Monday, February 18, 2013

PECOTA Has Yankees Winning AL East In 2013

All the talk of the Yankees getting old, playing with fire with aging players coming back from injuries, having a quiet off season, not making a big splash, and blah blah blah  has not effected the Yankees in the PECOTA department. Seen HERE you can see that the Yankees will still be the beasts of the AL East and will be affected that much by the loss of guys like Nick Swisher, Russell Martin, and Alex Rodriguez.

Final Standings Projections by PECOTA

New York Yankees 92-70
Boston Red Sox 86-76
Tampa Bay Rays 86-76
Toronto Blue Jays 85-77
Baltimore Orioles 74-88

Now everyone says that PECOTA is "deadly accuracte" but for the first time in recent memory PECOTA is giving me a "huh?" feelings with these projections. The Toronto Blue Jays are still a fourth place team and only improve by 12 games after a 73-89 record in 2012. The Baltimore Orioles go from a 93 win team and a Wild Card to last place 74 win team, a 19 loss differential? The rest is not worth arguing about but these two are really eye openers for me.

According to PECOTA the Yankees will still score 805 runs in 2013 which is an improvement over the 804 scored in 2012. 805 runs would put the Yankees 4th in the American League behind the Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers, and Boston Red Sox respectively. The Yankees pitching and defense is only projected to allow 689 runs which is only one more run then the 688 runs that they allowed last season. 689 runs allowed would rank the Yankees 2nd in the American League behind only the Tampa Bay Rays.

If PECOTA is as accurate as everyone says it is then we should all start pre-ordering our playoff ticket packages and AL East Division T-Shirts now.

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Sorry for the Capatcha... Blame the Russians :)