Game 5 of the 2001 World Series between the New York Yankees and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Thursday, January 21, 2016
The Boring Winter Ahead: Watch the 2001 World Series Game Five HERE
Game 5 of the 2001 World Series between the New York Yankees and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Rob Manfred Announces Changes to Non-Waiver Trade Deadline
The #MLB trading deadline has been moved to Aug. 1 instead of July 31, since July 31 is a Sunday
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) January 21, 2016
Predicting the New York Yankees Bullpen
The New York Yankees bullpen has the possibility of being
absolutely ridiculous in 2015, but in a good way. Aroldis Chapman, even with a
suspension, will be the Yankees closer for the season while some combination of
Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances will pitch behind him in the 7th
and 8th innings respectively. Behind this three headed monster will
be a collection of arms drawn from an ever growing pool of pitchers that were
either under contract from previous seasons or acquired in trades this
offseason. Either way this is going to be one heck of a prediction post to land
down since there will be so many moving parts but I’m going to go ahead anyway
and take a stab at predicting the Yankees bullpen that breaks spring training
camp this season.
Aroldis Chapman
Andrew Miller
Dellin Betances
Chasen Shreve
James Pazos
Nick Rumbelow
Bryan Mitchell
Ivan Nova
I’m not entirely sold on Kirby Yates although he is
right-handed in what is looking to be a very left-handed heavy middle relief
core for the Yankees. I honestly don’t know much about the acquisitions of
Tyler Olson or what the likes of Anthony Swarzak can bring but I do know that
the Yankees need another right-handed arm in that pen. Olson throws left-handed
and Swarzak, unless he dominates this spring, is not on the 40 man roster
leaving Nick Goody, Nick Rumbelow and Branden Pinder vying for possibly one
spot, maybe two.
I would personally have Jacob Lindgren on my roster but I
feel like, again barring a spectacular spring, the Yankees will want him back
down in Triple-A to start the season to ease back into things after elbow
surgery. For that reason James Pazos will get the shot, the Yankees and manager
Joe Girardi love their LOOGY’s, while Nick Rumbelow wins the final spot up for
grabs. It could be Goody and it could be Pinder, honestly Pinder was used more
often than any of them while Goody was used the most sparingly, but I’m going
with my gut on this one and I’m going with Rumbelow, right or wrong.
Those are my predictions, what are yours? Leave them below
in the comments section!
Fangraphs Predicts the 2016 Season
Earlier today we took a look at the ZIPS predictions from
Dan Szymborski over at Fangraphs and showed what his system thought the Yankees
would do in 2016. We also prefaced that post with the fact that Fangraphs,
unlike Baseball Reference, had individual and unique content on their site and
those ZIPS predictions were one of those posts we alluded to. This is an
official Fangraphs prediction model for the 2016 season that focuses more on
runs, run preventions and wins rather than fancy stats and analytics like the
ZIPS system. How did the Yankees do in this one?
Fangraphs shows no regression and no improvement in the win
column for the New York Yankees in 2016. According to the predictions the
Bombers will repeat their 87-win season that landed them in the postseason in
2015 which will give the Yankees the fourth best record in all of baseball. The
three teams that Fangraphs believes will have more wins than the Yankees are
the Chicago Cubs, the Washington Nationals, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the
Yankees biggest division rivals, the Boston Red Sox (92 wins). Not the Toronto
Blue Jays, not the Baltimore Orioles, not the Pittsburgh Pirates and not the
St. Louis Cardinals.
Fangraphs predicts the Yankees will score 4.5 runs per game
and allow 4.18 runs per game which are both downgraded from their 2015 totals of
4.72 RS/G and 4.31 RA/G. The Yankees had the second most runs scored in all of
baseball in 2015 with Alex Rodriguez hitting 33 home runs and Mark Teixeira
looking more like the 2009 version of himself than the 2010 and beyond version
of himself so a slight regression should have been expected. The team also
added Aroldis Chapman to the bullpen and will presumably have a full season of
Luis Severino which should also explain why the slight downfall in runs allowed
was also prevalent on the Fangraphs predictions.
The Yankees biggest upgrade though will likely come at the
second base position. In 2015 the Yankees used six different second baseman
including Stephen Drew, Robert Refsnyder, Brendan Ryan, Dustin Ackley and
others and they combined to hit .245 with 65 RBI and 63 runs scored but in 2016
the team will likely use one second baseman for the most part, Starlin Castro.
Castro alone hit 0265 with 69 RBI and 52 runs scored in 2015 and that was a
down season for him that included a benching for defensive purposed and a
position switch to second base. While at second base Castro hit .339 for the
Chicago Cubs leading them to the National League Championship Series. In a
snapshot the Yankees offense should get a huge boost at the position, finally.
The Fangraphs predictions are not 100% and truth be told
they are usually a little low in most cases. The Kansas City Royals won 95
games last season and the World Series championship while Fangraphs predicted
the team would have just 79 wins so take these predictions with a grain of
salt. If the Yankees can match or exceed the 87-win total the website predicted
I think many fans of the team would be happy with that, I have to think that I
would personally.
For your reference here is the complete list for the AL East
according to Fangraphs:
2016 AL East
Standings (per FanGraphs projections)
1. Boston Red Sox
(2015 record: 78-84)
2016 projection: 92-70 | 4.75 runs scored per game, 4.11
runs allowed
2. New York Yankees (2015
record: 87-75)
2016 projection: 87-75 | 4.50 runs scored per game, 4.18
runs allowed
3. Toronto Blue Jays
(2015 record: 93-69)
2016 projection: 84-78 | 4.75 runs allowed per game, 4.57
runs allowed
4. Tampa Bay Rays
(2015 record: 80-82)
2016 projection: 82-80 | 4.16 runs scored per game, 4.08
runs allowed
5. Baltimore Orioles (2015
record: 81-81)
2016 projection: 76-86 | 4.37 runs scored per game, 4.65
runs allowed
Grading the Yankees Offseason Thus Far
The New York Yankees headed into the offseason before the
2016 season with seemingly little money to work with and little roster
flexibility to be seen. The Yankees, when you activated all the players on the
60 day disabled list, had 49 players and just 40 spots on their 40 man roster
with just three free agents hitting the market. None of Chris Young, Chris
Capuano or Stephen Drew played huge roles on the team in 2015, although Drew
did play the most as the starting second baseman for much of the season, and
none of them made a significant amount of money either. With that in mind and
another year on the Yankees roster and aging players many fans were not too
optimistic about this offseason, some even predicted a quiet offseason, but it
has been anything but that.
Yankees GM Brian Cashman came out of the gates firing on all
cylinders after the World Series announcing that New York was open for business
and every single one of their cards were out on the table. While the team has
gone more than a calendar year without signing a Major League free agent that
hasn’t stopped the team from having a productive and busy offseason. The
Yankees have added players via trades, they have designated players off the 40
man roster only to bring them back on new minor league deal’s and the team has
stealthily added payroll and younger players that fit not only one mold but
multiple molds.
For the first time in a long time the Yankees stayed away
from big names like David Price and Zack Greinke and instead added names like
Aaron Hicks, Aroldis Chapman(who yes I realize is a big name) and Starlin
Castro. All the while Cashman actually found value in a player like Brendan
Ryan who he used in the deal with the Cubs and John Ryan Murphy who he traded
to the Minnesota Twins. In the Chapman, and again yes I realize why but if any
other GM took advantage many media outlets would be singing a different tune,
Castro and Hicks deals the Yankees gave up relatively little in the grand
scheme of things. Adam Warren was an asset to this team but on many other teams
he is projected to be a 3rd or 4th starter at best and a
dominant middle relief pitcher. Those tend to grow a dime a dozen across the
league.
The Yankees have also added a ton of depth in the Justin
Wilson trade and with all the minor league deals and invitations to spring
training they have pulled off thus far. The team is also in a position to rely
heavily on their farm system once again in 2016 with Greg Bird, Aaron Judge and
Gary Sanchez breathing down the necks of many aging veterans that are coming
close to the end of their contracts. All this while keeping last year’s playoff
team and their core for the most part intact. As long as the Yankees stay healthy
and productive they can absolutely improve on their 87-win total from last
season and they didn’t have to mortgage the now or the future to do it.
I will fall short of giving Brian Cashman an “A” rating
because I think the offense needed something else to take the pressure off of
Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira but there is nothing wrong with a solid “B+”
in my opinion.
Fangraphs Dan Szymborski’s Yankees ZIPS Predictions
I know I tend to reference Baseball Reference a lot on my
articles because it’s my favorite resource for writing my articles but
Fangraphs.com is a close second. What Fangraphs brings you that Baseball
Reference does not, well besides two different sets of WAR’s between them, is
that Fangraphs brings you unique content and Dan Szymborksi’s yearly ZIPS
predictions. ZIPS is basically a glorified computer system that predicts how
every team will do the following year and the ZIPS system has been extremely
reliable over the years, how do the 2016 Yankees stack up as of today according
to ZIPS? Well I went over to Fangraphs and I found out.
I started with the starting pitching, the biggest question
mark for the Yankees going forward, and added up a combined 10 zWAR (the higher
the better). Masahiro Tanaka and Luis Severino will lead the charge for the
Yankees at the top producing 3.0 zWAR each while Michael Pineda and Nathan
Eovaldi aren’t far behind with a 2.0 zWAR each. CC Sabathia produced a 0 zWAR
which brought the overall number down. The 2015 version of the Yankees produced
a 12.9 zWAR and their 10.0 zWAR would rank them 10th overall in the
American League (using 2015 numbers).
The pitching is predicted to take a step back but that’s
fine if the bullpen can pick them up, right? Especially with Aroldis Chapman,
Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances anchoring the back end of the bullpen that is
predicted to produce a 6.0 zWAR. Last season the Yankees bullpen produced a 5.3
zWAR which tied the Houston Astros for the second best total in the Major
Leagues. Only the Baltimore Orioles produced a zWAR at or above 6.0 in 2015.
One thing is for certain though, and I feel like this is
something that Yogi Berra would have said, you can’t win a game if you don’t
score any runs. The starters can exceed their 10.0 zWAR and the bullpen could
put up another 10.0 zWAR but that means nothing if the offense falters and
begins to show its age. The Yankees offense produced a 20.4 zWAR in 2015 behind
the returns of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira but ZIPS predicts that another
year on the roster will hurt the Yankees overall dropping them to a team total
19zWAR in 2016. This does not take into account potential ZIPS predictions for
Greg Bird or Aaron Judge who may or may not get a chance to play in 2016. If
they do play Judge is predicted to produce a 1.5 zWAR while Bird looks good for
a 2.0 zWAR. Carlos Beltran is listed at a 0.0 zWAR right along with CC
Sabathia.
Using ZIPS from around the league it looks like the Yankees
will once again fall somewhere in the 80-90 win area with a shot at one of the
two Wild Card spots in the American League. The season will depend on injuries
and the effectiveness of their aging and high-priced stars, per the usual. Can
Teixeira and Rodriguez hold up over one more season and can Beltran and
Sabathia keep their heads above water as their careers come to a close. Can
Jacoby Ellsbury bounce back and can Brett Gardner play at a major league level
in the second half? These are all questions that ZIPS, or any advanced metric
for that matter, cannot answer. We’ll all just have to stay tuned and find out
for ourselves this season.
The Last Yankees Bench Spot Battle Royal
The New York Yankees have added a ton of depth to the team
and the infield in recent weeks after a few early offseason trades left the
team a little thin at certain positions. After the trades of Jose Pirela to the
San Diego Padres and Brendan Ryan to the Chicago Cubs the Yankees middle
infield was especially a concern but Brian Cashman and company has added a slew
of players on minor league deals and such that are now fighting to make a
difference and win the last spot on the Yankees bench in a free-for-all battle
royal this spring.
Pete Kozma was the first name to be added to the list of
participants in the battle royal and has since been joined by the likes of
Donovan Solano, Lane Adams, Robert Refsnyder and Ronald Torreyes before he was
designated for assignment. So who wins the spot? Before you can answer that you
have to address the Yankees current situation and their needs.
The outfield is completely stacked with Brett Gardner,
Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Aaron Hicks and Dustin Ackley on the roster
and Mason Williams, Slade Heathcott, Ben Gamel and Aaron Judge waiting in the
wings while the catcher position seems solidified as well with some combination
of Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez and Brian McCann. The infield is where the team
may need some help though with obvious backup holes at third base and the
shortstop position. As it stands right now Starlin Castro is the starting
second baseman as well as the team’s backup at both positions leaving the
options limited for Joe Girardi at this point.
Adams is a DH and outfielder so he seems unlikely, although
his bat would look good in the Yankees lineup, while Refsnyder’s inability to
play anywhere but second base may hurt his stock. You’re left essentially with
Solano and Kozma who are defense first type players who carry little weight in
the terms of offense. The one area that sets these two apart is the fact that
Solano can play third base and the shortstop position as well as the outfield,
all needs for the Yankees.
Solano has the win the job this spring, don’t get me wrong,
but right now you would have to think that his name is at least written in
pencil on Joe Girardi’s lineup card heading into spring training camp here in
just about a month’s time.
This Day In New York Yankees History 1/21: Joe D Misses the Hall
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