Thursday, October 27, 2022

Undies' 2022/2023 Offseason Plan

It's time for my annual "What I want to happen but won't and probably shouldn't" offseason plan. While the chances of these things happening may be slim to none, or otherwise obvious, it still helps me know where the team is at and where they need to improve.


To get this thing started I thought I’d address a few free agents, whose names have been mentioned as good fits for the New York Yankees…


I thought about Nolan Arenado for next year's squad, but I see no way the Cardinals let him get away (assuming he opts out, of course). St. Louis has about $30 million coming off the books next season and actually had a Luxury Tax payroll in 2022 about $25 million lower than in 2021. Furthermore, from what I've read, Arenado and the Cardinals like one another. So while I could look at ways to fit what could be a $30 million salary into things for next season, I really don't see the point of it.


I also took a look at Trea Turner, but I just didn't like the idea of handing a soon-to-be 30-year-old a ten-year contract. I wouldn't really be that upset if the Yankees signed him, as he'd be a pleasure to watch in pinstripes for most of that contract, but the length and AAV (I've read as high as $34 million) have me thinking twice.


And then there's Carlos Correa. I've been reading that he could be looking at an 8-year deal, which would mean he's on the team through his age-35 season, and that's more palatable than Turner. Yet, the Yankees could've signed a shortstop to a big contract last year and didn't, and they still have Peraza and Volpe around and looking good, which seemed to be the reason they passed on all those shortstops in the first place. It was hard enough writing this paragraph knowing I'd likely be disappointed, so to try and maintain some sanity I can't put Correa in my active roster for 2023 even though I'd like to. 


Now, without any adieu whatsoever, here we go (and I refuse to use the overused Joker gif)... 



The Yankees have a handful of guys that are now free agents, so I'm going to go over the ones I don't want returning...


Aroldis Chapman

Do I really need to explain this one? The only possible reason I could see the Yankees wanting to bring him back would be if they were desperate in the bullpen, but especially with Mike King returning they're not. 


Zack Britton

If he'd returned hot, which wasn't really expected, things would be different. But with the bullpen already shaping up I see no reason to bring Zack back. 


Jameson Taillon

When I started thinking about the offseason the idea of bringing back Taillon came to mind. However, with Cole, Cortes, Montas, and Severino (more on him later), along with other starting possibilities, I'm saying "bye".


Chad Green

I like the guy, and I would have thought hard about bringing him back but there's that whole Tommy John Surgery thing. 


Miguel Castro

I wouldn't be distraught if he were brought back, but I don't see a spot for him. Besides, he walks too many batters for my taste. I hate it when relievers walk batters.


Marwin Gonzalez

Nope. Years ago I wanted the Yankees to sign Marwin, but that feeling is long gone. His best trait is his defensive versatility, but that's not enough for me to want to see him back in pinstripes. 



So let's see where the Yankees should start spending some money...


Aaron Judge - 8 years $304 million


First of all, Aaron was bad this postseason. I don't need to post the stats, as seeing the Yankees eliminated by the Astros again hurt enough. But I just can't imagine not re-signing this guy. Yes, the end of that contract is going to hurt. Yes, Judge hasn't done well in the postseason in the last three years. But, to be honest, I don't see anyone that's a free agent or would be available in a trade, that I think makes a good replacement (and I mean in the lineup, not necessarily in right field). 


I'm a bit concerned about signing anybody for that much money into their late 30s, but Aaron is an entirely different monster. He's probably not going to bat above .300 every season, but based on the last couple of years I think it's safe to say his batting average is going to land between .285 and .300 regularly. And it's not like this is the first season he's led the league in walks, which will also help him maintain an OBP that pushes .400 year in and year out. Now, I don't expect Judge to hit 62 home runs a year, helping lead to a slugging percentage around .686 each year, but 50+ bombs a year is hardly a pipe dream. Put that all together and you have a guy that could at least get some MVP votes every season.


Then you have his defense, which is not only pretty darn good in right field, but good enough to take over centerfield for a big chunk of the season.


Oh, and have I mentioned how loved he is in New York?


I don't see how you can let Aaron Judge ever wear anything but a Yankees uniform.


Anthony Rizzo - 2 years $34 million


Chances are he opts out, but I think the Yankees need to get this guy back in pinstripes.


I can't count how many times Anthony has bailed out his infielders thanks to errant throws, not to mention how many base hits he took away on balls hit in his direction. Can you imagine if we still had Luke Voit or another average-to-poor defender at first base? I shudder at the thought, and that alone makes me want him back.


What makes him more attractive are those 32 home runs he hit from the left side. The Yankees have done a good job at taking advantage of the 81 games they play at Yankee Stadium, and a guy like Rizzo is a very good way to keep that up.


Finally, the guy's been a Yankee for a year and a half, yet teammates look up to and can learn from him. Outside of Aaron Judge, he may be the leader of that clubhouse.


Andrew Benintendi - 3 years $54 million (possible option for a 4th year)


The one part of the Yankees lineup that's bothered me is the fact they don't have a good option to bat lead-off. While I understood batting Judge at the #1 spot in order to guarantee that their best hitter got the most at-bats every game, we missed out on a lot of runs as 41 of Aaron's home runs and 15 of his doubles came with the bases empty. So it's imperative that we try to make sure someone is on base when Judge comes to bat, and that's where Benintendi comes in.


Last season in Kansas City Andrew was hitting .304 with an on-base percentage of .373. Mind you, both of those numbers were well above his norms (.279 and .351), but I believe Benny should be our lead-off hitter on Opening Day 2023. 


Other than being a good contact hitter (81.5% contact percentage last season, 33rd in MLB out of 130 batters), which is something the Yankees could really use (they were 21st in MLB in Contact %), Benintendi provides good left field defense that would play next to Bader's elite glove in center.


Exercise club option on Luis Severino for $15 million


In terms of ERA+ Luis was the second-best starter on the team last year (Cortes was #1), and the only thing that kept his Fangraphs Dollar Value from being well above that $15 million number was being limited to only 102 innings in 19 starts. If Sevy is let loose next season or gets close to the 190+ innings he threw in both 2017 and 2018 (before the injury bug bit him really hard), he'll be worth a heck of a lot more than $15 million, making his option a no-brainer to pick up.



We all know the Yankees need to make some big changes, and so far I haven't shown you guys anything. I've actually advocated for bringing back three guys that were on last year's team. So let's do some house cleaning...


1. Gleyber Torres, Josh Donaldson, Trystan Vrieling, & $12.5 million to Washington for Hunter Harvey & Zach Brzykcy


The Nationals got the least production from their second and third basemen in the entire National League last season. The man that played the most at third base (Maikel Franco), as well as the man with the next most time there (Ehire Adrianza), are free agents. Their starting second baseman, Cesar Hernandez, is also a free agent. 


Washington's farm system is middle of the road which tells me it may be hard for them to pull off a trade to acquire a good third baseman, let alone two decent infielders. Their payroll is middle of the road as well, so they're unlikely to spend to fill both spots. So getting an elite defensive third baseman that has some upside in his bat, with only one year remaining on his contract, along with an arbitration-eligible second baseman that can hit 20+ home runs is likely quite an attractive package to GM Mike Rizzo.


Throw in some money to help pay Donaldson, as well as a solid prospect, and the Nationals should be happy with their return in a trade. 


Let me say that I don't hate Torres, nor do I necessarily want him gone, but he is another guy that offers little with the bat outside of the occasional homer. His whiff, strikeout, and walk rates are sub-par to bad. And with Cabrera, Peraza, and soon Volpe to go along with a returning (in my plan) Rizzo and LeMahieu, room has to be made in the infield. 


Hunter Harvey has a good fastball (97th percentile per Baseball Savant), and started throwing a splitter in 2021 that got better this past season, which hopefully is the reason his home run rate dropped so low (0.6 HR/9) so it wasn't just an anomaly. If he can continue making that splitter more effective then I can see him being a strong reliever, which could be big for helping keep our pitchers fresh for later in the season. The other pitcher the Yankees would get here, Zach Brzykcy, is a 23-year-old that made his AAA debut this past season. I think that was a bit of an aggressive move as Zach started the year throwing 21.2 innings in high-A ball, then 38 innings in AA, before tossing his last 1.2 innings of 2022 in AAA. He's a high strikeout pitcher (13.9 K/9 between all the levels), and if he can lower his walks a bit (4.3 BB/9) he could see MLB action as early as the upcoming season. 


I believe only having to pay Josh Donaldson $12.5 million makes him worth something, even if it's mainly for his defense (Fangraphs Dollar Value was $12.9 million). 


2. Kyle Higashioka to Arizona for Yu Min-Lin and Andy Yerzy


Boy, did Higgy fool us in Spring Training or what? With a good glove and what looked to be some power from his bat we possibly had a sure-fire starting catcher on our hands, but it didn't take long for that idea to fizzle away. With regular playing time, I could see his bat being okay, or at least not a total dead spot in the lineup, and his glove is still pretty nice and should garner some interest.


One of the teams interested should be the Diamondbacks, who were 11th in the National League and 25th overall in productivity from behind the plate. What makes them an ideal trade partner is that they have a very good farm system that's ranked in the top 5 of most lists. Of course, the Yankees can't expect anything eye-popping in return, but someone stuck out to me...


Yu-Min Lin, who was signed to a minor-league deal as a free agent last year, is only 19 years old and posted some impressive strikeout numbers in rookie and A-ball. Of course, yes... it was a ways away from Major League Baseball, but at his age, it's pretty cool that he can throw in the lower 90s while also having a slider, curveball, changeup, and splitter. 


There isn't anything impressive about Andy Yerzy, as he's a catcher/first baseman that was drafted in the second round of the 2016 draft. At one point he looked like a nice catching prospect for the D-Backs, but he struggled in 2019, skipped 2020, had an okay season in 2021, and wasn't anything special in AA this past season. His future may very well be at first base, as that's where he spent most of his time in 2022, so I don't expect Andy to be anything more than minor league filler.


3. Aaron Hicks, Lou Trivino, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, & $10 million ($3.33 million for each season left on Hicks' contract) to Los Angeles (AL) for Aaron Loup & David Fletcher


According to Fangraphs Hicks was worth $11.6m and IKF $10.7m, so there's value to a team beyond the salaries of those two. The downside is the two extra seasons Hicks is under contract after 2023, which is why I'm taking back one of their contracts with the same number of years remaining. 


Trivino did a great job for us, and I wouldn't be sad one bit if he returned to the Yankees next season, but outside of a good fastball that leads to a solid strikeout rate and whiff percentage he gets hit fairly hard. So I like the idea of using him to help unload Hicks and IKF. 


Aaron Hicks can help by doing more than playing LF regularly (Brandon Marsh is no longer in LA and Jo Adell is not good), if the Angels do trade Ohtani he could allow Mike Trout to rest his legs more often as the DH (Even if they don't trade Shohei soon, Trout could DH more after 2023). 


Kiner-Falefa could give LAA a utility infielder that isn't under contract beyond next season, or play him regularly at 2B over Luis Rengifo. 


Aaron Loup's strikeout rate went down while his walk rate went up a bit in 2022, possibly due to using his changeup more and his slider less (he has a better slider than changeup). I actually had Aaron on my radar last offseason, as he crushed it with the Mets in 2021. He will become the highest paid reliever for the Yankees next season, but about $8 million less than Chapman was in 2022. Plus, he gives our manager another left-handed option in the bullpen. 


Remember that contract with three years remaining that I'm taking back? That's David Fletcher. Fletcher has not done much since signing that deal with the Angels after his nice season in 2020. His glove isn't great, but good enough if he's needed at short or second. If he's ever needed for an extended period of time I fully expect the Yankees to look at other options, though. But at less than $6 million a year, it's cool. 



So there you go, my offseason plans. Will they all happen? No way. Will some happen? I'm sure of it. But I had a lot of fun putting this together, and I hope you had fun reading it. I want to note that the lineup I put together has only two guys that are expected to have a strikeout rate above 20% (Stanton and Judge). Meanwhile, the Opening Day lineup for 2022 had five guys in it with that high of a strikeout percentage (Stanton, Judge, Gallo, Hicks, and Donaldson) while another one didn't start on Opening Day but was a regular (Torres). 


I'm sure many of you are wondering what's up with Anthony Volpe. Well, Volpe only played 22 games for AAA Scranton and wasn't that impressive. Actually, he wasn't that great in AA, either. I'd like to see him get more development time in the minors, and I certainly don't want him spending time on the bench. So leave him in Scranton to start the 2023 season, and we can reevaluate things in June.


Basically, the roster I've come up with has a lot of addition by subtraction built into it. The fact of the matter is last year's team was really good at run prevention, and they could score as well, but the problem was inconsistency. I can't say for sure this team will be more consistent, so it was important to leave enough money for significant mid-season upgrades should they be necessary, and I've certainly done that. 


I also like this plan because the Yankees hold onto their top prospects. In fact, the only prospect I'm trading is #15 Trystan Vrieling, and in the Higashioka trade, we're getting back Arizona's #15 prospect (Yu-Min Lin) who has a higher ceiling. So I've probably IMPROVED the farm system. 


One final thing before showing my active roster... arbitration estimates are provided by MLB Trade Rumors. Miscellaneous salary information, except for Josh Donaldson and Aaron Hicks, is provided by Cot's Baseball Contracts.


LF Andrew Benintendi* ($18m)

RF Aaron Judge ($38m)

1B Anthony Rizzo* ($17)

DH Giancarlo Stanton ($25m)

3B DJ LeMahieu ($15m)

CF Harrison Bader ($5.2m)

2B Oswaldo Cabrera# ($.75m)

SS Oswald Peraza ($.75m)

C Jose Trevino ($2m-A1)


BE Ben Rortvedt* - C ($.75m)

BE David Fletcher - MI ($5.833m)

BE Estevan Florial* - OF ($.75m)

BE Ryan LaMarre - OF ($.75m)


SP1 Gerrit Cole ($36m)

SP2 Nestor Cortes* ($3.5m-A1)

SP3 Luis Severino ($15m)

SP4 Frankie Montas ($7.7m-A3)

SP5 Domingo German ($2.6-A2)


RP Jonathan Loaisiga ($2.1m-A2)

RP Clay Holmes ($2.9m-A2)

RP Wandy Peralta* ($3.1m-A4)

RP Ron Marinaccio ($.75m)

RP Mike King ($1.2m-A1)

RP Lucas Luetge* ($1.7m-A2)

RP Hunter Harvey ($1m-A1)

RP Aaron Loup* ($8.5m)


MISCELLANEOUS SALARY INFORMATION

Money from Miami for Giancarlo Stanton: -$3 million

Paid to Washington for Josh Donaldson: $12.5 million

Paid to Los Angeles (AL) for Aaron Hicks: $3.33 million

Player Benefits: $16.5 million

40-Man Players in Minors: $2.25 million

0-3 yr bonus pool: $1.667 million


TEAM PAYROLL

$248.83 million ($259.31 million in 2021)



Nope, I'm not going to go along with cheap-ass Hal. Sure, I'm not going to go nuts and put a plan out there that's totally outside of reality, but I'm not going to put my name on something that is half-assed, either. 


I'm not going to sign Andrew Benintendi. I like the guy for all the reasons I mentioned earlier in this article, but I'd much rather have Carlos Correa on this team. Carlos brings a very good batting average, good on-base percentage, and plenty of postseason experience... including 20 games played in the World Series. So I'm giving Correa an 8-year contract worth $240 million. Now that would bring the total years and money below what Seager got last offseason from Texas, so a 9th year may be necessary, and since that takes him only through his age 36 season I'm not against going there. 


I discussed Trea Turner and Nolan Arenado earlier, but there's one more big bat I should touch on here... Brandon Nimmo. 


Nimmo's batting line the last couple of years, very good defense, and ability to run well, make him very attractive. Not to mention his left-handed bat. But I just can't ignore that he will turn 30 in late March next year, missed quite a bit of time in 2019 with a bulging disc in his neck, and missed a total of about two months in 2021 with hand and hamstring issues. While his next contract may only take him as far as his age 35 season, I'll take Correa through his age 35 or 36 season instead. 


The real decision was deciding between Benintendi or Rizzo, as I don't see both of them fitting into the team payroll. I'm kidding, it wasn't a hard decision, as I'm not only a big fan of Rizzo but the guy has become so beloved in New York (by both fans and teammates) in such a short amount of time. The left-handed power and great defense, along with a shorter contract, also help. 


This also puts the Yankees in a tough, but very nice, position as they'll have three good to great middle infield youngsters in Cabrera (who can actually play anywhere, hence his position in the below lineup), Peraza, and Volpe. So they could turn one of them into that starter of the future.


3B DJ LeMahieu ($15m)

RF Aaron Judge ($38m)

SS Carlos Correa ($30m)

DH Giancarlo Stanton ($25m)

1B Anthony Rizzo* ($17m)

CF Harrison Bader ($5.2m)

LF Oswaldo Cabrera# ($.75m)

2B Oswald Peraza ($.75m)

C Jose Trevino ($2m-A1)


BE Ben Rortvedt* - C ($.75m)

BE David Fletcher - MI ($5.833m)

BE Estevan Florial* - OF ($.75m)

BE Ryan LaMarre - OF ($.75m)


SP1 Gerrit Cole ($36m)

SP2 Nestor Cortes* ($3.5m-A1)

SP3 Luis Severino ($15m)

SP4 Frankie Montas ($7.7m-A3)

SP5 Domingo German ($2.6-A2)


RP Jonathan Loaisiga ($2.1m-A2)

RP Clay Holmes ($2.9m-A2)

RP Wandy Peralta* ($3.1m-A4)

RP Ron Marinaccio ($.75m)

RP Mike King ($1.2m-A1)

RP Lucas Luetge* ($1.7m-A2)

RP Hunter Harvey ($1m-A1)

RP Aaron Loup* ($8.5m)


MISCELLANEOUS SALARY INFORMATION

Money from Miami for Giancarlo Stanton: -$3 million

Paid to Washington for Josh Donaldson: $12.5 million

Paid to Los Angeles (AL) for Aaron Hicks: $3.33 million

Player Benefits: $16.5 million

40-Man Players in Minors: $2.25 million

0-3 yr bonus pool: $1.667 million


TEAM PAYROLL

$261.08 million ($259.31 million in 2021)


Shut up, Hal, and just write the damn checks!

If Hal or anyone else has something to say about this then comment or hit me up on Twitter (@Bryan_TGP). Thanks for reading, and regardless of Hal, Cashman, or Boone's incompetence... GO YANKEES!