Bryce Harper v. Manny Machado

Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are two players who see themselves as generational talents, both of which seeking to top the ginormous contract (13 yr, $325 million) bestowed upon Giancarlo Stanton by the Miami Marlins. That seems extremely improbable now based on the state of current market. Both Harper and Machado are 26-years-old and were selected in the top 3 of the draft 8 years ago (2010).

Photo: USA TODAY Sports

Harper was hyped extremely early and landed on the front of a Sports Illustrated cover at age 16 — labeled the “Chosen One.” When attending a showcase at Tropicana Field (Tampa Bay Rays’ home stadium), Harper hit a 502 foot blast. The following year, the prodigy was selected 1st overall by the Washington Nationals. His aspirations were as high as could be: his goals included to be the great baseball player ever and to make the Hall of Fame.

Machado received a lot of attention in his own right. Some scouts gave the then 17-year-old the nickname “A-Rod light.” He was a leader on the U18 USA team and contributed greatly in the Pan-Am Junior Championships in Venezuela, paving his team’s path to a gold medal. Machado was deemed a fantastic defender at short and was seen as a fundamentally sound hitter who would hit .300 at the big league level, providing slightly above average power as well. The Orioles made him the 3rd overall pick of the draft. 

Fast forward 8 years. Harper and Machado are free agents and hope to sign record-breaking deals. In this investigation, there are two main questions I am attempting to answer:

a. Who is the better player?

b. What salaries should they receive depending on the length of their contracts?

In order to determine who is the better ball player, I will examine where they stand in 4 out of the 5 tools of baseball: hitting (AVG and OBP), power (HR and SLG), fielding (UZR/150 and DRS), and speed (SB and BsR), as well as their durability. The arm tool is to be excluded for a number of reasons. For instance, Bryce Harper has recorded some of the hardest throws in the short history of Statcast. Back in 2017, the radar clocked one of his throws to home plate at 99.7 MPH. Interestingly enough, he was -5.5 outfield arm runs below average in 2018, per Fangraphs. Also, there is no arm strength metric for infielders (which includes Manny Machado). I think it is fair to say that there is not a direction correlation between arm runs above/below average and pure arm strength. Additionally, I feel that in the big scope of things, the arm tool is relatively insignificant. For instance, rookie 3B Miguel Andujar of the New York Yankees has a very strong arm, yet he recorded a -25 DRS (defensive runs saved). Fangraphs’ prospect experts Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen graded his arm a 70 (really good) on the 20-80 Scouting Scale. Nonetheless, Andujar’s advanced fielding metrics exemplify his defensive deficiencies. In other words, having a cannon of an arm does not necessarily translate to adequate fielding performance. That is exactly why I will be analyzing statistics that encompass defense as a whole. 

It is also important for me to note that for this investigation, I will be excluding the numbers from Machado and Harper’s 2012 season (when they were rookies). Although Bryce Harper registered nearly 600 PA that year, Machado barely eclipsed 200, which is far too small of a sample size. At that point, it makes more sense to leave that season out of the picture. Through omitting their statistics from 2012, the metric I generated will better gauge whether or not Machado and Harper were able to make adjustments after their first season in the MLB. The formula I used on the vast majority of statistics in this investigation is as follows:

(statistic in 2018 season * 0.3) + (same statistic in 2017 season * 0.25) + (same statistic in 2016 season * 0.175) + (same statistic in 2015 season *0.125) + (same statistic in 2014 season * 0.085) + (same statistic in 2013 season * 0.065) = metric for that particular statistic (AVG, HR, UZR/150, etc.)

As you can see, the formula incorporates their stats from the last 6 seasons (2013-18), with the most recent seasons weighted more heavily. What a player was able to do this past season is indisputably more predictive of future performance than what he was able to produce 6 years prior. We now begin by analayzing their hit tools: AVG and OBP.

Bryce Harper’s 2018 AVG: .249

Manny Machado’s 2018 AVG: .297

Bryce Harper’s AVG metric (calculated through formula outlined above): .279

Manny Machado’s AVG metric (calculated through formula outlined above): .283

AND

Bryce Harper’s 2018 OBP: .393

Manny Machado’s 2018 OBP: .367

Bryce Harper’s OBP metric: .397

Manny Machado’s OBP metric: .340

Score (only metrics for each stat count towards this score, not 2018 statistic): Bryce Harper 1 v. Manny Machado 1

We are now ready to take a closer look at a couple of their power tools: HR and SLG.

Bryce Harper’s 2018 HRs: 34

Manny Machado’s 2018 HRs: 37

Bryce Harper’s HR metric: 29

Manny Machado‘s HR metric: 32

AND

Bryce Harper’s 2018 SLG: 0.496

Manny Machado‘s 2018 SLG: 0.538

Bryce Harper‘s SLG metric: 0.523

Manny Machado’s SLG metric: 0.500

Power tool score: Bryce Harper 1 v. Manny Machado 1

Overall score: Bryce Harper 2 v. Manny Machado 2

Fielding is the third tool we will assess, specifically UZR/150 and DRS.

Bryce Harper’s 2018 UZR/150 (in all outfield positions combined): -16.7

Manny Machado’s 2018 UZR/150 as a SS: -6.9

Manny Machado’s 2018 UZR/150 as a 3B: 14.9

Bryce Harper‘s UZR/150 metric: -2.9

Manny Machado’s UZR/150 metric as a SS (does not account for the 53 innings he played there in 2015): -4.8

Manny Machado‘s UZR/150 metric as a 3B (does not account for the 143 innings he played there in 2018 with the Dodgers): 7.54

AND

Bryce Harper’s 2018 DRS: -26

Manny Machado’s 2018 DRS as a SS: -13

Manny Machado’s 2018 DRS as a 3B: 3

Bryce Harper‘s DRS metric: -5.94

Manny Machado’s DRS metric as a SS: -9

Manny Machado‘s DRS metric as a 3B: 11.25

Fielding tool score (if Machado plays 3B for his new team): Bryce Harper 0 v. Manny Machado 2

Fielding tool score (if Machado plays SS for his new team): Bryce Harper 2 v. Manny Machado 0

Overall score (if Machado plays SS for his new team): Bryce Harper 4 v. Manny Machado 2

Overall score (if Machado plays 3B for his new team): Bryce Harper 2 v. Manny Machado 4

The fourth and final tool we will judge is speed: SB and BsR.

Bryce Harper’s 2018 SBs: 13

Manny Machado’s 2018 SBs: 14

Bryce Harper‘s 2018 SB metric: 10 

Manny Machado’s 2018 SB metric: 9

AND

Bryce Harper’s 2018 BsR: 0.4

Manny Machado’s 2018 BsR: 1.2

Bryce Harper‘s BsR metric: 0.97

Manny Machado’s BsR metric: -1.0

Run tool score: Bryce Harper 2 v. Manny Machado 0

Overall score (if Machado plays SS for his new team): Bryce Harper 6 v. Manny Machado 2

Overall score (if Machado plays 3B for his new team): Bryce Harper 4 v. Manny Machado 4

Harper and Machado will only be worth hefty contracts if they can stay on the field with regularity; as a result, we will take a closer look at how durable they have been over the past 6 years.

Bryce Harper’s 2018 G (games): 159

Manny Machado’s 2018 G: 162

Bryce Harper’s G metric: 136

Manny Machado‘s G metric: 152

Overall final score (if Machado plays SS for his new team): Bryce Harper 6 v. Manny Machado 3

Overall final score (if Machado plays 3B for his new team): Bryce Harper 4 v. Manny Machado 5

It is rather difficult to conclude who is the better player between Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, considering Machado provides so much defensive value as a 3B, but he hurts his team as a SS; however, we can definitively say a few things about the two respective superstars:

Manny Machado 

• Hits for a higher AVG
• Hits more HRs
• Prevents more runs as a 3B
• Higher UZR/150 as a 3B
• More durable

Bryce Harper

• Gets on base more frequently
• More total bases/AB 
• Concedes fewer runs (if Machado plays SS)
• Higher UZR (if Machado plays SS)
• Steals slightly more bases
• Better baserunner (although Harper sort of has a problem with hustling as well)

Now I will reveal what contracts the numbers believe Harper and Machado should receive. Fangraphs’ Neil Weinberg estimated in 2016 that “teams are paying about $8 million per every WAR they add to their roster. For example, a 2 WAR player signed for three years would theoretically provide his team with 6 WAR, so a team might want to pay him anything up to $48 million. If the team pays less than $8 million for each expected WAR, we call this a ‘good deal’ and if they pay more, we say they ‘overpaid.'” For my contract predictions, I will base the annual salaries on $8 million/1 WAR. 

Another essential aspect that will be incorporated into my contract predictions is aging curves. 

 A basic rule of thumb is that once a player gets to 30, you sort of expect them to lose about 0.5 WAR per year of value due to aging. Some players will age better or worse, but that’s an average estimate

Neil Weinberg

In 2019, Steamer projects Bryce Harper (4.9 WAR) and Manny Machado (5.1 WAR) to contribute virtually the same value.

Here are WAR approximations (based on Neil Weinberg’s rule of thumb) for Harper and Machado over the next 13 years, along with their monetary value for each season (based on $8 million/ 1 WAR):

2019: (age 26 season): Harper – 4.9 ($39.2 million); Machado – 5.1 ($40.8 million)

2020: Harper – 4.9 ($39.2 million); Machado – 5.1 ($40.8 million)

2021: Harper – 4.9 ($39.2 million); Machado – 5.1 ($40.8 million)

2022: Harper – 4.9 ($39.2 million); Machado – 5.1 ($40.8 million)

2023: (age 30 season): Harper – 4.4 ($35.2 million); Machado – 4.6 ($36.8 million)

2024: Harper – 3.9 ($31.2 million); Machado – 4.1 ($32.8 million)

2025: Harper – 3.4 ($27.2 million); Machado – 3.6 ($28.8 million)

2026: Harper – 2.9 ($23.2 million); Machado – 3.1 ($24.8 million)

2027: (age 34 season): Harper – 2.4 ($19.2 million); Machado – 2.6 ($20.8 million)

2028: Harper – 1.9 ($15.2 million); Machado – 2.1 ($16.8 million)

2029: Harper – 1.4 ($11.2 million); Machado – 1.6 ($12.8 million)

2030: Harper – 0.9 ($7.2 million); Machado – 1.1 ($8.8 million)

2031: (age 38 season): Harper – 0.4 ($3.2 million); Machado – 0.6 ($4.8 million)

2032: Harper – -0.1 ($-1.2 million); Machado – 0.1 ($0.8 million)

2033: Harper – -0.6 ($-5.2 million); Machado – -0.4 ($-3.8 million)

Harper contract possibilities:

• 1 yr, $39.2 million total
• 2 yr, $78.4 million total
• 3 yr, $117.6 million total
• 4 yr, $156.8 million total
• 5 yr, $192 million total
• 6 yr, $223.2 million total
• 7 yr, $250.4 million total
• 8 yr, $273.6 million total
• 9 yr, $292.8 million total
• 10 yr, $308 million total
• 11 yr, $319.2 million total
• 12 yr, $326.4 million total
• 13 yr, $329.6 million total

Machado contract possibilities:

• 1 yr, $40.8 million total
• 2 yr, $81.6 million total
• 3 yr, $122.4 million total
• 4 yr, $163.2 million total
• 5 yr, $200 million total
• 6 yr, $232.8 million total
• 7 yr, $261.6 million total
• 8 yr, $286.4 million total
• 9 yr, $307.2 million total
• 10 yr, $324 million total
• 11 yr, $338.8 million total
• 12 yr, $349.6 million total
• 13 yr, $356.4 million total

In conclusion, I would prefer Machado over Harper because 3B/SS are more premium positions than RF (Harper’s home), and I would offer to pay Machado more money to play 3B.

I don't see either player getting a contract as expensive as the ones above. They are estimates which attempt to convey what Harper and Machado are really worth. The Yanks need to go after one of Harper or Machado; they'd be potentially getting a real bargain.

Now it’s your turn. If you were an MLB general manager…

• Would you sign Harper or Machado? 
• If so, how long would you sign him for?
• How much money would you pay for him?

Write your responses in the “comments” section below. 

Thanks for reading and if you're interested in reading the full article (includes what it could take for the Brewers and Mets to trade for Mad Bum), click here. Feel free to follow me on Twitter (to receives updates when I release new content) @MaxGold81356590 and make sure to check out my website (Max's Sporting Studio).

The Sights and Sounds of Steinbrenner Field...

Photo Credit: The New York Post (Charles Wenzelberg)

Pitchers and Catchers Report on Wednesday…

Here we are. The final weekend before pitchers and catchers report and Major League Baseball officially kicks off preparations for the 2019 season. Many players have already made their way to Tampa and have been seen in their informal workouts on the practice fields around Steinbrenner Field and signing autographs as they depart the hallowed grounds of 1 Steinbrenner Drive.

Photo Credit: Bryan Hoch via Instagram

I always enjoy the opening of Spring Training. So much excitement for the new season, everyone’s healthy (for the most part), and after no Major League baseball since last October, the gang’s back together again to make another run at the American League championship and the ultimate goal of winning the World Series. Of course, the feeling starts to fade in a couple of weeks when we are anxiously  and impatiently awaiting the start of the regular season but for now it’s a thrilling experience.  

The past week saw another round of rumors surrounding Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. While both young superstars remain unsigned, there is continued speculation the Yankees could make a play for one of the players if the price falls into their comfort zone. The words of Managing General Partner Hal Steinbrenner this week while attending the owner’s meeting in Orlando did not dispel the rumors. I know, he can’t say the Yankees are out because of the CBA, but he somewhat flamed the rumors by not counting the Yankees out on any moves they might make in the coming days.  

Steinbrenner made the comment, “If there’s a narrative that we’re not spending money and being cheap, that’s just false”. In my opinion, the Yankees have not been cheap. If anything, my frustration is simply the allocation of dollars that have been spent. I like DJ LeMahieu but with all honesty, the team would have been better with Manny Machado than LeMahieu. There’s been word (no official confirmation) the Yankees floated a concept of 7 or 8 years for around $220 million when they met with Machado in December. If true, Machado’s agent should have used it as a starting point for more serious negotiations. It didn’t happen, and the team quickly pivoted to LeMahieu. I don’t feel Steinbrenner is being cheap but conversely I don’t feel that he’s putting the best possible team on the field. Maybe signing Machado is not meant to be or if he really wanted to be a Yankee, he would be one by now. Regardless of events, I can’t help feel a little disappointment that neither Machado nor Harper are making flight plans for Tampa.   

At various points of the off-season, the Yankees have called Brett Gardner the starting leftfielder and Troy Tulowitzki the starting shortstop. I don’t buy either claim. At this point in his career, Gardy helps this team the best as its fourth outfielder. He is not the player he once was. Age happens to all of us, except for maybe Tom Brady or Mariano Rivera. Perhaps Clint “The Wildling” Frazier proves the injuries and concussions are behind him and he finally fulfills the promise he’s held for a few years now. I have no problem rolling out Frazier as the starter if he proves in Tampa over the next few weeks that he is ready. Personally, I’d prefer it if Frazier can take the job from Gardner because it means he has proven he can be better. 

As for Tulo, I just can’t shake the feeling he is done. Realistically, I am not expecting much from him. I think he’ll be very rusty in Spring Training, and I don’t see him as an every day starter once the team moves north to the Bronx. It feels too much like trying to “catch lightning in a bottle”. The infield is much stronger, in my opinion, with current two-year consecutive Wilson Defensive Player of the Year DJ LeMahieu at second and Gleyber Torres sliding to shortstop until the great Didi Gregorius is ready to return. 

Photo Credit: Didi Gregorius via Instagram

But despite Plan B’s that make sense with the current roster and invitees, the Yankees can be a better team with Harper or Machado. Of the two, Harper makes the most sense. Aside from the left-handed bat that he’d bring to the lineup, he represents a great option for left field, keeping Giancarlo Stanton in the healthier role as DH, and Harper could potentially develop as a first baseman. I know, you don’t pay a guy hundreds of millions of dollars to see if he can play a new position but Bryce would represent such a great resource for the Yankees in their drive to dethrone the Boston Red Sox. For Hal, Harper will increase tickets sales, both at home and on the road. If the Yankees are successful in reacquiring controlling interest in the YES Network, Harper would be a primary face and draw attraction for the team. He is a popular player, perhaps one of the most popular in the game outside of Mike Trout. This is not meant as a slam to Aaron Judge who I feel is one of the greatest players in the game, but Harper unquestionably has more fans outside of the Yankees Universe.

Photo Credit: USATSI

I am still a major fan of Manny Machado but I recognize that his presence would adversely impact Miguel Andujar. Nevertheless, the Yankees should not decide to pursue Machado because of Andujar because Machado is clearly the better overall player. But under that scenario, the Yankees would need to move Andujar to left field or first base or trade him for top starting pitching as we’ve talked about ad nauseam this off-season. Putting Harper in left keeps Andujar at third with the potential to see if he has improved his defensive game and allowing LeMahieu to slide over to the corner for support if necessary.  

My desire to add either Harper or Machado will not die until the players sign somewhere, anywhere.  Once that happens and if it is not in the Bronx, we’ll move on. The 2019 New York Yankees will be a very good team with or without Harp-Chado. If the Yankees do not sign either player, I’ll undoubtedly look at it as  missed opportunity (the “missed” chance to turn the team from very good to great) but I’ll support the current roster with full force and vigor as we all will.    

I am really enjoying Adam Ottavino as a Yankee. His ‘This or That’ videos on Instagram with his wife feeding him questions from off-screen have been stellar. Given he is a lifelong Yankee fan like us makes him so relatable, outside of the fact that he’s 6’5”, ruggedly handsome, throws a nasty slider, lives in a beautiful Manhattan apartment with an overview of the city, has an adorable wife and family, and makes millions of dollars per year.  

I like that Otto’s first pic upon arriving in Tampa this week was to take a picture of the famed George Steinbrenner statue outside of Steinbrenner Field. 

Photo Credit: Adam Ottavino via Instagram

Ottavino understands the history of the franchise better than most through his childhood fandom. He recently mentioned that his favorite Yankee hitter was Bernie Williams and fave pitcher was Jimmy Key. There’s probably guys on the team who don’t even know who Jimmy Key is. I respect both of those choices.   

After being known for years as Zach Britton, I was surprised the reliever formally announced that he’d be known by the proper “Zack” going forward. Not so much the correction of his name to match how he uses it and the name which appears on his birth certificate but rather why it took so many years for him to do it. I am sure that I’ll type Zach a time or two this season. Personally, with no offense to any Zack’s reading this, but I prefer the “ch” version of the name. It sounds more sophisticated, IMO. But hey, it’s not my name.  Britton has the right to call himself whatever he wants. If he wants to go by “Fluffy”, that’s fine by me. I guess I’ll get used to the new spelling in time. Speaking of Britton, I didn’t realize that his brother Buck was a manager in the Baltimore Orioles’ farm system. Buck Britton managed the Single-A Delmarva Shorebirds to a 68-66 record in 2018. For this season, he’s been elevated to manager of the Double-A Bowie Baysox. Not that I expect Zack to ever get over his love for Birdland, but his brother’s presence in the Orioles organization continues to give him ties to his former roots.  

I mention it every year but I’ll continue to do it until there are changes. The Yankees need to revisit their facial hair policy. I don’t want to see the uncontrolled beards like Justin Turner of the Los Angeles Dodgers wears each season or Johnny Damon’s “Caveman” look during his days in Boston, but with controlled guidelines, there’s no reason guys like Luis Severino should not be allowed to wear beards like this:

Photo Credit: YES Network

I know the Yankees stick to the policy out of respect for the late George Steinbrenner but times have changed. I do not feel that short, trimmed facial hair detracts from the brand. It seems like all of the Yankee players are sporting some type of facial hair during the off-season. And very often when Yankee players are traded elsewhere, the first thing they do is grow a beard. I saw a pic of Ronald Torreyes, now playing for the Minnesota Twins, sporting a cool goatee this week. 

Photo Credit: Ronald Torreyes via Instagram

Players should be allowed a certain degree of self-expression. I get the history and tradition of Baseball’s most storied and prestigious franchise but wearing a groomed short beard is not exactly like slapping last names on the back of the famed Pinstriped jersey. Loosen up the facial policy rules, Hal. It’s your team, set your own standard.  

This has been a tough year watching Boston win championships in both MLB and NFL. I am tired of Boston fans celebrating and want to see the fans of New York rejoice. The Yankees have a huge opportunity to make plans for a parade in late October. Let’s not screw this up. The dawn of the 28th World Championship is upon us.

As always, Go Yankees!

What it could take to acquire post-season superstar pitcher Madison Bumgarner

Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

One pitcher the Yankees should definitely look to trade for is 29-year-old Madison Bumgarner. His value diminished, as he has regressed significantly over the last three years, two of which have been plagued by injuries. In 2017, Bumgarner missed nearly three months of the season due to an injury that occurred when he was riding a dirt bike. This past season, Bumgarner missed all of April and May with a fractured left hand (off of a line drive that struck him during a preseason game against the Royals). Presumably, his recent drop in performance can be attributed to a combination of the aforementioned fluke injuries and age decline (which has subsequently led to decreased FB velocity and potency). The stat-line (all metrics according to Fangraphs) below provides evidence for Mad Bum’s recent reduction in effectiveness…

IP

2015: 218.1

2016: 226.2

2017: 111.0

2018: 129.2

K/9, FB Vel, and FB SwStr%

2015: 9.65; 92.8; 10%

2016: 9.97; 91.5; 9.7%

2017: 8.19; 91.0; 6.5%

2018: 7.57; 90.9; 4.7%

BB/9

2015: 1.61

2016: 2.14

2017: 1.62

2018: 2.98

ERA

2015: 2.93

2016: 2.74

2017: 3.32

2018: 3.26

xFIP

2015: 3.02

2016: 3.54

2017: 4.07

2018: 4.32

WAR

2015: 5.2

2016: 4.9

2017: 1.7

2018: 1.4

Despite the fact that Bumgarner’s value is deteriorating, there is lots of room for growth if Bumgarner virtually ditches his fastball…

Cutter SwStr%: 2015 – 14.8%; 2016 – 11.5%; 2017 – 11.3%; 2018 – 11.8%

vs

Fastball SwStr%: 2015 – 10%; 2016 – 9.7%; 2017 – 6.5%; 4.7%

and

Cutter AVG: 2015 – .230; 2016 – .224; 2017 – .224; 2018 – .214

vs

Fastball AVG: 2015 – .242; 2016 – .236; 2017 – .256; 2018 – .299

and

Cutter HRs and pitches: 2015 – 4 (1040 pitches); 2016 – 8 (1185 pitches); 2017 – 3 (594 pitches); 2018 – 5 (719 pitches)

vs 

Fastball HRs and pitches: 2015 – 11 (1630 pitches); 2016 – 18 (1709 pitches); 2017 – 10 (712 pitches); 2018 – 8 (703 pitches)

In 2018, Mad Bum threw his cutter 35% of the time and his fastball 34.2% (basically the same frequency). If he had implemented the following pitch mix (using more CBs and cutters in lieu of his FB), he would have indisputably pitched more effectively…

Cutter: 50% (2018 – 11.8 SwStr%)

Curveball: 37.2% (2018 – 11.7 SwStr%)

Changeup: 8.6% (2018 – 8.9 SwStr%)

Fastball: 4.2% (2018 – 4.7 SwStr%)

We can now estimate what his overall SwStr%, HRs against, and AVG against would have looked like last year with this seemingly improvised pitch repertoire. For the purpose of this investigation, let’s assume the 2018 SwStr%, HRs against, and AVG against for a particular pitch remain constant regardless of the change in its usage). 

2018 Overall SwStr% – 9.2%

vs

Overall SwStr% with improved pitch mix: [2018 total pitches – 2045; 50% cutters – 1022 pitches; 37.2% curveballs – 761 pitches; 8.6% changeups – 176 pitches; 4.2% fastballs – 86 pitches]; [(cutter 11.8 SwStr% * 0.5) + curveball 11.7 SwStr% * 0.372) + (changeup 8.6 SwStr% * 0.089) + (fastball 4.7 SwStr% * 0.047)] = 5.9 + 4.4 + 4.3524 + 0.7654 + 0.2209 = 15.6 SwStr%

That SwStr% is 6.4% higher than his 2018 mark and would have put Bumgarner in a tie for the 2nd highest overall SwStr% (Corbin: 15.6 SwStr% and Scherzer: 16.2%).

and

2018 HRs against: 14 HRs 

• # of HRs conceded / 100 cutters: 0.69541 (5 HRs off cutter in 2018 / 719 cutters thrown)
• # of HRs conceded / 100 fastballs: 1.13798 (8 HRs off fastball in 2018 / 703 fastballs thrown) 
• # of HRs conceded / 100 curveballs thrown: 0.21978 (1 HR off curveball in 2018 / 455 curveballs thrown)
• # of HRs conceded / 100 curveballs thrown: 0 (0 HRs off changeup in 2018 / 157 changeups thrown)

vs

HRs against with improved pitch mix: (0.69541% * 1022 cutters) + (0.21978% * 761 curveballs) + (0% * 176 changeups) + (1.13798% * 86 fastballs) = 7.11070902 + 1.6725258 + 0 + 0.9786628 = 10 HRs

and 

2018 AVG against: .235

• AVG against cutter: .214
• AVG against fastball: .299
• AVG against curveball: .187
• AVG against changeup: .303

vs

AVG against with improved pitch mix: (.214 * 50% cutter usage) + (.299 * 4.2% fastball usage) + (.187 * 37.2% curveball usage) + (.303 * 8.6% changeup usage) = .107 + .012558 + .069564 + .026058 = .215 AVG against

In summary, if Mad Bum had utilized the improved pitch mix, he would have likely…

• Gotten more strikeouts
• Given up fewer HRs
• Given up fewer hits

A trade of Bumgarner represents the best opportunity for San Francisco to obtain high-end young players as the franchise begins what it hopes will be a rapid rebuild under new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi

Although "Zaidi has publicly stated that the Giants aren’t making outgoing calls regarding Madison Bumgarner, ... that doesn’t mean talks with every team have died down" (The Mercury News).

We will integrate Fangraphs’ new Update to Prospect Valuation system in order to most precisely formulate realistic compensation that the Yankees could conceivably part with (for Madison Bumgarner). 

results are presented in present-day WAR and translated to a rough dollar figure based on $9 million as the cost of a win on the free-agent market. Keep in mind that the dollar figure isn’t a direct value, but rather equivalent value of a prospect relative to the free-agent market. Part of the reason prospects have such tremendous value is due to the suppressed salaries permitted by the CBA until a player has reached six years of service time. By translating the WAR figure into a monetary value, we can compare the value of prospects with the values of major-league players and their contracts. These values likely roughly approximate what an individual player might get as a signing bonus if he were declared a free agent and teams could only provide a signing bonus instead of a long-term contract.

Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards

In other words, Fangraphs assigned a monetary value for all minor league prospects (based on how former prospects belonging to that tier / rank performed during the first 9 seasons of their baseball career [“including the season in which a prospect was ranked”]). These values are comparable to current major leaguers (calculated through incorporating WAR [$9 million / 1 WAR] and the cost of the player’s contract). 

The calculations for Madison Bumgarner’s surplus monetary value can be seen below…

(2.1 WAR projection [per Steamer] for 2019 * $9 million / 1 WAR) – $12 million (salary for 2019) = $18.9 million – $12 million = $6.9 million in surplus value

The chances of the Giants netting a top 100 prospect for Mad Bum are improbable, especially when you consider that Anthony Banda, who is ranked 131st on Fangraphs’ top 131 list, is worth $9 million in monetary value. The Giants would likely have to take back some salary on Bumgarner’s contract. The majority of the prospects that are excluded from Fangraphs’ top 131 list (which can be viewed at the bottom of their Update to Prospect Valuation article) are likely on the table, with the lone exceptions being position player (hitters) prospects who are graded 45+ FV (on the 20-80 scouting scale); they have a monetary value of $8 million.

New York Yankees

The Giants are bound to be interested in RHP Jonathan Loaisiga ($6 million). On the surface, his 5+ ERA in around 25 IP gives a bad impression; however, it is important to note that Loaisiga’s FIP and xFIP were 3.53 and 2.95, respectively. He also struck out over 12 batters per 9 innings and generated GBs at an above average clip (49.2%). Loaisiga’s minor league numbers in 2018 were spectacular (though they did drop off some after a promotion to AA)…

A+

• IP: 20
• K/9: 11.7
• BB/9: 0.45
• HR/9: 0
• GB%: 52%
• ERA: 1.35

AA

• IP: 34.1
• K/9: 10.49
• BB/9: 1.57
• HR/9: 1.57
• GB%: 38.7%
• ERA: 3.93

Loaisiga’s upside is that of a #3 starter, but it appears to me that he may be better utilized as a multi-inning reliever. His ERA as a SP the 1st time through the order (10 IP) is 0.90, and his ERA the 2nd time (7 IP) is 6.43.

In addition to Jonathan Loaisiga, the Giants could ask for $0.9 million or a 40 FV pitching prospect ($1 million)…

• RHP Trevor Stephan
• RHP Matt Sauer
• RHP Domingo Acevedo
• RHP Chance Adams
• RHP Garrett Whitlock
• RHP Nolan Martinez

Of the players on the list above, Domingo Acevedo would likely be the best fit. He had a 2.92 ERA in 64.2 IP at AA. His walk rate was a tad below 3 BB / 9 IP, and he struck out just over 7 batters / 9 IP. He had a solid 1.10 WHIP at AA. Acevedo’s upper 90s FB would presumably play up in the bullpen, where he is likely to land. 

The proposal we have come up with reads as follows…

The San Francisco Giants trade LHP Madison Bumgarner to the New York Yankees for RHP Jonathan Loaisiga and RHP Domingo Acevedo

Would you do this trade? Comment below.

Thanks for reading and if you're interested in reading the full article (includes what it could take for the Brewers and Mets to trade for Mad Bum), click here. Feel free to follow me on Twitter (to receives updates when I release new content) @MaxGold81356590 and make sure to check out my website (Max's Sporting Studio).

Am I Stumped!?

Hmm .....am I missing something? 

John Bleh of the bronxpinstripes writes 

“But overshadowed by the stacked bullpens of last season and this upcoming one is a reliever that is just as important to the Yankees success: Chad Green. Green was ranked 18th in WAR among all relievers according to Fangraphs, and he’s the Yankees’ fifth best reliever. Wow.”  

This just a clip from an article written by Mr. Bleh entitled Chad Green the forgotten reliever.  

Did any of you Yankee fans out there forget about Chad Green? 

I know I didn’t! As a matter of fact all the radio shows, and things I listen make a mention to Green, a lot. It’s seems John lives under a rock. Maybe John is just out of touch Anyways Rant Over. 

Here’s still hoping for Manny or Bryce LOL I Know. Sue me I’m Greedy.  

Let’s G⚾️ Yankees!! 

JamesCPalma@Yahoo.Com 

The King of the Spring...

Photo Credit: MiLB.com and Scranton/WB RailRiders

Young Righty Gets First Taste of Major League Camp…

It seemed like such an innocuous and under-the-radar trade in November 2017 when the Yankees traded marginal prospects LHP Caleb Smith and 1B/OF Garrett Cooper to the Miami Marlins for $250,000 in international bonus pool money and young Single A RHP Michael King. Moving Smith and Cooper were clearly designed to clear space on the 40-man roster in advance of that year’s Rule 5 Draft. At the time of the trade, the international bonus pool money appeared to be the objective as the Yankees were making preparations for what would prove to be the failed run at international superstar Shohei Ohtani. King just came along for the ride…or did he?

In 2017, Caleb Smith was dominant for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders, riding an unbeaten streak for most of the year. He finished 9-1, with a 2.39 ERA, starting 17 of 18 games played for the RailRiders. He made his Major League debut for the Yankees on July 17, 2017 but the Yankees and Smith lost to the Minnesota Twins, 4-2. He shuttled back and forth between Scranton, PA and the Bronx, finishing 0-1, with 7.71 ERA, in 18 2/3 innings. Despite his Triple A success, Smith, then 26, did not appear to be a top prospect. To his credit, Smith did pitch better for the Marlins last year.  He went 5-6 with 4.19 ERA over 16 starts covering 77 1/3 innings before shoulder tightness ended his season. He is expected to be part of the Marlins’ rotation this year.

Garrett Cooper had been acquired by the Yankees in July 2017 in a trade that sent LHP Tyler Webb to the Milwaukee Brewers. Cooper had some nice moments in the Bronx, playing 13 games. He was 14-for-43 (six extra-base hits) with no homers and 6 RBI’s.  2018, in a Marlins uniform, was largely a lost season for Cooper. He injured his wrist early in the season and later re-injured it during a rehab assignment, undergoing surgery in August. He appeared in just 14 games for the Marlins. He’s now healthy and expected to compete for a job with the Marlins this season, likely as a reserve first baseman/outfielder.

After the Yankees lost out on Ohtani, the international bonus pool money was put to good use as the Yankees had a number of highly rated signings including OF Kevin Alcantara, OF Mauro Bonifacio, C Antonio Gomez, C Agustin Ramirez, RHP Denny Larrondo, and RHP Osiel Rodriguez, plus Luis Severino’s little brother, RHP Rafael Severino.

But setting everything aside, the crown jewel of the Yankees-Marlins trade has turned out to be Michael King. King, born in Rochester, New York and a graduate of Bishop Hendricksen High School in Warwick, Rhode Island, was drafted in the 12th round of the 2016 MLB Draft by the Marlins. At the time, King was the staff ace for Boston College. He signed with the Marlins, foregoing his final year of college eligibility, and was a combined 3-3 with 4.11 ERA over 30 2/3 innings at the lowest three levels of the Marlins’ farm system. He returned to Class A Greensboro in 2017 with much better results, 11-9 with 3.14 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 106 strikeouts, over 149 innings. Still, at the time of the trade to the Yankees, he was largely unheralded and unranked as a prospect.  

Last year, he opened eyes in the Yankees farm system. He started the year with High A Tampa, spent time with Double A Trenton, and finished the year with Triple A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. In 24 starts and a relief appearance, King was 11-5 with 1.79 ERA. He struck out 152 batters in 161 1/3 innings with 0.91 WHIP.  

Yankees minor league pitching coordinator Danny Borrell, via The New York Post, recently said, “Every time he moved up, he seemed to get better. He wasn’t fazed by the better competition and he knows how to pitch.” Borrell went on to say that he could see King pitching in New York this year if he pitches like last season and does not see the young right-hander regressing.  

King, 6’3” and 210 lbs, turns 24 on May 25th. He is currently rated as the Yankees’ fifth-best prospect by Baseball America, behind OF Estevan Florial, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, OF Everson Pereira, and C Anthony Seigler. His primary pitch is a two-seam fastball that sits in the mid-90’s. The key to his success in the Major Leagues is dependent upon his continued development of secondary pitches.  

King will get his first taste of Big League Camp this year when he reports to Tampa as a non-roster invitee for the Yankees. While he is not expected to make the Opening Day Roster (he only made six Triple A starts last year), his goal is simple. Catch the attention of Manager Aaron Boone, Pitching Coach Larry Rothschild and the Yankees’ army of analytics. Even though he is not yet on the 40-man roster, there’s no doubt he will be among the first to be considered if/when the Yankees have needs for help in the starting rotation this year. I’ve heard the claims that he’ll never be anything more than a middle-of-the-rotation starter, but if memory serves correctly, that’s what they said about Andy Pettitte when he was first called up. Let Luis Severino and James Paxton be the aces, the strength of the middle to back end of the rotation is what championships are made of. I am thrilled about King and what he potentially means for the Yankees. This could very well be the year of his Major League debut. I have greater belief in King as a starter than a guy like Chance Adams who I feel is better suited for the pen. Mike King is a winner, and carrying that intangible with his tremendous talent, should make Yankee fans very excited. The King of the Hill is going to create great memories in the Bronx in the not-so-distant future.  

This was a brilliant trade by GM Brian Cashman. King has proven better than we expected and he’ll continue to open eyes in Tampa in a few weeks. When the Spring games start, be sure to look out for #93.  

As always, Go Yankees!

A Look At.......

Welp not much going on in Yankee Land right now. So I have decided to showcase a player that don’t get as much attention as others. He is on the Yanks top 30 prospects list, and are all in their teens :) The Man is Devi Garcia, currently assigned to Double A Trenton Thunder. Garcia is a RHP at Age: 19, listed at 5' 10" and 163 lb. Devi was signed: July 2, 2015, for $200,000. Though their international spending spree during the previous signing period meant they couldn't pay any more than $300,000 to anyone in 2015-16, the Yankees found a pair of potential impact arms in the Dominican Luis Medina and Garcia. Garcia is some what small but has a quick arm and possesses some of the best spin rates in the Yankees’s organization. He spent his first two pro seasons in three different Rookie leagues, logging a 2.99 ERA with 146 strikeouts in 108 1/3 innings. Garcia generates tremendous spin on his fastball and a devastating one with his curveball. The curve has good depth, generates plus grades on a regular basis and is most likely his best pitch. He works in the low 90s but can hit 96 mph with his heater which can ride at times. Garcia also throws a changeup that fades and should develop into an average to good third offering. If his size becomes an issue as a starter, and or he's not durable enough to stay in the rotation, his fastball/curveball combination could make him a dynamic reliever. Time will tell, hopefully he is one of the next wave of many baby bombers.   

Sorry for the Lack of Pictures lately fans the Blogger App has been having issues for a few weeks now, and I have not had access to my Laptop.  

Hey Google Fix Your App!!!!! 

JamesCPalma@Yahoo.Com