Wednesday, September 16, 2015

What To Do With Ivan Nova This Offseason


The New York Yankees potentially face a good problem to have this offseason, possibly the best problem to have in Major League Baseball, where the team may have way too much pitching and not enough spots to give them all innings. The Yankees surprisingly could have a relatively young staff in 2016 with Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda leading the way, Luis Severino pitching in his first full MLB season and Nathan Eovaldi looking to build on his 14-win season in his age 26 season. All that youth is impressive and that's before you mention Adam Warren and Bryan Mitchell who will also be fighting for a spot with the grizzly veteran CC Sabathia. Oh yeah, there is also Ivan Nova who will be in the second year removed from Tommy John surgery... what should the Yankees do with him?

The Curious Case of Ivan Nova, another year and another sequel for the New York Yankees. At times Nova looks like the pitcher that once won 16 games for the team and at times looks to be a #2 or #2 starter if he ever figures out his control issues. At other times, and sometimes from inning to inning, Nova looks like he's a fifth starter in the Major Leagues and the obvious choice to be traded or non-tendered before the December non-tender deadline this winter.

Nova faces arbitration for the final time in 2016 before becoming a free agent before the 2017 season and for that reason he could be the loser of the numbers game in the Bronx. Nova, despite all his struggles with his consistency and his control, is too good to merely let go for nothing so the only option in my opinion is a trade. Yankees GM Brian Cashman has shown a willingness to trade away from his stock of Major League talent, which was evident when Martin Prado and David Phelps were sent to Miami while Shane Greene was sent to Detroit for Didi Gregorius in a three-year deal, and he may do that again this winter with Nova. Obviously Nova isn't going to fetch much by himself but including him in a similar deal that brought Eovaldi and Garrett Jones to New York wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities.

In my opinion Tanaka, Pineda, Severino and Eovaldi are virtual locks for the starting rotation leaving Nova, Sabathia, Warren and Mitchell fighting for the fifth spot in a perfect world that see's all these pitchers still on the roster and healthy on the final day of Spring Training 2016. If the team can package someone with Nova for a long-term second baseman then I think the team should at least explore that avenue. If not Nova would make a great asset to the team in his final year of team control in the Bronx. It's really a win-win situation for the New York Yankees here.


42 comments:

  1. I never thought Nova was a front line pitcher even after his 16 win season. Mitchell to me has shown his ability to crap his pants since being hit in the face and though he throws hard his stuff doesn't translate to front line pitcher. The problem is that the Yankees have numerous number 4 and 5 starters and not much at the top of the rotation. I would rather see Warren in the starting rotation and put Nova as the long man. My rotation would be Tanaka, Warren, Pineda, Severino and the Water Pistol as my number 5 and Nova in the pen along with CC. I think you under value Warren as he would be my number 2 starter. I'm ok packaging Nova and Sanchez for a good second baseman.

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    1. I can't tell if you're merely looking for a disagreement or you truly believe Warren is a #2 starter but I'll take the bait anyway. He's never projected as a #2 and never projected anywhere above a #4 or a #3 tops. He's good, he's consistent but he's not a #2.

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  2. I am not baiting you at all. I am looking at the consistency of his work of the course of this season and he was the best starter at the time he was pulled out. Just because someone projects you to be something doesn't mean you are or aren't. I would take him now over every Yankee starter except Tanaka. Burch we never agree so why start now? I am ok with that

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    1. I just expect more out of my #2 starter than 5 or 6 IP (which is about what he was throwing on average per start earlier this season). Especially this day in MLB when teams, good teams, are going with duo-aces a la Greinke and Kershaw. Pineda, inefficiency and inconsistency and all, is more of a #2 than Warren is in my opinion.

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  3. Mitchell has the stuff/pitches to be a good #3/4. He has to have better C&C of his pitches. He will go out there and beat them up in one inning and the next...zip. That is something he has to learn, just as The WP has had to do, both need more refinement to be mainstays in the rotation.
    Warren can be a good starter also as for Nova, I am not a big backer of him...not to say he many not become better.
    Tank, Servo, Pineda, WP, Mitchell/Warren my starters!

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    1. He hasn't been the same since being hit in the face. I can remember playing High School baseball and getting hit in the face while playing third base. I was afraid of the ball, even the routine ones, for quite a while and it affected everything I did in the field.

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  4. This is very depressing, we are HOPING to win with Drew at 2nd base, 38-year-old right fielder (no defence) and a 40-year-old DH. Granted, A-Rod is doing much better than most thought he would ( I was all in on him) talent is talent but even that has to come to an end. Beltran is hitting much better but now we have Ells on the downhill slide...not for long, I hope.
    The pitching has been spotty to say the least, CC had been a Black Hole but, is becoming what he has to be...although we do have better! Warren/Servo and Mitchell are still a work in progress...meaning they are not what they could be, YET!

    What is you guys opinion?

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    1. I think Girardi is catching on. Starting Ryan more, starting Ackley the other night. Even letting Pirela get into games. Still no Refsnyder though.

      His refusal to move Ellsbury out of the leadoff spot is what is going to kill this team.

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    2. I think with Refsy it is a; "See, keep your mouth shut, do you job and you too could be out there playing...grow-up!" Lesson learned? Who knows but, next spring will tell the tail.

      Joe did the same with Jeter all last year, one should be moved and one should have been moved. Why not try Brett as #1 and Pirela at #2 or better yet Refsy in the #2 spot...both right handed.

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    3. Refsnyder did himself no favors. He didn't push the issue. I think his .229 batting average in the second half of the season spoke more than his "attitude."

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    4. Really Daniel? It had something to do with it, but his attitude may have had something to do with his play also...maybe?
      If it did play into his play, I don't want anything to do with him...trade him! His Ego overloaded his ass. Attitude problems don't just go away, they are the person.

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    5. He didn't push the issue because he batted .229 after he got sent down... which was less than Drew.

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  5. I have to disagree with you and Burch pertaining to Warren. The guy has had is string pulled more than Trump has his hair combed over. The guy has clearly shown he is more consistent then every starter the both of you mentioned except maybe Tanaka. Servo could be a 1 or 2 but still learning. Pineda and the WP are inconsistent and as I have said numerous times the WP is a fluke as his numbers don't reflect his win loss record. Sorry guys I believe Warren has pitched as a number two in my opinion

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    1. I like Warren but, he has a habit of fading near the end of the year. 170+/- innings and he becomes real hittable. As you noted, he has been jerked around a lot this year so he may be a little wore out. I want him or whoever is in the rotation to go the year not just part of it. I may give him the spot over Mitchell because of consistency.
      I can live with that.

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    2. That's normal as you build up a pitcher though, especially for one that has bounced back between the bullpen and the rotation.

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  6. You mean he wears down like Gardner every year lol. Warren before he was taken out of the rotation was the most consistent starter on the staff, have you guys forgotten that?

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    1. No one has forgotten that, nor did I argue that. I mentioned that he was not going deep enough into games to be considered a #2. You want to call him a #3 I'll agree all day long. Even his peripherals don't call him a #2.

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    2. OK Burch who is a number two on this team?

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    3. The team doesn't have a true number two if you're using the peripherals AND the innings pitched per start criteria. Closest to it is Severino

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  7. Severino can't be considered a number two as of now as the data is inconclusive. The pitcher that was the most consistent starter until having his chain pulled numerous times was Warren. Is he a number two in theory, probably not but theory doesn't come into play when it has to do with pitchers or athletes for that matter.

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    1. Excluding Warren, who would you call a #2 in the league?

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  8. There is no number two on this team at the present time. I'm looking at Warren as he was the most consistent pitcher on that staff until recently with Tanaka. Pineda isn't anything to write home about, CC is done and you already know my thoughts on the water pistol. Severino could be a 1/2 but he hasn't had enough starts to say anything except that the goods are there but he has to do it more than 6 games. This is what happens when you can't spend any money on something that is more than a happy meal in price and I'm not impressed with any of the other young pitchers whether they are starters or relievers. Not sold on Mitchell at all even before the injury. Throwing hard doesn't always equate to a good pitcher.

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    1. Let me ask again. Excluding Warren, who would you call a #2 IN THE LEAGUE?

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    2. Me thinks you guys have forgotten how the game is played in this day and age!
      Nobody goes 7+ innings anymore. Unless you want to count the #1 pitchers out there as #2s only Keuchel (Huston) is over 7 innings per a start...off the top of my head, there may be one or so more but I can't think of them.
      The starters go 100+/- pitches and out, which makes it a 5/6 inning game for them.
      So, with the Yankees the Number 2 pitcher is Evo...I think!

      The old timers would beat the hell out of most of these guys, they all (the good ones) went over 7 innings...most of the time.

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    3. Me think you are losing it Reed. Eovaldi is not a number two on his best days. You're taking into account his win loss record and nothing else. The guy at his best is a five and Burch Warren is better than the water pistol and I believe you have it as the WP is your number 4 and Warren the 5

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    4. Not really Ken, although I forgot to count in Pineda...so yes Evo and CC are tied for the #3 starter. Both have a 5.7 innings per game.
      One must consider the upside of pitchers over the innings pitched in this day and age.
      Tank, Pineda, Evo are the top pitchers we have now...IF one goes by innings pitched.

      Going by the stuff they have and may have (Evo) I still think those three could go more innings IF pushed. Problem is, the first two are injury prone, so they will very seldom go over 6 innings (with pitch counts) whereas Evo (IF) he can improve his K.O. pitch or find one he could became the #3 pitcher or #4 depending on how Severino and Warren go. We also have Mitchell in the mix, along with CC but it is a good thing to have that many pitchers.

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    5. Mitchell isn't ready and I would be surprised if the kid saw the field again this year in a meaningful situation. WP as I have said and believe in my heart is Aaron Small which to me means that he won a great deal more games than he not only deserved but should have won

      I'm a broken record but consistent that this guy throws hard but straight and isn't the bill of goods we are shown. Has he improved...yes but by no means a number 2 or 3 or 4. No way. 5 yes but there is no way WP is better than Warren.

      Warren was our best pitcher when he got shafted again. You guys continue to have amnesia with that. This staff needs a true 1 or 1A which we won't get.

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    1. You said Warren is your #2 and Collin McHugh is a number two. Should I even bother comparing their stats to prove my point or would it be wasting my breathe?

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    2. Burch your comparing apples to oranges because Warren was moved in and out and in the rotation. You asked for a number two I gave it to you. Again you fail to realize who your best pitcher was before he was sent to the PEN.

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    3. I'm going to be a nice guy and settle this argument for you guys. There is no such thing as a "number 2". A number 2 only applies to a team that has a number 1. Which is less than half the teams in baseball. So if less than half the teams in baseball have a number 1, then only half those teams even have a number 2. The only team that has a true number 1 and number 2 is the Dodgers. But aren't those guys both number 1's? Hmmmm, food for thought.

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    4. Both Dodgers studs are numbers ones in my eyes and both are proven. We can't say that about Tanaka. His consistency is what affects his status as a number true number one

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    5. The good thing is you can compare his first half as a starter, he wasn't moved in and out then. His numbers still don't touch McHugh's in the same time span. That's what you fail to realize, you called Warren your #2... not me.

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    6. I agree with Hans, and said that somewhere in this crazy thread. The new meta in this era is to have a two-headed monster. Kershaw and Greinke are 1 and 1A

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    7. Warren is pitching to a 3.33 era, tell me Burch who the next closest starter is on the Yankees?

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    8. I already did when you asked me who I thought the #2 on the staff was, Luis Severino. He's leading the staff in team ERA last I checked. Sure it's a small sample size.

      Also is that Warren's ERA as a starter or his total body of work? Dellin has an anemic ERA as a bullpen guy, his ERA as a starter in the minor leagues was atrocious.

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    9. And I said to you the body of work is not significant enough to determine that. I was at the game he got lit up like a candle. You need to pitch more than 10 games to determine the true identity of the pitcher

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  10. Here are some Number 1s I....
    W. Hoyt-8.2 innings, R Ruffing, L. Gomez, R. Guidry, M. Stottlemyre, down to W. Ford-7.2 innings.
    All of them were not only good pitchers but, very very good pitchers but, now the game has changed so much they would never pitch that many innings.
    With the power guys throw with now, they wouldn't go any more innings back in those days as they do now...there are one or so exceptions!
    Different game now as to those days for sure!

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    1. I agree its a different game and the pitchers back then threw more innings and no one came down with TJ injury.

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    2. Yup, the mound was higher and the pitcher was throwing down hill a bit more.

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    3. Those kids also weren't throwing breaking balls and slider at 10 years old.. which can't help.

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    4. My guys never even thought of throwing anything but fastballs and Circle Changes. No stress on the arm at the young ages of 13/15 years of age...the older guys 16/18 were taught the curve so they had three pitches they knew how to throw. Some of them wanted to throw something more than 3 pitches and I would tell them, "When you have C&C of those three pitches we will look into more". The College Kids were harder to work with because they KNEW EVERYTHING! Yah, right!

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Sorry for the Capatcha... Blame the Russians :)