Monday, March 31, 2014

Predictions Are Fun

By now I'm betting that you've read numerous predictions about how things will shake out this season. Some of you are probably a little upset that many have picked the Yankees to barely make the postseason, or miss out on it entirely. Well I wanted to write and make you all feel better.

A couple of things before I get into this...

  1. I am not saying predictions are dumb. They can not only be fun to do, but also help take a look at how other teams in the league look going into the season. That's the main reason I read them.
  2. In no way do I mean to disparage anybody that didn't get a prediction right. We have no way to know if a key player will get injured, a player who should be great end up flopping, or a breakout star emerges. Like the NCAA tournament, some will predict it well while others (like myself) will look like fools. Predictions are more about the ride than the destination.
I went to Dayton, so clearly I loved what they did this season. But not only did they knock out my beloved Ohio State Buckeyes, they also knocked out my long-time love Syracuse, and wreaked havoc on my bracket.

With that said I thought I'd share the 2013 predictions from Eric Karabell.

In case you don't know Eric Karabell, he works for ESPN on TV, radio, podcasts, blogs, and their magazine. If you play fantasy sports, then chances are you've not only heard of him but have taken his advice. And for good reason.

I chose Karabell because of how much respect I have for his insight into the game of baseball. He's as level-headed as any "expert" I've come across, and his straight forward approach really appeals to me. Eric doesn't have to raise his voice to show his excitement for a player or team like others, he just tells it like it is. 

With that said, here are his predictions of how the 2013 Major League Baseball season would end...

American League
East champ: Rays
Central champ: Tigers
West champ: Angels
Wild cards: Yankees, Rangers
Champion: Rays

National League
East champ: Nationals
Central champ: Cardinals
West champ: Giants
Wild cards: Reds, Braves
Champion: Nationals

Rays over Nationals

Here is how the 2013 season actually ended...

American League
East champ: Red Sox
Central champ: Tigers
West champ: Athletics
Wild cards: Rays, Indians
Champion: Red Sox

National League
East champ: Braves
Central champ: Cardinals
West champ: Dodgers
Wild cards: Reds, Pirates
Champion: Cardinals

Red Sox over Cardinals

This "expert" actually had the eventual World Series champion Boston Red Sox (and that really hurts to say/type) missing the postseason. One of the teams Karabell predicted to get into the World Series didn't even get into the postseason. And lastly, Eric only got two of the five American League, and two of the five National League, postseason teams right. 

Again, I don't mean to say Eric Karabell is a fool that doesn't know what he's talking about. Mr. Karabell is an incredibly valuable analyst. I'm just trying to point out that even the best minds surrounding the game have a very hard time predicting what will happen in any given season. 

So don't worry about those that say injuries will catch up to guys like Jacoby Ellsbury, or key players like CC Sabathia will continue to falter, or age will finally make guys like Carlos Beltran fall from grace. Take those predictions for what they are... fun, and a way for you to learn about your team and the league in general.

Most of all, enjoy Opening Day and GO YANKEES!

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