 

Honestly, I think if the Yankees go after Lindor, it means LeMahieu won’t be back.

The Yankees should take a flyer on Corey Kluber if the price is right. There’s huge risk, no doubt, but great upside potential if he is healthy. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. I know he is not the pitcher he once was, but even the great Pedro Martinez subscribed to the Toby Keith song with the lyrics, “I ain’t as good as I once was, but I’m as good once, as I ever was”. That “once” could easily be a big October moment.

I am not really expecting any major trade acquisitions or free agency signings this month. It could happen. James Paxton was a November trade a couple of years ago but I think this off-season will be slower to get started. It might never pick up with any acceleration as teams count their pennies after 2020’s lost revenues.  I think even this year’s Winter Meetings next month will be more somber than usual.

I guess I don’t follow the relationships of Yankees farm teams very closely. I was shocked to hear yesterday the Yankees had abandoned the Trenton Thunder as their Double A affiliate and have moved on to the Somerset Patriots in Bridgewater Township, New Jersey.

The Thunder will be offered the Patriots’ spot in the independent Atlantic League while the Patriots will move to the Eastern League replacing the Thunder. The move caused bitter reaction from Thunder ownership so there were obvious tensions between them and the Yankees throughout this process. Thunder owner Joseph Plumeri released a statement which included “While this community built the Yankees organization up and set minor league baseball attendance records, it seems the Yankees were only focused on trying to cut culturally diverse Trenton down in favor of a wealthy, higher socioeconomic area in Somerset”. Trenton had been the Yankees’ AA team since 2003. For some reason, I thought of the Boston Red Sox when I first heard the name “Somerset Patriots”. It must just be the team’s New England sounding nickname since they have no affiliation with Boston and of course Somerset is in New Jersey, not New England. The Patriots play their games at TD Bank Ballpark in Bridgewater.

The Yankees also gave the axe to Charleston, South Carolina, ending their relationship with the Class A River Dogs. They will be replaced by Hudson Valley Renegades. The Renegades play their games at Dutchess Stadium in Wappinger Falls, New York. The Renegades also replace the Tampa Tarpons as the Yankees High-A affiliate. The Tarpons are still in the family but move down to Low-A.  The moves certainly put the three most critical Yankees farm teams in close proximity to the greater NYC area. Maybe that’s the grand design. The Renegades were most recently the Class A Short Season affiliate for the Tampa Bay Rays.

Welcome to the new cities joining the Yankees family! While we will miss Trenton and Charleston, it will be fun to see players create new memories in Bridgewater, New Jersey and Wappinger Falls, New York as we move forward.

Congratulations to DJ LeMahieu for winning a 2020 AL Silver Slugger Award after a season with a .364 batting average (.364/.421/.590, 1.011 OPS). Yet another reason we need to keep this guy as if we really needed a reminder.

Thank you to Erik Kratz. After his long career, spent mostly in the minor leagues, the mini-Yankees celebrity this past season has announced he won’t be playing in the 2021 season. The 40-year-old Kratz almost certainly has a very bright coaching career ahead for him if he decides to stay in the game. I can easily see him as a MLB manager one day.

I am relieved that J.A. Happ is no longer a Yankee. He had some good moments as a Yankee and I appreciate his time, for the most part, in Pinstripes but I was so ready to move on. Of course, the Yankees need to ensure that they find suitable replacements for the loss of Happ and possibly Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton but giving Happ’s spot to Clarke Schmidt or Deivi Garcia is an easy call. Not sure that I want to go into 2021 with both Schmidt and Garcia as starters but at least one should make the cut. I prefer experience for the other open spots.  I expect Jordan Montgomery to be better in 2021 as he further distances himself from Tommy John surgery and the Yankees should get Luis Severino back by next summer. I’d love to see the Yankees bring in Trevor Bauer if they choose not to bring back Tanaka and/or Paxton.  I think some question if his personality would fit with team chemistry but there should be no question he carries major talent in his right arm. I think he’s one of those guys you hate when he’s not on your team but you love when he is. 

This has been a weird year and I hope everyone has managed to stay healthy. One of my former employees, only in his 40’s with young children at home, lost a month-long battle with the coronavirus this past week. It’s a reminder it can happen to anyone so please be safe.

As always, Go Yankees!

My Plan for the 2020 Offseason -TheBleacherCreatures

 What I would do if I was the Yankees GM

The Yankees pitching was the biggest thing holding them back in 2020. During the regular season and postseason, when the Yankees starting pitcher has a quality start, meaning giving up 3 or less runs over 6 innings the Yankees have a great chance to win, I would even take 5 innings. But the Yankees starting pitchers rarely give them that, except for Cole. During the postseason, Yankees pitchers not named Gerrit Cole, Zack Britton or Jordan Montgomery had an ERA around 9, which is ridiculous. Somehow the Yankees still brought the best team in the American League to a sudden death, game 5 in the ALDS. I know Brian Cashman and Boone are going to say they were shit out of luck in 2020, their best pitcher before Cole was around had Tommy John Surgery, another solid pitcher who I think profiles very well for a middle relief pitcher decided to slap his wife and everyone’s favorite high leverage reliever needed the surgery that shares the first name with him. If the Yankees had these three guys this year, they would’ve been in much better shape and I think they would’ve beat Tampa Bay. But guess what? They didn’t have them so you can’t use that as an excuse. The Rays are currently a much more well rounded team than the Yankees, they have starting pitching and a super pen. Two things the Yankees can easily obtain. So this brings us to the first moves I would make as the Yankees GM this winter. That’s right, I'm bringing everyone’s favorite MLB personality to the Bronx to pitch alongside his old buddy Gerrit Cole. Actually, I maybe wouldn’t want them to pitch right next to each other, we might have upper nineties fastballs heading towards each other because of their supposedly long term beef. But you want to know what, they are both professionals, who want to win, and are absolute competitors, they just go about it different ways and that is why they don’t get along. Gerrit Cole is your old country hardball, Nolan Ryan esque pitcher who is going to go at you with 100mph fastballs and nasty sliders, unfortunately Trevor Bauer wasn’t blessed with the ability to throw a baseball quite that fast so he opted to go the new school approach of working on his spin and pitch shape and all that kind of stuff. I’m not going to go into gory details, but if you want me to delve into it sometime, I must definitely will. I think Bauer coming on board would be a great acquisition because Gerrit Cole would want to be even better than he already is, he would want to defend his land and keep his spot as the Yankees’ ace. He doesn’t want Trevor Bauer to Connor McGregor strut out onto the mound for Game 1 and 7 of the World Series when he should. I don’t know if Bauer is going to stick to the one year contract thing but if he does, that less risk on the Yankees side, if he somehow forgets how to pitch or loses his right hand in a drone accident, then he will be gone after this year, we don’t have to worry about owing him 200 mill for the next 10 years (cough, cough ellsbury). 

Onto another change for the rotation. The Yankees need work horses, and do you know who is a work horse and would complement Bauer, Cole and Severino well? Our old friend Lance Lynn. We only had him for half a season during the 2018 season and he may not have done very well with the Yankees. But since then, he has become an absolute unit for the Texas Rangers. He has added velocity and sported a 136 and 141 ERA+ the last two years respectively. That’s pretty good. He is a free agent after the 2021 season and he wouldn’t cost too much to trade for. The Yankees are Rangers match up well because the Yankees have a lot of surplus major league hitters and middle tier minor league arms. As well as the Rangers suck. So using basetradevalues.com I have the Yankees trading Andujar (finally!), Johnny Lasagna, Luis Medina, and Everson Pereira for Lance Lynn. I know a lot of you Yankees fans would get upset because you think Andujar still has value because he should’ve won the AL ROY in 2018, but this guy has no spot on the Yankees, he can’t field and the Yankees have no spot to put him. He can go suck at defense for the Rangers. I like Loaisaga but he just doesn’t know how to pitch and he is not going to learn from rocket scientist Matt Blake. Medina and Peirera add value to the trade and I don’t really see them making much of an impact for the Yankees anytime soon. Here’s a screenshot of the trade. 

The Bullpen

Now we move to another problem for the Yankees which was always supposed to be a strong suit. I honestly, with all of my heart do not understand how the Yankees can throw guys like Avilan, Holder, Abreu, etc in high leverage opportunities. It is so easy in my opinion to build a super bullpen. The Rays just found 8 guys who throw kind of funny but throw really hard and have a wipe out offspeed pitch. The Rays scouting department literally did this for like $20. The Yankees have always found diamonds in the rough for offense, but can never seem to develop pitching. Guys leave the Bronx and become players we want to trade for. The Yankees have 3 relievers that make a combined 40 million in their bullpen. I don’t know what to do with Ottavino, I think Boone has to trust him and not baby him so much, he still has nasty stuff. Chapman is still a really good reliever; he just gives up home runs that lead to the Yankees demise. I think the Yankees relievers should have more fluid rolls but I trust Britton as a closer more than Chapman. So my plan for the Yankees is to stop pitching trash relievers. For the purposes of this article I’m saying that Adam Ottavino will not be a Yankees in 2021.  Anyways, I want the Yankees to sign Liam Hendricks, in this market, I’ll assume it would only cost them around 12-16 mill AAV. Also, I would sign either GIles or Colome, Hand or Watson and I would bring back one out of Robertson, Betances or Miller. This is assuming that the rosters are still 28 men next year, and that the Yankees have 5 starters, 9 people in their lineup, 4 bench players and 10 relievers. To go alone with this super pen, I have the Yankees finally making the big splash of trading for Josh Hader. To get Hader the Yankees will have to send a pretty convincing package to the Brewers. I know just the man who would make Brewers fans happy. His name is Clint Frazier (collective moan from Yankees fans). Guys you got to give up value to get value. Hader has been one of the top relievers over the past few years and he is cheap right now. I have the Yankees sending Frazier along with Ottavino, who maybe will be able to pitch well in the NL once again and the Brewers can pay for his 9mill as well as Yankees prospect Nick Nelson. I like Nick Nelson but the Brewers need pitching to replace Hader. Here is the hypothetical trade. 

Going back to the point of signing Robertson or Betances or trading for Miller. Their best days may be behind them and injuries have prevented them from being as good recently. Robertson or Betances could probably be signed for around 5 to 7 mill, and Miller would not cost very much to trade for given he’s owed 12 million in 2021. My hope is that any one of those guys could reclaim their glory from their days in pinstripes.

Offense

Here is where we get a little crazy. The Yankees offense was one of the best in the league in 2020. Don’t give me the, they choked in the postseason and they need to have more contact guys spiel. I suggest the Yankees get a couple of guys to help with that. The Yankees offense was not their demise, it was completely shut down by the Rays outstanding pitching in game 5 of the ALDS but they scored 36 runs in the first 4 games of the playoffs against very formidable pitchers. The Yankees offense could use a little more consistency and balance and Gleyber Torres is not a shortstop. To help balance the lineup I suggest the Yankees sign Michael Brantley and Tommy La Stella. Brantley would play LF and be the lefty bat the Yankees have so desperately needed over the past 4+ years and La Stella could play a similar role to what DJ LeMahieu was going to do when he signed with the Yankee. Between giving players days off and injuries, La Stella’s lefty bat could find a way into the lineup 5 days out of the week with his versatility. The next thing I’m going to discuss is Gleyber Torres. He looked so uncomfortable at SS and everytime the ball was hit his way we worried. Not only his glove but his throws from SS looked horrible. When he played 2B he played it so smoothly and never had any problems. I don’t know the roots of this problem but I really think he would do a better job at 2B than SS. If he is playing 2B that means that DJ can not play 2B, so what do we do about that. DJ is an absolutely crucial part of this team and has been the MVP of the Yankees the last two years. I really love Gio Urshela and Luke Voit, but there is a redundancy when it comes to this lineup. Two more right handed bats, that aren’t the best at putting the ball in play when it matters. So I decided that you have to trade Urshela, he currently has more value because of his superb defense and his offense onslot. Other than his grand slam he had an abysmal post season and I think he is more prone to deviate towards the mean than Voit. Voit is the heart and sole of this Yankees team, you can not trade him and he was on track for a billion home runs in a 162 game season. Our guy is also a warrior, battling through his foot injury unlike all the other pansies on the Yankees. So who will play SS? There are two answers I have for you and you will be surprised I don’t mention everyone’s favorite SS that plays for Cleveland. I used to be on the Lindor train, but looking further into his numbers, a lot of his value is defensive, but he’s going to be paid like Harper. He just doesn’t bring enough value to the plate when batting barely above league average for the last couple years, the Yankees can not afford to hand him the 300+ million he will demand. So that leaves us with two options. The best option to play shortstop for the 2021 New York Yankees is Corey Seager. Corey Seager is an outstanding offensive player and about league average defensively, but he makes all the plays he has to. He bats lefty and has the perfect all field approach and contact swing build for the Yankees. He would be the perfect 2 or 3 hitter for the Yankees for the next 10 years. Another option is Colorado Rockies slugger Trevor Story. He burst onto the scene his rookie year setting rookie home run records in his first month left and right. The one thing I don’t like about him is that he is a righty and strikes out a little more than you’d like. But Trevor Story is very close to Corey Seager in value to me and he is much better defensively and he is fast. Both of these guys, along with Correa and Lindor are free agents after the 2021 season so if the Yankees do decide to give Gleyber another year at short, the Yankees can give Seager a blank check after next year. I don’t really see the Dodgers trading Seager after him winning the NLCS MVP and helping them win the World Series. So let’s look at what it would take to acquire Story or seager. I think the talks have to start with Urshela and Deivi Garcia. The Dodgers are always looking for young pitching, as well as relievers. Justin Turner is also a free agent for the Dodgers. He is getting old and I don’t know if they want to stick with him long term. This trade would put Gio at 3B, and move Taylor to SS from 2B allowing the Dodgers top prospect Gavin Lux to play his natural position of 2B. I think this matchup would also allow the Yankees to unload Aaron Hick’s contract. He did a very good job in the postseason, but his defense is getting worse, and the Yankees owe him about 10 mill per year for 5 more years with a club option with a 1 million dollar buyout for the 6th. No longer will the Yankees need to worry about Hicks rolling over ground balls to first base and his contract is off their hands. He can replace Joc Pederson and/or Enrique Hernandez for the Dodgers in the corner outfield.  I believe the trade evaluator grossly underrated Corey Seager. Aaron Hicks literally is the negative value of Urshela’s so I added some prospects to help entice the Dodgers because they will need a lot of persuasion.  

For the purpose of this article, I am going to say the Yankees are going to keep Sanchez and see if he can rebound, he has little trade value right now and what we have seen from him in the past is things little catchers can do or have ever done. If I were able to pick one catcher to put on the Yankees, I would pick Will Smith, I love his contact skills and I only think he will get better as he matures. For the offense, people have been wanting the Yankees to trade for him for years, though I think his offense is a little overrated, I think the versatility and contact skills of Merrifield would be a good addition. Initially when I thought about the Yankees trading for Merrifield I would want him to play a role similar to that of LeMahieu when he first came over and what I would put La Stella in. But I would want Merrifield in the everyday lineup and get the incumbent Hicks out of there. The Yankees would trade Ford, along with a few other minor leaguers who probably won’t ever play on the Yankees. I think Ford has a little more value than the simulator suggests as well as King and Cessa having more value but they were worth little to nothing. I don’t think it would take quite this much to trade for Merrifield, I think it over values him a little too much, but this is a trade I would do to finish the Yankees roster.

In Summary the Yankees 28 Man Roster

Rotation

Cole, Bauer, Severino, Lynn, Montgomery

Bullpen

German, Schmidt, Robertson/Betances/Miller, Hader, Hendricks, Colome/Giles, Watson/Hand, Green, Britton, Chapman

Lineup

C Sanchez, 1B Voit, 2B Torres, SS Seager/Story, 3B LeMahieu, LF Brantley, CF Merrifield, RF Judge, DH Stanton

Bench

C Higgy, OF Tauchman, UTL La Stella, 2B/SS Estrada

   

Additions	Subtractions
Via Free Agency Bauer Betances Hendricks Colome Hand Brantley La Stella Via Trade Lynn Seager Merrifield Hader	Via Free Agency Happ Paxton Tanaka Gardner Via Trade Andujar  Frazier Urshela Hicks Garcia Ottavino Loasiga  Medina Pereria Nelson Florial  Peraza Ford  Gil King Vargas Vople Yajure

Yes I want the Yankees to go all in. Yes, the pitching depth of the Yankees system will be next to nothing. But the Yankees will still have German, and Kahnle returning. They also keep Dominguez, Schmidt, and Wells three of the Yankees most important prospects. This is not what I think the Yankees will do, I may write another article telling what I think they will do, spoiler alert, next to nothing. The Yankees have said that they are going to get under the 210 million dollar luxury tax threshold because money doesn’t win championships and they want to model themselves after the Rays. But there is no way the Yankees can improve this team without going over the threshold. About 20 mill will go to Lemaiheu, the Yankees have to keep him and that leaves them with about 10 mill to spare. Some changes need to be made in the pitching department for sure, hopefully the Yankees will win the World Series in 2021.

P.S. Once MLB Trade Rumors comes out with the projected salaries for this year's free agents, I will create a spreadsheet and figure out what the projected payroll would come out to. But right now, I have no idea what people are going to sing for given teams said reluctance to spend money this offseason.

Thank you for reading. -@The_Bleacherss on Twitter

Waiting Until Next Year...

 

Baseball is no fun without the Yankees…

I miss the Yankees.

 As the AL and NL Championship Series play themselves out, we, the fans of the greatest franchise in the history of baseball, can only sit around and wonder what could have been. Or, like many of the self-appointed GM’s on Twitter, we can deconstruct the Yankees for an imaginary rebuild. 

What rebuild? This team doesn’t need to be rebuilt but they do need to make some changes. I know that many called for the head of Manager Aaron Boone, but even before Managing General Partner Hal Steinbrenner proclaimed that Boone would be back next year, it was apparent Boone has a long leash. I was disappointed with some of the manager’s moves in the playoffs, but I am convinced he can and will get better. I am not ready to close the door on Boone’s career with the Yankees. Unlike some Yankee fans, I am certainly not pining for the return of Joe Girardi. Look, I liked Girardi when he was the Yankees manager and I had been hopeful the team would have re-signed him when his contract expired after the 2017 season. But they didn’t and I trust the decision-making process in the Yankees’ hierarchy, and I’ve moved on. I wish Girardi well, and I hope his stay in Philly cements his legacy as good Major League manager, but you won’t find me looking for a reunion. My desire for manager reunions lived…and died…with Billy Martin.  

Maybe you can say GM Brian Cashman has been on his job too long. Perhaps. If I was Hal Steinbrenner, I’d probably re-structure the front office and basically kick Cashman upstairs. In other words, make him the team President and send Randy Levine on his way. Then, appoint a new GM to work with the analytics team and serve as the face of the organization. I don’t know if I have a specific candidate in mind. It could be an insider like Tim Naehring, a former insider like Billy Eppler, or maybe a fresh, new voice from the outside. I am a little disappointed that Kim Ng has never gotten an opportunity to be the first female GM. The last part of that sentence, in my mind, is irrelevant. Kim deserves an opportunity because she knows baseball and will be an elite general manager if she is ever given the chance. Maybe the Phillies hire her to replace the fired Matt Klentak, but I’d love to see her come back to the Yankees. It won’t happen as Hal Steinbrenner seems devoted to Cashman in his current role. “Obviously, I’ve known Brian forever, and the way he goes about doing things in a very objective way,” Steinbrenner said recently. He went on to say, “He listens to everybody—pro scouting and analytics and anybody else that wants to get into his hear. I know the people that work under him respect him, and Boone respects him, and it’s been good. We’re just going to have to keep plugging away.” It is Hal’s money.  As long as Hal is happy, it doesn’t really matter what you or I think.

The first order of business must be re-signing DJ LeMahieu. I love DJ as a Yankee, and I was a big fan of his when he played for the Colorado Rockies (I lived in Denver at the time). But for as much as I’ve called for the Yankees to re-sign him (almost with each post), the talk of a five-year contract does put me off a little.  I am completely fine with a three-year deal but five years seems to be pushing it a little too far. LeMahieu will be 33 next July. Maybe he ages well, but the thought of a 38-year-old second baseman bothers me. If the Yankees have proven anything in recent years, they’ve generally avoided extended-length contracts (unless your name is Gerrit Cole, of course). I think a three-year deal is fair for both player and team. You can build the necessary dollars into the contract to provide long-term financial security for the player, while keeping the team’s options open should the player regress with age, or if the Yankees were to go five years, I’d want to see some options in those latter years so the Yankees would have an ejection button without the contract becoming an albatross.  So, now that some dollars are being tossed around as ideas, I’ll modify my position to say I want the Yankees to re-sign LeMahieu as long as it makes financial sense to do so. I’d be devastated if he leaves, but I do believe the team needs to protect its flexibility to make future roster enhancements without the dead weight of bad contracts. 

Exercising the team option to bring back Zack Britton is a no-brainer and a must move. I’d be in favor of moving Britton into a co-closer’s role with Aroldis Chapman. Chappy seems to be getting more vulnerable with each passing year. Unfortunately, not everyone…well, in fact, no one…is Mariano Rivera.  But to make Britton the co-closer, the Yankees must make bullpen improvements. I honestly do not know what to expect with Adam Ottavino. I’ve always thought he was a great player, even when he had his struggles in Colorado, but it was difficult to have any trust in him after last year. Can he rediscover himself like he once did in Colorado? I wouldn’t bet against him, but like LeMahieu, he is older now. It gets harder.  Given Tommy Kahnle will miss the 2021 year, the Yankees have to find an elite replacement.  This isn’t a job for the young arms in the farm system. Team Cashman needs to find their next gem with a reliever that is ready to explode. The next Josh Hader is preferable. I don’t know who that is, but I am sure the Yankees have a board of non-Yankee prospects they rank for target acquisition purposes. The Tampa Bay Rays have had great success with their seemingly shot-in-the-dark acquisitions which have turned out to be brilliant discoveries. 

I don’t like Mark Teixeira’s idea of trading Luke Voit to move LeMahieu to first, Gleyber Torres back to second, and re-sign Didi Gregorius to play shortstop. I wouldn’t be opposed to Didi coming back but I don’t want LeMahieu pushed to first to make it happen. Conversely, I’d hate to see LeMahieu leave in order to bring Didi back. I think all of us were disappointed with Gleyber’s results at shortstop this year but like Aaron Boone, he will get better. Gleyber has proven to be a player who puts in the time, the commitment, the work to get better. He’s not just living the high life as a wealthy young man…he is dedicated to his craft and I think he will be successful. I get Teixeira’s belief that Luke Voit’s value has never been higher, but I am hopeful the next Yankees championship includes Voit.

Photo Credit: Rich von Biberstein, Icon Sportswire

With the disappointment of Masahiro Tanaka’s October starting performances starting to fade, I think the Yankees bring him back. They almost have to given the current state of the rotation. I’d love to see the Yankees sign a guy like Trevor Bauer despite the baggage he brings, but I don’t think they’ll spend that type of money in free agency this year. They’ll spend the money on guys in-house, and they’ll use potential trades over making any big splashes in free agency. Luis Severino offers hope but of course we won’t see him until next summer and then there’s always the caveat that it takes some guys a year to get back to their previous level. If he could provide at least the stability of a #3 starter when he returns, I’d be very happy.  It will most likely be 2022 before we can talk about him being second only to Gerrit Cole. By then, I am hopeful Clarke Schmidt and/or Deivi Garcia have fully blossomed into Major League starters.  Through all this, Tanaka offers some glue (stability) so I am convinced he’ll be back. 

I wish I had a crystal ball to see the state of Yankees’ catching in 2021. I am not sure Gary Sanchez is long for life in Pinstripes. I had hoped the new catching coordinator, Tanner Swanson, could work some magic with Sanchez, but the results were less than ideal to say the least. Losing the trust of his manager and the team’s best starting pitcher does not bode well for Gary unless he has a miraculous off-season and comes into Spring Training on a mission to awaken the Kraken. I am starting to give up hope we will ever see it happen. I am not ready to hand the keys to Kyle Higashioka yet, so I really hope this is an area the Yankees figure out this winter. I want Gary to succeed and I want him to do it as a Yankee. But if Cashman has made the determination it is not a salvageable situation, then I’ll trust him to make the decisions to make catching a strength once again. This will certainly be something I’ll be watching closer as we move into the final months of the year. 

J.A. Happ, please don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

I don’t have a grand map for how the Yankees can improve. I trust Cashman and his team to make those decisions. It will be interesting once the World Series is over and off-season planning begins to take shape. Early November moves can often be a precursor to the team’s off-season blueprint. I think at that point, we can start to make better projections for potential moves. I think the Yankees WILL be better next year. I certainly don’t think they will tear it down a year after signing Cole to the monster contract. They need to maximize the potential of the team during the best years of Cole’s contract. There is talent on the roster and there must be a focus to address the team’s weaknesses. With the right moves, the Yankees, on paper, will be among the greatest teams in MLB. Throw in the right chemistry, and 2021 could be a very special year for Yankee fans…the year we’ve been waiting for.

As always, Go Yankees!

Trading Clint Frazier

Readers have had a lot to say about my offseason plan post, which was published yesterday. While most of the criticism I've received doesn't faze me, or make me second-guess myself, there is one part that I've been willing to admit could be better.

No, it's not trading Clint Frazier, although many don't like that idea. Heck, I admitted in that same article that I don't like dealing the kid away. As well as Clint did with the bat this season, his improvement on defense and maturity is what made me a fan of his. But when it comes to acquiring someone that could go a long way in balancing the Yankees' lineup (signing lefty-hitting, high batting average, Michael Brantley), Red Thunder (sorry, "The Wildling" is not going to happen) is the guy to take the hit.

Think about it... Clint Frazier is by far the best, realistic, trade bait in order to get a strong second starter to pair with Gerrit Cole. I had to put "realistic" in bold/italics because that word is key. Sure, Gio Urshela, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Aaron Judge, Deivi Garcia, Clarke Schmidt, and Jasson Dominguez, could all fetch that type of starter. But trading away any of those names makes little to no sense. I mean, I suppose a team could blow away the Yankees with an offer they can't refuse, but how likely is that to happen?

Urshela, Torres, Voit, and Judge are key pieces to the current team, and are all very cheap in comparison to what the team gets out of them. Garcia and Schmidt could be key pieces of the starting rotation as early as next season, and like the hitters I just mentioned, will be cheap for many years. And Dominguez... well, come on. The guy has been called the next Mike Trout!

By the way, the Yankees are not going to sign Trevor Bauer. Even if Trevor does only take a one year deal, he's looking at least $30 million, putting him financially out of reach for a team that clearly wants to lower payroll.

So I won't give in when saying the team should trade Frazier. Even if the team can't sign Brantley, I'd take a strong #2 starter and Brett Gardner in LF over Clint Frazier and a questionable #2 starter heading into a postseason series. However, I'm willing to back off on the Yankees trading Clint for Lance Lynn.

That isn't to say I don't think Lynn can fill that role in the rotation. Since he debuted for St. Louis in 2011, the guy has an ERA+ of 116. He strikes out nearly nine batters every nine innings, has a career ERA of 3.57, has experience playing for the Yankees, and is cheap (no way in Hell would the Yankees, or anyone else, have a chance to sign a guy as good as Lance for 1 year and $10 million... what's left on his contract). 

The one thing I meant to include in that article, which out of all the mistakes I could have made in there I regret the most, is that Texas would have to kick in a prospect in their top 20 or 30. Even if Lynn has a 2021 season like he had in 2019 and 2020, meaning the Yankees may want to re-sign him to get more "bang for their buck", there's no guarantee. So at least getting a prospect that could help in the future would be necessary.

But if you're still not sold on Lance Lynn... fine. I don't agree, but I'm not going to wave off that opinion. There's no problem in thinking a guy with Clint's potential, and being under team control for four more years, can fetch more than a 34 year-old starter (no matter how good) and a team's top 30 prospect. 

I'm not going to put as much time and energy into looking for alternatives, but a quick glance at Fangraph's pitching leaders (according to WAR) from 2018 through 2020 gave me a handful of other options.

1. German Marquez -Colorado Rockies

Marquez, who will turn just 25 in February, is under contract for three more years at a little over $8 million per season. He is coming off a very strong 2020, which saw him throw to an ERA+ of 140, bringing his career mark in that stat to 118. It does concern me seeing that his strikeout rate has gone down in each of the past three years (10.6 to 9.1 to 8.0 K/9), but he does induce plenty of ground balls, and unlike many saw his home run rate go down significantly (1.3 HR/9 between 2017 and 2019, to 0.7 in 2020). 

2. Marco Gonzalez - Seattle Mariners

Marco is a lefty that will turn 29 in February. He didn't blow anyone away in his first two full seasons in MLB (2018 and 2019), as he was only slightly above average (106 ERA+), but his 2020 was very nice. That ERA+ jumped to 136, to go along with eight strikeouts per nine innings, and a very nice walk rate of just 0.9 per nine innings. Gonzales is also signed to a team-friendly deal for four more seasons (team option for a fifth), that'll see him make only $7.5 million a year. While it won't be easy for Seattle to overcome Oakland and Houston the AL West, they may want to hold onto their best starter from 2020.

3. Joe Musgrove - Pittsburgh Pirates

Unlike the two previous guys, Joe's only real attraction comes from his 2020 season. Before this past season, he was a slightly below average pitcher (ERA+ of 94). I wouldn't put too much stock into a very good strikeout rate of 12.5 batters per nine innings, but he has shown strikeout ability in his pro career. 

Oh... I can't continue with that. I would not be happy if the Yankees traded Frazier for Musgrove.  Honestly, I probably wouldn't be very excited about either Gonzalez or Marquez, either. Look at it this way... if any of those three aforementioned pitchers was named the Game 2 starter of a postseason series, would you feel all warm and fuzzy inside? No way. And while not everyone would feel that same way should Lance Lynn be that guy, assuming he doesn't stay quite as dominant as we've seen him in Texas the past two years, I think more of us would be cool with it.

And that's the point. Lynn is more of a sure-thing than any other realistic (there's that word again) option. I mean, if the Mets would be willing to trade Noah Syndergaard to the Yankees, then Frazier (plus a little more) would certainly be enough. But I can't imagine the two New York teams getting together on that big a trade. Who knows? Perhaps Brian Cashman could pull something off that's totally off my radar (wouldn't be the first, second, third... you get the idea... time).

If any of you have another idea, I'd love to hear it. Maybe your idea would make me look back at my Lance Lynn proposal and scoff at my idiocy. But until then, Lance Lynn is part of my offseason plan.

How Will 2021 Look?

"You're losing faith from a lot of Yankees fans, Mr. Cashman. How are you going to earn it back?"

I'm not one for long introductions. That's not to say I can't be long-winded, but since I hardly ever read the intros to articles, why should I expect you to? Plus, if you just want to see a summary of what I'd like to see happen this offseason you can scroll to the bottom. But if you do that, don't come at me on Twitter with things I already explained before that summary.

So let's get started...

It's crazy to think that I'm going to talk about the Yankees acquiring starting pitching this offseason, and it doesn't involve bringing back anybody that was with them this past season.

J.A. Happ is the easiest to let go. Happ's ERA+ as a Yankee was 106, which... while unspectacular... isn't bad. This season he actually had the second best ERA+ on the team (123). However, if you look at his game log he actually only started one game against a playoff team, and that was the Blue Jays. And his pitching performance in Game 2 leaves a lot to be desired. If the Yankees needed a #4 or #5 starter then Happ might be the guy. But that's not the case at all. And I didn't even mention his comments about his role with the team this year. He's not made for the Yankees.

At the beginning of the season I wanted the Yankees to bring back James Paxton over Masahiro Tanaka, but after he went down with yet another injury I changed my mind. James has not thrown more than 160.1 innings in one season, and counting on him for more than that would be naive. Not that he can't do it, but I would not feel comfortable at all if the Yankees were to do so. It's really too bad, since Paxton is a good to great pitcher when healthy. If he would accept a one year deal, then perhaps I'd be interested, but his injury history would still give me pause.

The toughest to let go is Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka has been solid the past few years, but after watching him in the postseason he's lost his luster. I just wouldn't be able to trust him to start another postseason game, and I can't bring myself to be okay with paying him what he deserves unless we could count on him in October. If he'd sign a one year contract worth around $12 million I'd be all for it. But I see him getting around $15 million a year for three years, and I just don't think it would be a good decision for the Bombers.

Moving on to happier things that I'd like to see this offseason, I'm 99.9% sure the Yankees will bring back DJ LeMahieu. In a vacuum I can understand fans thinking DJ is worth a huge contract for a very high average annual value. But we have to keep in mind that it's 2020, and for years now salaries have been lower than normal. Plus, LeMahieu is 31 years old, so we shouldn't expect him to be offered a long-term deal, either. Therefore, while I could see him signing for as little as three years, I will conservatively say he gets a deal worth five years. And he could be looking at an AAV as low as $16 million, but I'll say $18 million to be safe. That comes out to five years and $90 million.

Bringing back LeMahieu is something the Yankees need for their offense, however, the lineup is still too unbalanced. Outside of a couple of good to great batting average guys (DJ and Urshela), there are too many low average/high power hitters. Furthermore, while a lot of their righty batters don't suffer from large splits when it comes to what hand the opposing pitcher uses, the Yankees could use another left-handed batter (Hicks is the only guy they have that can bat left-handed, but he is actually a switch-hitter). Looking at the free agent market one name stands out... Michael Brantley.

Since 2018, which covers 1455 plate appearances, Brantley's batting average was .309, while his on-base percentage was .368. Having someone like that in the Yankees lineup would go a long way in balancing things out. Not to mention that Michael is a lefty, which will help that balance even more with the Yankees righty-heavy (possibly righty-ONLY) lineup.

The problem is position. Brantley has played almost exclusively in left field since 2016. And as of right now I have Clint Frazier pencilled into left in 2021. This leads to a tough decision... Go with Clint Frazier, who I think could do a lot of good things next season, or bring in Brantley who would be a better fit for the lineup? It wasn't an easy decision to make, but I have to side with signing Brantley.

As for his contract, Micheal is 33 years old, so we're not looking at a lot of years. He will also be coming off a two-year deal worth $32 million, which he earned after coming back strong in 2018 following shoulder surgery (two, actually, for the same shoulder injury) that shortened both his 2016 and 2017 seasons. Therefore, another two year deal may work. But I'll play it conservative and guess a three-year contact worth $51 million would work.

That would mean it's time to part-ways with Frazier. I really like the kid as he's matured so much this season, but there's no place for him now except for the bench. And he's simply too valuable to leave on the bench. So it's finally time to do what people have been expecting for years... trade him. 

I'm not very good at figuring out good trade scenarios, but I gave it another shot. I looked at the top pitchers since 2019 (going solely by 2020 would be silly, as this season was too crazy to lean on), and one guy that stuck out was Lance Lynn.

Lynn is in his final season with the Rangers, and since they finished dead last in the AL West, I don't think they'd mind parting with their top starter from 2020. Lance threw to an ERA+ of 141 in 2019, and followed up that effort with another strong 2020 (ERA+ of 136). Lynn actually had the 5th highest fWAR since 2019 as well. And in these last two seasons Lance struck out 10.3 batters per nine innings, which is 16th in MLB during that time. 

Lynn is in the final year of a 3 year $30 million deal, so his salary for next season is far from steep, which will please a front office that seems to value money more than winning.

Another big problem with this team in 2020 was the bullpen. Now that Adam Ottavino is no longer a member of the Circle of Trust, along with the loss of another really good reliever in Tommy Kahnle, I can't see them going into 2021 without getting another elite reliever. Maybe Adam was victim to another strange season that lacked a true Spring Training. Or maybe if Ottavino drops the changeup he added this year, and goes back to the cutter more, he can get back on track. Either way, though, an addition is needed here.

So what do the Yankees do about it? They sign Trevor May for 3 years and $21 million.

Yankees relievers were in the bottom 10 in league when it comes to fWAR, which for them is unheard of. This team has had a strong bullpen for a very long time now, and seeing how much a struggling bullpen hurt them this year it's easy to understand why. I'm sure there are Yankees fans out there that would rather they went after Liam Hendricks or Brandon Workman, but the fact is both of those guys a closers, and closing equals more money. However, May is not a closer, so I could see him coming to the Yankees to be a middle reliever... unlike Hendricks and Workman.

Trevor has very good strikeout ability (14.7 K/9 in 2020), and a good walk rate (2.7 BB/9 in 2020). He was a hit homer prone this season, but seeing that his home run rate was much better in 2019, I believe he can improve that in 2021.

As for my contract estimate, May wasn't quite as good before free agency as Adam Ottavino was. Ottavino got a 3 year deal worth $27 million, so I can see this being about right, if not slightly less money per year.

Before I get into the team payroll, which... by the way... I only bring up so that we can see that my proposed roster is within the realm of possibility, I wanted to go over a couple of things. One, I calculated the payroll based on the Luxury Tax, not actual dollars being spent. Secondly, I understand that there was talk of the Yankees going under the tax threshold again in order to reset their tax rate, but I can't see it happening. Getting down to $210 million (next year's tax threshold) would probably mean weakening an already iffy starting rotation, not improving a bullpen that needs to be improved, and going into next season with the same unbalanced offense. And we have to remember that the current Collective Bargaining Agreement will be replaced at the end of next season (the current CBA runs through December 1, 2021). And I'm almost positive the current Luxury Tax will either be amended to allow for higher team payrolls (and more money for players) or could be replaced with a whole new plan. So taking a chance on weakening your team to abide by something that may be gone a year from now would be silly.

It's hard to estimate how the Yankees will do in arbitration, especially since MLB Trade Rumors have yet to do their's. The Yankees actually have 12 of them (Judge, Urshela, Torres, Voit, Sanchez, Andujar, Montgomery, German, Green, Cessa, Holder, Heller). So in my rough estimate the team's payroll, which includes money Miami is kicking in for Stanton since he opted in, $5 million for Jacoby Ellsbury, non-active roster members (the Luxury Tax is based on the 40-man roster), Brett Gardner's buyout of $2.5 million, and player benefits (also a part of the Luxury Tax), the team payroll will be around $234.5 million. 

For comparison, last year's total was a little over $265 million. If you figure in the Luxury Tax payments (they will pay 30% this season, but 50% next year for going over for the third straight year) the Yankees total for 2020 comes to $282.1 million while it would be $246.75 million in 2021 (barring mid-season additions). That means the Yankees would actually pay about $35.5 million less in 2021. Perhaps not as much as they'd like, but a pretty damn good savings if you ask me.

Now, for a summary of the predictions, along with the final active roster, here you go...

1. Let James Paxton, J.A. Happ, and Masahiro Tanaka go in free agency
2. Re-sign D.J. LeMaheiu for 5 years and $90 million   
3. Sign Michael Brantley for 3 years and $51 million
4. Trade Clint Frazier for Lance Lynn
5. Sign Trevor May for 3 years and $21 million

Active Roster
* - left-handed hitter/pitcher
# - switch hitter

Starting Lineup

1. D.J. LeMaheiu - 2B
2. Aaron Judge -  RF
3. Aaron Hicks# - CF  
4. Giancarlo Stanton - DH
5. Luke Voit - 1B
6. Michael Brantley* - LF
7. Gio Urshela - 3B
8. Gary Sanchez - C
9. Gleyber Torres - SS

Bench

2B/SS/3B Tyler Wade*
OF Mike Tauchman*
C Kyle Higashioka
LF/3B Miguel Andujar

Starting Rotation
1. Gerrit Cole 
2. Lance Lynn
3. Jordan Montgomery*
4. Deivi Garcia
5. Domingo German

Bullpen
Aroldis Chapman*
Zack Britton*
Chad Green
Trevor May
Adam Ottavino
Jonathan Holder 
Luis Cessa
Jonathan Loaisiga

Notes
-Clarke Schmidt will go to AAA, so that he starts and is stretched out. He would be the first man called upon should the Yankees need a starter.
-Luis Severino will most likely return around June (14 months after Tommy John surgery).
-I would like to see the Yankees take a shot on Robbie Ray, who would likely come cheap. He still strikes out a lot of batters, and I think he's better than what we saw in 2020. I didn't include this move because I think the team would rather save the money.
-I like the bullpen, but I wouldn't mind seeing them make another move to make it even better. Perhaps trade Sanchez for someone like Freddy Peralta, then sign James McCann. But Sanchez did have a decent 2019 thanks to 34 home runs, so I don't think he'll necessarily be a negative for us.
-I really like Clint Frazier and think he has a bright future ahead of him. But I think trading him is their best bet to get a strong #2 to go along with Cole.