Yankees Also Sign Hiroki Kuroda To 1 Year Deal

Via Jack Curry on YES, the Yankees have signed Hiroki Kuroda on a 1 year deal worth 10-11 million dollars. Here is the write up 

JackCurryYES Jack Curry 

Big night for the Yankees. They have agreed to a 1-year deal with Kuroda, pending a physical. Deal will be between $10 and $11 million.

In a matter of an hour the Yankees rotation went from

CC

Nova

Garcia

Burnett

Hughes

to 

CC

Pineda

Nova

Kuroda

Garcia/Burnett

Montero & Noesi Traded For Pineda & Campos

According to MLBTR

The Yankees have traded Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi to the Seattle Mariners for Jose Campo and Michael Pineda. Here is there write up:

Mariners, Yankees Swap Pineda For MonteroBy Mark Polishuk [January 13, 2012 at 6:51pm CST]
6:51pm: The deal is Pineda and Jose Campos for Montero and Hector Noesi, a source tellsMLB.com's Greg Johns (Twitter link).
6:43pm: The Mariners and Yankees have agreed to a trade that will send Michael Pineda to the Bronx in exchange for Jesus Montero, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  The trade involves more than just those two players, Heyman adds (both links via Twitter).

This obviously ends all talks and speculations with Roy Oswalt, Hiroki Kuroda, Edwin Jackson, Bartolo Colon, and all the other rental starting pitchers the Yankees have either been linked to or expressed interest in.

Express your content for finally having that #2 starter or your discontent for giving up on the biggest prospect we have had come through our system in a long time HERE

There is bound to be a LOT of people that feel strongly for this trade either way. I would love to hear your reaction.

Do they need a better rotation?

I like crunching numbers, and the vast majority of talk this off-season for the Yankees has had to do with improving the rotation. I've been an advocate of making a move, preferably a one-year deal for Hiroki Kuroda, in order to do just that. But does the rotation need to improve?

I took a look at Bill James' predictions in order to try and shed some light on that question. Now, I know, Bill's predictions are not gospel. Some would say they're worthless. But what's the worst that can happen? I waste an hour of my life? Well, that's okay. My time right now isn't all that valuable anyway.

Here's what the top five starters, in terms of most games started, did last season...

Name	IP	ER	ERA
CC Sabathia	237.1	79	3.00
AJ Burnett	190.1	109	5.15
Ivan Nova	165.1	68	3.70
Bartolo Colon	164.1	73	4.00
Freddy Garcia	146.2	59	3.62

All of that is good for a total ERA of 3.86. Now here are Bill James' predictions for what would most likely be the starting rotation next season...

Name	IP	ER	ERA
CC Sabathia	235	87	3.33
Ivan Nova	183	87	4.28
Freddy Garcia	144	68	4.25
Phil Hughes	102	42	3.71
AJ Burnett	173	83	4.32

First thing's first, I'd say that Hughes and Burnett both have higher ERAs. But CC, Ivan, and Freddy all had lower ERAs last year than they are predicted this year, so who knows? Honestly, I feel pretty sure that Phil and AJ won't pitch that well, but screw it. Let's go with those numbers anyway.

The total ERA for next season's five starters would be 3.95, a difference of .09 between 2011 and 2012. If Yankee starters threw 977 innings like they did last season, then that would only be a difference of about 10 runs over the season. Well add those 10 runs to last seasons runs allowed, and you'll find a differential of 200... which would still be the best in Major League Baseball.

So does the rotation really need an improvement? No. But that's if you believe Bill James. For comparison's sake ZiPS projections have Phil Hughes at an ERA of 4.84, while AJ Burnett's ERA is 5.31. Going by ZiPS projections then I'd say that the rotation does need to improve. But I wanted to show that according to some there is no need to spend another $12 million or so on Hiroki Kuroda, and certainly no need to spend about the same amount for Edwin Jackson... only for 3 or so years.