Thursday, May 16, 2013

Article Revisit - Stop The Knee-Jerk Reactions

Due to some confusion regarding my article regarding knee-jerk reactions, particularly when it came to my opinion of Phil Hughes, I decided to look up the #4 starters for each American League team. A pitcher being a team's #4 starter, in this case, is based on the number of innings they threw. I would have liked to do it by the top starters on each team, but I couldn't find a standard way of getting that information. I didn't want to go by WAR, because a pitcher being injured (like in Pettitte's case) would skew that. I thought about going with ERA, but if a pitcher gets called up in September and starts a few games, should that really be included? The same can go for just about any statistic. So innings pitched it is.

Okay, being lazy may have played a small part.

For example, the 2012 Yankees rotation looks like this...

1. Hiroki Kuroda - 219.2 IP
2. CC Sabathia - 200 IP
3. Phil Hughes - 191.1 IP
4. Ivan Nova - 170.1 IP (5.02 ERA)
5. Freddy Garcia - 107.1 IP
6. Andy Pettitte - 75.1 IP

On top of Ivan Nova being the #4 starter for the Yankees, here are the #4 starters for the rest of the teams in the American League in 2012...

BAL - Jake Arrieta 6.20
TB - Jeremy Hellickson 3.10
TOR - Aaron Laffey 4.56
BOS - Josh Beckett 5.23
DET - Doug Fister 3.45
CHW - Jose Quintana 3.76
KC - Jeremy Guthrie 3.16
CLE - Derek Lowe 5.52
MIN - Cole De Vries 4.11
OAK - Brandon McCarthy 3.24
TEX - Scott Feldman 5.09
LAA - Dan Haren 4.33
SEA - Blake Beavan 4.43

After adding in Ivan Nova's 5.02 ERA, the average ERA among the 14 American League #4 starters in 2012 was 4.37.

In my earlier article I said that Hughes' 4.43 ERA prior to last night's outing was "very respectable". Based on the average #4 starter from 2012, I would have been better off leaving the word "very" out. Maybe my idea of "respectable" is different than yours, but being that close to league average works for me.

Moving on to my use of the phrase "very good" in regards to Phil's ERA in 2012, which was 4.23. Again, I think this is a case where leaving out the word "very" would have worked much better. Compared to a league average for a #4 starter of 4.37, saying a 4.23 is "good" is perhaps being a bit kind. I can accept that, too.

In summary, I stand by the main point I was making in that article. That being that Phil Hughes is a perfectly acceptable #4 starter for the Yankees. Seeing if there's a better alternative to Phil Hughes out there is not only okay with me, but it's something I'd expect from the management of any team. So forgive me if I'm not going to pick up a pitchfork with you, head to Yankee Stadium, and demand change.

"It's here when you're ready" - Angry Mob

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Sorry for the Capatcha... Blame the Russians :)