The Importance of the Houston Astros Loss of Draft Picks

Imagine AJ Hinch having to make this walk...

I want to preface this post by saying, in all honesty, that no matter what the punishment was for the Houston Astros, many, including myself, were just not going to be happy. Anything short of stripping them of the 2017 World Series Championship, which is not realistic or logistically feasible, and parading all the players down the street a la Game of Thrones with Cersei’s walk of shame (Season 5, Episode 10) was simply not going to be good enough. That’s fandom in a nutshell. We’re all fanatical about our team and we are all equally as fanatical when we feel like our team got screwed over and/or cheated. Yankees fans are rightly upset about the whole situation, and the subsequent punishments set down by the league after the fact didn’t help matters much in my opinion.

Admittedly, when the announcement came down, I put out a tweet stating that I felt like the punishment was pretty light. Truth be told, I still kind of do think the punishment was a little on the lighter side, but once I saw a Tweet from my very good friend, and the co-owner and founder of the blog, Bryan Van Dusen, I started looking at things another way. Could the loss of their first and second round draft picks for the 2020 and 2021 MLB First Year Players Draft have much more of an impact on the team than I am giving the league credit for? Maybe.

What about Justin Verlander? The got him after dealing 1st rounder Daz Cameron (and three others). Zack Greinke was acquired using two 1st rounders and a 2nd rounder.

— Undies (@Bryan_TGP) January 13, 2020

Now before we deep dive into this too much I will admit that many of these first round and second round picks that I am about to talk about came early on in the draft and came as a result of the Astros tanking for many, many years. These subsequent draft picks that the Astros are about to lose will likely come towards the later half of both drafts, Houston will lose the 30^th overall pick and the 62^nd overall pick in 2020, but that doesn’t make them any less important.

The Astros current core and roster was built via the draft. Star players like Carlos Correa (1^st overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft), Alex Bregman (2^nd overall pick in the 2015 MLB Draft), George Springer (11^th overall pick in the 2011 MLB Draft), Kyle Tucker (5^th overall pick in the 2015 MLB Draft), and Lance McCullers Jr. (41^st pick overall in 2012) make up just a few pieces of the core that Houston was able to draft, develop, and bring up to the Major Leagues with varying degrees of success. It is also worth mentioning, while not part of the core and not a star player as of the time of this writing, that Blake Taylor will likely win a spot in the Astros bullpen to start the 2020 season. Taylor was drafted in the 2^nd round of the 2013 MLB Draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates and was acquired by the Astros from the New York Mets, along with Kenedy Corona, for outfielder Jake Marisnick this winter. Taking away even one of these guys probably changes the dynamic of the team but imagine if potentially four of them got taken away. That would just be soul crushing to the team, in my opinion, and that could very well be happening in some capacity to the future of the Houston Astros with these punishments handed down from the league yesterday.

"I take back my congratulations post, because you're just a little cheater!"

My one gripe about the punishment, and my main reason for thinking the punishment was a little light, was that the Astros were not hit whatsoever on the international market. Some of my followers on Twitter quickly rebuffed this, stating that the Astros were not major players on the IFA market, but after researching a little I have to vehemently disagree. It only takes one player signing with the Astros off the IFA market to change the minds of the many, and the simple fact that the Astros plucked All-Star and 2017 MVP* Jose Altuve out of Maracay, Venezuela as a 16-year old in 2007 could potentially change a lot of minds in the market. On top of that, albeit in smaller roles, the additions of Yuli Gurriel (defected from Cuba in 2016), Yordan Alvarez (defected from Cuba in 2016 and signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers), Aledmys Diaz (defected from Cuba in 2012 and signed with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2014), Jose Urquidy who broke out during the 2019 postseason (signed out of Mazatlan, Mexico), and a pair of IFA-acquired arms in Framber Valdez and Francis Martes that may be vying for the 5^th starter spot in spring training 2020, may also go a long way to putting Houston as a desirable destination for potential future international free agents. How many kids growing up in Venezuela want to be Jose Altuve right now? I bet that number is staggering, so to completely disregard the IFA market in the punishment is completely irresponsible, in my opinion.

Yes, I realize that Gurriel and Alvarez were signed outside of the International market and would not have affected their IFA spending budget, but my overall point was to show that the Astros could, and now are, more attractive than ever on the international market. Oh, and by the way if you want to continue even deeper down this rabbit hole, the Astros traded RHP Josh Fields to the Dodgers for Alvarez. Fields bounced around a few times throughout his MiLB career, but that career started after the Seattle Mariners selected him 20^th overall in the first round of the 2008 MLB Draft. Another first round pick that never amounted to anything at the big-league level, but ultimately shaped the way the Houston Astros are currently constructed through the Draft.

"Let's bang one out and get that dub!"

To take this whole thing one step further, you have to mention the fact that the Astros best pitcher right now is the ageless Justin Verlander. Verlander was the 2^nd overall pick of the Detroit Tigers way back in the 2004 MLB Draft, and it took RHP Franklin Perez (Astros #3 prospect at the time who was acquired on the IFA market out of Valencia, Venezuela), OF Daz Cameron (Astros #9 prospect at the time who was drafted in the first round of the 2015 MLB Draft), and C Jake Rogers (Astros #11 prospect at the time and former 3^rd round pick from 2016) to acquire him back in 2017. So, in order for the Astros to acquire the pitcher that put them over the top during the 2017 postseason (and a former first round pick) it took them sending three of their top 11 best prospects, one of them being a former first round pick and the other being an IFA signing). You also have to remember that the Astros didn’t pay for the production that they received from Verlander; he was struggling mightily in Detroit before seemingly reinventing himself in Houston. Imagine if he had the same production in Detroit before the trade that he had while with the Astros, it may have taken three or four former first round picks to acquire him.

The Astros were not done there and were seemingly not content with their 2017 World Series Championship*. After the 2017 season the Astros acquired another former first round pick in Gerrit Cole (drafted 28^th overall by the New York Yankees in 2008, and then again first overall to the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2011) from the Pittsburgh Pirates. What did it cost Houston to acquire the talented right-hander from Pittsburgh before the 2018 season? Joe Musgrove (first round pick of the Toronto Blue Jays in 2011), Michael Feliz (IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic), Colin Moran (first round pick 6^th overall of the Miami Marlins in 2013), and Jason Martin (8^th round pick of the Astros in 2013). To acquire yet another former first round pick, and another piece that the team thought would put them ahead of the pack in the American League, it cost the Astros two more first round picks, an IFA signing, and a “lottery ticket” in Martin.

"Bang, because Yankees fans were making fun of me!"

But the Astros were not done there either. In their never-ending effort to stay on top of the competition in the American League, Jeff Luhnow and company acquired former Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zack Greinke at the trade deadline during the 2019 season. Greinke, a former first round pick (6^th overall) of the Kansas City Royals in 2002, was acquired from Arizona for SP Corbin Martin (2^nd round pick of the Astros in the 2017 MLB Draft), SP J.B. Bukauskas (1^st round pick, 15^th overall, by Houston in 2017), 1B Seth Beer (1^st round pick, 28^th overall, by Houston in 2018), and UTIL Josh Rojas. It is worth mentioning that while the Diamondbacks were willing to eat $24 million of the remaining dollars on Greinke’s contract, Houston is still on the hook for $53 million including his salary for the 2020 season. Did the money factor into the prospects haul for the Diamondbacks? You would have to think so, but even then, it still took two former first round picks, a second-round pick, and another lottery ticket in Rojas.

The Astros are clearly not against trading top prospects and former first and second round picks for that key piece they need at the big league level, which may mean that some of these Top 30 prospects (Fangraphs) may also be in the market for new real estate before July 31, 2020. Here is a look at the Astros Top 30 prospects and a quick look at how they got here.

      1.       Forrest Whitley – 1^st round pick 17^th overall 2016
2.       Jose Urquidy – IFA signing out of Mexico
3.       Abraham Toro – 5^th round pick in 2016
4.       Freudis Nova – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
5.       Bryan Abreu – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
6.       Cristian Javier – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
7.       Brandon Bielak - 11^th round pick in 2017
8.       Korey Lee – 1^st round pick 32^nd overall in 2019
9.       Hunter Brown – 5^th round pick in 2019
10.   Jairo Solis – IFA signing out of Venezuela
11.   Jeremy Pena – 3^rd round pick in 2018
12.   Jose Alberto Rivera – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
13.   Enoli Paredes – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
14.   Tyler Ivey – 3^rd round pick in 2017
15.   Angel Macuare – IFA signing out of Venezuela
16.   Jordan Brewer – 3^rd round pick in 2019
17.   Colin Barber – 4^th round pick in 2019
18.   Grae Kessinger – 2^nd round pick in 2019
19.   Luis Garcia – IFA signing out of Venezuela
20.   Luis Santana – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
21.   Jojanse Torres – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
22.   Carlos Sanabria – IFA signing out of Venezuela
23.   Cionel Perez – Defected from Cuba, signed as IFA in 2016
24.   Ronnie Dawson – 2^nd round pick in 2016
25.   Dauri Lorenzo – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
26.   Manny Ramirez – IFA signing out of the Dominican Republic
27.   Rogelio Armenteros – Defected from Cuba, signed as IFA in 2014
28.   Nivaldo Rodriguez – IFA signing out of Venezuela
29.   Garrett Stubbs – 8^th round pick in 2015
30.   Chas McCormick – 21^st round pick in 2017

The present makeup and construction of the Astros were largely built through the MLB First Year Players Draft, and it looks like the future of the organization (either through the system or via trade) could be largely made up through the Draft as well.

"Got out just in time, boys!"

So, in closing, are the loss of their first and second round draft picks for the 2020 and 2021 MLB Drafts important? Yes, absolutely. Would it have hurt Houston even more to lose some of their IFA money and spending capabilities? Also, absolutely, but you know what hurts the most? Well, besides when the Astros miss the playoffs entirely in 2020 and have to watch the Yankees finally bring that World Championship trophy home, is that the team had to watch their manager get fired, their GM (and probably the best GM in all of baseball) get fired, AND they had to watch arguably their best pitcher head to arguably their biggest rival via free agency. Unfortunately, though, the Astros WILL keep the compensation pick that they received, 72^nd overall, from the Yankees signing of Cole. How sweet would it have been if they had lost that pick too?  

Now we wait on the punishment for the Boston Red Sox, and more importantly Alex Cora. More to come…

Help Wanted: For Winning Road Game in Houston...

Credit:  AP - Matt Slocum

2017 World Series

Astros 5, Dodgers 3...
Astros lead the Series, 2 games to 1

Well, that didn't go so well...  

The Dodgers have realized what the Yankees already knew...it's hard to score runs against the Astros at Minute Maid Park.  It didn't help when Yu Darvish failed to make it out of the second inning (the shortest start in his career) as the Astros used their bats to send Darvish to an early shower.  Credit their gloves too for some phenomenal plays to prevent potential Dodger uprisings.

Before I get into the game, I want to say that Yuli Gurriel sucks.  His racially offensive gesture toward Darvish was unacceptable, regardless of the reasons or intent.  Darvish was forgiving, but I think Gurriel should be punished.  After the game, Darvish said, "I saw it but, for me, it personally doesn't bother me.  But I am sure the Astros have Asian fans and there are a lot of Asian people all over the world and to those people, from a humanistic perspective and as a baseball organization, I thought the Astros image might suffer as a result."  MLB Commissioner is expected to meet with Gurriel today and hopefully MLB takes proper action for Gurriel's unacceptable behavior.  Gurriel apologized but of course that's just saying he is sorry for getting caught.  I doubt Gurriel loses any playing time in the World Series, but as Darvish added, "As citizens of the world, if we can learn from this and take a step forward, I think this can be a good thing."

As for the game, Darvish, unfortunately, looked as uncomfortable as Luis Severino did in the AL Wild Card Game against the Minnesota Twins.  The Astros made some early noise in the bottom of the first inning.  George Springer led off for the Astros with a double to the right center field wall.  He advanced as far as third before Darvish got out of the inning, but it already felt like the Dodgers were on the ropes.

Credit:  AP - David J Phillip

There was no doubt about it in the bottom of the 2nd.  Yuli Gurriel led off with a home run to left.  As Joe Buck of FOX said, "That is smoked!".  He was followed by Josh Reddick, who doubled down the line in left. Darvish lost Evan Gattis on a full count and walked him. It brought Dodgers manager Dave Roberts out to the mound for a "staff meeting" but it didn't help. Marwin Gonzalez hit a ball to deep left center off the wall for a single, with Reddick racing around to score.  Gattis moved to second. Brian McCann's single to right center scored Gattis while Gonzalez took third.  After George Springer lined out to second for the first out, Alex Bregman lofted a fly to center to score Gonzalez on the sacrifice.  The Astros were up, 4-0.  Jose Altuve doubled to left center, also off the wall, with the slow-footed McCann moving to third. Roberts had seen enough and mercifully pulled Darvish.  Kenta Maeda entered the game and retired Carlos Correa on a fly out to right to end the inning.

The Dodgers were able to pick up a run against Astros starter Lance McCullers, Jr in the top of the 3rd inning.  Thanks to three successive walks, the Dodgers had the bases loaded and no outs for Corey Seager.  Sadly, Seager hit a grounder to first that the Astros turned for a double play (Gurriel throw to second and back to McCullers covering first for the out).  But the runner on third, Joc Pederson, scored on the play with the runner on second, Kike Hernandez, moving to third.  Justin Turner grounded out to short to end the inning.  The Dodgers may have scored a run but it was a huge missed opportunity.  The inning looked more like the team that was 1-16 at one point in the season and not the one that was 52-9 over an earlier stretch.

Credit:  AP - David J Phillip

Credit Maeda for keeping the Dodgers in the game.  I thought he did a wonderful job in relief of Darvish.  He held the Astros scoreless for 2 2/3 innings and retired the only batter he faced in the top of the 5th.  

Credit:  AP - Matt Slocum

The Dodgers made a pitching change to bring in former Pirates closer Tony Watson.  Watson got Yuli Gurriel to ground out to short for the second out, but then Josh Reddick singled up the middle to center field.  Evan Gattis hit a pitch back to Watson on the left side but Watson's throwing error, a ball in the dirt that sailed past first baseman Cody Bellinger, allowed Reddick to score his second run of the game while Gattis took second.  Watson was able to strike out Marwin Gonzalez but the Astros had increased their lead to 5-1.

Credit:  AP - David J Phillip

The Dodgers had something going against McCullers in the top of the 6th.  Corey Seager led off with a walk and he moved to third when Justin Turner doubled to the left field corner.  McCullers struck out Cody Bellinger, but it was the end of his day.  Astros manager A.J. Hinch brought in Brad Peacock to face Yasiel Puig.  Puig grounded out, a chopper to second, but Seager scored with Turner moving to third on the play.  With former Phillies great Chase Utley batting (pinch-hitting for Logan Forsythe), a wild pitch from Peacock that hit the dirt and went through Brian McCann's legs allowed Turner to come home for the Dodgers' third run.  Utley fouled out in foul territory beyond third base (nice running catch by Alex Bregman), but the Dodgers had made it a two-run game.

Credit:  Houston Chronicle - Karen Warren

The Astros rode Peacock's arm to the finish line.  While the Astros came close to busting the floodgates open in the bottom of the 7th when they loaded the bases with two outs, the Dodgers could not mount any offensive challenges against Peacock.  Peacock held the Dodgers hitless after he took over for McCullers and finished with four strikeouts to save the victory for McCullers.

Credit:  AP - Matt Slocum

After the game, Cody Bellinger said they had their chances and if they had played Dodger baseball, they would have won the game.  I agree.  Hopefully they'll find the magic that helped them win 104 games this season.  

Credit:  MLB Photos via Getty Images - LG Patterson

For Game 4 today, the Dodgers will hand the ball to Alex Wood.  Wood finished the regular season with a 16-3 record and 2.72 ERA.  For most of the season, he was clearly the Dodgers' second best starting pitcher behind Clayton Kershaw.  The Astros will counter with Charlie Morton (14-7, 3.62 ERA).  Morton, as we know, stifled the Yankees in Game 7 of the ALCS.  It should be a good game regardless of the outcome.  

Editor's Note:  This writer is pro-Dodgers.

Odds & Ends...

Barry Jackson, sportswriter for the Miami Herald, reported this week that they do not expect a large migration of Yankees employees to the Miami Marlins.  Jackson indicated that according to a Marlins source, the Marlins will not take any further Yankees employees without specifically negotiating with Yankees GM Brian Cashman to acquire them.  The Yankees have already lost former VP of Player Development Gary Denbo to Derek Jeter and the Marlins.  The name probably won't mean much to most of us but Denbo did hire Dan Greenlee, one of his former player development analysts, away from the Yankees according to Joel Sherman, Baseball Columnist for the NY Post and MLB Network Insider.    

As someone who grew up with Yankees managerial changes seemingly occurring every year and often multiple times within a single season, it still seems odd for the Yankees to be searching for only their third manager in 22 years.  While I was surprised the Yankees decided to part ways with Joe Girardi, I am not shocked.  I thought he did a good overall job but I never felt that he was on the same plain as Joe Torre.  I trust Brian Cashman enough to feel confident that he'll make the right choice for Girardi's successor.  The stakes are very high with a young talented team that is World Series-ready and Cashman knows that his legacy will reside in large part with this choice. 

The early favorite for Yankees manager appears to be Rob Thomson, followed closely by Joe Espada and Al Pedrique.  The Yankees emailed permission authorization to all teams yesterday to grant them access to the Yankees coaches.  This action leads me to believe that Girardi's replacement will not come from the coaching staff.  One writer said that among the many names cited as potential candidates, it's very likely that we have yet to see the name of  the next Yankees manager.  I have no idea who I want or prefer at this point.  

Have a great Saturday!  I wish the Dodgers would just hurry up and finish the World Series (I know, the Astros appear to have the final say) so that we can get on to important matters like all things Pinstriped.  Go Yankees!