Saturday, October 29, 2022

The Not Ready for Offseason Players...

Anthony Rizzo, Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks (Photo Credit: John Minchillo/AP)

Season ends too quickly for the New York Yankees…


“As far as Boone’s concerned, we just signed him and for all the same reasons I listed a year ago,

I believe he is a very good manager. I don’t see a change there.”

 –Yankees Managing General Partner Hal Steinbrenner.


Well, so much for everyone’s offseason plan starting with the firing of Manager Aaron Boone. While I can so easily talk myself into all the right reasons Joe Maddon or Don Mattingly should be the next manager of the New York Yankees, the truth is we are married to Aaron Boone…for better or for worse.


Aaron Boone (Photo Credit: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

I personally like Boone. He seems like a fun, lighthearted guy that would be great to have a beer with and talk about the finer details of Major League Baseball. I only question his ability to manage a championship baseball team. He is an intelligent guy who has proven he can win from April to September, but then October happens. Or, in Boone’s case...does not happen. The inconsistency of lineups and the bullpen mismanagement, just to name a few faults…are the things that drive me nuts. I heard “punt lineup” more frequently this season than I ever have before.

Understanding that Boone is the manager of the Yankees for at least the next two years, there must be other changes to improve the team, to make it better when October arrives. Fire or move Bench Coach Carlos Mendoza. By all accounts, Mendy is a nice guy, and he is a knowledgeable coach, but my problem is that he is too much like Boone. Boone needs to be challenged. He does not need a guy sitting next to him always in agreement. Decisions must be challenged. I have been screaming for an experienced bench coach since Boone arrived. First it was a buddy, and now it is a good friend on the coaching staff. I want someone who can make Boone feel uncomfortable. Someone who is not afraid to speak his mind. Last year, before he was hired by the Mets, I thought Buck Showalter would be an ideal bench coach. Granted, he probably would have never taken the position, but someone along those lines. Old school, hard-nosed, opinionated, willing to consider analytics but ultimately making decisions on the strength of knowledge and experience intertwined with the information provided by the nerds.

I feel strongly that a Don Zimmer-like bench coach would make Boone a better manager, just as Zimmer helped usher Joe Torre into the Hall of Fame. Even a guy like Hensley Meulens, already on Boone’s staff as an assistant hitting coach, would be superior to Mendoza. I always thought Ron Washington (currently third base coach for the Atlanta Braves) was a good coach and would certainly fit. Regardless, Boone needs a different and more experienced voice in his ear to help make better decisions.

The Aaron Judge rumors are getting old, and the off-season has not officially started. The Yankees could have avoided this mess by signing Judge to an extension prior to the season. We have heard the San Francisco Giants will not underbid in their attempt to bring the slugger home to California, a story subsequently refuted by the Giants. The talk in Los Angeles about moving Mookie Betts to second base to open right field for Judge in Dodger Stadium. Steve Cohen using his financial might to bring Judge to Queens. There will be many more rumors before Judge signs. Yesterday’s misinformation was a Bleacher Report that Judge had removed the Yankees as a connection on Instagram and Twitter, only later to learn Judge has never had the Yankees as a connection.

I want Aaron Judge to return to the Yankees. I want him to be the next Captain of the team. Like Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera before him, he should only wear one uniform in his playing career…the famed Pinstripes. But…what if Judge does not want to stay in New York? We must be open for the possibility that other factors may draw him elsewhere. I will continue to hope for the best, and not try to read too much into the rumors. Hal Steinbrenner understands what Aaron Judge means to the Yankees, the City of New York, and baseball in general. If the Yankees do not use their vast resources to retain one of baseball’s best players, it will be a disappointment for sure. Yet, if he leaves, the sun will still rise the next day and the team will move forward. We will still be Yankee fans, and there will be other players we cheer for. No one player is greater the game.

Aaron, please know we want you back. Always and forever, our friend.


Aaron Judge & Current (and, hopefully, Future) Teammates (Photo Credit: MLB.com)

The Anthony Rizzo opt-out. Rizzo, who has up to five days after the World Series to exercise the opt-out of the second year of his two-year, $32 million contract, is expected to do it. I want him to stay in New York, but only if it makes financial sense. I have seen fans suggesting a four-year, $100 million deal for Rizzo which does not make sense (at least not to me). Rizzo will turn 34 next August. A two- or three-year deal, maybe. I value strong defense at first base, and Rizzo’s leadership in the clubhouse has been vital. The Yankees are better with, than without, him. Hopefully the two sides can reach an agreement that is mutually beneficial for both sides.


Anthony Rizzo (Photo Credit: @Yankees via MLB.com)

The other free agents. The Yankees would be foolish not to exercise the club option on Luis Severino so to see his name on free agent lists seems premature. We can easily say that Luis Severino will be a Yankee in 2023. His 2023 contract calls for $15 million and carries a $2.75 million buyout if the Yankees do not pick up the club option. There is no chance they will not.

I would like to see Andrew Benintendi return to play left field. With his ability to get on-base (a sorely needed ingredient a couple of weeks ago), he fits the roster and makes the team better. I get the fans’ love of impending free agent Brandon Nimmo, and he would be a great add but I can easily “settle” for Benny’s return. Speaking of Mets/ex-Mets, Michael Conforto has been cited as a possible replacement for Aaron Judge. If Nimmo and Conforto are Yankees next year, something went horribly wrong. Not trying to disrespect Conforto, whom I think is a good ball player, but rather the circumstances that could potentially place both Nimmo and Conforto on the Yankees.

While I would love to see the Yankees and Zack Britton come together for a short-term deal, it seems more probable his Yankee playing days are over. I appreciate his attempt to comeback late in the season after his recovery from Tommy John surgery even if it proved unsuccessful. I have enjoyed Britton on the roster, and he is a great spokesperson for the team. It seems more probable he will pitching elsewhere next season. I appreciate his time with the Yankees and wish the ending could have been better for all concerned.

I never liked Chad Green, the starter, but Chad Green, the reliever, was a force in the Yankees bullpen. Unfortunately, he had been trending downward in recent seasons, and now he is lost for the majority of the 2023 season after Tommy John surgery earlier this year. It seems unlikely to me that the Yankees will re-sign him. He will depart the same way Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Pineda, and Tommy Kahnle did before him. Another team, like the Dodgers or Rays, will sign him to a two-year deal, hoping for the best in the second season.

Jameson Taillon seems like a goner. There were times I loved Jamo and times I could not stand him. I think if I had my choice, I would keep him on the roster, but it seems the Yankees will go in other directions. For the regular season, he was 14-5 with a 3.91 ERA. He started 32 games and had 151 strikeouts. If you believe Clarke Schmidt is ready to be part of the rotation, Taillon’s spot seems to the one. With Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes Jr, Luis Severino (club option will be picked up), and Frankie Montas locked in for next year, Schmidt will battle Domingo German for the vacancy unless the Yankees pursue another starter for the rotation. It seems unlikely Taillon will be the choice.

I enjoyed Matt Carpenter’s time with the Yankees, and it is unfortunate the broken foot ended his magical run with the team. I would not bring him back in 2023. There are younger, better options. The Yankees caught lightening in a bottle with Carpenter and I am not sure he can replicate that success next season. His final years in St Louis ended on a down note (in terms of production). The odds are he plays closer to the 2020/2021 version of himself than the magical 2022 run. The Yankees need to get younger, and Carpenter’s spot is one that can be “youth-anized” (I know, that is not a word). So, thanks for the memories, Matty Moustache. Next.

The Yankees will not re-sign Miguel Castro, Marwin Gonzalez, or Aroldis Chapman. Castro is replaceable. If the Yankees re-sign him, meh, if he leaves, meh. Marwin is a versatile player, but Oswaldo Cabrera proved he is the most valuable super utility in both the infield and outfield positions despite his relative inexperience with the latter. I think he will continue to work this off-season and next Spring to become even better. So, Oswaldo makes Marwin irrelevant. Aroldis Chapman. What a disgraceful end for the former elite closer. There was absolutely no way the Yankees were going to re-sign him BEFORE he went AWOL on the team prior to the playoffs. Goodbye, good riddance.

The players who must go. Who goes first? I do not necessarily think the Yankees should trade him, but it is time for the Isiah Kiner-Falefa experiment at shortstop to end. Whether the Yankees give the job to Oswald Peraza (or Anthony Volpe sometime later next season), or in a move that would shock all of us…sign one from the latest group of elite free agent shortstops, IKF cannot be the Yankees’ starting shortstop in 2023. IKF should join Cabrera as the strength of the bench. I would love to see the Yankees sign Trea Turner, who apparently has expressed a desire to return to the East Coast. It would really suck to see the Baltimore Orioles, and not the Yankees, pony up for the extremely talented shortstop. It just does not seem probable that Hal Steinbrenner would open his wallet for what it will take to sign Turner if he is aggressively trying to bring back Aaron Judge. Or even if he was not. Would Michael Conforto in right field and Trea Turner at shortstop make the Yankees a better team than Aaron Judge in right field and a continued stopgap at short? It is a fair question, but I do not think the Yankees will go in that direction. Regardless, a new shortstop for 2023 is a must.

Trade Aaron Hicks. I am so over having Hicks on the team, and I am ready for his time to end. With Harrison Bader clearly locked in as the team’s center fielder, there is no need for Hicks and his unreliability. Not interested in moving him to left field or allowing him to remain as the fourth (or fifth) outfielder.

If the Yankees’ Front Office can find a way to unload Josh Donaldson’s contract, it will utterly amaze me. It seems more probable JD will open the 2023 as the team’s starting third baseman. The best-case scenario is finding a trade partner without having to give up a top prospect and make DJ LeMahieu the starter. Of course, if the Yankees trade Gleyber Torres as some speculate, LeMahieu would be needed at second base, at least until Anthony Volpe is ready to ascend to the throne (if he moves from short to second as many expect). Regardless, as with Hicks, I am so over Donaldson. I did not like the guy before he was a Yankee, and his time as a Yankee has not changed the perception. A great defender, the decline of his offensive production is too much of a burden for a team that struggled to hit a few weeks ago. I am not expecting a resurgence in 2023. Unfortunately, this may be an albatross until the Yankees decide it is time to cut him. If Anthony Volpe proves he is ready for the Major Leagues sometime next season, it would certainly increase the potential for the Yankees to cut bait with Donaldson. I am hoping for an earlier departure. We will see.

Jose Trevino should be a Yankee in 2023 but the same cannot be said for his catching partner, Kyle Higashioka. Does Ben Rortvedt step up? It is possible. Do the Yankees make a trade for a strong catcher like Sean Murphy? Less likely, but possible. The Willson Contreras rumors have been around forever and a day. Hey, Gary Sanchez is a free agent. Okay, I will pass on that one. Regardless, I think the Yankees will find a better partner than Higgy for Trevi.

I think most fans want the Yankees to trade Gleyber Torres. I guess I am indifferent. I continue to hope he works harder to become a better player, to find the consistency, to play harder and smarter, and avoid the mental lapses. Maybe I am too optimistic. Volpe’s development, of course, is the momentum for possible change. I would embrace Gleyber’s return in 2023, but I am not going to lose any sleep if he is traded away. If he could help, as part of a larger package, to bring in talented pitching, I am all for it. Getting rid of Hicks and Donaldson are greater priorities than eliminating Gleyber.

Final notes…

I expect the Yankees to announce the signing of General Manager Brian Cashman to a new deal, perhaps as soon as next week during an off day for the World Series. I totally understand those who believe that Cashman’s time must end. @realBoShek wrote a very compelling argument for why Cashman’s time must end on the Old SchoolYanks blog site. Beautifully written and a great perspective for why change makes sense. Joel Sherman wrote a strong piece, behind the pay wall at The New York Post, for why keeping Cashman makes the most sense. I find myself agreeing, in parts, with both points of view.

I guess my hill to die on is the Yankees should promote Cashman to President of Baseball Operations, shifting President Randy Levine to the business side of the house (or put him out for the River Ave trash pickup), and hire a new general manager to bring a new, fresh voice and decision-maker into the organization. I am not in favor of promoting one of the current assistant GMs to the role. My understanding is Jean Afterman is comfortable in her present role and enjoys works remotely from the wine region of Sonoma/Napa Valley, California. Michael Fishman is not the right choice, and a convincing argument can be made that the Yankees need a new nerd to head the Analytics Department. Bring in a younger, analytics-driven executive who equally understands the game of baseball. Easier said than done, but the Yankees have the resources to find the right talent to bring into the room.

I have never been one for offseason plans, so I will refer you to two great presentations I read this week. One of The Greedy Pinstripes’ founders, Bryan Van Dusen (@Bryan_TGP on Twitter) wrote his annual, and very enthusiastic, Offseason Plan and he presents an extraordinarily persuasive case for how to improve the 2023 Yankees. Kudos to Bryan for his excellent work. I always envision him locked away in some room with no windows with all these ideas furiously bouncing off the walls while he aggressively and passionately pens his well-informed thoughts and ideas about how the team can be better. The other terrific piece is written by someone I am not familiar with…at least not until now, Seth Warner (@Seth_W19 on Twitter). His 2023 New York Yankees Mock Offseason is tremendous and a must-read for any Yankees fan. Nice work, guys!

I wish the 2022 Yankees, in the ALCS, would have shown the heart of the Philadelphia Phillies who last night overcame a 5-0 deficit against the Houston Astros to take Game 1 of the World Series, 6-5 in 10 innings. The Phillies proved the Astros are not invincible…contrary to how the Yankees treated them. Nice to see David Robertson close out the win. Revenge for the 2017 Yankees against the cheaters.

As always, Go Yankees! 

Thursday, October 27, 2022

Undies' 2022/2023 Offseason Plan

It's time for my annual "What I want to happen but won't and probably shouldn't" offseason plan. While the chances of these things happening may be slim to none, or otherwise obvious, it still helps me know where the team is at and where they need to improve.


To get this thing started I thought I’d address a few free agents, whose names have been mentioned as good fits for the New York Yankees…


I thought about Nolan Arenado for next year's squad, but I see no way the Cardinals let him get away (assuming he opts out, of course). St. Louis has about $30 million coming off the books next season and actually had a Luxury Tax payroll in 2022 about $25 million lower than in 2021. Furthermore, from what I've read, Arenado and the Cardinals like one another. So while I could look at ways to fit what could be a $30 million salary into things for next season, I really don't see the point of it.


I also took a look at Trea Turner, but I just didn't like the idea of handing a soon-to-be 30-year-old a ten-year contract. I wouldn't really be that upset if the Yankees signed him, as he'd be a pleasure to watch in pinstripes for most of that contract, but the length and AAV (I've read as high as $34 million) have me thinking twice.


And then there's Carlos Correa. I've been reading that he could be looking at an 8-year deal, which would mean he's on the team through his age-35 season, and that's more palatable than Turner. Yet, the Yankees could've signed a shortstop to a big contract last year and didn't, and they still have Peraza and Volpe around and looking good, which seemed to be the reason they passed on all those shortstops in the first place. It was hard enough writing this paragraph knowing I'd likely be disappointed, so to try and maintain some sanity I can't put Correa in my active roster for 2023 even though I'd like to. 


Now, without any adieu whatsoever, here we go (and I refuse to use the overused Joker gif)... 



The Yankees have a handful of guys that are now free agents, so I'm going to go over the ones I don't want returning...


Aroldis Chapman

Do I really need to explain this one? The only possible reason I could see the Yankees wanting to bring him back would be if they were desperate in the bullpen, but especially with Mike King returning they're not. 


Zack Britton

If he'd returned hot, which wasn't really expected, things would be different. But with the bullpen already shaping up I see no reason to bring Zack back. 


Jameson Taillon

When I started thinking about the offseason the idea of bringing back Taillon came to mind. However, with Cole, Cortes, Montas, and Severino (more on him later), along with other starting possibilities, I'm saying "bye".


Chad Green

I like the guy, and I would have thought hard about bringing him back but there's that whole Tommy John Surgery thing. 


Miguel Castro

I wouldn't be distraught if he were brought back, but I don't see a spot for him. Besides, he walks too many batters for my taste. I hate it when relievers walk batters.


Marwin Gonzalez

Nope. Years ago I wanted the Yankees to sign Marwin, but that feeling is long gone. His best trait is his defensive versatility, but that's not enough for me to want to see him back in pinstripes. 



So let's see where the Yankees should start spending some money...


Aaron Judge - 8 years $304 million


First of all, Aaron was bad this postseason. I don't need to post the stats, as seeing the Yankees eliminated by the Astros again hurt enough. But I just can't imagine not re-signing this guy. Yes, the end of that contract is going to hurt. Yes, Judge hasn't done well in the postseason in the last three years. But, to be honest, I don't see anyone that's a free agent or would be available in a trade, that I think makes a good replacement (and I mean in the lineup, not necessarily in right field). 


I'm a bit concerned about signing anybody for that much money into their late 30s, but Aaron is an entirely different monster. He's probably not going to bat above .300 every season, but based on the last couple of years I think it's safe to say his batting average is going to land between .285 and .300 regularly. And it's not like this is the first season he's led the league in walks, which will also help him maintain an OBP that pushes .400 year in and year out. Now, I don't expect Judge to hit 62 home runs a year, helping lead to a slugging percentage around .686 each year, but 50+ bombs a year is hardly a pipe dream. Put that all together and you have a guy that could at least get some MVP votes every season.


Then you have his defense, which is not only pretty darn good in right field, but good enough to take over centerfield for a big chunk of the season.


Oh, and have I mentioned how loved he is in New York?


I don't see how you can let Aaron Judge ever wear anything but a Yankees uniform.


Anthony Rizzo - 2 years $34 million


Chances are he opts out, but I think the Yankees need to get this guy back in pinstripes.


I can't count how many times Anthony has bailed out his infielders thanks to errant throws, not to mention how many base hits he took away on balls hit in his direction. Can you imagine if we still had Luke Voit or another average-to-poor defender at first base? I shudder at the thought, and that alone makes me want him back.


What makes him more attractive are those 32 home runs he hit from the left side. The Yankees have done a good job at taking advantage of the 81 games they play at Yankee Stadium, and a guy like Rizzo is a very good way to keep that up.


Finally, the guy's been a Yankee for a year and a half, yet teammates look up to and can learn from him. Outside of Aaron Judge, he may be the leader of that clubhouse.


Andrew Benintendi - 3 years $54 million (possible option for a 4th year)


The one part of the Yankees lineup that's bothered me is the fact they don't have a good option to bat lead-off. While I understood batting Judge at the #1 spot in order to guarantee that their best hitter got the most at-bats every game, we missed out on a lot of runs as 41 of Aaron's home runs and 15 of his doubles came with the bases empty. So it's imperative that we try to make sure someone is on base when Judge comes to bat, and that's where Benintendi comes in.


Last season in Kansas City Andrew was hitting .304 with an on-base percentage of .373. Mind you, both of those numbers were well above his norms (.279 and .351), but I believe Benny should be our lead-off hitter on Opening Day 2023. 


Other than being a good contact hitter (81.5% contact percentage last season, 33rd in MLB out of 130 batters), which is something the Yankees could really use (they were 21st in MLB in Contact %), Benintendi provides good left field defense that would play next to Bader's elite glove in center.


Exercise club option on Luis Severino for $15 million


In terms of ERA+ Luis was the second-best starter on the team last year (Cortes was #1), and the only thing that kept his Fangraphs Dollar Value from being well above that $15 million number was being limited to only 102 innings in 19 starts. If Sevy is let loose next season or gets close to the 190+ innings he threw in both 2017 and 2018 (before the injury bug bit him really hard), he'll be worth a heck of a lot more than $15 million, making his option a no-brainer to pick up.



We all know the Yankees need to make some big changes, and so far I haven't shown you guys anything. I've actually advocated for bringing back three guys that were on last year's team. So let's do some house cleaning...


1. Gleyber Torres, Josh Donaldson, Trystan Vrieling, & $12.5 million to Washington for Hunter Harvey & Zach Brzykcy


The Nationals got the least production from their second and third basemen in the entire National League last season. The man that played the most at third base (Maikel Franco), as well as the man with the next most time there (Ehire Adrianza), are free agents. Their starting second baseman, Cesar Hernandez, is also a free agent. 


Washington's farm system is middle of the road which tells me it may be hard for them to pull off a trade to acquire a good third baseman, let alone two decent infielders. Their payroll is middle of the road as well, so they're unlikely to spend to fill both spots. So getting an elite defensive third baseman that has some upside in his bat, with only one year remaining on his contract, along with an arbitration-eligible second baseman that can hit 20+ home runs is likely quite an attractive package to GM Mike Rizzo.


Throw in some money to help pay Donaldson, as well as a solid prospect, and the Nationals should be happy with their return in a trade. 


Let me say that I don't hate Torres, nor do I necessarily want him gone, but he is another guy that offers little with the bat outside of the occasional homer. His whiff, strikeout, and walk rates are sub-par to bad. And with Cabrera, Peraza, and soon Volpe to go along with a returning (in my plan) Rizzo and LeMahieu, room has to be made in the infield. 


Hunter Harvey has a good fastball (97th percentile per Baseball Savant), and started throwing a splitter in 2021 that got better this past season, which hopefully is the reason his home run rate dropped so low (0.6 HR/9) so it wasn't just an anomaly. If he can continue making that splitter more effective then I can see him being a strong reliever, which could be big for helping keep our pitchers fresh for later in the season. The other pitcher the Yankees would get here, Zach Brzykcy, is a 23-year-old that made his AAA debut this past season. I think that was a bit of an aggressive move as Zach started the year throwing 21.2 innings in high-A ball, then 38 innings in AA, before tossing his last 1.2 innings of 2022 in AAA. He's a high strikeout pitcher (13.9 K/9 between all the levels), and if he can lower his walks a bit (4.3 BB/9) he could see MLB action as early as the upcoming season. 


I believe only having to pay Josh Donaldson $12.5 million makes him worth something, even if it's mainly for his defense (Fangraphs Dollar Value was $12.9 million). 


2. Kyle Higashioka to Arizona for Yu Min-Lin and Andy Yerzy


Boy, did Higgy fool us in Spring Training or what? With a good glove and what looked to be some power from his bat we possibly had a sure-fire starting catcher on our hands, but it didn't take long for that idea to fizzle away. With regular playing time, I could see his bat being okay, or at least not a total dead spot in the lineup, and his glove is still pretty nice and should garner some interest.


One of the teams interested should be the Diamondbacks, who were 11th in the National League and 25th overall in productivity from behind the plate. What makes them an ideal trade partner is that they have a very good farm system that's ranked in the top 5 of most lists. Of course, the Yankees can't expect anything eye-popping in return, but someone stuck out to me...


Yu-Min Lin, who was signed to a minor-league deal as a free agent last year, is only 19 years old and posted some impressive strikeout numbers in rookie and A-ball. Of course, yes... it was a ways away from Major League Baseball, but at his age, it's pretty cool that he can throw in the lower 90s while also having a slider, curveball, changeup, and splitter. 


There isn't anything impressive about Andy Yerzy, as he's a catcher/first baseman that was drafted in the second round of the 2016 draft. At one point he looked like a nice catching prospect for the D-Backs, but he struggled in 2019, skipped 2020, had an okay season in 2021, and wasn't anything special in AA this past season. His future may very well be at first base, as that's where he spent most of his time in 2022, so I don't expect Andy to be anything more than minor league filler.


3. Aaron Hicks, Lou Trivino, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, & $10 million ($3.33 million for each season left on Hicks' contract) to Los Angeles (AL) for Aaron Loup & David Fletcher


According to Fangraphs Hicks was worth $11.6m and IKF $10.7m, so there's value to a team beyond the salaries of those two. The downside is the two extra seasons Hicks is under contract after 2023, which is why I'm taking back one of their contracts with the same number of years remaining. 


Trivino did a great job for us, and I wouldn't be sad one bit if he returned to the Yankees next season, but outside of a good fastball that leads to a solid strikeout rate and whiff percentage he gets hit fairly hard. So I like the idea of using him to help unload Hicks and IKF. 


Aaron Hicks can help by doing more than playing LF regularly (Brandon Marsh is no longer in LA and Jo Adell is not good), if the Angels do trade Ohtani he could allow Mike Trout to rest his legs more often as the DH (Even if they don't trade Shohei soon, Trout could DH more after 2023). 


Kiner-Falefa could give LAA a utility infielder that isn't under contract beyond next season, or play him regularly at 2B over Luis Rengifo. 


Aaron Loup's strikeout rate went down while his walk rate went up a bit in 2022, possibly due to using his changeup more and his slider less (he has a better slider than changeup). I actually had Aaron on my radar last offseason, as he crushed it with the Mets in 2021. He will become the highest paid reliever for the Yankees next season, but about $8 million less than Chapman was in 2022. Plus, he gives our manager another left-handed option in the bullpen. 


Remember that contract with three years remaining that I'm taking back? That's David Fletcher. Fletcher has not done much since signing that deal with the Angels after his nice season in 2020. His glove isn't great, but good enough if he's needed at short or second. If he's ever needed for an extended period of time I fully expect the Yankees to look at other options, though. But at less than $6 million a year, it's cool. 



So there you go, my offseason plans. Will they all happen? No way. Will some happen? I'm sure of it. But I had a lot of fun putting this together, and I hope you had fun reading it. I want to note that the lineup I put together has only two guys that are expected to have a strikeout rate above 20% (Stanton and Judge). Meanwhile, the Opening Day lineup for 2022 had five guys in it with that high of a strikeout percentage (Stanton, Judge, Gallo, Hicks, and Donaldson) while another one didn't start on Opening Day but was a regular (Torres). 


I'm sure many of you are wondering what's up with Anthony Volpe. Well, Volpe only played 22 games for AAA Scranton and wasn't that impressive. Actually, he wasn't that great in AA, either. I'd like to see him get more development time in the minors, and I certainly don't want him spending time on the bench. So leave him in Scranton to start the 2023 season, and we can reevaluate things in June.


Basically, the roster I've come up with has a lot of addition by subtraction built into it. The fact of the matter is last year's team was really good at run prevention, and they could score as well, but the problem was inconsistency. I can't say for sure this team will be more consistent, so it was important to leave enough money for significant mid-season upgrades should they be necessary, and I've certainly done that. 


I also like this plan because the Yankees hold onto their top prospects. In fact, the only prospect I'm trading is #15 Trystan Vrieling, and in the Higashioka trade, we're getting back Arizona's #15 prospect (Yu-Min Lin) who has a higher ceiling. So I've probably IMPROVED the farm system. 


One final thing before showing my active roster... arbitration estimates are provided by MLB Trade Rumors. Miscellaneous salary information, except for Josh Donaldson and Aaron Hicks, is provided by Cot's Baseball Contracts.


LF Andrew Benintendi* ($18m)

RF Aaron Judge ($38m)

1B Anthony Rizzo* ($17)

DH Giancarlo Stanton ($25m)

3B DJ LeMahieu ($15m)

CF Harrison Bader ($5.2m)

2B Oswaldo Cabrera# ($.75m)

SS Oswald Peraza ($.75m)

C Jose Trevino ($2m-A1)


BE Ben Rortvedt* - C ($.75m)

BE David Fletcher - MI ($5.833m)

BE Estevan Florial* - OF ($.75m)

BE Ryan LaMarre - OF ($.75m)


SP1 Gerrit Cole ($36m)

SP2 Nestor Cortes* ($3.5m-A1)

SP3 Luis Severino ($15m)

SP4 Frankie Montas ($7.7m-A3)

SP5 Domingo German ($2.6-A2)


RP Jonathan Loaisiga ($2.1m-A2)

RP Clay Holmes ($2.9m-A2)

RP Wandy Peralta* ($3.1m-A4)

RP Ron Marinaccio ($.75m)

RP Mike King ($1.2m-A1)

RP Lucas Luetge* ($1.7m-A2)

RP Hunter Harvey ($1m-A1)

RP Aaron Loup* ($8.5m)


MISCELLANEOUS SALARY INFORMATION

Money from Miami for Giancarlo Stanton: -$3 million

Paid to Washington for Josh Donaldson: $12.5 million

Paid to Los Angeles (AL) for Aaron Hicks: $3.33 million

Player Benefits: $16.5 million

40-Man Players in Minors: $2.25 million

0-3 yr bonus pool: $1.667 million


TEAM PAYROLL

$248.83 million ($259.31 million in 2021)



Nope, I'm not going to go along with cheap-ass Hal. Sure, I'm not going to go nuts and put a plan out there that's totally outside of reality, but I'm not going to put my name on something that is half-assed, either. 


I'm not going to sign Andrew Benintendi. I like the guy for all the reasons I mentioned earlier in this article, but I'd much rather have Carlos Correa on this team. Carlos brings a very good batting average, good on-base percentage, and plenty of postseason experience... including 20 games played in the World Series. So I'm giving Correa an 8-year contract worth $240 million. Now that would bring the total years and money below what Seager got last offseason from Texas, so a 9th year may be necessary, and since that takes him only through his age 36 season I'm not against going there. 


I discussed Trea Turner and Nolan Arenado earlier, but there's one more big bat I should touch on here... Brandon Nimmo. 


Nimmo's batting line the last couple of years, very good defense, and ability to run well, make him very attractive. Not to mention his left-handed bat. But I just can't ignore that he will turn 30 in late March next year, missed quite a bit of time in 2019 with a bulging disc in his neck, and missed a total of about two months in 2021 with hand and hamstring issues. While his next contract may only take him as far as his age 35 season, I'll take Correa through his age 35 or 36 season instead. 


The real decision was deciding between Benintendi or Rizzo, as I don't see both of them fitting into the team payroll. I'm kidding, it wasn't a hard decision, as I'm not only a big fan of Rizzo but the guy has become so beloved in New York (by both fans and teammates) in such a short amount of time. The left-handed power and great defense, along with a shorter contract, also help. 


This also puts the Yankees in a tough, but very nice, position as they'll have three good to great middle infield youngsters in Cabrera (who can actually play anywhere, hence his position in the below lineup), Peraza, and Volpe. So they could turn one of them into that starter of the future.


3B DJ LeMahieu ($15m)

RF Aaron Judge ($38m)

SS Carlos Correa ($30m)

DH Giancarlo Stanton ($25m)

1B Anthony Rizzo* ($17m)

CF Harrison Bader ($5.2m)

LF Oswaldo Cabrera# ($.75m)

2B Oswald Peraza ($.75m)

C Jose Trevino ($2m-A1)


BE Ben Rortvedt* - C ($.75m)

BE David Fletcher - MI ($5.833m)

BE Estevan Florial* - OF ($.75m)

BE Ryan LaMarre - OF ($.75m)


SP1 Gerrit Cole ($36m)

SP2 Nestor Cortes* ($3.5m-A1)

SP3 Luis Severino ($15m)

SP4 Frankie Montas ($7.7m-A3)

SP5 Domingo German ($2.6-A2)


RP Jonathan Loaisiga ($2.1m-A2)

RP Clay Holmes ($2.9m-A2)

RP Wandy Peralta* ($3.1m-A4)

RP Ron Marinaccio ($.75m)

RP Mike King ($1.2m-A1)

RP Lucas Luetge* ($1.7m-A2)

RP Hunter Harvey ($1m-A1)

RP Aaron Loup* ($8.5m)


MISCELLANEOUS SALARY INFORMATION

Money from Miami for Giancarlo Stanton: -$3 million

Paid to Washington for Josh Donaldson: $12.5 million

Paid to Los Angeles (AL) for Aaron Hicks: $3.33 million

Player Benefits: $16.5 million

40-Man Players in Minors: $2.25 million

0-3 yr bonus pool: $1.667 million


TEAM PAYROLL

$261.08 million ($259.31 million in 2021)


Shut up, Hal, and just write the damn checks!

If Hal or anyone else has something to say about this then comment or hit me up on Twitter (@Bryan_TGP). Thanks for reading, and regardless of Hal, Cashman, or Boone's incompetence... GO YANKEES!

Saturday, October 22, 2022

The Rise of Champions...

 

Giancarlo Stanton & Aaron Judge (Photo Credit: John Minchillo/AP)

Can the Yankees overcome the challenges ahead?...

The ALCS continues today in New York with the Yankees searching for answers. The Houston Astros hold the game…and psychological…advantage over the Yankees, up two games to none. Manager Aaron Boone may not believe Game 3 is a “must-win” game, but it is. Even if the Yankees win two of three at Yankee Stadium, the Astros will return home for Game 6, a game away from a World Series berth, and into an environment the Yankees have not been able to conquer. If the Yankees can win all three at home, and take the advantage into Houston, it could be the accelerant for vanquishing the demons in Minute Maid Park.

Although it is never over until it is, I do not believe the Yankees can overcome a ‘three games to none’ disadvantage. These are not the 2004 Boston Red Sox. Thirty strikeouts in two games are a sign of excellent Astros pitching, poor Yankees hitting, or a combination of both. If the Yankees cannot hit, they cannot win.

I keep seeing fans plea for the firings of Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman. In the middle of the American League Championship Series? The time for any evaluations of leadership and coaching is after the season, not amid a heated playoff battle. I am not trying to defend Boone or Cashman, but now is not the time to call for their heads. Boone needs our support. Anything else is counterproductive. Yankee fans everywhere should be united in our support of the team.

Although I expect to see Isiah Kiner-Falefa as today’s starting shortstop, I personally would stay with Oswald Peraza and his superior glove. I wish Boone had played Peraza more in the waning days of the regular season to help build his confidence at the Major League level. The talent is there, he just needs to experience success to build the mental aspect of his game. Repeatedly, Peraza produced big hits in Triple A. No doubt his bat will reach that level in The Show, but it takes time. There may not be sufficient time in the remaining ALCS games, but his glove is championship-quality. In a series differentiated by so few runs (Astros have only scored three combined runs more than the Yankees in two games), every error weighs heavily. If there is no time for Peraza’s bat to come around, there is even less time or tolerance for IKF blunders in the field. Peraza’s bat has greater potential than IKF so there is always a chance he comes through in key situations.


Oswald Peraza (Photo Credit: Eric Gay/AP)

I was afraid that Matt Carpenter would have too much rust after his long layoff with the broken foot. He is 0-for-5 with 5 strikeouts, yet fans continue to call for his placement in the starting lineup based on his regular season success. I am doubtful he can recapture the Matty Moustache Magic, and he should not be starting. If he can get a few pinch hits, then reevaluate. Until then, he should be on the bench.

For all the great moves GM Brian Cashman has made, Josh Donaldson will forever be a major faux pas. His ability to play solid defense at third has been Donaldson’s only redeeming quality. He is an unlikeable guy that can no longer hit and is a major liability at the plate. Owed $21 million for next year, with an $8 million buyout in 2024, it will be a near impossibility for Cashman to offload his mistake without parting with other young valuable prospects to make it happen. I have said all season that Gary Sanchez was addition by subtraction, but the cost to take Donaldson in a trade was not worth it. The Yankees should have simply non-tendered Sanchez and sent him on his merry way. They would still have Gio Urshela, who is good defensively (albeit not as good as Donaldson). At the end of the season with the Twins, Urshela was continuing his reputation as a timely hitter…something the Yankees could certainly use. Minnesota, after watching Sanchez play in his walk year, reportedly have no plans to re-sign him. The Yankees should have similarly just walked away from him. I know the Yankees expected more from catcher Ben Rortvedt, but again, not worth the cost of taking on Donaldson’s contract. Cashman gambled that Donaldson was not washed up, and he lost. Win some, lose some. Not one of Cashman’s finer moves, but hopefully he will find a way to eliminate Donaldson from the roster in the upcoming offseason. Until then, we can only hope Donaldson finds a way to be effective. Dude, time is not for your friend. A contribution to a win today would be much appreciated.


Josh Donaldson (Photo Credit: Getty Images)

I was listening to The Michael Kay Show on Friday and a fan suggested the Yankees play IKF at third base over Donaldson (admittedly, something I have considered), but Michael tore the caller apart. I get Michael’s position. Donaldson is a former MVP and right or wrong, the Yankees have entrusted third base to him this year. Aaron Boone continues to defend the player, and they believe he has value. IKF is not a starter, he is a guy who should be playing an infield super-utility role. The truth is the Yankees do not have a third base option better than Donaldson. That would have only been possible had DJ LeMahieu been healthy and on the active ALCS roster.

If the Yankees lose the ALCS, ultimately the biggest factor will be the injuries. The team would have looked so much better with Andrew Benintendi in left field, DJ LeMahieu roving around the infield, Michael King representing the best stopper the Yankees have had in years, and a bullpen with the likes of Ron Marinaccio, Scott Effross, and Zack Britton. Chad Green seems like such a long-ago memory, but if not for his injury and Tommy John surgery, he could have helped even if his production had been trending in the wrong direction over the last few seasons. But in the end, the sole cause for loss cannot be placed on the injuries. Those are the times for others to stand up. Houston has deftly filled the void of losing one of their better outfielders, Michael Brantley. This is not about the need for Aaron Boone to manage better, it is more about the players simply playing better.

Not giving up hope. If the Yankees win today, they can win tomorrow. One game at a time. As Yogi Berra says, “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”

The Texas Rangers failed with their attempt to spend a half-billion dollars in shore up their middle infield in 2022 with the free agent signings of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Credit to them for the stunning announcement yesterday that they have hired proven World Series manager Bruce Bochy to a three-year contract. I thought San Diego’s acquisition of Bob Melvin as their manager last offseason was the best managerial move, and Bochy stands as this offseason’s best even if the offseason has not even started yet. A good hire by the Rangers.


Bruce Bochy (Photo Credit: Jeff Chiu/AP)

A little strange to see a former Dodgers great managed by a Giants great but no doubt Seager is feeling a sense of excitement about his team’s future. I wonder if this will be the offseason that Dallas native Clayton Kershaw finally decides to come home to play. I have always felt he should be a Dodger to the end, but Kersh’s powerful sense of family and his North Texas home set the stage for his triumphant Lone Star State return.


Clayton Kershaw (Photo Credit: Harry How/Getty Images)

If the Rangers sign Kershaw and trade for Arizona’s Madison Bumgarner (who has Bochy’s trust), it would be truly wild to see those guys on the same team.

The Braves-less and Dodgers-less NLCS is now advantage Philadelphia. After last night’s 4-2 win over the San Diego Padres, the Phillies are up two games to one. They play Game 4 tonight in Citizens Bank Park with a chance to take a commanding series lead. Although I have never been a fan of the Phillies, I am enjoying the success of Manager Rob Thomson. After years in the Yankees organization, Thomson should have been given greater consideration when Joe Girardi was not rehired. The Yankees, as we know, chose Aaron Boone since, in Cashman’s words at the time, he checked all the boxes. I think Thomson has shown he is more than just checked boxes. Unlike the Yankees, the Phillies made the right call to replace Girardi with Thomson. It helps to have a superstar like Bryce Harper on your team, but I am pulling for the Phillies to win the NLCS and advance to the World Series. If they play the Astros, I will be pulling for Philadelphia to capture its first World Series championship since 2008.

If Joe Girardi wants to manage another team, the Phillies’ success after he was fired cannot be good for one’s resume.

The Toronto Blue Jays removed the “interim” tag from Manager John Schneider’s title with a new three-year contract. Good for him. He did help the Blue Jays after the firing of former Manager Charlie Montoyo even if they faltered at the end (the memories of Vladdy Jr’s failed ‘This is our house!’ mantra still fresh on my mind). The Blue Jays have a strong, young core, and they will enter the 2023 season as a strong contender. Schneider joins Rob Thomson and Phil Nevin as interim managers who successfully auditioned for permanent roles with their respective teams. I think Nevin’s choice had more to do with the potential sale of the Los Angeles Angels than the Angels’ long-term desire to have Nevin lead them, but he will be the field general next season for the Halos.

Former Yankees and current Astros coach Joe Espada continues to interview for managerial openings. I do not know if it is true, but it feels like he has interviewed for more managerial jobs than anyone over the last several years. He deserves the opportunity. I saw that he had interviewed for the job with the Chicago White Sox, who are also reportedly considering former Manager Ozzie Guillen to replace the retired Tony LaRussa. I think the White Sox would be wise to choose Espada over Guillen. Espada has also talked with GM Kim Ng and the Miami Marlins, another good fit. I really hope he lands either the Chicago or Miami job. It seems like the White Sox roster has the greater potential. Either way, it is his time to lead.

As always, Go Yankees!