Fangraphs Predicts the 2016 Season

Earlier today we took a look at the ZIPS predictions from Dan Szymborski over at Fangraphs and showed what his system thought the Yankees would do in 2016. We also prefaced that post with the fact that Fangraphs, unlike Baseball Reference, had individual and unique content on their site and those ZIPS predictions were one of those posts we alluded to. This is an official Fangraphs prediction model for the 2016 season that focuses more on runs, run preventions and wins rather than fancy stats and analytics like the ZIPS system. How did the Yankees do in this one?

Fangraphs shows no regression and no improvement in the win column for the New York Yankees in 2016. According to the predictions the Bombers will repeat their 87-win season that landed them in the postseason in 2015 which will give the Yankees the fourth best record in all of baseball. The three teams that Fangraphs believes will have more wins than the Yankees are the Chicago Cubs, the Washington Nationals, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Yankees biggest division rivals, the Boston Red Sox (92 wins). Not the Toronto Blue Jays, not the Baltimore Orioles, not the Pittsburgh Pirates and not the St. Louis Cardinals.

Fangraphs predicts the Yankees will score 4.5 runs per game and allow 4.18 runs per game which are both downgraded from their 2015 totals of 4.72 RS/G and 4.31 RA/G. The Yankees had the second most runs scored in all of baseball in 2015 with Alex Rodriguez hitting 33 home runs and Mark Teixeira looking more like the 2009 version of himself than the 2010 and beyond version of himself so a slight regression should have been expected. The team also added Aroldis Chapman to the bullpen and will presumably have a full season of Luis Severino which should also explain why the slight downfall in runs allowed was also prevalent on the Fangraphs predictions.

The Yankees biggest upgrade though will likely come at the second base position. In 2015 the Yankees used six different second baseman including Stephen Drew, Robert Refsnyder, Brendan Ryan, Dustin Ackley and others and they combined to hit .245 with 65 RBI and 63 runs scored but in 2016 the team will likely use one second baseman for the most part, Starlin Castro. Castro alone hit 0265 with 69 RBI and 52 runs scored in 2015 and that was a down season for him that included a benching for defensive purposed and a position switch to second base. While at second base Castro hit .339 for the Chicago Cubs leading them to the National League Championship Series. In a snapshot the Yankees offense should get a huge boost at the position, finally.

The Fangraphs predictions are not 100% and truth be told they are usually a little low in most cases. The Kansas City Royals won 95 games last season and the World Series championship while Fangraphs predicted the team would have just 79 wins so take these predictions with a grain of salt. If the Yankees can match or exceed the 87-win total the website predicted I think many fans of the team would be happy with that, I have to think that I would personally.

For your reference here is the complete list for the AL East according to Fangraphs:

2016 AL East Standings (per FanGraphs projections)

1. Boston Red Sox (2015 record: 78-84)

2016 projection: 92-70 | 4.75 runs scored per game, 4.11 runs allowed

2. New York Yankees (2015 record: 87-75)

2016 projection: 87-75 | 4.50 runs scored per game, 4.18 runs allowed

3. Toronto Blue Jays (2015 record: 93-69)

2016 projection: 84-78 | 4.75 runs allowed per game, 4.57 runs allowed

4. Tampa Bay Rays (2015 record: 80-82)

2016 projection: 82-80 | 4.16 runs scored per game, 4.08 runs allowed

5. Baltimore Orioles (2015 record: 81-81)

2016 projection: 76-86 | 4.37 runs scored per game, 4.65 runs allowed

Grading the Yankees Offseason Thus Far

The New York Yankees headed into the offseason before the 2016 season with seemingly little money to work with and little roster flexibility to be seen. The Yankees, when you activated all the players on the 60 day disabled list, had 49 players and just 40 spots on their 40 man roster with just three free agents hitting the market. None of Chris Young, Chris Capuano or Stephen Drew played huge roles on the team in 2015, although Drew did play the most as the starting second baseman for much of the season, and none of them made a significant amount of money either. With that in mind and another year on the Yankees roster and aging players many fans were not too optimistic about this offseason, some even predicted a quiet offseason, but it has been anything but that.

Yankees GM Brian Cashman came out of the gates firing on all cylinders after the World Series announcing that New York was open for business and every single one of their cards were out on the table. While the team has gone more than a calendar year without signing a Major League free agent that hasn’t stopped the team from having a productive and busy offseason. The Yankees have added players via trades, they have designated players off the 40 man roster only to bring them back on new minor league deal’s and the team has stealthily added payroll and younger players that fit not only one mold but multiple molds. 

For the first time in a long time the Yankees stayed away from big names like David Price and Zack Greinke and instead added names like Aaron Hicks, Aroldis Chapman(who yes I realize is a big name) and Starlin Castro. All the while Cashman actually found value in a player like Brendan Ryan who he used in the deal with the Cubs and John Ryan Murphy who he traded to the Minnesota Twins. In the Chapman, and again yes I realize why but if any other GM took advantage many media outlets would be singing a different tune, Castro and Hicks deals the Yankees gave up relatively little in the grand scheme of things. Adam Warren was an asset to this team but on many other teams he is projected to be a 3^rd or 4^th starter at best and a dominant middle relief pitcher. Those tend to grow a dime a dozen across the league. 

The Yankees have also added a ton of depth in the Justin Wilson trade and with all the minor league deals and invitations to spring training they have pulled off thus far. The team is also in a position to rely heavily on their farm system once again in 2016 with Greg Bird, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez breathing down the necks of many aging veterans that are coming close to the end of their contracts. All this while keeping last year’s playoff team and their core for the most part intact. As long as the Yankees stay healthy and productive they can absolutely improve on their 87-win total from last season and they didn’t have to mortgage the now or the future to do it. 

I will fall short of giving Brian Cashman an “A” rating because I think the offense needed something else to take the pressure off of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira but there is nothing wrong with a solid “B+” in my opinion. 

Fangraphs Dan Szymborski’s Yankees ZIPS Predictions

I know I tend to reference Baseball Reference a lot on my articles because it’s my favorite resource for writing my articles but Fangraphs.com is a close second. What Fangraphs brings you that Baseball Reference does not, well besides two different sets of WAR’s between them, is that Fangraphs brings you unique content and Dan Szymborksi’s yearly ZIPS predictions. ZIPS is basically a glorified computer system that predicts how every team will do the following year and the ZIPS system has been extremely reliable over the years, how do the 2016 Yankees stack up as of today according to ZIPS? Well I went over to Fangraphs and I found out. 

I started with the starting pitching, the biggest question mark for the Yankees going forward, and added up a combined 10 zWAR (the higher the better). Masahiro Tanaka and Luis Severino will lead the charge for the Yankees at the top producing 3.0 zWAR each while Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi aren’t far behind with a 2.0 zWAR each. CC Sabathia produced a 0 zWAR which brought the overall number down. The 2015 version of the Yankees produced a 12.9 zWAR and their 10.0 zWAR would rank them 10^th overall in the American League (using 2015 numbers). 

The pitching is predicted to take a step back but that’s fine if the bullpen can pick them up, right? Especially with Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances anchoring the back end of the bullpen that is predicted to produce a 6.0 zWAR. Last season the Yankees bullpen produced a 5.3 zWAR which tied the Houston Astros for the second best total in the Major Leagues. Only the Baltimore Orioles produced a zWAR at or above 6.0 in 2015. 

One thing is for certain though, and I feel like this is something that Yogi Berra would have said, you can’t win a game if you don’t score any runs. The starters can exceed their 10.0 zWAR and the bullpen could put up another 10.0 zWAR but that means nothing if the offense falters and begins to show its age. The Yankees offense produced a 20.4 zWAR in 2015 behind the returns of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira but ZIPS predicts that another year on the roster will hurt the Yankees overall dropping them to a team total 19zWAR in 2016. This does not take into account potential ZIPS predictions for Greg Bird or Aaron Judge who may or may not get a chance to play in 2016. If they do play Judge is predicted to produce a 1.5 zWAR while Bird looks good for a 2.0 zWAR. Carlos Beltran is listed at a 0.0 zWAR right along with CC Sabathia.

Using ZIPS from around the league it looks like the Yankees will once again fall somewhere in the 80-90 win area with a shot at one of the two Wild Card spots in the American League. The season will depend on injuries and the effectiveness of their aging and high-priced stars, per the usual. Can Teixeira and Rodriguez hold up over one more season and can Beltran and Sabathia keep their heads above water as their careers come to a close. Can Jacoby Ellsbury bounce back and can Brett Gardner play at a major league level in the second half? These are all questions that ZIPS, or any advanced metric for that matter, cannot answer. We’ll all just have to stay tuned and find out for ourselves this season. 

The Last Yankees Bench Spot Battle Royal

The New York Yankees have added a ton of depth to the team and the infield in recent weeks after a few early offseason trades left the team a little thin at certain positions. After the trades of Jose Pirela to the San Diego Padres and Brendan Ryan to the Chicago Cubs the Yankees middle infield was especially a concern but Brian Cashman and company has added a slew of players on minor league deals and such that are now fighting to make a difference and win the last spot on the Yankees bench in a free-for-all battle royal this spring.

Pete Kozma was the first name to be added to the list of participants in the battle royal and has since been joined by the likes of Donovan Solano, Lane Adams, Robert Refsnyder and Ronald Torreyes before he was designated for assignment. So who wins the spot? Before you can answer that you have to address the Yankees current situation and their needs.

The outfield is completely stacked with Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Aaron Hicks and Dustin Ackley on the roster and Mason Williams, Slade Heathcott, Ben Gamel and Aaron Judge waiting in the wings while the catcher position seems solidified as well with some combination of Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez and Brian McCann. The infield is where the team may need some help though with obvious backup holes at third base and the shortstop position. As it stands right now Starlin Castro is the starting second baseman as well as the team’s backup at both positions leaving the options limited for Joe Girardi at this point.

Adams is a DH and outfielder so he seems unlikely, although his bat would look good in the Yankees lineup, while Refsnyder’s inability to play anywhere but second base may hurt his stock. You’re left essentially with Solano and Kozma who are defense first type players who carry little weight in the terms of offense. The one area that sets these two apart is the fact that Solano can play third base and the shortstop position as well as the outfield, all needs for the Yankees.

Solano has the win the job this spring, don’t get me wrong, but right now you would have to think that his name is at least written in pencil on Joe Girardi’s lineup card heading into spring training camp here in just about a month’s time. 

This Day In New York Yankees History 1/21: Joe D Misses the Hall

On this day in 1953 the Yankee Clipper Joe DiMaggio missed out on the Hall of Fame in his first try at Cooperstown. DiMaggio would have to wait until the 1955 season before 88.8% of the BBWAA added him to the ballot and inducted him into the hall. On this day Cardinal legend Dizzy Dean and Al Simmons were elected to the hall.

The Boring Winter Ahead: Watch the 2001 World Series Game Four HERE

Game 4 of the 2001 World Series between the New York Yankees and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The "Andrew Bailey" MiLB Deal for Greg Holland

The New York Yankees have never been afraid to take a chance on an injured or aging veteran pitcher in hopes of getting a little lightning in a bottle out of them. We've seen it many times and a few examples of this are the Aaron Small signing, the Bartolo Colon signing, the Freddy Garcia signing and others and New York most recently did it with former Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics closer Andrew Bailey. Bailey was signed with the thought that he would not pitch in the first season of his deal but would presumably be ready for the second year, why wouldn't that work with former Royals closer Greg Holland?

Holland will miss the entire 2016 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and will attempt his comeback during the 2017 season. Holland is a free agent currently and may be looking for one of those two year minor league deals we have been seeing over the years. Why can't the team that gives Holland that deal be the Yankees?

The Yankees love having a super bullpen and they had one in 2015 with Justin Wilson, Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller and look to have one in 2016 as well with the trade of Wilson and the acquisition of Aroldis Chapman. What about the 2017 season after Chapman presumably leaves via free agency? Holland could step into the 7th or 8th inning, eventually, for the Yankees while Miller slides back into the 9th inning role for New York.

Even with a growing tear in his right throwing elbow Holland had 32 saves as we entered September of 2015 after refusing to get an MRI or sit down during the season. Holland is a gamer and a champion and wanted to be a part of the first World Series championship team in Kansas City in 30 years. Would he be worth the wait? Absolutely, especially if he comes back from the Tommy John surgery throwing darts the way he did in 2015 and 2014.  Will the Yankees do it? Who knows, but if Holland is willing then they should.

Many Yankees Training in Dominican Republic

picture credit Bronx Pinstripes

One thing that I heard many times throughout the 2015 season was that the team seemed to have an absolute ton of chemistry. The players seemed to enjoy each other's company and they seemed to have fun, even when they were losing. This team is going to have quite a few new faces, Aaron Hicks and Starlin Castro for example, so you have to wonder if the chemistry will be there again in 2016. Well Dellin Betances and a few key Yankees are working on team chemistry already while getting their early work in.

According to reports Betances is down in the Dominican Republic with a few Yankees prospects and players already preparing for the 2016 season. Joining Betances is Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino, Domingo Acevedo and Jorge Mateo and they are all at the team's baseball academy in Boca Chica, Dominican Republic.

Truth be told this is not the biggest news nugget but it's still interesting to see that three or four major players on the team next season are already working towards next season and more importantly working together. Here we go boys, spring training is right around the corner.

Six Possible Destinations for Yoenis Cespedes

Just as I was about to head off to bed on Monday night my phone rang with news of the Justin Upton signing. Upton signed a huge six-year deal with the Detroit Tigers to add another potent bat to an already potent lineup leaving one main cog standing alone at the top of the free agent heap, Yoenis Cespedes. I predicted that once Chris Davis signed the outfield market would get moving and it was just days after the DH re-signed with the orioles that the Tigers came calling after Upton. I also predicted that not long after Upton signed that Cespedes would find himself a new home as well so here are six possible destinations for Cespedes in my eyes right now.

The Chicago White Sox are the team I always come to first when thinking of possible destinations for Cespedes. They have a strong Cuban presence already on the team and a strong history of signing Cuban-born players and they have a need for another power bat in the middle of their lineup. Chicago was last in the AL in runs scored in 2015 but I bet they wouldn’t be in 2016 if they had Cespedes protecting first baseman Jose Abreu.

The Houston Astros are a team that is mainly homegrown and one that could benefit from a big draw as far as ticket holders go. Cespedes could be that big guy and would be especially interesting to the Astros since he is not tied to any draft pick compensation.

The St. Louis Cardinals have tried to spend big this winter and they specifically tried to spend big on outfielders, namely Jason Heyward, with no success. The Cardinals could use a replacement bat and a right fielder, both of which Cespedes could be.

The Atlanta Braves have become one of the most backwards organizations that I have seen since the 1997-1998 Florida Marlins. It would be right up their alley to sell off any and every major piece they had not named Freddie Freeman (he was smart enough to tie himself down beforehand) and then go out and sign a guy like Cespedes and push him as a “new stadium draw” to the fans.

The New York Mets would love to have Cespedes back, he did his best work as a Major Leaguer in Queens in my opinion. The problem here is the Mets don’t want to go beyond say a three-year deal and Cespedes will likely want more than that. If every team is only offering a three-year deal though, which is extremely unlikely, then Cespedes would likely return to the Big Apple.

The Miami Marlins are already pushing Marcell Ozuna in trades and the team has not been afraid of the major signing, they recently just signed Wei-Yin Chen and Dee Gordon to fat contracts, but most importantly the team is as unpredictable as they come. You never know what they are going to do. One thing is for certain though the Marlins are going to have to have support from the community and the fans to justify not trading away these high-priced players or before signing any more after posting the 28^th best attendance record in Major League Baseball in 2015 out of the 30 teams.

The final team is the Toronto Blue Jays. How stupid, stupid meant in a good way, would the Toronto Blue Jays offense be if they added Cespedes over Michael Saunders in left field? I don’t even want to think about it. Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki, Edwin Encarnacion and Yoenis Cespedes hitting in some combination 2-5 in the batting order is disgusting, in a good way for Jays fans.

There you have it. The way things are going for me lately Cespedes will likely sign before this post even goes live, but that’s okay. As long as he signs with one of the teams I predicted above I will still take solace in being right, not first…. The key to journalism. 

Chris Davis & Fantasy Baseball

The last time a member of the Baltimore Orioles did not lead Major League Baseball in home runs was the 2012 season. In 2012 Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers hit 44 home runs while Chris Davis led the league with 53 home runs in 2013. In 2014 it was Nelson Cruz who led the league in home runs for the Orioles with 40 dingers while Davis led the league in home runs once again in 2015 when he finished the season killing the New York Yankees hitting his 45th, 46th and 47th home runs of the season. Davis hit free agency following the 2015 campaign and ultimately returned to Baltimore on a huge seven year deal giving the Orioles a legit home run threat in their lineup but what will it do for your fantasy team?

Davis is a legit first round pick in my opinion. He has 50 home run power and especially has 50 home run power inside of Oriole Park in Camden Yards. At Camden Yards Davis is a career .270/.352/.575 hitter with 159 home runs in four seasons in Baltimore and is now entering the peak of his prime at 30-years old. Could these numbers conceivably get better in 2016?

Davis should have plenty of protection in this year's Orioles lineup as Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado and Matt Wieters and Davis adds versatility to your fantasy team as he is eligible at first base and the outfield. Davis is still going to hit around .250 and he's still going to strike out 200+ times a season but the 40-50 home runs are damn near impossible to find right now. For that alone I would take Davis early if you can, you can get your batting average elsewhere. You can't get home runs elsewhere. Get Davis if you can.