Should the Yankees deal for Hafner?

They say vertical pinstripes are slimming.

So the latest AJ Burnett trade rumor has to do with dealing him to the Cleveland Indians for Travis Hafner. Hafner is owed $13 million for 2012, and has a club option for 2013 at another $13 million (with a buyout of $2.75 million). So the money thing would work out pretty well without any having to be exchanged, as the Yankees would save $3.5 million this season (the buyout wouldn't affect the team's payroll until 2013) and would already have a strong bat to face right-handed pitchers in a platoon with Andruw Jones facing left-handed pitchers.

Although that would depend on whether the Indians believe Burnett is worth $8.625 million a season, as the difference between what him and Travis make is $17.25 million (including the buyout that Cleveland would have had to pay Hafner next season, assuming they wouldn't want to bring him back), and AJ is under contract for two more seasons. So it's possible the Yankees would have to add a couple million dollars into the deal to get it done (at most the Pirates have been reported to only want to take on $15 million of Burnett's deal, meaning they think he's only worth $7.5 million a season).

And before you come to a conclusion on whether the Yankees should even entertain this idea, take a look at Pronk's numbers against right-handed pitchers last season. In 260 plate appearances vs. RHPs he hit .302/.404/.482. Even in 2010 it was pretty darn good, as he put up a line of .279/.385/.478 in 351 plate appearances vs. RHPs. 2009? .292/.375/.490 in 293 plate appearances vs. RHPs. I think it goes without saying that he would be a more ideal guy to have than Raul Ibanez, Johnny Damon, or Hideki Matsui with the bat.

Notice that last bit? "With the bat"? Yeah, I added that part because outside of having a superior bat against right-handed pitchers, the guy hasn't stepped foot on the field defensively since 2007 (91 innings). And even then the guy hasn't played the field regularly since 2003, when he was at 1B for the Indians in 329 innings. So we're talking about a DH-only guy, and as I've made it clear I'm not a fan of DH-only players on the team. Then again, it is only for one year, so perhaps I should bend my rule on things here.

Lastly I took a look at his injury history. Last season Hafner missed a decent amount of time with foot (20 days) and oblique (30 days) issues. And on top of that he missed 4 days due to ankle problems. And as you can see at the link, it wasn't the first season in which Pronk has battled health issues.

In all, although I think he'd make the best DH platoon option out of the names we've heard, his injury history just don't make me want to see this trade with Cleveland happen. Before getting to the injury history I was leaning towards rooting for it to happen, but seeing that he missed 52 games last season pushes me to the "no thanks" side of the argument.

Jorge Soler a Yankee?

It's not somebody that could step into RF next season, but I do like hearing that the Yankees could still take advantage of the rules surrounding International Free Agents.

2:18pm: The Yankees have serious interest in Soler, ESPN.com's Buster Olney tweets.

12:33pm: Many teams remain involved in the bidding for 19-year-old Cuban prospect Jorge Soler, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter). The Cubs have been extensively linked to the outfielder, but they’re not the only club involved.

The Yankees are in on the bidding, tweets David Kaplan of CSN Chicago, and Heyman suggests the Marlins could be involved. Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald hears that “a good number” of teams have interest (Twitter link). Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectusexplained yesterday that Soler would rank 38th or 39th on his list of top prospects.

As long as the contract the Yankees would give Soler doesn't reach the reported 4 year, $27.5 million, that the Cubs were willing to offer (sorry, can't remember where I read that originally, so I can't link to it) then I'm happy about this. You can see from my last piece on going after Cole Hamels, it would require the team to let Granderson go, and one of Mason Williams or Jorge Soler could be his heir in CF (or LF with Gardner moving to CF).

If AJ Is Traded Who Gets The 5th Spot?

Who Wins The 5th Spot?

Anyone who is a Yankees fan and has been paying attention knows that the New York Yankees are trying to trade AJ Burnett to 4 teams, namely the Pittsburgh Pirates. The latest via Buster Olney on twitter has said that the Pirates are willing to pay $13-$15 million dollars and include two non roster players (prospects). The Yankees are not blown away by either of the prospects included but I think in the end they got close enough to their "50/50 split" on AJ's remaining salary so I see us giving in and the deal getting done some time this week. Now that everyone is up to date with the news let us do what blogs do best... speculate. 

Vote for me... or else

The competition for the 5th starter spot would essentially fall down to Freddy Garcia vs Phil Hughes. Last season we got way more then what we could have ever wanted or expected out of Freddy Garcia. 25 starts, 12 wins, 146 innings pitched, striking out just enough, not walking many, leaving runners on, and having a positive WAR. All this on a minor league deal. Surprisingly , according to Fan Graphs, Bill James and all their predictors are expecting a lot of the same from Freddy Garcia in 2012, minus the wins. Wait.... what? He does not miss many bats at all and eventually the "junk baller" and soft throwing has to catch up with him, especially in the AL East... right?

Maybe this is why he pitched so bad last season...

Look, we all know that Phil Hughes had a terrible 2011. We all know that he came to Spring Training apparently out of shape and eventually he went to the DL with the phantom "dead arm" injury. 74 major league innings, 14 starts, 5 wins (and losses), an anomaly in my opinion of a 5 point K/9 ratio which was crazy low to his career norms, not to mention his FIP was more then a run lower then his ERA was (which is encouraging for those who do not understand sabermetrics), and still managed to almost make a full point in WAR. Nobody on Fan Graphs is expecting much out of Phil Hughes in 2012 either, which I cannot blame anyone for thinking so.

We all know that this is going to be a make or break season for Phil Hughes, while Freddy Garcia is just trying to elongate his career. There are many things you have to consider when making such a decision. First and foremost, what is best for the team? If we're getting an in shape Phil Hughes , much like the 2010 version, with a fire lit under his seat... then it is Phil Hughes. Secondly you have to consider what is best for the long term? Again, Phil Hughes. Phil can continue to increase his innings while being young and under team control for a while. Freddy Garcia is a stop gap and if Brian Cashman knew we was going to trade for Pineda and sign Kuroda then Garcia would not be a Yankee right now in my opinion. You also have to consider the player, the players morale, the clubhouse, etc. Freddy Garcia has been very open in the fact that he actually wants to and prefers to play for the Yankees. He also said, granted last season while on a minor league deal and not his major league deal he possesses today, that he would be willing to pitch out of the Yankees bullpen. Sounds like we have a perfect back up and fall back plan if Hughes faltered. 

If you are asking me right now my 5th starter is Phil Hughes. The potential is there and the risk and reward is there. This is not 2011 where we have question marks in the rotation and we're trying to bandaid a rotation together. We have a pretty impressive top 4 in Sabathia, Pineda, Kuroda, and Nova. We can afford to take a chance on Phil Hughes in the 5th spot and hopefully strike lightning in a bottle. If he falters he can take his bullpen experience to the pen and we can get the "rock" that is Garcia in the 5th spot. Sounds like a win-win situation and those are always good positions to be in...

Countdown To Pitchers & Catchers

Check back tomorrow, and every day, as we count down to February 19th and the day that pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training.

Cespedes signs with Oakland

Yoenis Cespedes, the 26-year-old Cuban outfielder, agreed to terms Monday on a contract with the Oakland Athletics. Cespedes signed a four-year deal worth $36 million.
via - Yahoo Sports

Along with the trade of Jesus Montero, now two of my wishes for the Yankees this season will not come true. And I'm not confident at all that the team will make Teixeira stick to batting right-handed. Just goes to show that I'm much better off spewing my stuff here than in the Yankee front office.

I'm not really upset about the fact Cespedes won't be in New York, as it's hard to be sad about not getting a guy that you don't know much about. An AAV of $9 million is a little more than I thought he'd cost (the Marlins apparently had the 2nd best offer of $36 million over 6 years), but it would still be cheaper than it'll cost to bring back Nick Swisher, which I believe is the best option currently available at the end of the season. Meaning the team is going to have to start thinking about somebody that can hit for a high batting average elsewhere, like at 3B while moving ARod to full-time DH (an inevitability), or maybe at SS to replace Derek Jeter.

AJ Burnett's Value

Whether it's fantasy baseball or "real" baseball, you always here the phrase "don't sell low". And not surprisingly a lot of Yankee fans have been using that statement when it comes to trading AJ Burnett. They argue that his value is lower than it's ever been, so it doesn't make sense to trade him now.

There's no doubt that Burnett's value has never been lower. In 2010 his ERA+ was 82, and in 2011 it wasn't much better at 86. And in his 13 seasons of MLB, those were the 1st and 2nd lowest ERA+ seasons he's had. On top of that, AJ's fWAR last year was 1.5, was 1.4 the year before, and his fWAR hasn't been lower than 2.6 since 2001 (it was lower in 2003, but AJ only made 4 starts that season, so I'm giving him a pass there).

But the problem with that thinking is that it implies that Burnett's value is going to go up, and I'm not sold on that. The only good thing I can say about AJ, and I've done it right here at this blog, is that I believe Burnett will be able to give the team 175+ innings. And there is value in that, at least to a team like the Pirates, who don't have to worry about leaning on AJ throughout the playoffs or regular season. The Bucs simply need a guy to eat innings for a couple of seasons, while kids like Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon develop for a couple more years in the minors.

For starters, AJ's Home Run percentage has gone up in each of the last three seasons (2.8 to 3.0 to 3.7). Then I see his Extra Base Hit percentage the last three years has also gone up and up (6.9% to 8.4% to 9.9%). Although his Strikeout percentage is still pretty good (20.7% last season), I just don't see it getting close to the 25.5% that it was in 2007, so that it truly makes up for a really high walk-rate (3.93 BB/9IP last season, 2nd in the AL to Gio Gonzalez). Put all that together with the fact he's had 58 Wild Pitches over the last three seasons, which leads all of MLB by 15 (King Felix is 2nd with 43), and I'm not going to miss AJ Burnett at all.

But will AJ's value go down? I can't say for sure that it will, but I have a very good reason to say "yes", and that lies in the fact that Burnett may see very few starts in 2012 for the Yankees. In fact, I could see him being in the bullpen all year long. And if you think anybody would be willing to take on a reliever with a price-tag of 1 year at $16.5 million you're crazy. Jeremy Affeldt got a 1 year $5 million contract with the Giants, which was the highest 1 year contract given out to a non-closing reliever this offseason . So at this point there is certainly reason to think that AJ Burnett's value, for the rest of his career, is as high as it'll get. Which frankly is pretty sad.

So I'm going to be pumping my fist when/if Burnett is dealt.

If AJ Burnett Is Traded...

Who Is Gonna Throw The Pie?

The Yankees want Garrett Jones, the Pirates will not give up Garrett Jones. The Yankees want to only pay half of his remaining $33 million, the Pirates only want to pay $10 million of it. The Yankees are ok with a prospect in return, so are the Pirates. Yeah Yeah Yeah, what I am more concerned with is who is gonna throw the pie at our players after walk off wins? Lets look at the possible replacements.

You can automatically knock out Russell Martin, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, and Curtis Granderson in my eyes out of the starting 9. I do not see CC Sabathia involved, nor do I see Hiroki Kuroda, Michael Pineda, Phil Hughes, or Freddy Garcia. I do not see anyone in the bullpen or on the bench either so the field has narrowed.

Robinson Cano

Ivan Nova

Nick Swisher

These three men are our ONLY hope for survival in the walk off pie celebrations. Robinson Cano seems like a guy that likes to have fun and such but he is too calm and too busy hitting home runs and playing "worse" defense then Dustin Pedroia. I guess we can pencil him out of the running. Ivan Nova seems like a great club house guy but he seems too respectful. He is always the first at the top of the steps to meet and greet and Yankee and give them an "atta boy" when they are coming off the field. Ivan Nova seems too respectful to be the pie man. Thus leaving Nick Swisher, which is why I chose him getting hit with the pie instead of anyone else in the picture above. Nick Swisher, no pressure, but you are our only hope to keep this alive... get it done. Yankees fans, hold this moment close to your heart because we will NEVER see it again..

Meet A Prospect : Tyler Austin

The Next Big Thing?

I am a prospect humper... no other name to call me. I love and I embrace the moniker because I know that I am what I am. With that said, I was thinking of doing a series called "Meet A Prospect" and I could not think of anyone better to start off with then my personal man crush, Tyler Austin.

Tyler Austin is graded by scouts as a B-, which anyone with a High School diploma, a GED, or an equivalent diploma can tell you... that is pretty darn good. He is a 3B by trade but also can play 1B and would be a perfect DH type as well. He is now 20 years old but at 19 yrs old he had one of the more polished bats in all of the New York Penn League (NYPL), the same NYPL that Mason Williams tore up in Staten Island. This is probably an anomaly but he was 18 for 18 in base stealing opportunities last season as well. 

Drafted in the 13th round of the 2010 draft he broke his wrist in his 2nd pro game and missed basically the entire season. In his first season in  extended spring training, the Gulf Coast League (GCL), and the NYPL in Staten Island Austin had a triple slash of .354/ .418/ .579 in 47 combined games including 26 extra base hits. 

At 6'2" and 200 pounds his frame is athletic and speedy for a guy his size. He has shown that he can spray the ball to all fields although he needs to develop more power. He has nothing left to prove at the "lower" levels of the minor league systems and looks to bring his tools with him to Low A Charleston starting in 2011. The biggest concern with Austin is going to be what position will he play. The scouts are wondering whether he can be adequate enough to stay at the 3B position, although his lack of power thus far scares most away from having him be a 1B. Well that and his K/BB ratio is not something you go home crying to your mom about either with a nearly 2/1 ratio IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. 

Keith Law, insider required or I would link, even placed him on his "sleeper" prospects for the 2012 season saying “Third baseman Tyler Austin has turned himself into a pretty good defender over there, defying earlier predictions he’d have to move to first,” said KLaw of his sleeper pick for the Yankees. “[He] has a whole-field approach to hitting with pull power right now, and runs well for his size with a perfect stolen-base record in the pros.” 

A New AJ Burnett Trade Possibility Appears

Being borrowed from our friends over at Yankees Fans Unite

KC's Clint Robinson

AJ Burnett trade rumors are in no short supply. We’ve heard Pittsburgh and Seattle as possible scenarios but Dan Martin of the NY Post brought up the Kansas City Royals today. Martin says ”the Pirates and Royals among the teams most actively looking into acquiring Burnett.”

To me the Royals are an intriguing possible trade partner because they have what the Yankees are looking for in return – hitters, more to the point young hitters. We know the Yanks sought lefty DH/OF Garrett Jones from Pittsburgh and were supposedly re-buffed, so who would make sense to get back in return from KC?

I wrote about the perfect fit Billy Butler would be a couple of weeks ago, but he would require much more than AJ (think Betances and more) and there is no way KC would part with their young lefty hitters, 1B Eric Hosmer or OF Alex Gordon. However, the Royals have a player in AAA ready for the big leagues but is blocked by the aforementioned Butler, Hosmer & Gordon – his name is Clint Robinson.

Robinson, 26, is a 6’5″ 235 pound lefty hitting 1B/DH who has nothing more to prove in the minor leagues. In 2010, he won the AA Triple Crown with a .335-29-98 line that included a .410 OBP & .625 SLG. Promoted to AAA in 2011, he kept hitting, posting a .326-23-100 line with a .399/.533/.932 OPS. He was drafted in the 25th round in 2007 and is not considered a big time prospect because of his draft position, relatively modest stats in A ball and lack of defensive skills. But through hard work and back to back monster years, he’s ready for prime time. I should temper the expectations a little with the disclaimer that the numbers put up in 2011 were in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. However, the guy can obviously hit.

KC Director of Minor League Operations Scott Sharp was quoted on MILB.com regarding Robinson:“An offensive force,” Sharp said. “Left-handed power with tremendous ability to use the entire field. He has patience at the plate and good strike-zone discipline. He continues to improve defensively and has taken some reps in left field.”

That is what clinched it for me. He’s not just a masher but a guy with power who uses the whole field, has patience and knows the strike zone. He struck out just 88 times in 561PAs in 2011 and 86 times in 535 PAs in 2010. Robinson would be a great candidate for Left-handed DH platoon as he destroyed RHP last yr to the tune of a .330 batting average and .418/.561/.979 split.

I think if the Yanks ate $23-25M of Burnett’s salary, they could definitely expect to get Robinson in return. KC has floated his name around this Winter in trade talks since teams know he can hit but they simply don’t have a spot for him. They do however, have a glaring need for a veteran pitcher who can eat innings. The Royals have a lot of talented young pitchers but they will be babied and can’t be counted on to supply 180-200 IP. AJ could soak up innings while the kids grow and would probably be more comfortable in Kansas City since it’s close to his native Arkansas.

Some fans have mentioned the Yanks should give Jorge Vazquez a shot at the DH for his performance in AAA. Problem is JoVa’s right-handed, strikes out a ton, doesn’t walk or hit for average and is 30 yrs old. Robinson is 26/27, lefty, controls the zone and hits for average and power. I really think he would be a good fit. What do you guys think?

I am actually totally in love with this idea. As a lot of you probably do not know I am the biggest AJ Burnett fan that there ever was. There is just something about throwing a no hitter with 9 walks that really peaks my interest in a player. I was ecstatic when the Yankees signed him and even more ecstatic when he was a huge piece in us winning the 2009 World Series. While I would absolutely hate to see him go, and so would both my jersey's of his which would essentially become dust collectors, I understand and want what is best for the team. Make it happen Cash, and soon.

Please Mr. Cashman, trade AJ Burnett

There’s nothing imminent, but there’s apparently hope that the Yankees and Pirates can strike a deal that would send A.J. Burnett to Pittsburgh. Jon Heyman adds that while the teams are “a few million apart” in negotiations, they were still talking.

The Yankees’ goal is to convince a taker to pay part of the $33 million remaining on Burnett’s contract over the next two years to help them sign a designated hitter. Heyman tweeted the Yanks offered to pay the Bucs less than one-third of the salary, something closer to a 50-50 split, but that wasn’t enough. The Pirates also turned down the Yankees’ request that lefty-swinging Garrett Jones be part of the deal.

The Pirates’ plan is to platoon Jones, 30, with Casey McGehee at first base. Jones has some pop, but also batted .243 and struck out 104 times in 423 at-bats to go with 16 home runs and 58 RBIs. He’s also a .199 career hitter against lefties, which clearly makes him half of a platoon situation.

Speaking of DH targets, the A’s have interest in either Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui, but both are considered long shots.

Mr. Cashman! Get a deal done! Honestly, if Burnett were to be the 5th starter for the Yankees I wouldn't be upset. Although evidence over the last two years shows otherwise, I still believe that AJ could be a viable starter... especially at the bottom of the rotation. I just don't believe a pitcher that had a bWAR of 8.3 from 2007 to 2009, would really only be worth -0.5 wins like he was in 2010, or even 1.1 wins in 2011. Somewhere in that twisted mind of AJ's there's a good pitcher. We've saw it pop up here and there in 2011, like on September 25th when he went 7.2 innings, giving up 2 ER with 6 Ks, against the Red Sox.

But the fact is, the team has better options. I really want to see what Phil Hughes could do in 175 innings this season as a starter. Phil still has plenty of upside. It may not be as an ace like some thought he'd turn out as when he was still in the minors in 2006, but a good middle of the rotation pitcher is still well within reason. And although I don't expect another season with an ERA of 3.62, I fully expect Freddy Garcia to be able to give the team a good chance to win in a majority of his starts.

As for the last sentence, with Matsui not being able to play the field, I don't think Hideki's chances of being in New York are good at all. And I really hope Oakland signs Johnny Damon, because I don't want him on the Yankees (I think I've mentioned that before). I'm sure, if Damon is signed by Oakland, he'll say something like "2001 was a great year as I loved playing in Oakland, so I'm so happy to be back". You know... some sort of bullshit like he gave Tampa, New York, and Boston.