Meet a Prospect: Juan Then

We have already met this young man’s former teammate with the Seattle Mariners in JP Sears so let’s meet the other arm that the New York Yankees acquired in a trade this week when they sent Nick Rumbelow and his 40-man roster spot west. His name is Juan Then, imagine the “Then and Now” jokes this guy is going to have to endure as he climbs the ranks within the Yankees system, and he is an arm that I am personally really excited to watch grow and progress. This is Meet a Prospect: The Juan Then and Now Edition.

Then is just 17-years old and was signed as an international free agent by the Seattle Mariners back on July 2, 2016. Now before writing this post I knew absolutely nothing about Then but I do know that the best of the best in terms of international free agents tend to get signed immediately as the international signing period opens up annually on July 2. Then signed as a 16-year old, usually another sign that the prospect has shown potential, in 2016 for just $77,000.

Then made his professional debut in 2017 in the Dominican Summer League posting a 20-2 record with a 2.64 ERA. Then made 13 starts for the DSL Mariners striking out 56 batters in 61.1 innings while holding opposing batters to just a .220 batting average against which was good for a 1.06 WHIP.

Then has a pitcher’s build standing at 6’1” and weighing in at 155 lbs. as a right-handed starter. Then has a lot of time and a lot of room to grow into his frame as he matures and gets older, which is scary when you consider that Then is already throwing in the low 90 MPH range with his fastball. Then also has a changeup and a second breaking ball that he will have to develop if he wants to be a starting pitcher long-term with the team.

Then has a lot of potential to be a great arm and addition for the Yankees and I personally look forward to watching him progress over the course of the next few seasons. Welcome to the organization, Juan, and also welcome to the Yankees family. 

Meet a Prospect: JP Sears

The New York Yankees and the Seattle Mariners also pulled off a trade prior to the Rule 5 Draft deadline as New York sent RHP Nick Rumbelow to the Mariners for a pair of pitching prospects, JP Sears and Juan Then. Let’s meet them one at a time starting with Sears. This is Meet a Prospect: The JP Sears Edition.

JP Sears is a 21-year old left-handed pitcher that the Seattle Mariners drafted in the 11^th round in this year’s MLB First Year Players Draft out of The Citadel. While at The Citadel Sears pitched to a 17-15 record with a 2.98 ERA while compiling 317 strikeouts in just 253 innings. Sears played in 46 games while at The Citadel starting all but four of them. As a polished college arm you would think that Sears could potentially be a quick mover through the Yankees system while giving them some depth once the likes of Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield graduate to the Major League level.

Sears did appear in 17 games after being drafted this season as a relief pitcher striking out 51 batters in 28 innings pitched. Sears is not a big guy, he is just one inch taller than Sonny Gray at 5’11”, and his fastball barely touches 90 MPH meaning that Sears relies heavily on deception, command and control of his secondary pitches that include an average curveball and a changeup that sets up his fastball.

Sears is not going to appear on any Top 10 prospects list any time soon, although he was the Mariners 21^st best prospect in their farm system at the time of the trade, but I think that the lefty could still be useful. He reminds me a lot of a raw Luis Cessa or Chad Green in the way that many won’t be raving about his addition but in a couple years we may be all thankful that the trade happened. Brian Cashman has a sneaky way of making that happen a lot lately.

Win, lose or draw the Yankees cleared a 40-man roster spot and added two live arms to the organization so it’s hard to be upset about that. We’re rooting for you JP, welcome to the family. 

All Aboard the Yankees Train...

Credit:  Charles Wenzelberg, New York Post

The 40-Man Chess Match…

Yesterday figured to be a very busy day for the Yankees as MLB teams had to set their 40-man Rosters of Record for Rule 5 eligibility (draft to be held at the conclusion of next month’s Winter Meetings in Orlando, FL) and it was.

Before the past weekend, the Yankees only had two open spots on the 40-man. Then, a few trades later, the Yankees were able to protect six young prospects from becoming potential ex-Yankees. Granted, any player chosen in the Rule 5 Draft has to stick on a MLB roster for the entire year but it happened as recent as last year when the San Diego Padres held on to Yankees catching prospect Luis Torrens (even though the very young Torrens was over-matched at the Major League level).  

DEPARTURES

RHP Nick Rumbelow

RHP Ronald Herrera

LHP Caleb Smith

1B Garrett Cooper

ADDITIONS

LHP Reiver Sanmartin

LHP J.P. Sears

RHP Juan Then

RHP Michael King

International Bonus Pool Money ($250,000)

ADDED TO THE 40-MAN ROSTER

RHP Domingo Acevedo

RHP Albert Abreu

RHP Jonathan Loaisiga

INF Gleyber Torres

INF Thairo Estrada

OF Billy McKinney

Trade: Nick Rumbelow to the Seattle Mariners for LHP J.P. Sears and RHP Juan Then. I thought this was the best trade. Sears, 21, fits the Yankees mold as a former collegiate player who could be useful in the bullpen. Even though his fastball tops out at 92 mph, he has been something of a strikeout machine. In his final year at The Citadel, he led NCAA Division I with 142 K’s in 95 1/3 innings. Then (not the pitcher), last year, in his first year in the Minors, he struck out 51 batters in 27 2/3 innings. Then (the pitcher), 17, a projected middle of the rotation starter, is the only new prospect to crack MLB’s Top 30 Prospects for the Yankees (his debut is at #28 in front of RHPs Giovanny Gallegos and Trevor Stephan).  

Credit:  MLB.com

Trade:  Ronald Herrera to the Texas Rangers for LHP Reiver Sanmartin.  Herrera provides the Rangers with an arm that is nearly ready while the Yankees buy some time with a lower level prospect. Sanmartin, 21, is a year younger than Herrera and has compiled a 14-4 record with 2.62 ERA over three minor league seasons.  

Credit:  MiLB.com

Trade: Caleb Smith and Garrett Cooper to the Miami Marlins for Michael King and Shohei Otani Money. The Yankees lose a valuable lefty with Smith’s departure but I figured that his roster spot was the least secure. Cooper did a decent job when called upon last year, but it was inevitable that the Yankees would have to make a decision between Tyler Austin and Cooper despite the latter owning a name that recalls the late great actor Gary Cooper and the movie classic The Pride of the Yankees. The writing was on the wall when Billy McKinney started working out at first base in The Arizona Fall League. This trade is being advertised as Derek Jeter’s first even if he probably didn’t handle any of the negotiations. Marlins VP of Player Development and Scouting Gary Denbo knows a thing or two about Yankees prospects. Many were calling this trade a huge win for the Marlins but I thought it served a very useful purpose for the Yankees. They cleared two spots on the roster which ensured that Thairo Estrada and Jonathan Loaisiga ("Johnny Lasagna") could be protected and added a lottery ticket with the 22-year-old King. Maybe King never realizes his dream, but the additional international bonus pool money gives the Yankees a total of $3.5 million to pursue Shohei Otani. If the Yankees are successful in signing Otani, it would be very hard to look at this trade as a failure for the Yankees regardless of how Smith or Cooper eventually perform for the Marlins.  

The Yankees should gain better clarity about the availability of Otani later today. The MLBPA extended the posting agreement deadline, which had been scheduled to expire yesterday, by 24 hours. The new deadline is tonight at 8 pm ET.  If the parties are able to agree on a new posting agreement, it ensures that Otani will be posted this off-season and will make his much anticipated trip to the United States to choose his next team (or as I prefer, sign with the Yankees).

Credit:  The Japan Times

The Yankees will need to make additional roster moves should they sign Otani and/or re-sign CC Sabathia but for now, the Yankees are prepared for next month’s Rule 5 Draft. I am fearful of losing LHP Nestor Cortes, RHP Cale Coshow, and/or RHP J.P. Feyereisen, among others, but it speaks to the strength of the Yankees farm system that the potential losses will hurt. 

I can’t end this post without mentioning another transaction that occurred yesterday even if it was non-Yankees news. The Toronto Blue Jays waived former Yankees fan favorite Rob Refsnyder and he was claimed by the Cleveland Indians. While I wish Refsnyder well in Cleveland, I kind of wish that he’d go somewhere like San Francisco where the Yankees wouldn’t have to routinely see him. I hold out hope that Refsnyder will achieve the promise he once held but admittedly his flame of potential is growing dimmer. 

Credit:  Mark Lomoglio, Icon Sportswire

Now that the 40-man roster maneuvering has been completed, I fully expect the next week to be very quiet. Perhaps there are more managerial interviews but most likely, we’ll be on the other side of the Thanksgiving Weekend before we see any notable Yankees news.  

While I would have loved being able to protect every valuable prospect, I thought the Yankees did a very good job covering the best of the best. Project Next Dynasty continues on its very very bright and positive path. We are now accepting applications for Bandwagon Fans. Go Yankees!

Workin' on the Weekends...

The First Round continues…

Brian Cashman, the general manager currently working on a handshake deal with Yankees Managing General Partner Hal Steinbrenner, was burning the weekend oil yesterday.  

After interviewing Hensley Meulens and Aaron Boone over the previous two days, Los Angeles Dodgers third base coach Chris Woodward was in town to meet with Cash on Saturday. I don’t know Woodward and perhaps he may be a wonderful manager one day, but I don’t think he’s the right guy for the job right now. In his post-interview comments, he talked much about what Dave Roberts did. I am less concerned about what Roberts did and more concerned about what Woodward would do. I don’t want Dave Roberts 2.0.  Roberts did an outstanding job, but the new Yankees manager needs to be his own man. I know that Roberts name came up because the questions were asked about how Woodward gained insight working with the man who led the Dodgers to the doorstep of a World Series championship this year. But I really want a manager who is strong and confident in his own words and style. I thought Aaron Boone did a better job addressing the media despite the lack of any coaching experience.  

It is well known the Yankees want a manager who will accept analytics and input from the front office. When Woodward was asked about analytics, he responded, “As a coach, it took the progression from Seattle to L.A. for me to understand the benefit of it.” That tells me he didn’t come to fully appreciate analytics until the last two years considering he joined the Dodgers on December 17, 2015.  

Maybe I am overly negative about Woodward because I do not really know anything about him. I wasn’t in the room when he talked with Cashman, but he’s probably the least preferred (for me) of the candidates interviewed. I’d rank the candidates, based solely on those who have interviewed, in this order:

YANKEES MANAGER

1. Hensley Meulens
2. Aaron Boone
3. Rob Thomson
4. Eric Wedge
5. Chris Woodward

Here is my order for preferred bench coaches:

YANKEES BENCH COACH

1. Al Pedrique
2. Eric Wedge
3. Rob Thomson
4. Jay Bell
5. A name that has not expressed interest in coaching or managing…Jorge Posada (if he did have interest, I’d move Hip-Hip-Jorge further up the list)

I feel strongly that Pedrique needs to be part of the 2018 coaching staff. He knows the young Baby Bombers better than anyone. There is no one that has the same level of relationships that he’s built with Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Clint Frazier, Jordan Montgomery, Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird, Chance Adams and others. He is credited for believing in a smallish-16 year old Jose Altuve when no one else would. After many other teams, including the Yankees, passed on Altuve for being too small, Pedrique talked the Houston Astros into giving the 2017 AL MVP and World Series Champion $15,000 to sign. That might be the best $15,000 ever spent in Major League Baseball, at least in modern times. Pedrique was able to see beyond the physical size to view the talent and the heart of the player. 

Credit:  Cheryl Pursell, via Pinstriped Prospects

I had to put Posada’s name on the list. I miss the guy’s passion and intensity. When he’s on the field, there’s probably not too many guys that want to win more.   

You may have different thoughts but that's fine.  No one said that we had to agree.

No word if the Yankees will continue to interview more guys before moving on to Round 2. I had expected Jerry Hairston, Jr to talk but there have not been any indications he will.  Brad Ausmus has made it known that he wants to take a year off before resuming his managerial career. He was interested in the Red Sox job only because it was close to his home in Cape Cod and he grew up as a Red Sox fan. Aside from the Red Sox, Ausmus wants to devote the next year to his family. You can’t blame him for his priorities. I thought maybe the Yankees should interview Pittsburgh Pirates coach Joey Cora so that the Red Sox-Yankees Wars could be the Battle of the Cora Brothers. Okay, I am just kidding on that one. For the reasons I cite Pedrique as the preferred bench coach, I believe he should be afforded the opportunity to interview for the managing job.  

We’ll see. The process continues and should gain better clarity over the next days and weeks as we move forward.

Making Room on the 40-Man…

Monday, November 20th is a big day for the Yankees. The 40-man roster of record for Rule 5 eligibility must be set by 7 pm Central Time. The Yankees had previously added outfielder Jake Cave and reliever Nick Rumbelow to the 40-man roster, which left two spots open. With big names like Gleyber Torres, Albert Abreu and Billy McKinney, among others, that need to be protected, something has to give on the 40-man roster.  

On Saturday, the first move was made when the Yankees sent Rumbelow to the Seattle Mariners for two lower level prospects…LHP J.P. Sears and RHP Juan Then.  Sears, 21, was an 11th round selection in the 2017 MLB Draft. Then, 17, was an international signing for $77,500 in 2016 out of the Dominican Republic.  

John Patrick Sears pitched at Class A level after his draft selection last year. A reliever, he pitched a total of 27.2 innings for two teams.  In 17 games, he struck out 51 batters while walking only 12.  His ERA was a combined 0.65, but he did not give up any earned runs when he moved from Short Season-A Everett to Full Season-A Clinton (10 innings of work).  He is “Sonny Gray-sized”…alright, an inch taller (5’11”).  According to Baseball America, he works in the 88-92 mph range with a high spin fastball and uses deception from a low delivery slot.

Credit:  Citadel Athletics

Juan Then (man, did the ‘now and then’ jokes start popping up on Twitter) is obviously still very young (and raw). He carries high upside and projects as a mid-rotation starter.  Then pitched rookie level ball in the Dominican Summer League and was 2-2, 2.64 ERA in 61.1 innings. He struck out 56 batters. His fastball sat in the 90-92 mph range, and he also worked with a couple of offspeed pitches.  

It’s tough to see a Major League-ready arm depart for future hopefuls, but it is the price that must be paid when you own one of the best farm systems in baseball. The Yankees will lose quality talent through Rule 5 but moves like this help protect more players. Last year was tough when the Yankees lost young catching prospect Luis Torrens who stuck on the San Diego Padres’ roster all season. I expect this year to be no different. For Rumbelow, he’s 26 and will have a much clearer shot at making a 2018 opening day roster with an opportunity to join the Mariners bullpen already stocked with former Yankees David Phelps and James Pazos.  

I wonder if Brian Cashman is working today. Stupid question, I know he is. Go Yankees!

Disliking Off-Season Inactivity…

Baseball is such a rush. It starts in February when pitchers and catchers report, and then slowly builds over the course of the next eight months, reaching the adrenaline rush of the post-season, capped by the exhilarating World Series. Then, nothing. We can only wait and watch as the Yankees beat writers jump from one potential story to another without yielding much fruit. 

Things will pick up in a few weeks as we approach the Winter Meetings, but for now, we just have to sit around wondering when the Yankees will give us an indication who they might be considering for the job to lead the 2018 Yankees. 

Without much to really think about, here are some of my random thoughts...

Alex Rodriguez, Just Say No…

I can honestly say that I have no desire to see Alex Rodriguez named as Yankees manager. I do not dispute A-Rod’s baseball knowledge and I know that he’s been a positive influence on the younger players during Spring Training but neither of those attributes qualify him as a Major League manager. This is a man who was suspended an entire year for PED use after he had already been implicated with earlier use of performance-enhancing drugs. I was glad to see A-Rod’s time as an active member of the Yankees end and I have no interest in watching him don the pinstripes again (outside of brief Spring Training appearances).  As it is, I am tired of the daily “J-Rod” updates.  If Alex became the Yankees manager, those daily sightings of Jennifer Lopez and A-Rod would only worsen.  I lived through the Bronx Zoo of the 1970’s.  I am not willing to entertain the thought of The Bronx Zoo, Part II. So count me among those with no interest in seeing A-Rod become manager of the Yankees.

Jake Cave, Member of the 40-Man Roster…

It took awhile and included a detour through Cincinnati, but Jake Cave finally earned a spot on the Yankees 40-Man Roster when he was added on Monday. 

Cave was drafted by the Yankees in the 6^th Round of the 2011 MLB Draft out of Kecoughtan High School in Hampton, VA.  He was left unprotected when he became Rule 5 eligible after the 2015 season and was drafted by the Cincinnati Reds.  He started 2016 Spring Training very hot for the Reds but by the end of camp had cooled considerably.  In the end, the Reds opted to keep a 30-year old outfielder (Jordan Pacheco), who was released by the Reds in June 2016, over the then-23 year old Cave. At the time of his return to the Yankees, Reds manager Bryan Price offered the following comments:  “He was and is a terrific young player, and we all saw him as a big-leaguer. There was just some limitations on how much playing time I thought I could get him over the course of this year. My big concern was the history with Donald Lutz and Neftali Soto, guys that have come up and really not played much at a very young age and how they were able to deal with that and when they returned to the minor leagues how they performed afterwards, and I would hate to see that happen to Jake as a guy who really got limited playing time early in the season and how that would have affected his long-term development.”

Credit:  MLB.com

Cave returned to the Yankees but rather than sulk, he continued to work on his craft.  He was left unprotected again in 2016 but was not selected in that year’s Rule 5 Draft.  His performance in 2017 exceeded expectations as he finished with 20 home runs and 56 RBI’s at AA/AAA combined.  His batting line was .305/.351/.542 with .893 OPS in 103 total games.  His hard work has been acknowledged by the Yankees and he’ll get an opportunity to go to the Major League Camp with the Yankees in February for the first time. 

Cave profiles as a fourth outfielder but he is clearly a success story among Yankees prospects.  With guys like Cave and Billy McKinney chomping at the bit, the Yankees need to clear out Jacoby Ellsbury and/or Brett Gardner to make way for the younger guys. I’d hate to see Gardner go but it is Clint Frazier’s time for left field.  Aaron Hicks is a better center fielder than Ellsbury.  So, I’d prefer to see Hicks and Frazier in the starting outfield with Aaron Judge, and guys like Cave and/or McKinney backing them up. 

The Yankees also added reliever Nick Rumbelow to the 40-man roster. Rumbelow had Tommy John surgery in 2016 and missed part of the 2017 season with his recovery. After pitching briefly for the Double-A Trenton Thunder, he was lights out for the Triple A-Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders. In 17 games (covering 29 innings) for the RailRiders, Rumbelow was 5-1 and had a sterling 1.12 ERA with 5 saves. He struck out 30 batters, while walking only 8.  Rumbelow, like Cave, is a success story.  He was released by the Yankees in November 2016 (free to go anywhere like Nathan Eovaldi did when he signed with the Tampa Bay Rays).  Rumbelow opted to re-sign with the Yankees on December 15, 2016 and we’re glad he did.

Credit:  Thomas A Ferrara, Newsday

The Yankees still have a number of Rule 5 decisions to make but these were a couple of easy ones.  I have no doubt the Yankees will be forced to leave quality talent unprotected for this year’s Rule 5 Draft.  GM Brian Cashman, between his managerial interviews and negotiation of a new contract, has his work cut out for him. 

Free Agency is Upon Us…

Free Agents became available to talk to other teams on Monday afternoon. Most forecasts show the Yankees to be very limited players in the FA arena as they attempt to avoid MLB’s competitive balance tax and reset future penalties for going above the payroll threshold.  Sadly, the Boston Red Sox were able to do that this year, so they’ll be more aggressive this off-season. During the press conference yesterday to announce new Red Sox manager Alex Cora, Dave Dombrowski, President of Baseball Operations, was asked if the luxury tax would be limitation. He responded, “No, I do not”. The same question was posed to Red Sox owner John Henry and he replied with, “Well, (Dombrowski) answered the question. He said he could go over.”  I would not be surprised to see the Red Sox go hard and heavy after Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer. 

Most forecasts that I have seen only show the Yankees signing Japanese two-way star Shohei Otani and CC Sabathia. Without too many moves necessary, I’d be very happy to see the Yankees acquire Otani. There is uncertainty with the current dispute in negotiations between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball for a new posting agreement. However, Otani took a step in the positive direction by hiring Creative Artists Agency (CAA) to represent him if he is posted and made available to MLB teams this off-season. 

Credit:  Junko Ozaki, AP

I am not overly excited about the anticipated return of Chase Headley to third base for the 2018 season. The question will be whether Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar will be ready. I doubt either one breaks camp as the starter but it could happen sooner rather than later.  Headley runs too hot and cold for me. I’d prefer to see greater consistency out of the position to protect the big bats in the lineup. I’d love to see the return of Todd Frazier, but the timing is not right and the Yankees are not in a position to offer a free agent multiple years at third base. For the short-term, we’ll have to deal with Headley.

Dueling Airwaves… 

It was funny yesterday that both Yankees GM Brian Cashman and former Yankees manager Joe Girardi were giving interviews at the same time. It’s tough listening to Girardi as he really sounds like a guy who wanted to be a part of the next great Yankees dynasty. I am surprised that the Washington Nationals didn’t make a run at Girardi with their World Series-caliber roster. But then again, the Nats aren’t known for spending cash on the managerial position and perhaps they were too far down the road with new manager Dave Martinez. 

At this point, it appears that Girardi will sit out a year (perhaps taking a broadcasting position) and will emerge as a viable managerial candidate in the 2018 off-season. 

The more Cashman talks about communication as a primary reason that Girardi was not re-hired and in particular his relationship with the younger players, it leads me to believe that there are reasons at play that we will never know. Maybe one day when Cashman retires and writes his memoirs. 

I don’t know about you, but I am ready for some genuine Yankees news. These quiet days leading up to the Baseball Winter Meetings next month are tough. I am getting a little tired of watching Houston Astros show up on Saturday Night Live or Carlos Correa discussing how he decided to propose to his girlfriend immediately after the World Series had ended on the Jimmy Kimmel show. Justin Verlander’s wedding pics in Italy are nice, but I want to know about our guys.  It is time to get the Yankees back in the news. 

As always, Go Yankees!

Looking Ahead to the 2017 September Call Ups

September call ups are just around the corner in Major League Baseball which means prospects, and for some teams reinforcements, are on the way. The New York Yankees are one of those teams that can truly say that reinforcements are on the way as there is a bunch of useful and talented players down on the farm as we stand here a mere week and a half away from September 1^st. Let’s take a look at some of the potential September call ups and see who will or can be most useful for the team as they push towards the postseason.

Clint Frazier will be a day one call up for the Yankees if his left oblique allows him to be healthy and on the field. Frazier was doing well for the big league club before his injury and will definitely be in the mix at all three outfield positions and at DH for the remainder of the 2017 season.

The Yankees love carrying three catchers or more in September and Kyle Higashioka should be up on September 1 if his back and shoulder allows. Higashioka has battled back injuries for much of this season and went on the disabled list this past weekend with a shoulder injury. If Higashioka is healthy he will be here, if not the Yankees may run with just two catchers until he is healthy enough.

Miguel Andujar will likely be a day one call up as well after a short, but impressive, stint with the Yankees at third base earlier this season. Andujar won’t come up for his defense at third base, especially with both Todd Frazier and Chase Headley healthy, but his bat could earn him a few at-bats off the bench down the stretch.

Now is the part of the story where we talk about the potential arms down on the Yankees farm and the part where Joe Girardi and his binder turned iPad begin to salivate when thinking about the pitching matchups. Domingo German could come up to take some of the pressure off Chad Green, Ben Heller could be a guy to come into a game and get a strikeout or three when necessary as he boasts a 13.3 K/9 ratio at Triple-A this season, and Jonathan Holder could make his return to the Yankees bullpen after making the team out of spring training camp.

Is there anyone the Yankees could make a 40 man roster spot for? Nick Rumbelow missed the entire 2016 season with Tommy John surgery and was optioned off the 40 man roster before getting healthy and dominating Triple-A hitting in 2017. Rumbelow will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft and/or minor league free agency at the end of the season so if the team is keen on keeping him they could add him sooner rather than later. 

First Wave of Yankees Spring Cuts Are In

I know we are a bit late to the party but we had a scheduled day off or two this weekend so we are just getting caught back up. The first wave of spring training cuts are in and some of the Yankees top prospects are being assigned to minor league camps, as expected and as predicted by yours truly here on the blog just last week.

The Yankees cut 11 players over the weekend and assigned them to minor league camps including left-hander Justus Sheffield, right-hander J.P Feyereisen, RHP Brady Lail, RHP Nick Rumbelow, LHP Joe Mantiply, LHP Evan Rutckyj, LHP Daniel Camarena, LHP James Reeves, C Jorge Saez, C Francisco Diaz and C Kellin Deglan. I had Sheffield, Saez, Diaz, Deglan and Rutckyj going down but I totally whiffed on Feyereisen, Lail, Mantiply, Rumbelow and Reeves. I am also shocked to see Clint Frazier, James Kaprielian, Gleyber Torres and Jorge Mateo still in Yankees camp. Maybe after the World Baseball Classic? Who knows?

More cuts will come as the Yankees try to dwindle their roster down to just 25 players so stay tuned. When those cuts and assignments are made we will have them here for you on the blog. Stay tuned.

Welcome Back Nick Rumbelow!

The New York Yankees are at it again, this time they brought back Nick Rumbelow. The team designated Rumbelow for assignment earlier this winter as the right-hander will miss most of, if not all of, the 2017 regular season as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery but the team has brought him back on a new minor league deal according to Robert Pimpsner and our friends over at Pinstriped Prospects.

Rumbelow, just 25-years old, was originally drafted by the New York Yankees in the seventh round of the 2013 MLB First Year Players Draft out of LSU. By the 2015 season Rumbelow had already reached the Major Leagues appearing in 17 games down the stretch before hurting his arm just one game into the 2016 season.

Rumbelow had Tommy John surgery this season after going on the disabled list on April 11^th so a late August or September call up is not completely out of the realm of possibilities but it is very likely that he misses the entire regular season just to be sure he’s healthy and ready. Either way, welcome home.

Pitchers, Tommy John Surgery and the Analysis of Why

I hope you find the topic of Tommy John surgery, who it’s happening to and why it’s happening so frequently in today’s game an interesting subject because it’s going to be the only subject we really talk about today on the blog. I put a lot, and I mean a lot, of research into this blog post and rather than have it buried in the masses here in a couple of hours and pushed to the second page I am going to give this post the time on the front page it deserves. All day long. It may take you all day long to read it so take your time and really let the information soak in as we take a look at the pandemic facing Major League Baseball right now. Tommy John surgery.

For the sake of this post we took the last 100 Tommy John surgery recipients and pooled our data from that. I felt like 100 ulnar collateral ligaments not only gave an ample sample size for any conclusion we could draw but it’s also a nice, even number that didn’t require a $400 graphing scientific calculator to spit out the numbers I wanted. Lazy, yet efficient. After pooling the last 100 Tommy John surgery victims we looked at certain criteria listed below in the excel spreadsheet in order to see if we could find a pattern, common denominator or something that may lead to figuring this whole thing out. Do I expect to change the world with this post? No, but I’m hoping that maybe I can spark the mind that does and that would be payment enough for me.

MLB Player Analysis has a Google Doc that you can reference online and that is where most of the information below both in the chart and written in this blog post came from so kudos to them. I included certain things in the chart like average fastball velocity, build/frame and other materials as well that I thought may piece together the puzzle as well so if you want to see the original document you can find it HERE. Without further ado here is the last 100 Tommy John surgery victims (at the time of this writing) and some pertinent information that we will dissect below.

Here are a few bullet notes from what we found that I think really can help us figure out what is going on here and why this is happening at such an alarming rate:

      84% of the pitchers were born in the United States while 8% were from the Dominican Republic, 5% were from Venezuela, 2% were from Japan and 1% were from Australia.

      82% of these pitchers were age 30 or younger while 18% were above 30-years old.

Now this raises an interesting question. 84% of the last 100 pitchers to get Tommy John surgery (at the time of this writing) were born in the United States. Now Major League Baseball, a sport that thrives on being culturally diverse, has players reach the big leagues from all over the country so why are mainly American born pitchers having the surgery and not players from Mexico, Canada, Korea and other parts of the world having this pandemic with their arms? Why have only two from Japan, one from Australia, 5 from Venezuela and 8 from the Dominican Republic had the surgery?

Is it the throwing at such an early age? Is it the throwing of breaking balls as early as Little League? Is it pitching once every five days in the Major Leagues where Japanese pitchers for example throw once a week? Every pitcher not named Mariano Rivera throws breaking stuff so is it fastball velocity? Or is it merely a coincidence? It’s hard to call 84% a coincidence but let’s keep delving into this and see what we find out.

The final thing I wanted to look at was a pitcher’s frame and how fast they throw a fastball. Some say mechanics may have a lot to do with it but when I see a fluid delivery like Chase Whitley and Ivan Nova undergo the surgery while in Yankees uniforms while pitchers like Aroldis Chapman and Tim Lincecum not going under the knife for elbow ligament replacement surgery I tend to think the windup and delivery has little to nothing to do with it as well. For every Carter Capps on this list you have another 10-20 Nathan Eovaldi’s who simply rear back and throw. Is it velocity? Is it frame? Is it both? Or is there simply no common factor here? Let’s look.

The average height and weight for a man in the United States according to a simple Google search is 5’10” and 195.5 pounds. Common sense would tell you that the higher above that average, up to a certain extent of course, the more “durable” you would be assuming conditioning and such being comparable across the board. Well as you can see there is no rhyme or reason to the pitchers frame either. You have big build undergoing the surgery, where stereotypically the bigger framed pitchers are thought to be more durable, while you also have some, albeit less, smaller framed pitchers undergoing the surgery as well. For the longest times the Johan Santana’s and Pedro Martinez type frames were considered to be a walking time bomb but this excel spreadsheet shows that to not be the case anymore, at least when it comes to Tommy John surgery.

And as you can see, and probably already know without me listing it, you have examples from every part of the velocity map here as well. You have your hard throwers like Nathan Eovaldi and the recently deceased, your soft tossers like Bronson Arroyo and Chase Whitley (and remember Jamie Moyer when you consider whether velocity has any bearing on Tommy John surgery) and about everything in between. They are all throwing off the same mound dimensions, using the same ball, etc. etc. etc. You also have players who have had duplicate Tommy John surgeries, Tim Collins, and players who never spent a day on the disabled list throughout their careers, Bronson Arroyo, on the list showing it’s also not a durability issue. It seems like these things simply just happen. And when you replace the ligament these things can still happen. And happen again.

Onward to the “probably useless knowledge but I wanted to include anyway because I found it interesting” portion of the program ladies and gentleman. Carry on.

      72% of the pitchers were right-handed while just 28% were left-handed.

      46% were from American League teams while 54% were from National League teams.

      28% of players never returned to the Major Leagues after their Tommy John surgery while 19% are still under that 12-15 month window which signifies they are still recovering.

      If 12-15 months is the general and average time to be out after a Tommy John surgery then 25% of pitchers missed that mark (again keeping in mind that 19% are still yet to be determined and 28% never returned). Only 28% of pitchers had the surgery and were back in the Major Leagues in 15 months or less.

      44% of these pitchers had Dr. James Andrews conduct the surgery.

So there you have it folks. Are we any better off or more knowledgeable than we were 20 minutes ago? Maybe not but like I said I don’t expect to change the game or the world with this post but maybe, just maybe, I can spark the mind that does with it. One can only hope. I hope you enjoyed reading and I hope this post wasn’t too awful long. If it was I at least hope you learned something from it. Have a great day everyone.

Oh, and please pass this post along to anyone and everyone you think may be interested in it. I put a lot of work and research into this and I want this post to touch as many people as possible. Thank you.