Monday, January 25, 2016

2016 Yankees Statistical Predictions: The Rotation

It’s that time of the year again Yankees fans, the time of the year when I make a complete fool of myself by predicting the stats for each and every member of the Yankees team. Whether you’re in the starting lineup, the bullpen, on the bench or in the starting rotation I want to take a stab at what each player will do statistically so I can either look like a genius (won’t happen) or a damn fool (the most likely scenario) when we look back at these at the end of the season. Today I wanted to focus on the starting rotation where I believe the 2016 season will be made or broken. 

Masahiro Tanaka had offseason elbow surgery which the Yankees think could help his overall performance in 2016. Brian Cashman specifically referenced the bone spurs to Tanaka’s inability to get full extension on his split-finger fastball which limited is effectiveness. With this in mind I went a little high on Tanaka. 
Masahiro Tanaka
28 starts, 18-10 record, 2.80 ERA

Luis Severino is the Yankees #2 starter in terms of talent but will likely pitch towards the back end of the rotation so the Yankees can limit his starts and innings from time to time. Severino was nearly untouchable in his debut last season and while I can’t see him being that untouchable for the 2016 season I think he has a fine sophomore campaign.
Luis Severino
25 starts, 15-9 record, 3.33 ERA

Michael Pineda, he’s either Big Mike or he’s not. I can’t see that changing much in 2016, not until he shows me some consistency. Sometimes Pineda will be dominant, sometimes he will struggle but ultimately I think we finally get a healthy season out of Pineda.

Michael Pineda
30 starts, 14-11 record, 3.85 ERA

Nathan Eovaldi can’t possibly improve on his 14 win campaign in 2015, can he? He received close to seven runs of support per game from the Yankees offense last year, although for much of the second half he didn’t even need three of them to win a game, and seemed to take huge strides last season in his development. I think that development continues in 2016.

Nathan Eovaldi
33 starts, 16-11 record, 4.14 ERA

CC Sabathia, does he have one last hurrah in him? Well if you’re the Yankees you’re either hoping that he has left shoulder issues (quietly and yes they are terrible people for doing so) or you hope that he has two last hurrah’s in his left arm and right degenerative knee. Did the alcohol affect CC on the mound and can he pitch through a new knee brace and another year of wear and tear on that landing knee? I’m not as confident as I should be in the 35-year old.

CC Sabathia

25 starts, 10-14 record, 5.01 ERA

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Sorry for the Capatcha... Blame the Russians :)