Showing posts with label trade candidates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade candidates. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

The Possibilities Are... Nearly... Endless.

This one goes out to Scott...

The Yankees should trade for Chris Archer.

He'd look great in pinstripes, wouldn't he?

With that said, I don't believe the Yankees will strike a deal with Tampa to acquire Archer. It's not that we wouldn't be able to put together a package of players good enough to do so, I just don't see a deal that big happening between division opponents.

I had the same thought when there was talk of Baltimore trading Manny Machado during the offseason.

Even though I highly doubt either the Rays nor Orioles will compete for the AL East crown this season, I'm sure there are teams outside of the division... heck, outside of the American League... that could put a package of players together impressive enough to deal for Archer.

So while I don't believe the Yankees and Rays will get together and make a deal involving Chris Archer, I'm 99.9% certain that before August roles around the Yankees will trade for a big-time starter.

You remember when the Yankees dealt for Sonny Gray last season? Yeah... what's to come will be bigger than that.

One name that's been throw out there a bunch of times is Cole Hamels. The club option on Hamels' contract could become guaranteed, however he'd not only have to avoid the disabled list with either shoulder or elbow trouble at the end of the season, Cole would also have to throw 252 innings as well. Yeah... that's not happening. So knowing that Texas is unlikely to be a contender in a division including the Astros and Angels, and Cole's contract ends after this season, dealing away Hamels is almost a certainty.

But if what we've seen from Brian Cashman recently holds true, he's not going to trade away good to great prospects to rent a player for half a season. Brian is going to trade for somebody as good as Cole, if not better, who is also under team control for at least another year.

Let's start by looking at a list of players that could be traded...

Gleyber Torres - Honestly, I find this unlikely. Neil Walker was only signed for one year, so Torres still has a path to MLB for next season. But keep in mind that the possibility isn't zero.

Justus Sheffield - Another unlikely option, but an option none-the-less. The guy the Yankees trade for may very well be the pitcher some envision Sheffield could become. The only difference is the guy the Yankees trade for would be a year or two ahead of Justus, and already getting it done in the big leagues.

Miguel Andujar - I can see the Yankees extending the 28 year-old Didi Gregorius for two to three more years, locking up shortstop through the 2021 season. Add Gregorius with Brandon Drury (not a free agent until after the 2021 season), Gleyber Torres, and Tyler Wade, and that doesn't leave a clear spot for Miguel to get promoted into. Plus there's another guy, but I'll talk about him in a moment.

Estevan Florial - Another player I don't believe Cashman wants to part with, as he could be the heir apparent to center field and the leadoff spot in the lineup, but a possibility still. After all, Estevan may only play part of this season above A ball. And being that far away from Major League Baseball means he's far from a sure bet.

Chance Adams and Dillon Tate - While they aren't as highly touted as Justus Sheffield, both of these guys have high value, especially thanks to them being ready to step into a MLB starting rotation this year or next. And with Sheffield and the next guy I'm going to list around, neither man seems to have a clear path to a starting gig with the Yankees.

Albert Abreu - Albert may be two to three years away from the Majors, possibly making his loss more palatable than pitchers like Adams, Sheffield, and Tate. But a team looking to compete in two to three years would love to have a pitching prospect the caliber of Abreu.

Tyler Wade - Wade has shown during Spring Training that he's ready to start at the MLB level right now. Unfortunately that is unlikely to happen, at least regularly, on Opening Day. And it may never happen with the Yankees thanks to Gregorius, Drury, Walker, and Torres. Even a spot on the bench isn't certain due to Ronald Torreyes.

Thairo Estrada - There are many people, both in the organization and it's fanbase, that would hate to see Estrada dealt away. But he's in a similar situation as Tyler Wade... he has no clear spot to be promoted into.

The only two players out of those I just listed that are likely to still be with the organization after the trade deadline are Torres and Sheffield. No... they won't be the only ones, it's just that the other six could be elsewhere.

And let's not forget that Brian Cashman may absolutely love Manny Machado (the guy I was referring to when speaking of Miguel Andujar), and has already put together a contract to offer Manny as soon as Game 7 of the World Series is over with.

The point is the Yankees can very easily put together a package of players that can't be matched. The Padres, White Sox, and Braves systems may be better, but they don't have a young core like the Yankees have with Judge, Sanchez, Bird, and Severino. Oh, and they don't have a Giancarlo Stanton, either. So, unlike the Yankees, those other teams need to keep some of the big prospects they have.

Oh... and money. Those other three teams don't have the ability to buy players like the Yankees do.

So you may be able to cross off great young pitchers from contenders like the Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Nationals, Cubs, and Dodgers. And you can probably cross off great young starters from the rest of the teams in the American League East. But it's likely that any other pitcher in Major League Baseball is in play.

Anyone.

So I'm not going to give you a list of targets, because the fact is that list is way too large. Just imagine a great young starter from any team not listed above, and smile because they could be on their way to the Bronx soon.

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Solving The Logjam In The Outfield


There are a lot of ways Aaron Boone can fill the outfield and designated hitter spots in the lineup in 2018.

Mind you, I'm sure some of these guys could play the other positions. For example, Judge or Stanton may be able to pick up left field just fine. I'm just listing guys in those places based on where they've played recently, and fairly often.

When it comes to left field we have Clint Frazier, Brett Gardner, or Aaron Hicks.

In center field there's Jacoby Ellsbury (did you know he hasn't played any other outfield position besides center field since 2010?), Brett Gardner, or Aaron Hicks.

And in right field there's Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Clint Frazier, or Aaron Hicks.

Furthermore, with his injury history, Boone will probably slot Stanton into the DH spot at least a couple of times a week. We'll also likely see Aaron Judge batting out of the DH spot at times, too, as this not only allows Judge to get a half day of rest, but it also allows Stanton to play right field (his normal position).

Having options when filling out a lineup card is great, but there is such a thing as too many.

First of all, it would leave Boone to constantly second guess himself, and be second guessed by others. He's already a first-time manager, so there's no need to make his job tougher. Every single day he'd hear something along the lines of "why didn't you start (insert name) instead of (insert name)?"

Secondly, the Yankees are not going to carry six outfielders on their active roster. With only three or four bench spots available to them, usually depending on bullpen needs at the time, chances are only one of them will go to somebody that exclusively plays in the outfield.

We've been hearing about ways the Yankees could trade Jacoby Ellsbury for a long time, but I just don't see it happening. Ellsbury has already said he doesn't want to leave the Yankees (damn that no-trade clause), and with three straight years of being a below average hitter, I don't see why anybody would want him... no matter how much of his contract the Yankees pay.

There's also been talk of trading Brett Gardner. I think the possibility of this is better than with Ellsbury, but I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for news of a deal to happen. Brett's OPS+ the last three years is exactly 100, which means he's an average hitter. His ability to not only play a strong left field, but center field as well, is great. However, with only one more year on his contract, he doesn't come off as a guy teams are looking to "rent".

Aaron Hicks would draw some interest, but I don't think the return would be enough that Cashman would seriously consider this possibility. Don't get me wrong, I like Hicks, as I believe what we saw in 2017 is more like the hitter he can be. And this Aaron can play any outfield position, and play them well. But would you trade anything significant for him? I don't think so. Perhaps if he has another season with the bat like he just had, but you can't forget 77 OPS+ he hit overall in his previous 1289 plate appearances.

That leaves Clint Frazier.


No... I'm not going to bother saying why neither Giancarlo Stanton or Aaron Judge would be traded.

Clint didn't blow anybody away in his first taste of the Majors, but we're talking about a very good prospect (Keith Law ranked him 20th back in April). Frazier was actually the centerpiece of the group of players the Yankees received when they dealt Andrew Miller to Cleveland. At 22 years old he has plenty of prime years in front of him, and five of them will be under team control.

So there's no doubt that a large handful of teams would try and get him from Cashman.

To be clear, Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury are not what makes me say the following. The fact that Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Aaron Hicks should play regularly, coupled with the fact that Clint Frazier is better than a fourth outfielder, is why I say this...

Trade Clint Frazier.

The Yankees starting rotation currently includes Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, and Jordan Montgomery. Severino looked like an ace last season, and isn't set to be a free agent until the 2022 offseason. Masahiro Tanaka had an up and down 2017, but he's closer to the 2016 guy we saw (when he finished 7th in Cy Young voting) than the one we saw last year, and he won't be a free agent until after the 2020 season. Sonny Gray is pretty darn good, especially when he gets some run support, and he's signed through the 2019 season. And while Jordan Montgomery would be one of the better pitchers on pretty much every other MLB team, he's currently the fourth best with the Yankees, and will not be a free agent until after the 2023 season.

So the Yankees do not need another starter. They could easily just sign CC Sabathia, sit back, and smile at a pretty awesome starting rotation. But why do that when you can do something better? Why "settle" for Sabathia as the team's final piece to the rotation? Trade a nice asset, at a position overflowing with possibilities, and get another good to great young starter.

Recently Gerrit Cole's name has popped up as a trade target. The Diamondbacks could use some offensive help, and have pitching to spare. The Brewers and Rockies also have some good starters but lack a bit offensively.

The fact of the matter is Clint Frazier is more valuable to the team as a trade chip than he is as a player. If Clint could play center field then we are not having this conversation. And if Stanton or Judge were not any good in the field, and thus should be relegated to DH, then we're not having this conversation.

In fact, the only reason I can see holding onto Frazier is if the Yankees either can not get a good return in a trade, or they are convinced neither Judge nor Stanton can play left field. I don't believe that first part, but if that second part is true then hold onto Frazier to take over left regularly either this year after Gardner is traded or next year when Gardy's contract is up.

Thursday, November 2, 2017

Who Stays And Who Goes?

"Does anyone want me to stick around?"

The Yankees have a handful of problems to fix this offseason. Like pretty much every team in MLB, the rotation is a question mark, and by Saturday we'll have a clearer picture of what the plan should be there (Tanaka has to decide to opt-out or not by Saturday). They have to figure out what's going on with Dellin Betances too.

However, I want to focus on position players.

The Yankees have a good problem on their hands here, but none-the-less it is a problem. They simply have too many players. While Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, and Jacoby Ellsbury are the "regular" outfielders, Clint Frazier is waving his arms around saying "what about me?" Gleyber Torres is unlikely going to be ready for a role in the Majors on Opening Day, but he could force his way into the discussion by June. And Miguel Andujar is ready for the big time as well.

So how do you open up spots for those guys? By getting rid of guys in their ways, of course. That means we're bound to see two or more significant trades this offseason. And with that in mind, I wanted to go over the position players and their chances of getting dealt away.

I'm going to start with the guys that are not getting dealt...

Gary Sanchez - Arguably the #1 offensive catcher in the game making near the league minimum on a team looking to cut payroll? Sure, his defense could use some work, but you're not going to find any catcher as valuable as Sanchez.

Didi Gregorius - One of the most well-liked players on the team, coming off the best offensive season of his career, an excellent fielder, won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2019 season, and the team doesn't have a good replacement for Opening Day (Torreyes is not a good replacement for Didi and Torres will not be MLB-ready on Opening Day or soon after).

Greg Bird - While I'd bet that a number of teams would be interested in a young first baseman with a high ceiling, who won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2021 season, Bird isn't going anywhere. That youth, salary, and potential is what makes him so attractive to the Yankees. Plus he'd be a sell low right now since he wasn't great offensively and suffered a significant injury this year.

Aaron Judge - Let's see... an MVP candidate that plays Gold Glove defense, who is not eligible for free agency until after the 2022 season. He has the best-selling jersey in Major League Baseball, and an entire section of Yankee Stadium is named after him (oh, and those that sit in that section wear judge's robes). Aaron, along with Gary, are absolutely not getting traded.

Then we come to Brett Gardner...


While I'm on the fence when it comes to trading Gardner, I lean towards "no". This time last year I was all for trading him, particularly because I saw no way the Yankees could deal away Jacoby Ellsbury, and they needed to open up an outfield spot for Aaron Hicks and Clint Frazier. But after seeing what he did this year, both as a player and as a role model for his teammates, I hope Brian Cashman can find a way to keep Gardy and make room for Hicks and Frazier.

Which leads me to the guys that I can see being traded this offseason...

Jacoby Ellsbury - 2011 was a very long time ago, and Ellsbury has proven that he's not the player we
saw then. That year he hit .321/.376/.552 with 32 home runs and 39 stolen bases, but he never again hit that well. He may have had a solid season in 2017, but teams are not going to be fooled by it. Sorry... GMs are not dumb. He's owed a little less than $64 million over the next three years, which means the Yankees would have to include nearly $30 million to facilitate a trade. But saving $10+ million a season (the difference between what they'd be paying to trade Jacoby and Frazier's salary) would be a big deal next year, so I hope Cash can find a taker.

Chase Headley - While it seems like the Yankees overpaid for Chase, if you look at Fangraphs Dollar Value for the guy you'll see how untrue that is. $13 million is just not as much as it once was. Headley's value last season was $15.3 million. Now, would the Yankees get a top 100 prospect in return for him? No. Would the Yankees get a good prospect in return for him? Probably not, unless they included some money in the deal. But here are two reasons why this really should happen... 1. I'd love to bring back Todd Frazier (more on him later), and 2. it'll make room for Gleyber Torres.

Starlin Castro - If Cashman can not find a taker for Chase Headley, then this is the next place he should look. The reason I'd move Headley first is because Castro is a slightly better hitter, and Starlin will make about $2 million less than Chase next season (not to mention he's on a team-friendly deal for 2019 as well). Either way I'd be happy to see either man go, though. Castro's defensive woes and poor at bats during the postseason drove me and many other Yankees fans crazy. The big downside to trading Castro instead of Headley would be that Todd Frazier wouldn't have a spot on the team. But having a spot for Gleyber Torres should be the main goal.

Before I wrap this up I should mention Aaron Hicks.

I believe Hicks has earned the right to play regularly. Unfortunately, that's not going to happen with the Yankees unless both Gardner and Ellsbury were traded away (don't count on that). But I'm not broken up about that. Yes, Aaron's batting line of .266/.372/.475 with 15 home runs (in only 301 at bats, mind you) was very good, but I can't ignore how bad he was the previous four seasons. Could those years have just been growing pains? Absolutely they could have, and the Hicks we saw last year (at age 27) was the real one. But the development of Clint Frazier takes precedence over Aaron's playing time. Besides, there's a good chance that the DH spot will be a revolving door next year, meaning Hicks will still get plenty of playing time. And sadly injuries will happen.

And some of those injuries are sadder than others.

I know what I want to see happen, and chances are I'm going to let you know about all of that relatively soon, but I'd like to hear what you guys think.

Thursday, June 8, 2017

The Yankees have too many outfielders, therefore...

The Yankees have too much depth in the outfield. Of course, having too much depth is not really a bad thing, because inevitably something's going to go wrong with one or more of those guys. There could be an injury or two, one or more prospects could fail, or that depth has to be used to fill holes at other positions through trades. And that leads me to this article.

What we have is the baseball version of this.

I'll break it down the easiest way I can, with bullet points (coincidentally it's an easy way to write, too)....
  • The chances of trading Jacoby Ellsbury are not good. While he's been effective this season, the people that run the other 29 teams in Major League Baseball are not stupid. They can see his below average output the previous two years. They can see that he's currently dealing with a concussion and neck sprain. And they sure as hell see that he's still owed around $80 million through 2020 (if you assume his team option for 2021 is bought out). Not impossible to trade, but not likely either.
  • Brett Gardner is having his best season with the bat, thanks to power output that's never been seen out of him before. His highest home run total for a season is 17 in 2014, and his total so far this season is already at 12. And therein lies the problem. Without that power he's just another good to great defensive outfielder with an average bat, which is not at all hard to come by in the league. So if you were running a team, would you make a trade for Gardy? Did you have to think about it? Even as a Yankees fan? Yeah... exactly.
  • Then we have Aaron Judge. I don't have to tell you that this guy is a future star, because he is a star. This is a guy the team should build around, not use as trade bait. And I don't think Brian Cashman and Company need me to tell them that.
  • Has Aaron Hicks finally reached the potential that so many have seen in him since he was drafted by the Twins in the 1st round of the 2008 Draft? Possibly. Am I going to keep asking questions and then answering them? Yep. Will other MLB teams offer the Yankees enough in a trade that it's worth dealing Hicks away? I seriously doubt it. Not that other teams wouldn't be interested in acquiring Aaron, I just think he's worth more to the Yankees being on their roster compared to what they would fetch in dealing him away.
  • Clint Frazier, Dustin Fowler, and Tyler Austin are in AAA and could be called upon by the Yankees at a moment's notice. Blake Rutherford is just a couple of years away from being ready for the big leagues. And Estevan Florial has been impressive down in Charleston. Simply put, the Yankees are not hurting for minor league outfield prospects.
Taking all of that information into account, I don't believe it's a question of "will the Yankees trade away an outfielder or two?" No, the question is "when will the Yankees trade away an outfielder or two?" And that will lead to the question "who will the Yankees trade away?" 

Unless the Yankees take a nosedive in the standings, which I don't see happening (for the record I can see them losing their grip on 1st place in the AL East, but they won't be "out of it" towards the end of July, either), the answer to the question of "when" is easy. 

The starting rotation needs help. While Luis Severino looks like a guy we can count on, I'm less than confident in the other four guys. CC Sabathia has been the second best starter since the beginning of May, and if the Yankees need him to start a postseason game I'm going to be concerned. Jordan Montgomery has done a good job, but I get the feeling every start of his could be the beginning of a downfall. Micheal Pineda has won eight games this year, but the question of which Mike will show up when he takes the mound is getting old. And although I still think Masahiro Tanaka will figure things out I'm still a little worried.

Now, it's true that the Yankees can call up highly touted prospect Chance Adams, and he could help stabilize the rotation. But I think the rotation could use more certainty than even the best prospect could provide. And speaking of Adams, even with the rotation's future up in the air, the organization still has a couple of other nice prospects in Albert Abreu and Justus Sheffield. 


So there it is... I see the Yankees trading away at least two of their outfield prospects for a starter. Big surprise hearing that from me? Huh? I've probably already wrote about trading for a starter dozens of times since the offseason started. But hear me out...

I can already hear some people yelling "what about third base?" 

Well, for starters, Gleyber Torres has been getting a lot of work at the hot corner, and people from both inside and outside the Yankees see him getting a call to the Majors sooner rather than later. The second reason I don't see a significant trade for a third baseman is the fact that the Yankee offense has been second best in the league (fWAR of 11, only trailing the Astros at 12.3), and well ahead of their biggest competitor in the AL East (the Red Sox have an fWAR of 7.4). Third, the Sox have a damn good rotation, which bests the Yankees starters in fWAR 9.5 to 8.2. 

So here's another question... where do the Yankees need to improve the most in order to compete for the division and beyond? The starting rotation.

That's not to say the Yanks can't improve in the bullpen. But with Aroldis Chapman returning to pair with Dellin Betances, along with a handful of right-handed relievers that can hold things down, their needs in the 'pen are not within the definition of "big".

Okay, so back to outfielders plus others for a starter. Here's the package I see being offered...

Brett Gardner - while the power may not seem legit, he certainly has value. 

Michael Pineda - if a team deals away a starter they're going to need somebody to throw those lost innings for them the rest of the season. At the same time, the acquiring team may not want this guy to cost them beyond this season. This guy is basically just a rental in order to eat innings.

Clint Frazier - with the way both Aarons have broken out, along with Dustin Fowler looking like a soon-to-be MLB player, Clint is expendable. Furthermore, he is somebody that would be a key piece in acquiring a young stud starter.

Justus Sheffield - With Pineda being a free agent after this season, the acquiring team may want somebody that could fill the rotation spot opened up by the trade for next year and beyond. But not just any old arm, an arm with high upside that is under team control for many years. That's where Sheffield fits. I suppose this could be Chance Adams, but I think the Yankees would rather keep the guy that could contribute to their postseason push right now.

I can also see one more piece being added to this package, and sadly it wouldn't be just a "toss in". This guy could be one of Jorge Mateo, Miguel Andujar, or Tyler Wade. Or possibly another pitcher such as Albert Abreu or Dillon Tate.

That's a pretty good package of players, isn't it? So what would the Yankees get in return? How about this man?


Gerrit Cole finished 4th in Cy Young voting a couple of years ago at the age of 24, and I believe his poor August and September last year are much more an anomaly than the norm (outside of those two months his ERA was 2.78). Even better is the fact that Cole isn't scheduled to be a free agent until after the 2020 season, keeping the team from having to spend big for another pitcher to fill the top of the rotation (and no free agent pitcher worth a damn comes cheap). Which would allow the team to sign Bryce Harper, joining Judge and Fowler, Hicks, or Ellsbury in the outfield.

By the way, as to why Pittsburgh would agree to this, the trade would free up room for them to trade away Andrew McCutchen (who they've been interested in trading away for a while now), leaving them with an outfield of Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Gardner, and Frazier. Not to mention that they'd have a future starting rotation that includes Ivan Nova, Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, and Justus Sheffield. 

That would give the Yankees a starting rotation next year of Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Jordan Montgomery, Chance Adams, along with re-signing one of  Masahiro Tanaka or CC Sabathia. This with an outfield of Aaron Judge, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Aaron Hicks, before they sign the aforementioned Bryce Harper after the season.

For the sake of being complete, the Yankees infield would include Greg Bird at first, Starlin Castro at second, Didi Gregorius at short, Gleyber Torres at third, and Gary Sanchez behind the plate.


Phew. This article was meant to be a small piece about the Yankees trading from their biggest area of strength, the outfield, and turned into something much larger. I don't know about you, but I think the end result is pretty darn interesting.

I wonder if this thing works.

Sunday, March 26, 2017

Nick Ahmed? Really?


I seriously don't get it. The Yankees reportedly would consider trading for 27 year-old shortstop from the Diamondbacks, who's put up a batting line of .221/.268/.329 in 842 MLB plate appearances, rather than hand the job over to Tyler Wade, Starlin Castro (while putting Rob Refsnyder or somebody else at 2B), or any of their other in-house candidates.

You're telling me Wade couldn't hit .221/.268/.329? Refsnyder has already shown that he could hit better than that in MLB. In fact, Daniel has already talked about a number of options to replace Didi until he's healthy, which you can read here and here.

Hey, Cashman! Stop wasting time on looking for trades like this and start thinking about the starting rotation, not just for this season but for the future. Because that is the one place that concerns me, and should concern all Yankees fans.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

The Yankees Should Not Trade For Trout

Although no deal is imminent, and few even think a deal as possible, there has still be a lot of talk about the Yankees trading for American League Most Valuable Player, Mike Trout.

I like to think he's smiling about the idea of being a Yankee.

Many Yankees fans are drooling over the idea of Trout wearing Yankee pinstripes, and for good reason. Mike is only 25 years old, just won his second MVP award, and was the runner-up for the award in his other three years in MLB. Mike Trout may be the best baseball player any of us will ever see in our lifetimes.

So it's quite easy to see why anybody would want him on their team. Whenever he comes to bat people stand, not expecting good things to happen, but knowing good things will happen. But do me a favor and answer me this...

Where did the Angels finish in the standings last season, and in 2014 (the other season Trout won MVP)?

In case you don't know, or didn't go check, I'll fill you in...

Last season the Angels finished in 4th place in the American League West, and in 2014... while they won the most games in the AL during the regular season... got swept by the Royals in the AL Divisional Series.

Want more proof that one guy does not make a winner? In 2015 Josh Donaldson won the AL MVP, and his team the Toronto Blue Jays lost to the Royals in the AL Championship Series. The 2013 Detroit Tigers, with AL MVP Miguel Cabrera, lost in the ALCS. And the 2012 Detroit Tigers, again with AL MVP Miguel Cabrera, got swept in the World Series.

Those aren't bad finishes, but just making the postseason is not the goal. The goal should always be to...

"Win the whole @#$%ing thing."

So I don't care about whether or not Mike Trout plays for the Yankees. What I care about is the Yankees winning the World Series. And while having an MVP caliber player like Trout certainly helps, it doesn't guarantee anything. Especially in a game like baseball, where the Most Valuable Player in the game gets the same number of at bats as the majority of all batters in the game.

To further drive home my opinion let's look at a recent trade proposal brought forth by Randy Miller of NJ.com...

Randy believes that the Yankees could trade the following six players for Trout...

Didi Gregorius
Luis Severino
Dillon Tate
Jorge Mateo
Dellin Betances
Clint Frazier

I'm not going to get into whether or not either team would accept such a deal, I just want to point out the ramifications of this for the Yankees.

For starters, it would mean banking on Gleyber Torres to develop into a strong MLB player, which is certainly no guarantee. Just ask those that thought the same thing about Brien Taylor, Todd Van Poppel, Ruben Rivera, Greg Miller, Joel Guzman, etc. There's a chance that Torres doesn't make it, and the Yankees end up reaching for somebody like Stephen Drew or Brian Roberts again. And nobody that wants the Yankees to win would wish for that.

Secondly, the Yankees' starting rotation future is very up in the air. While they have a number of prospects that could be strong contributors in the future, is it smart to take any away? Instead of a future rotation that could be filled by Severino, Tate, James Kaprielian, Justus Sheffield, and Domingo Acevedo, the Yankees could find themselves reaching in trades or free agency to fill their rotation even if all three of Kaprielian, Sheffield, and Acevedo work out. Which is not a good bet, as at least one of those three will probably become MLB relievers or fade away completely.

The third reason to be concerned about making such a trade is the bullpen. While it's true that the Yankees have been good at developing relievers, Dellin Betances is not just any reliever. While the Yankees could have Aroldis Chapman, who would they have to pair with him? Adam Warren? Jacob Lindgren? Who? Having a great closer can be big, but if the team struggles to get him the ball with the lead then does Chapman matter? Just ask Orioles fans, who just watched one of the greatest seasons by a closer ever, but still missed the postseason. Or ask Reds fans about when they had Chapman. Or Phillies fans when Ken Giles was wrecking it for them in 2015. Or Braves fans in 2014, when Craig Kimbrel was killing it.

"At least there was no pressure when my team finished 17 games back from first place."

Here's one more final thought... 

While the Yankees have outfield prospects like Aaron Judge and Blake Rutherford, they are not Clint Frazier. Judge had big problems with a large strike zone in MLB last season, and has had trouble keeping his strikeout total down at any level. Blake Rutherford is just 19 years old, and a ways away from MLB. And I can't say it enough... look again at the number of former top prospects that went nowhere. The Yankees outfield could very well be left with Jacoby Ellsbury, a right fielder that strikes out a ton while running into the occasional home run, and a third outfielder that is no better than replacement level.

While I would love to see Mike Trout wear a Yankees' uniform, I do not want them to pay the price to acquire him. I think many fans would agree that the Yankees will have plenty of chances to win in the near future without him. 

Monday, May 9, 2016

Most Popular Article of the Week: Let's Get Some Things Straight

By Bryan Van Dusen SEEN HERE:

After everything I've read on Twitter, Facebook, and in many other Yankees blogs, I feel the need to drop some truths.

"You mean there are people on the internet that are dumb!?!?"

Some of the things below are pretty obvious, but believe me when I tell you that there are people that don't "get it". It's like some people think Major League Baseball is no different than fantasy baseball, meaning a player can be dropped without giving it a second thought. Or that trading a player is simple.

They don't understand that it's more than the numbers a player puts up on Baseball Reference. Honestly, I'm sure there's a heck of a lot more to how a General Manager constructs a team than I'll ever know. But I feel pretty confident in saying the following things...


1. Jacoby Ellsbury is a Yankee, and chances are he's going to be a Yankee for four more years (that's after this season). 

There are only two ways that would change...

The first is by the team cutting him, which is highly unlikely when the guy we're talking about cutting makes over $20 million a season. No team in any sport wants to spend that much money on absolutely nothing, even if they have something great to replace him with.

The second option is by trading him. The only possibility of that happening is in a bad contract for bad contract deal. And while many people may perk up at that idea, I urge you to relax and realize something... the Yankees would not get back anything good in return. The return for Jacoby might make less money, or maybe for a year or two less, but don't expect that new guy to help the team any more than Ellsbury currently is. Or should I have said any more than Ellsbury currently is not?

2. Chase Headley is going to get every opportunity to play. 

That means he's likely to start at third base for the majority of Yankees games. Sure, the team has less money wrapped up in Headley than they do with Ellsbury, but they are going to do their damnedest in order to recoup that investment.

Does that mean the Yankees wouldn't cut him? Not necessarily. Chase is owed $26 million over two years after this season, which by Yankees standards isn't a ton. So I wouldn't be too shocked to see them spend that for nothing. But during a time where the salary threshold is on the minds of the team, I don't see it happening.

What about trading him? I guess there's a chance, albeit a slight one, of this happening. On the surface he'snormally an average hitter with a good to great glove at third base, which seems appealing. However, his home run total being in the lower double-digits is sure to turn off any team even thinking of acquiring a new player at the hot corner, as that position is usually reserved for somebody with power.

3. It's perfectly fine to hope that Mark Teixeira and/or Alex Rodriguez get traded, but you better not expect it.

Since the start of the 2014 season, Teixeira has hit .233. That number is bad. But we all know Mark is no longer a high batting average hitter, he's more about power. Okay. Well, last season Tex averaged .28 home runs per game, and this season that average has been cut in half to .13 homers a game. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, but even that isn't great as we're talking about a guy hitting around 23 long balls a season. You know how many MLBers hit 23 or more home runs last season? 42. And he's hardly a cheap rental for a team, seeing as how he'll be owed about $11 million come the trade deadline.

Alex Rodriguez is another name I've seen as somebody that could get dealt before this season's deadline, thus giving me another reason to roll my eyes. While he's unlikely to finish this season with a sub-.200 batting average, nobody should expect it to get much further north of that mark. He seems to be hitting better as of late, but when I see a 40 year-old with a slow bat it's hard to be very optimistic. Sure, a 25 home run season is a fine bet, but expecting another 33 home run total is probably a bit naive. And keep in mind that he's not a half-year rental like Tex would be, as the acquiring team would owe Alex around $30 million through next season.

"Who needs to buy Cuban cigars when you can just buy Cuba?"

4. Didi Gregorius is not going anywhere.

Although the majority of Yankees fans like the guy, there are a few that have wanted to see the Yankees rid themselves of Sir Didi. They look at his poor hitting this season, combined with his average bat in 2015, and see a totally replaceable player. But what these people tend to forget, or simply don't understand, is that defense at shortstop (or simply up-the-middle defense) is very important.

I can't tell you how many times since last season I've watched Gregorius complete a play and thought "Jeter hasn't been able to make a play like that since the early 2000s". For so long Yankees fans have seen decent to downright poor defense from the shortstop position, and I believe that has caused them to dismiss good to great defense at that spot as important.

I suppose the Yankees could trade Didi away, move Castro back to short, and call up Refsnyder to play second base again. But would the Yankees be better off? I'm not so sure. The Gregorius-Castro combo in the middle of the infield has been tremendous, and going from that to Castro-Refsnyder would absolutely be noticeable (and not in a good way). That wouldn't be helped by a struggling pitching staff, either. Besides, the offense might get better thanks to Ref possibly being a better hitter than Didi, but would it be that much better. I have my doubts.

5. Don't count on the team trading Brett Gardner.

Brett is one of the best trade pieces the Yankees could offer another team. He's a good to great defender, and not just in left field, where he's spent most of his time since Jacoby Ellsbury joined the team. Many teams would love to have his glove in centerfield for them.

He's also been an average to good hitter in each of the past 4+ years. That's not to say his batting average, which may not get above .260, is anything to write home about. But he can hit 15+ home runs, and couple that bit of power with the ability to steal well over 20 bases a season. Heck, in the right situation, I think 30 stolen bases is more than possible.

The most intriguing thing about acquiring Gardner would be his pay. He's making just $13 million this season, $12 million next year, $11 million in 2018, and his club will have an option for 2019 at just $12.5 million. Yes... "just". You know how much money he was worth from 2013 through 2015, according to Fangraphs? Over $70 million!

But the money thing is exactly why I don't see the Yankees trading Brett away. Unlike so many others on the team, here we have a guy that's not only out-playing his salary. but said salary isn't so high that it keeps the team from being able to spend elsewhere... should it want to actually do that again.

6. There's a good chance Starlin Castro is a Yankee for many years to come.

Nobody, whether they work in the Yankees organization or simply root for them, would confuse Castro for Robinson Cano. However, you have to remember that while Starlin will make $46 million through the 2020 season (assuming the Yanks exercise their club option for him), Cano will make $96 million during the same time period. Oh, and then another $72 million in the three years after that. Which is a round-about way of saying Castro is fairly cheap.

Don't get me wrong, I believe Starlin is hitting over his head right now. In fact, if his batting average is .300 at the end of the season, I'll eat the shorts I'm currently wearing*. But he should at least be able to average .280 this year, and for the foreseeable future. And while a double-digit home run total is totally doable, I don't think he'll flirt with a total of 20 homers by year's end.

And don't forget what I talked about with Didi earlier, as these two could anchor the middle of the Yankees' infield for a while. And I don't think any of us should be upset with that.

*Just kidding, I'm naked while I 'm writing this

7. Brian McCann is about as close to non-tradeable as you can get.

I'm not saying Brian McCann is a bad player. He's a good hitter, who actually had the most home runs among all catchers in the Majors last season. And Brian is among the better defensive catchers in the game, thanks to his ability to frame pitches and throw out attempted base stealers at a rate better than league average.

The problem with McCann is his contract. He's due to make $34 million through 2018, which is the third most among his catching peers. And note that one of the guys making more than him behind the plate, Buster Posey, is one of the better hitters in the league... regardless of position.

Even if the Yankees were able to find a taker for McCann, which likely means they'd have to eat a good chunk of his remaining salary, the problem they'd run into is the ability to replace him.

It's a little sad that McCann has pretty much carried the Yankee offense this season, having the 2nd highest OPS+  on the team. Yeah, Castro's OPS+ is higher, but I believe McCann's spot in the lineup makes his slightly lower OPS+ have a bigger effect on the offense. And anybody that would replace his at bats is going to bring with him a weaker bat.

Austin Romine has little experience in MLB, and his .251 batting average in AAA does nothing to help me get over that. Meanwhile, Gary Sanchez is only hitting .238 for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to go along with an OBP of .299... ouch.

8. Masahiro Tanaka's back has got to be killing him.

No, the health of his back is just fine. That thing about his back is my way of saying he's carried the Yankees rotation moreso than any other pitcher in the Majors. He not only has an ERA below 3.00, while every other starter has an ERA above 5.00 (two of them are actually above 6.00), but he's the only starter who is giving up less than ten hits for every nine innings he pitches.

Heck, every other starter has a won-loss record below .500.

I don't care how much or little the guy is making, because the Yankees would be a lost cause without Tanaka right now. Then again, I don't know of anyone that wants the Yankees to trade 'Hiro away, but just in case let me simply say "uh-uh".

And I didn't even get into his role on future Yankees' teams.

9. Luis Severino is still a big part of the team's future, so he's not going anywhere.

Luis is hardly the first pitcher to struggle early on in his MLB career. I've already pointed out how pitchers like Felix Hernandez had a rough early going before turning into a dominant pitcher. Not that I would put those type of expectations on anybody, but we're still talking about a guy that not long ago was seen as the future ace of the team.

Which is exciting when you see a guy like James Kaprielian throw like he has in the minors, and could be a part of a killer one-two punch for the Bombers for many years to come. then you can put them with the aforementioned Tanaka, to create a top 3 in the rotation that could rival some of the best in the game.

Unfortunately, a team needs at least five starters, meaning the starting rotation is not an area the Yankees should even think about subtracting from.

10. Ivan Nova is probably going to be in the Bronx at season's end.

There was a time I thought that Nova would make a good trade chip. He had started over a hundred games in MLB, and was at least serviceable in that role. You've all heard the old adage "a team never has enough pitching", so I don't think it would be hard for Brian Cashman to find a taker for Ivan.

But that thought all but vanished before the season even started, thanks to the injury to Bryan Mitchell, which will cost Bryan the vast majority of the season. I suppose the team could call on Luis Cessa to take Nova's place as the multi-inning reliever in the team's bullpen, but Ivan's history of starting makes me believe the team would rather hold onto him.

Keep in mind that Nova's return would be "okay" at best, so it's not like the Yankees would miss out on something big by holding onto him. I suppose he could be part of a nice package of players, which would get the Yankees an attractive return, but I could see the Yankees balking at adding him to said package. Besides, I don't think the other team would back out of such a deal just because Ivan wasn't included in it.

11. The Yankees are stuck with CC Sabathia.

Do I really need to expand on this? The combination of his salary, his ineffectiveness, and his poor health history, make him as unmovable as Pablo Sandoval at an all-you-can-eat buffet.

Will any of us ever forget this moment?

12. Now for a real trade possibility.

While Carlos Beltran is certainly not the player he was between 2006 and 2011, he's still somebody that could contribute to many teams.

That's not to say he's going to come into a situation and turn a bad offense into a good one, but Carlos will put up respectable numbers across the board. And when you combine that solid bat with his ability to at least fake it in the outfield, along with his vast experience in the postseason, you have a guy that plenty of teams should find valuable by trade deadline time.

13. Everybody is on the lookout for starters...

... and the Yankees could very well have two guys that a contender could want going into the second half of the season.

Like Carlos Beltran, neither Michael Pineda nor Nathan Eovaldi would join a team and make them instant favorites to win the World Series. However, both of them have shown the ability to be a good middle of the rotation starter.

Pineda was not only able to finish 2015 with a solid ERA of 4.37, but for a guy with an iffy shoulder making 27 starts was quite nice. And his ability to strikeout around a batter an inning is sure to turn some heads come late July.

Then you have Eovaldi, who has never finished a season with an ERA higher than 4.43, and is a good bet to stay healthy until year's end, so that he could slot into the #3 or #4 spot in a team's postseason rotation.

Before this season I thought one of these two would pitch his way into an extension for the Yankees, seeing as how their rotation beyond Tanaka, Severino and Kaprielian was up in the air for the future. But with all the money coming off the team's books between this and next season, it has to go somewhere, and the starting rotation could very well be it.

I mean, where else will it go?

McCann and Sanchez could lock down the catching spot for a long time, Castro has second base covered, Gregorius and/or Mateo could keep shortstop warm for a while, the team has a plethora of outfielders to choose from up for a long time, Bird could very well be the first baseman of the future. In fact, other than possibly third base, I don't see a spot where the team has to spend any more at all.

So I say trade away one or both of Pineda and Eovaldi.

14. There is one place where the Yankees could really make a splash, and improve their future...

Instead of separating these next three players into their own sections, I figured I'd put them together. After all, the fact that there are three of them actually makes this the one spot where the Yankees could actually do something to make the team better, without hurting themselves much at all.

See, the Yankees have three guys that could be among the better closers in the league. I don't have to get into the numbers on these three guys, heck... I don't even have to say their names.

However, even though there are three of them, I believe only one of them is a true trade candidate.

Aroldis Chapman is going to be a free agent after this season, and his ability to shut an opponent down at the end of the game is utterly meaningless to a team that may not be close to a playoff berth. However, there will be plenty of teams not named the Yankees with playoff aspirations come the end of July, and any one of them would love to have the services of Mr. Chapman.

But why hold onto both Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller? Well, just look at the history of the Yankees. Since the mid-90s the Yankees have had a great one-two punch at the back of the bullpen. You had Rivera-Wetteland, you had Robertson-Rivera, you had Robertson-Soriano, you had Betances-Robertson, and now you have Betances-Miller. And seeing what those combos did over the years makes me believe the Yankees would never want to stray from it.

And look at the money part of it...

The highest paid reliever in baseball, outside the Yankees, is Craig Kimbrel at $11.25 million (Chapman will make $11.35 million this season). Meanwhile, Miller and Betances make less than that combined. And come next season, when Betances will be arbitration eligible, they likely won't make much more than Kimbrel anyway.

That combination of history, effectiveness, and cost make me believe Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances will continue to rack up strikeouts for the team for another couple of years.

15. And then you have the rest.

Aaron Hicks, Ronald Torreyes, Dustin Ackley, Austin Romine, Chasen Shreve, Johnny Barbato, and Kirby Yates are fine players. Heck, some of them could turn into solid regulars on the Yankees or another team. But for the time being, whether the Yankees keep them or trade them, I don't see anything of significance happening with their name connected to it.

So there you have it. It's likely that I missed a good point here or there, but this should give you a good idea of where the Yankees stand when it comes to what they can do this season.

So even if the Yanks can't make up enough ground to turn into contenders this season, you should at least watch some of these guys to see if they can help the team in one way or another this season and for years to come.

"But I want it now!!!"