Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Swisher Wants The Yankees To See His Werth

"Thank You Jesus For Jayson Werth"
No that is not a typo in the heading that is what Nick Swisher wants the Yankees to show him, his Werth. His Werth meaning Jayson Werth who had a seven year $126 million contract signed just a couple seasons ago to play right field for the Washington Nationals. Jayson Werth, in my opinion, went from extremely underrated to entirely overrated in a matter of seconds when he signed that contract. It is well documented through out my Yankees forum postings and such that I was a big Jayson Werth supporter in the couple of years before the contract and it is also well documented that I am a big Nick Swisher supporter.. for now.

To think that Nick could get that much money via free agency is kind of ridiculous and way off base , in my opinion, but I am not the player nor am I the agent. I would guess this is just a starting negotiation and he will take less but how much less will decide whether he takes it from the Yankees or not.

Here is some of what John Heyman had to say about it when he interviewed Swisher :

Swisher initially gave the usual player-speak answer, "I haven't thought about it,'' when asked if he sees the Werth deal as a fair comp for him. I tried to lighten the mood by asking if he had ever "heard'' of the Werth contract, and Swisher characteristically responded by laughing uproariously. We both know, of course, that any corner outfielder who's a very good player having a very good year (but is a bit short of being a cornerstone player) has to have thought long and hard about the Werth deal.

Eventually, he did say about Werth's Nationals contract, "It's a great deal for him.'' And then Swisher did challenge me to look at the record.

"Check it out,'' Swisher implored me. "See what it says.''

So I did. And statistically speaking, it's pretty darned close between the two corner outfielders.
Werth was 31 when he went into his free-agent offseason, Swisher will be, too. Werth had a 19.2 WAR, Swisher has a 19.0 WAR now. I'm no WAR expert, but I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Swisher's WAR will be somewhere in the range of Werth's 19.2 by season's end, and in fact, perhaps even exactly Werth's 19.2.

A case could be made that Werth is more versatile (he can play center field, and he can steal a base or two), and maybe a bit more valuable over his career. Though both made one All-Star team, Werth twice received MVP votes.

But looking at some basic stats, their careers don't differ all that much. Werth had 120 home runs, 406 RBI and a .272 batting average heading into his free agency; Swisher has 203 home runs, 649 RBI and a .255 batting average now. Werth once hit 36 home runs; Swisher's seasonal high is 35 (Swisher actually has more 20-homer seasons, six to four).

In terms of OPS, it's darned close. Swisher's career OPS is .826, Werth's is .827 (but was a couple points higher before he got to Washington).

I am sure that this is just posturing by an agent but this may back fire if the Yankees just simply let him walk. The days of Nick Swisher in a Yankees uniform may be drawing ever closer to the end and for that kind of money.. it should. Especially if the Yankees are serious about the 2014 luxury tax threshold and keeping their payroll down this free agency.

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