Who Should We Fear More, Rangers or O's?

I am sure the biggest question floating around Yankee town is who would we rather face, the Texas Rangers or the Baltimore Orioles? It is actually a pretty tough question in my opinion and I am pretty shocked by it. I always tend to rely on stats but I do not think that is going to work this time because the biggest flaw and eye catcher is the difference in run differential. Texas had the 5th best run differential in the majors at +101 3 spots behind the 2nd best Yankees at +136. The Orioles came in with a +7 run differential which is 16th in the league but in the final month they made up for then 50 points in the stat. The head to head match ups are small sample sizes and drawn out through an entire 162 game marathon so they are tough to use as well. In case you were wondering though we were 4-3 against Texas this season and 9-9 against Baltimore with a losing record at home and a winning record in Camden Yards, go figure.

Texas in years past was known for a big offense but never had enough pitching until recently and that was still the case somewhat this season. Matt Harrison had nice stats and 18 wins and I think Yu Darvish exceeded everyone's expectations this season with a solid rookie campaign. The offense, averaging a MLB best 4.99 runs a game led the way once again to the post season. The Yankees were 2nd in the league with 4.96 runs per game. The Orioles were 15th in the league with 4.40 runs per game. The Yankees surprisingly, using team ERA anyway, out pitched both teams with a 12th ranked 3.86 team era this season. Baltimore was 13th with a 3.90 and Texas followed the Yankees and O's with an 18th best 4.02 team ERA.

You know why I brought up all these stats? Me either... This is a new season. All I can base it on, since this game is only in the 3rd inning and tied at 1 each, is my gut. The Orioles find ways to win, they have that shut down bullpen (except for Pedro Strop against us in August and September), they do not lose in extra innings or close games and they have Buck Schowalter at the helm. Buck could manage the Orioles AND the Yankees at the same time and do a better job then Girardi in my opinion. If I had to choose the last team I would want to see is the Orioles in the ALDS to be honest. Do not get me wrong I say bring on any and all challengers because I do not want to hear about an easy walk into the World Series but in a perfect world Id rather open up in Texas then in Baltimore.

The Orioles, very literally for once, actually defy the odds and spit in the face of the stats...

Blown Call?

An INFIELD FLY is a fair fly ball (not including a line drive nor an attempted

bunt) which can be caught by an infielder with ordinary effort, when first and second, or

first, second and third bases are occupied, before two are out. The pitcher, catcher and any

outfielder who stations himself in the infield on the play shall be considered infielders for

the purpose of this rule.

When it seems apparent that a batted ball will be an Infield Fly, the umpire shall

immediately declare “Infield Fly” for the benefit of the runners. If the ball is near the

baselines, the umpire shall declare “Infield Fly, if Fair.”

That is from the the official Major League Baseball rule book. And by that definition, the call was right. The only thing questionable about the call was whether it was late or not, but that didn't affect the outcome of the call anyway. The runners not only advanced to 2nd and 3rd, but they were allowed to stay there.

Actually, the only way the call was wrong is if you think Cardinal shortstop Pete Kozma did something extraordinary in order to get into position to make that play, and without needing to dive or make an over-the-shoulder catch. That's not how I saw it, as Kozma was there to make the catch, and ran off when he was spooked by something (the ump yelling the call, the left fielder calling him off... I don't know). 

2012 MLB Playoffs Schedule

Here is the schedule for the playoffs in case anyone is interested courtesy of mlb.com

The picture version took over the blog for some reason so you will have to click the link to see it, sorry guys.

Postseason Batters

EDIT: With the news that Jayson Nix is healthy enough to play, then I would take him over either Jones or McGehee. Not that Nix hits well, but having the extra IF would be better, due to having Gardner being able to play any OF position, and Nunez having gotten some reps out there too.

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I don't like doing the same thing as other writers, but I can't resist sharing my thoughts on the postseason roster. I already went over the pitching staff, so now it's time for the positional players.

The first nine are clear...

Colonel Jessup: Are we clear?

Me: Yes sir.

Colonel Jessup: Are we clear!?

Me: Crystal.

That would leave five spots on the bench, assuming the Yankees do what I said yesterday and only carry 11 pitchers on the postseason roster. And actually, that's what they've done recently anyway, so I think that too is clear.

Colonel Jessup: ARE WE CLEAR!?!?

Me: YES!

Chris Stewart and Francisco Cervelli are the only real options for backup catcher, and it's not a contest between the two. Stewart is hardly a big threat with the bat, but he's a good defensive catcher, and you can't ask for much more out of that spot.

Eduardo Nunez gets the nod as the primary infielder off the bench, and  he's hit the ball well this season (.292/.330/.393, with 11 SB). The only other option for this spot would have been Jayson Nix, but due to Jayson's hip injury that won't happen. Not that it really mattered in my mind, as Nix hasn't exactly wowed anybody (.243/.306/.384).

Finally, the other clear (shut up, Colonel!) player for the bench is Eric Chavez. Chavez has played mostly at 3B, thanks to ARod missing a chunk of time, and has done a good job. He can field well, and has hit .281/.348/.496 with 16 home runs on the season.

And look at those moves!

That leaves two more spots on the roster. One of those, I believe, will be Brett Gardner. Girardi likes having a speedy pinch-runner available, and for good reason, and you can hardly ask for better than Brett. Now that he's also been cleared for all baseball activities, including hitting, then I wouldn't bet against Gardner at all.

We come to the 25th man, and to be honest I don't think it matters, because there is not a good choice left. I originally penciled in Chris Dickerson on the bench, as the kid (I know his age, but he's still a kid in my mind) has done a great job with his less-than-should-have-been playing time. However that would leave the bench with only two right-handed bats on the bench (Stewart and Nunez) against a right-handed starter, and only one against a left-handed starter (I see Nunez starting at DH over Ibanez versus left-handed starters). So we're left choosing between Casey McGehee (*cough* crap *cough*) and Andruw Jones (*cough* crappier *cough*). I'm not even going to dignify that question with a response. Pick a name out of a hat, flip a coin, play Rock-Paper-Scissors-Lizard-Spock... I don't care. I just don't want to see either of those guys take one step out of the dugout, unless it's to celebrate a victory.

Where do you think you're going?

To wrap it up, here are the 25 men I'd like to see the Yankees bring to the postseason...

Pitchers

CC Sabathia

Andy Pettitte

Hiroki Kuroda

Phil Hughes

Rafael Soriano

David Robertson

Joba Chamberlain

Boone Logan

Clay Rapada

David Phelps

Derek Lowe

Hitters

Russell Martin

Mark Teixeira

Robinson Cano

Alex Rodriguez

Derek Jeter

Ichiro Suzuki

Curtis Granderson

Nick Swisher

Raul Ibanez

Chris Stewart

Eric Chavez

Eduardo Nunez

Brett Gardner

Andruw Jones/Casey McGehee Jayson Nix

My Preseason World Series Prediction Looks Good

I posted my division winners and World Series predictions before the season, seen here, and my World Series is still intact with the Yankees and Braves both in the postseason. Here is the original post.

World Series Winner Told Here

With the Yankees this close to the regular season and spring being over I decided I would throw my hat in the predictions ring of division winners, wild card winners, and playoff winners. SO here we go.

AL East : (1)New York Yankees (Shocker)

AL Central : (2)Detroit Tigers (Shocker)

AL West : (3)Los Angeles Angels (of whatever)

Wild Card #1 : (4)Tampa Bay Rays

Wild Card #2 : (drum roll please) (5)Kansas City Royals!!!!!

The Royals have a ton of young guys that are just posed to have break out and monster seasons. When that happens all at once you get this one year wonder team that runs through everybody but falters in September, see the Padres a couple years back. If the Padres had that second wild card team though , without looking at the standings to really see, I bet they would have still made the playoffs. Go Kansas City in 2012. Also, yes I do realize I left the Buffalo Bills of Baseball, the Texas Rangers, out of the playoffs. 

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NL East : (1)Philadelphia Phillies (until someone says otherwise)

NL Central : (3)St. Louis Cardinals

NL West : (2)Colorado Rockies

Wild Card #1 : (4)Atlanta Braves

Wild Card #2 (5)Washington Nationals

I think both the Eastern divisions are absolutely stacked, but none more then the NL East. Every team besides the Mets have a legitimate shot at winning a division and/or making the playoffs. The problem with that is they are going to have to beat up on each other all season long a lot until the schedules change next season with year round interleague play. I expect a lot out of the Nationals pitching staff this season and expect them to be carried by it. I also expect Jayson Heward and especially Freddy Freeman to carry the Braves to the post season and beyond with monster seasons from both. The Colorado Rockies have a ton of young pitching and I think they will go far in a very weak division. 

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NOW FOR THE PLAYOFFS:

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals

The good luck and team that everyone loves goes down here. Everyone roots for the underdog but David Price will be too much for this team.

New York Yankees Vs Tampa Bay Rays

In a short series this worries me as a Yankees fan but if the Yankees pitching staff works out the way we all expect it to then the Rays would potentially have to beat Sabathia twice, Kuroda, Pineda, or a combination of the Nova/Hughes/Pettitte/Garcia combo. Thats just too much in a short series. Yankees win

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Of Disney Land In Orange County Outside Of Anaheim

The Angels pitching will just be too much in this series for the Tigers. The Tigers defense will give away one too many runs and the Angels will prevail. The rally monkey lives!

New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Angels of San Francisco in the good part of town in Covina but not in Oakland because Oakland is a bad part of town.

The Yankees seem to be the team to beat and me, and my very heavily biased opinion, should not be the one to count against that. With a great pitching staff mixed in with a great bullpen the Yankees just need that timely hitting that escaped them in last years playoffs. The Yankees will win this series but this should be the series of the century so far. You're four best vs our four best and let us see who's bullpen falters first. If it comes down to a Jordan Walden vs Mariano Rivera battle... I cannot pick against us.

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Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals.

Stephen Strasburgh vs Tim Hudson (assuming health). As much as my gut tells me the Nationals would run all over this team it is a totally different ball game when it is the playoffs and the Nats have never been there. Braves win reluctantly.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves

Until someone knocks them off their perch I dont see how you could pick against the Phillies here... unless you're me. The Braves will knock off the Phillies in a hell of a 7 game series and continue the Phillies "super team " failures. The curse of Roy Halladay is born, lol.

Colorado Rockies vs. St Louis Cardinals

This is so hard to predict because we do not know how Adam Wainwright is going to come back and we do not know IF Cris Carpenter is going to be back. We also do not know how Drew Pomeranz is going to pitch this season so I am going to take a wild shot in the dark and use depth and pitching as a reason that the Cardinals win here. I also expect Roy Oswalt to be a Cardinal by the time this all happens so that helps.

Atlanta Braves vs St Louis Cardinals

I really think the Braves are going to be a special team this season with just way too much pitching to lose this time around. I expect the Cardinals to put up a fight, maybe even into a 6th game, but ultimately I expect the Braves to be National League Champions.

So much for this new playoff system HURTING the wild card teams huh?

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New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves

Two teams that have not met in the World Series since the 1999 World Series. This is going to be another dog fight but I think the Angels pitching staff is a little better then the Braves pitching staff so I cannot pick against my Yankees here. #28

Yankees Win!!!! TTTTTHHHHHAAAAA Yankees Win!

Do not get me wrong, I did not expect the Yankees to win the World Series last year. There were many years that I did not expect the Yankees to win the World Series so it is not just because I am a fan and a blogger for them that I expect them to win. I just love this team it has a great mixture of depth, role players, youth, experience, moneyball players, power hitters, and aging guys that would love just one more ring. Yankees or bust in 2012.

Looking Back At My Preseason Predictions

I posted this here before the season started looking at how I thought all the players would finish. See how close I got and how I miserably failed in others.

Projecting the Yankees in 2012

Russel Martin- .243/18 HR/ 64 RBI/ 12 SB 
Mark Texeira- .268/36 HR/102 RBI 2 SB 
Robinson Cano- .314/31 HR/ 117 RBI/ 9 SB 
Derek Jeter- .289/ 6 HR/ 59 RBI/ 11 SB 
Alex Rodriguez- .285/ 28 HR/ 102 RBI/ 7 SB 
Brett Gardner- .302/ 4 HR/ 71 RBI/ 51 SB 
Curtis Granderson- .271/ 35 HR/ 109 RBI/ 17 SB 
Nick Swisher- .265/ 26 HR/ 81 RBI/ 6 SB 
Raul Ibanez- .237/ 14 HR/ 53 RBI
Eric Chavez - .219/ 3 HR/ 38 RBI
Andruw Jones- .241/11 HR/ 37 RBI 
Eduardo Nunez- .243/ 3 HR/ 28 RBI/ 22 SB

CC Sabathia- 20-7/ 3.13 ERA/ 216 K's 
Ivan Nova- 12-11/ 4.14 ERA/ 108 K's 
Hiroki Kuroda- 14-11/ 4.04 ERA/ 112 K's
Michael Pineda- 13-8/ 4.22 ERA/ 141 K's
Phil Hughes- 10-7/ 4.15 ERA/ 100 K's
Freddy Garcia- 5-3/ 4.69 ERA/ 49 K's
Rafael Soriano- 48 IP/ 3-4/ 2.97 ERA/ 53 K's 
David Robertson- 71 IP/ 3-1/ 2.48 ERA/ 70 K's 
Mariano Rivera- 51 IP/ 3-2/ 2.19 ERA/ 68 K's/ 39/44 SV

Miguel Cabrera Officially Wins The Triple Crown

Not Yankees related but a huge congratulations goes out to the Tigers Miguel Cabrera on winning the first triple crown in the MLB in over 50 seasons. This is something that is rarely ever done and in my opinion will never be done again. I do not want to get into the MVP discussion I just want to let this sink in for a night that I was a witness to something that is truly historic. Congratulations Miggy! Now break a leg! No seriously... do it.

.330 BA
44 HR
139 RBIS
1 AL Central title

Congratulations To The 2012 New York Yankees

The Yankees have officially clinched their 18th American League East division title tonight when the Rays beat the Orioles. The Yankees, with this win, clinch home field advantage through the American League playoffs and a #1 seed. The Yankees know that their season has just begun and this means nothing, to some, if they do not win the World Series but for a night none of that matters. I've said it at the bottom of all 162 game threads and I'll say it one more time.... Go Yankees!!

Yankees @ Red Sox 10/3/12

Curtis Granderson 3 run home run puts the Yankees up 3-1

Cano two run home run makes it 5-1

Cano hits another two run home run to make it 7-1 Yanks

Cano two rbi single makes it 9-1

Granderson's 43rd home run makes it 10-2 Yankees

Swisher rbi single makes it 13-2

Mark Teixeira sac fly makes it 14-2 

I've got to say it is a little bittersweet to be sitting here on game 162 typing out my 162nd game thread for the blog but nothing an AL East title can't fix. The Yankees go into the last game of the season controlling their own destiny in many ways. If they win tonight do they not only become a 95 game winner, which a month ago seemed like the biggest stretch in history, but also would clinch an AL East divisional title. Also they would clinch a #1 seed and would sit and wait to play the winner of the wild card game. The Yankees will send Hiroki Kuroda to the mound to try and finish this season out on a high. The Red Sox will send Saiduke Matsuzaka to try and play spoiler. The game will be televised at 7:05 pm ET on YES.

Lineups

Derek Jeter SS
Ichiro Suzuki LF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Curtis Granderson CF
Raul Ibanez DH
Russell Martin C

Go Yankees!!

Postseason Bullpen

How many pitchers should the Yankees carry in the American League Divisional series?

Pick me!

I think the answer to that is fairly simple... they should only carry 11 pitchers. I don't see any reason to carry a 12th pitcher, because they really shouldn't be needed. Heck, I'm not even sure a 12th pitcher is needed in the ALCS or World Series. Especially with the bullpen the Yankees could bring with them, as it would carry two pitchers that could go three or more innings.

The way I see it, 10 of those 11 spots are set. The rotation will consist of four men... Sabathia, Pettitte, Kuroda, and Hughes. The bullpen will then have these 6 guys... Soriano (closer), Robertson (set-up), Chamberlain (righty), Logan (lefty), Rapada (lefty), and Phelps (long-man).

You're probably asking yourself, "so who is that other guy that can go 'three or more innings'"? Well, the team actually has three pitchers that could fill that spot.

Oh, man, I don't know.

Freddy Garcia is the first possibility. Sweaty's ERA has been an unimpressive 5.25 this year, to go along with a WHIP of 1.382. Even though he's walked a few more hitters than normal this season (BB/9 of 3.0 this season, opposed to a career mark of 2.8), Freddy has struck out quite a few more (7.3 K/9 as opposed to under 6 in each of the last 3 seasons). Even if we lower the sample size things don't look any better, since in the last 28 days (3 games against 32 batters) his batting line against is .267/.353/.667.

Then there's Derek Lowe. Since Derek debuted with the Yankees on August 13th against the Rangers, putting up a very nice line of 4IP, 2H, 0R, 0BB, 4K, his ERA and WHIP have been 3.04 and 1.268, respectively. And in his last 9 appearances, having faced 51 batters, Lowe's triple-slash against is also an impressive .149/.216/.149. One thing I noticed is that there's nothing totally out of the ordinary in terms of strikeouts, walks, or BABIP against. He's striking out less hitters than he has in his career (5.3 K/9 with the Yanks this season, versus 5.8 K/9 in his career), walking only slightly less hitters (2.3 BB/9 vs. 2.7), and his BABIP against is .289 vs. a career mark of .301.

And finally we come to Ivan Nova. It's insane that this is a guy that was thought to be entrenched in the middle of the rotation, thanks to a 2011 in which he had 16 wins with a 3.70 ERA. But thanks to an ERA this season of 5.02 and WHIP of 1.468... here we are. And it's not that he's striking out less hitters, or walking more of them. He's actually walking just as many hitters as last season (3.0 BB/9 in 2012, 3.1 BB/9 in 2011), while striking out a lot more (6.6 K/9 in 2012, 8.1 K/9 in 2012). The issue is more balls are being hit into play (.333 BABIP this year, .284 last), which hurts more when his line drive percentage against is significantly higher (22% this year, 17% last). And his triple-slash against of .283/.356/.547 in his last 3 starts doesn't help.

So the choice for that last bullpen spot is obvious to me... Derek Lowe.

"Hey, Cervelli, am I doing this 'fist pump' thing right?"