Should the Yankees Sign Gio Gonzalez?

The New York Yankees lost Luis Severino for at least a few weeks to open the season after the right-hander was scratched from his spring debut with shoulder discomfort. The diagnosis was inflammation in his right rotator cuff and the cure, the Yankees hope anyway, is two weeks of rest and some anti-inflammatories. Immediately following the news, the focus shifted to whether or not the Yankees should add another pitcher, namely either Dallas Keuchel or Gio Gonzalez. While I think many are well-versed in what Keuchel brings to the table already, I think most don’t truly know what the team would be acquiring if they were to go out and sign Gonzalez on a one-year (presumably) deal. How would Gio pitch in the American League after splitting time with Washington and Milwaukee in 2018? The stats suggest that he may not fare so well for the Bronx Bombers…

First, let’s look at Gio’s career stats inside of Yankee Stadium. Gio has pitched three games inside Yankee Stadium III, all three of them starts spanning 17.2 innings pitched. Combined, Gio has allowed 13 hits and nine runs to the Yankees, all of them earned, on one home run with nine walks. Gio did strike out 16 batters for almost a batter struck out per innings pitched, but a WHIP of 1.245 and a 4.58 ERA leaves much to be desires. Sure, the sample size is small, but the sample size expands a bit when you look at what he has done in other key American League ballparks.

I	Split	W	L	ERA	G	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	SO9
	LAA-Angel Stad	3	2	4.05	6	33.1	29	16	15	3	13	30	1.260	8.1
	DET-Comerica Pk	0	2	32.40	2	5.0	16	19	18	5	3	4	3.800	7.2
	CHW-US Cellular	0	3	3.98	3	20.1	16	10	9	1	9	23	1.230	10.2
	HOU-MinuteMaidPk	1	0	3.60	2	15.0	14	6	6	0	4	16	1.200	9.6
	BOS-Fenway Pk	3	0	5.08	5	28.1	28	17	16	4	15	29	1.518	9.2
	MIN-Metrodome	0	1	21.00	1	3.0	8	7	7	1	3	5	3.667	15.0
	CLE-Progressive	4	0	1.13	6	40.0	28	6	5	2	16	39	1.100	8.8
	OAK-O.co Colis	21	15	3.73	47	277.1	244	125	115	31	138	256	1.377	8.3
	BAL-Camden Yards	2	3	3.15	7	45.2	47	18	16	5	17	31	1.401	6.1
	KCR-KauffmanStad	3	2	6.14	6	29.1	34	21	20	6	16	17	1.705	5.2
	SEA-Safeco Fld	2	2	3.48	8	44.0	41	19	17	1	27	52	1.545	10.6
	TOR-Rogers Ctr	1	3	5.70	4	23.2	20	15	15	3	11	19	1.310	7.2
	MIN-Target Field	1	1	1.50	2	12.0	7	4	2	0	6	11	1.083	8.3
	TEX-Rangers Bpk	1	2	4.29	5	21.0	26	14	10	5	7	18	1.571	7.7
	TBR-TropicanaFld	0	2	16.00	4	9.0	18	16	16	1	13	11	3.444	11.0
	NYY-Yankee Stad3	1	1	4.58	3	17.2	13	9	9	1	9	16	1.245	8.2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Now, you must remember that Gio did much of his damage in the American League as a much younger pitcher with the Oakland Athletics. Whether that works for him or against him at this point in his career remains to be seen, but it is worth mentioning that Gio’s first four seasons in Oakland resulted in a 38-32 record with a 3.93 ERA, 4.06 FIP, and a 1.410 WHIP. Meanwhile, in the National League, Gio posted a total of 89 wins and 65 losses with a 3.59 ERA, 3.45 FIP and 1.276 WHIP with the Nationals and Brewers. Gio was a much better pitcher in the National League and that should scare you if you are a fan of the New York Yankees signing him.

I’m not saying that Gio would get lit up in the Bronx, although he may, but I am not saying that he would be that big of an upgrade either. Remember, Gio has missed all of spring training up to date and that’s not nothing. At this point would Gio, at least until Severino returns anyway, be that much better than what the Yankees have in Jonathan Loaisiga and Domingo German? Honestly, I think not. If Severino were having a much more serious injury that we could pinpoint RIGHT NOW, like a Tommy John surgery for instance, then the argument could be made that Gio would be better over the course of a season than what the Yankees already have, but right now we just can’t do that. I wouldn’t feel comfortable even suggesting that.

In closing, stick with what we have and ride the wave. If the Severino shoulder injury becomes more serious, then you react, but right now I feel like it would be foolish to go out and get a guy like Gio, Keuchel, or anyone outside of the organization for what could amount to just a couple missed starts. Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think that I am.

What say you?

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference

Predicting the 2019 Season: The Standings

The 2018 saw three teams in the American League win at least 100 games, but on the flip side of that coin we also watched as teams like the Kansas City Royals, Baltimore Orioles, and others struggled mightily to win games all season long. To have just one team win 100 games is not the most common thing in the league in recent memory, so to have three is downright special. Will we see a repeat of that here in 2019? Only time will tell, but I will do my best to predict whether they will, or they won’t, as well as what teams will make the postseason and win their respective divisions as well. Bookmark this. I have a feeling by the end of the season I will be eating a whole lot of crow with these predictions, as usual.

American League East

New York Yankees: 96-66

Boston Red Sox: 92-70

Tampa Bay Rays: 87-75

Toronto Blue Jays: 66-96

Baltimore Orioles: 59-103

I know, most will call me a homer for picking the New York Yankees to win the division. Guess what? I don’t care. Maybe I am a homer, or maybe I can just see better than most that the team has done a lot to improve themselves here in 2019, especially on the pitching side of things. Boston will undoubtedly take a step back with that bullpen and the loss of Craig Kimbrel while you cannot expect Ian Snell to repeat what he did in 2018. Not to say that the Red Sox or Rays are necessarily worse teams in 2019, but an awful lot has to go right for a team to win 90 games, 100 games, or even 108 games. There’s a certain luck factor there and that historically just doesn’t translate from year-to-year.

American League Central

Cleveland Indians: 88-76

Minnesota Twins: 82-80

Chicago White Sox: 74-88

Detroit Tigers: 72-90

Kansas City Royals: 70-92

I don’t think there are any real surprises here other than maybe the win total of the Minnesota Twins. I know the Twins lost one of their better and more consistent starters, when healthy, in Ervin Santana, but I really like the young core of guys that the Twins have. Extending a couple of their guys allows them to focus solely on the game, and that generally translates into production on the field. I think they will at least be in the conversation for the second Wild Card this season, assuming the health of their key contributors.

American League West

Oakland Athletics: 91-71

Houston Astros: 90-72

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 81-81

Texas Rangers: 73-89

Seattle Mariners: 70-92

Kill me if you want to, but the Houston Astros lost a whole lot of pitching this offseason, Justin Verlander has to age eventually, and the Oakland Athletics are just a damn good team. I could end up with egg on my face by the end of the season, but these are my predictions regardless. Also, I love how Seattle “reinvented their roster” rather than rebuild the team. Same difference, at least according to the above.

Wild Card #1 – Boston Red Sox

Wild Card #2 – Houston Astros

National League East

Atlanta Braves: 93-69

Washington Nationals: 91-71

Philadelphia Phillies: 88-74

New York Mets: 80-82

Miami Marlins: 60-102

I truly believe that the Atlanta Braves are a much better team than they were in 2018, and here’s why. Josh Donaldson, if healthy and we all presume he will be, is a monster on a one-year deal and will provide a legitimate bat in the middle of that lineup. I also think that Brian McCann, even a shell of his former self, will help more than can be expressed or quantified with the Braves pitching staff. I expect Washington to be in the thick of things again and better than they were last year, maybe even in spite of Bryce Harper, while the Phillies “stupid money” offseason plan will fall just short.

National League Central

Milwaukee Brewers: 91-71

St. Louis Cardinals: 87-75

Chicago Cubs: 85-77

Cincinnati Reds: 81-81

Pittsburgh Pirates: 80-82

I think the NL Central will be the most competitive division in all of Major League Baseball in 2019. The Brewers should be the cream of the crop, but the Cardinals and Cubs should be right on their tails for much of the season. The Reds added a ton of pitching to go with their young group of players while the Pirates, while still rebuilding, still have great pitching with Chris Archer and others.

National League West

Los Angeles Dodgers: 97-65

Colorado Rockies: 89-73

San Diego Padres: 80-82

San Francisco Giants: 75-87

Arizona Diamondbacks: 73-89

No, I am not jumping on the Manny Machado bandwagon and donning him the reason the Padres improve by 16 games in 2019. He will help, sure, but the Padres have a great young team that is absolutely stacked with talent. That, alongside Machado, will be the reason the Padres make a real stride this season. I expect Eric Hosmer to be better as well, compared to what he produced in Kansas City to what he did in San Diego he almost has to improve you would think, which should help the Padres win more games in what should be a weaker division overall in 2019.

Wild Card #1 - Washington Nationals

Wild Card #2 - Colorado Rockies

What will happen in the postseason? You have to tune in tomorrow to find out!

TGP Trivia and Fact of the Day for March 6th, 2019

Good morning Yankees family!!

What manager of the New York Yankees was the first in baseball history to win World Series titles in each of his first two seasons as a manager?

Highlight below to get your answer, but leave your guesses in the comments section below before you reveal the answer.



Ralph Houk, who won the World Series in 1961 and 1962



And a special good morning to my amazing wife, Kari. I love you more than I could ever put into words.

Predicting the Yankees 2019 Season

The New York Yankees enter the 2019 season with expectations higher than the 2018 season, and maybe expectations that cannot simply be put into words. This is the season for the Bronx Bombers to win the World Series and make a deep run into the postseason. We have been told that the team was going to get under the luxury tax threshold, and we all watched as a fan base as the team passed on marque free agents like Max Scherzer, Manny Machado, Bryce Harper and others. We watched as the Boston Red Sox won World Series championships and we watched as the game as we once knew it passed us by. Well, the time for excuses is over in my opinion. The Yankees are no longer “re-tooling” or rebuilding, no, they are in win-now mode. Will that translate onto the field here in 2019? That we will have to stay tuned for, but this is what I see happening this year for the Yankees.

I think the Yankees will surprise a lot of people this season, even though they shouldn’t. I think the first base situation will be much improved over the 2018 version, whether that be with Luke Voit as the incumbent or with Greg Bird finally putting it all together for a full season, and I think the catching situation will be much better as well. I don’t want to speculate on the health of Gary’s shoulder last season and guess at how it affected his ability to hit, nor do I want to speculate on the health of his groin/hamstring muscles and how they affected his ability to run down the line and block pitches behind the plate. Instead, I’ll just focus on the fact that throughout his professional career he has shown an ability to defend much better, hit much better, and just overall be a much better overall player. I don’t think the league figured him out and I don’t think he is just lazy, those are just lazy excuses to make for a young player that struggles for the first time. Gary will be better, and the fans need to be too.

The Yankees pitching should be much better in 2019. Severino is changing things up to battle him tipping pitches and he is also working on not tiring out in the second half of the season. It happens with young pitchers, especially after throwing 200 innings for the first time in their careers. They tire out. Severino will be fine and should be much better in the second half of 2019. James Paxton is essentially replacing Sonny Gray and as long as Paxton can pitch inside Yankee Stadium, where Gray could not, he should do just fine. Lefties just pitch better inside Yankee Stadium because of the narrative that they can neutralize left-handed hitting and eliminate the short porch in right field. A full season of Happ, even if he doesn’t pitch like the 7-0 madman that he was with the Yankees in the second half last season, will only benefit the Yankees while many forget that we should also see the return of Jordan Montgomery at some point as well. Tanaka will be Tanaka and CC will be CC but look out for Jonathan Loaisiga. If this kid can stay healthy, he could be a rotation mainstay as soon as the 2019 season, barring an injury to one of the Yankees current starters.

The bullpen will be the bullpen. There’s nothing I can say that hasn’t already been said a million times. On paper it should be amazing and a force to be reckoned with. The bench will likely be Tyler Wade, who can play everywhere, Austin Romine as the backup catcher, and maybe Clint Frazier? I know the team has all but said that he would start the season in Triple-A, but until that happens, I am in the camp that just doesn’t buy it. Who is the fourth outfielder? Stanton? Something isn’t adding up.

Right around the time of the year where every team is looking to add an impact bat or arm the Yankees will do both with the presumed returns of both Didi Gregorius and Jordan Montgomery from Tommy John surgery. That's nothing to shake a stick at, and it doesn't cost the Yankees a thing. 

In closing, the Yankees will be a much-improved team in 2019. I truly believe they will win the division, and not just because I am a Yankees fan. Check my previous posts. I have picked the Yankees to place second, win the first Wild Card, win the second Wild Card, and even miss the playoffs completely in my time with the blog. I truly believe in this team, now they just have to go out there and make me look like a genius and win a World Series championship.

Tune in tomorrow for my predictions for the rest of the league and their standings for the 2019 season!

TGP Trivia and Fact of the Day for March 5th, 2019

Good morning Yankees family!

The Yankees made one of their finest trades in the franchise's history on March 22, 1972, sending Danny Cater and a player to be named later (Mario Guerrero in June) to the Boston Red Sox for Sparkly Lyle. Lyle starred in the Yankees bullpen and won the 1977 American League Cy Young Award while, and not to be disrespectful by any means, I've never even heard of Danny Cater or Mario Guerrero.

The best trade that I ever made in my personal life was when I traded anger, depression, and unhappiness for the one thing in the world that has made me happier than I could have ever dreamed... my wife, Kari. I love you and I am forever grateful for you as well!

Final Update: Yankees Salary Situation for the 2019 Season

We have done these types of posts multiple times this winter and throughout the spring, but this time may be the FINAL time this offseason that we take an in-depth look at the payroll. All the major contracts have been signed and all the players that are going to be extended likely have been by now, so let’s take a look at the Yankees payroll heading into the 2019 season.

Guaranteed 2019 Contracts (AAV in Parenthesis)

Giancarlo Stanton - $26 million ($25 million)

13-year deal worth $325 million with a full no-trade clause, an opt-out clause after the 2020 season, and a 2028 team option worth $25 million with a $10 million buyout. Stanton also receives $50,000 for each All-Star appearance, Silver Slugger Award and Gold Glove Award. Stanton also receives $100,000 per MVP Award and $500,000 for each World Series MVP Award achieved throughout the contract. If Stanton does not opt-out after the 2020 season the Miami Marlins will retain $30 million in Stanton’s salary.

Masahiro Tanaka - $22 million ($22,142,857 million)

Seven-year deal worth $155 million with a full no-trade clause.

Jacoby Ellsbury - $21,142,857 million ($21,857,143 million)

Seven-year deal worth $153 million including a team option for the 2021 season worth $21 million and a $5 million buyout. Ellsbury also contains a full no-trade clause written into his contract.

Aroldis Chapman - $15 million plus $2.2 million signing bonus ($17.2 million)

Five-year deal worth $86 million including an $11 million signing bonus paid in equal increments ($2.2 million) annually throughout the length of the contract. Chapman has an opt-out clause after the 2019 season and a full no-trade clause through 2019. Chapman has a modified no-trade clause for 2020 and 2021 if he does not exercise his opt-our clause that keeps him from being traded to a West Coast team.

JA Happ - $17 million ($17 million)

Two-year deal worth $34 million including a vesting option for 2021 worth $17 million if Happ pitches 165 IP or makes 27 starts in 2020.

Zack Britton - $13 million ($13 million)

Three-year deal with an opt-out after two years if the fourth-year team option and player option is not picked up by the club after the second year. The contract could be anywhere from two-years and $26 million, three-years and $39 million if the fourth-year option is declined but Britton does not opt-out, to four-years and $53 million. Britton will also receive $1 million if he is traded any time throughout the contract.

DJ LeMahieu - $12 million ($12 million)

Two-year deal worth $24 million

Adam Ottavino - $9 million ($9 million)

Three-year deal worth $27 million including a $3 million signing bonus.

CC Sabathia - $8 million ($8 million)

One-year deal worth $8 million

Brett Gardner - $7.5 million ($7.5 million)

One-year deal worth $7.5 million

Troy Tulowitzki - $555K ($555K)

One-year deal worth $555K (remaining salary paid by the Toronto Blue Jays) with a full no-trade clause.

Aaron Hicks - $6 million ($10 million)

Seven-year deal worth $70 million with a $2 million signing bonus spread out in equal increments over the next seven seasons with a club option for the 2026 season worth $12.5 million and a $1 million buyout. Hicks also has a trade assignment bonus of $1 million if he is traded and does not have a no-trade clause written into his contract.

Luis Severino - $4 million ($10 million)

Four-year deal worth $40 million with a $2 million signing bonus and a club option for a fifth year worth $23 million with a $2.75 million buyout.

Total: $163,397,857 million ($173,255,000 million)

All salaries via Spotrac.com

Pre-Arbitration 2019 Salaries – Valued at $555K each (waiver options in parenthesis)

Albert Abreu (3)

Domingo Acevedo (3)

Chance Adams (3)

Miguel Andujar (2)

Luis Cessa

Thairo Estrada (3)

Clint Frazier

Domingo German

Chad Green

Joe Harvey

Ben Heller

Kyle Higashioka

Jonathan Holder (2)

Aaron Judge

Jonathan Loaisiga (3)

Jordan Montgomery

Gary Sanchez

Stephen Tarpley

Gleyber Torres (3)

Luke Voit (3)

Tyler Wade

Total: $11,655,000 million (21 players x $555K each)

Without waiver options for the Minor Leagues the players without a waiver option by their name cannot be sent down to Triple-A without first clearing waivers and cannot be sent down without their consent.

All courtesy of Spotrac.com

2019 Contracts for Arbitration-Eligible Players (MLBTR Projections in Parenthesis)

Dellin Betances (Arb 3) – $7.125 million ($6.4 million)

Greg Bird (Arb 1) – $1.2 million ($1.5 million)

Didi Gregorius (Arb 4) – $11.75 million ($12.4 million)

Tommy Kahnle (Arb 2) – $1,387,500 million ($1.5 million)

James Paxton (Arb 3) – $8.575 million ($9.0 million)

Austin Romine (Arb 3) – $1.8 million ($2.0 million)

Total: $31,837,500 ($32.8 million)

Retained Salaries per Spotrac

Brett Gardner – $2 million buyout of his 2019 team option

Alex Rodriguez – $4 million in deferred salary

Total: $6 million

The Final Tallies

2019 Total Yankees Salaries As of 1/12/19

$229,890,357 million

2019 Luxury Tax Threshold According to MLB.com

$206 million

According to Fangraphs and Spotrac you have to include an extra $17 million to your luxury tax to cover medical expenses, travel expenses, minor league contracts etc. according to the Collective Bargaining agreement. Either way, the Yankees are over the luxury tax threshold. 

For teams that are exceeding the luxury tax threshold for the first time, which the Yankees are after resetting their penalties by getting under the luxury tax threshold last season, the penalty for every dollar spent over the $206 million luxury tax threshold is a 20% penalty up to $20 million. To use even numbers, for every $10 million the Yankees go over the threshold the team must pay an extra $2 million to the league in penalties, obviously meaning $20 million would force the team to incur $4 million in penalties. If the team exceeds $20 million over the cap, but spends under $40 million over the luxury tax threshold, the penalty grows to 32% after a 12% surtax. Exceeding $40 million over the cap penalizes a team 62.5% (42.5% surtax on top of initial 20% tax) on every dollar as well as costing the team 10 places in the Rule 4 MLB Draft. The top six picks are protected, but a team with a 7^th overall pick or later would see their highest selection in the MLB First Year Players Draft moved back 10 places. If your team falls in the top six of the MLB Draft, which the Yankees do not, they would see their second highest pick in the draft moved back by 10 places instead.

Estimated Yankees tax bill for 2019 - $3,678,500

#CHEAP

TGP Trivia and Fact of the Day for March 4th, 2019

Good morning Yankees family. Monday... yuck!

Babe Ruth won 10 home runs crowns as a member of the New York Yankees. The Sultan of Swat, right? But what player has the second most home run titles in club history?

Highlight below for your answer, but leave your guesses in the comments section below first!



Mickey Mantle, who has four. 



Even on a Monday morning I still love you so very much, my amazing wife Kari! And a very special good morning to my son, Jacob. You turn 15-years old today, and this is your day. Enjoy your day buddy, I love you!