On December 11th of 2008 the Yankees and their fans thought they had their ace. That was the day the team signed CC Sabathia to a seven year deal, before tacking on a couple more years after
he opted out they gave him an extension. Although few thought he would be the #1 starter through his entire contract, even fewer thought 2013 would go so badly for Sabathia.
We've all made that face quite a bit during CC's starts this season.
Sabathia's 4.91 ERA is higher than it's ever been in his 12+ seasons in Major League Baseball. Hell, it hasn't been at or above 4.00 since his 2005 season with the Cleveland Indians. His WHIP of 1.353 is higher than it's been since 2002, he's given up more hits per nine innings than he ever has, and his home run rate is also at a career-high. In fact, in terms of WAR, CC is the Yankees fourth-best pitcher following Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte, and Ivan Nova.
All season I've said that Sabathia would figure it out, as he's been too good of a pitcher for too long. But it may be time to accept that he won't ever be the same pitcher again, and the Yankees are going to have to work hard to find a strong top of the rotation starter for next season.
I'm still not ready to call Nova a top-of-the-rotation starter, despite the fact he's failed to throw a quality start in only one of his last 11 starts (not counting the June 29th game against the Orioles, in which he came into the game in the 3rd inning and threw 5.2 innings of two-run ball). Maybe I'm just being stubborn because I talked trash about the guy earlier this year, and I'm not ready to say I was wrong. Maybe it's because I, and others, thought we had a solid starter coming into this season, only for him to have a 6.48 ERA in April, before being sent to the minors less than a month later. Either way, I think it would be dumb to pencil him into the top of the rotation for 2014. At least if it's done without having an eraser handy in case another starter was found.
I've already talked about how the team should try really hard to bring back Kuroda. Although his last three starters have been bad, awful, and slightly less awful, there's no denying that he's been the best pitcher on the team this season. He leads the all starters in WAR, ERA+, WHIP, and K/BB (he's .01 points behind Nova in ERA). I actually said the Yankees should offer him another $2 million raise like they did between 2012 and 2013, while another blogger mentioned that they should give him as much as $20 million.
Whether it's $17 million or $20 million, the Yankees shouldn't stop there, due to the fact that CC Sabathia has gone from exclamation point to question mark. So what free agents, besides Kuroda, are available?
"Well, there's not a lot here."
After being roughed up by the White Sox on August 5th, Andy Pettitte's started five more games to a 1.20 ERA. But being 41 years old, I can't ignore what he did earlier this season, when his ERA was 4.71 after his first 20 starts. There's no way I could trust him as a #3 starter on the team, and it makes no sense to spend around $12 million (his 2013 salary) on a #4 or #5 guy. I love Andy, but this year should be the end of the road.
We've all heard the name "Matt Garza" quite a bit over the past two years, due to him being linked in trade talks with the Yankees. He was finally dealt away from Chicago in mid-July, and went to the Texas Rangers. Although the Bombers could have used a solid starter, going to Texas is a really good thing, as the team can see what the guy can do in the American League, and for a contender. So far he's doing pretty well, having a 4.04 ERA after eight starts. I'm not saying he's a legit #2 starter or higher, at least not yet, but you have to give a guy some time to adjust to a new league. I'll be watching him the rest of the season.
After a disastrous 2012 season, in which he posted career highs in ERA, WHIP, HRs, and Walks, Tim Lincecum has improved. He's not the same pitcher he was from 2008 to 2011, but he's shown signs of once again being a top-of-the-rotation starter. His August 3rd start against the Rays stands out, as he went 7 innings, while giving up just one run on 6 hits. But what he does from here on out could mean the difference between Yankee fans clamoring for him, or Yankee fans wanting to stay away from him like he has the plague itself.
"But I changed my look for New York, as I knew the long hair wouldn't work there."
Ignoring the fact he's always been a National League guy, Ricky Nolasco is having a pretty darn-good season. Before being traded to the Dodgers, Ricky had an ERA of 3.85 in Miami. But since going from a dud of a team to a contender, he's thrown very well. The Dodgers as a whole have to be really pleased with his 6-1 record in his 10 starts, along with a career low mark in hits and homers per nine innings, while maintaining solid strikeout and walk rates. Like Garza, it's great to see him pitching for a contender like the Dodgers, as Yankee fans can see what he can do in a pressure situation. Which he certainly did
not have before the trade.
Other than those three names, there are some fairly interesting ones. Ubaldo Jiminez can void the last year on his deal and become a free agent, Scott Kazmir will be available, and Ervin Santana has come back strong after a poor 2012 season. Mind you, those last three probably don't make your mouths water, but they may work in the middle of the rotation.
The bottom line is this... the Yankees should not lean on CC Sabathia to carry the starting rotation any more. Can he be a solid starter? Absolutely. But if the starters look like Sabathia, Kuroda, Nova, Pineda, and ???, I won't feel really good about it. I may not even feel just "good". In order to acquire a top starter to add into that rotation, the team may have to rely on the trade market, which is always an uncertainty, but the fact is more than one move has to be made there.
"As if my job wasn't already going to be really tough this offseason."
