My Thoughts on the James Paxton Acquisition

In case you have been living under a rock for the past 24 hours, the New York Yankees acquired left-handed starter James Paxton from the Seattle Mariners for LHP prospect Justus Sheffield, RHP Erik Swanson and outfield prospect Dom Thompson-Williams. Here are my thoughts on the trade, for what they are worth.

My initial thought process was one of a bit of confusion. I didn’t immediately love the trade, but at the same time I didn’t exactly hate the trade either. I am a prospect humper, deal with it, but at the same time I understand that nine times out of a ten that a trade is supposed to hurt. As a prospect humper, this trade hurt… and that makes me optimistic for the future.

Is Paxton the ace that the Yankees “need” this offseason? Probably not, not as it stands today anyway, but the fact of the matter is… he could be. Health concerns aside, which you have with any pitcher, Paxton is entering his prime as a starting pitcher. Sometimes it takes pitchers a little longer to figure it out, health wise, than others. AJ Burnett is a great example of this. While his statistics in New York were not anything to write home about, he had seemingly turned the corner into his 30’s and learned how to build up his body to pitch an entire 162-game schedule. There’s no reason that Paxton cannot do the same.

Losing Sheffield sucks but I do understand that some scouts have been down on him lately. He has a small frame, which scares most talent evaluators, and his control has been suspect at times. I would have loved to have seen Justus figure it out in the Bronx, but I understand that he needed to be included in the deal to get it done. If the Yankees didn’t include Justus then we would be reading about Paxton wearing a Houston Astros uniform right now, and after the Justin Verlander and Gerritt Cole debacles that was just not an option. Losing Swanson also sucks, but he needed to be protected on the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 Draft and I honestly felt like there were too many arms ahead of him on the depth chart to warrant his protection. Lose him in a Paxton trade, or lose him for nothing next month. I’ll go with the former. Thompson-Williams, no offense, is a throw-in in the deal in my opinion.

The trade for Paxton hurt, but it made the Yankees starting rotation a whole lot better. Paxton, at worst, can slide into the middle of the Yankees rotation alongside Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka. At best, the Yankees got an ace for the price of a #2 starter. Adding Patrick Corbin to this rotation would only make the starting five that much better, and that idea excites me. As a prospect humper the deal has me worried, but as a Yankees fan this deal has me excited for the 2019 season. Go Yankees!

Yankees Acquire James Paxton...

Photo by Christian Petersen

Top Prospect Justus Sheffield joins the ranks of “former” Yankees…

The news broke suddenly yesterday afternoon. After a fairly quiet November (up to that point, the only significant MLB trade had been Seattle’s catcher Mike Zunino to the Tampa Bay Rays as the start of Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto’s “re-imagining” of his roster), reports came hard and fast like a James Paxton four-seam fastball that the Yankees had acquired the talented lefty from Seattle.  

My initial reaction was ‘it’s a start, but we need more’. I didn’t expect the Yankees to lose Miguel Andujar in a trade for the much talked about trade speculation involving the 6’4” Big Maple and fortunately he was not involved. For a frontline ace like Corey Kluber, you’d part with the young third baseman but not for Paxton. 

Photo by Al Bello, Getty Images

When it was announced the Yankees had sent top prospect Justus Sheffield, breakout minor league starter Erik Swanson, and rising minor league outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams to Seattle for Paxton, Yankee fans were immediately trying to find flaws in the prospects sent to the Northwest. I am not going to join the crowd and trash Sheffield. The fact remains he is only 22 and still has an excellent chance to be a difference-maker. For a team that is prepared to win in 2019, this is a trade that makes sense. Paxton makes the Yankees better when they step back on the grounds of Yankee Stadium next year. Sheffield is probably a few seasons away from reaching his potential. This is totally a ‘win now’ move.  

The Yankees also needed to make room on the 40-man roster for Swanson or he would have been eligible for next month’s Rule 5 Draft so this saves a spot for someone else.  

So where do we go from here? I really hope the Yankees continue their pursuit of free agent lefty Patrick Corbin. He was and continues to be my top choice. I’d love to have Corey Kluber but I don’t really expect the Cleveland Indians to trade their ace without asking for a King’s ransom. Admittedly, I will be disappointed if the Yankees sign J.A. Happ to fill the last spot in the rotation. Happ was great during his short time as a Yankee last year, but as a long-term piece, let’s say I would be a little underwhelmed. I would have been fine with Happ to go with Corbin, but not paired with Paxton who carries injury risk. I know, all pitchers carry injury risk. It’s the nature of the beast, but Paxton has consistently missed time over the last few years.  

If the Yankees are successful in signing Corbin, the newcomers, along with Masahiro Tanaka, will certainly ease some pressure off Luis Severino to be “the man”.  I suppose it’s not out of the question for the Yankees to sign both Corbin and Happ. Last year proved, once again, you can never have too many starters.  Personally, I preferred signing Happ over long-time Yank CC Sabathia for the back end of the rotation. But regardless, you know that one or more starters in the rotation will miss time for various ailments and the Yankees need to be prepared. I really hope we’re not facing more rollouts of Luis Cessa to fill those spots. Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga and Chance Adams will have every opportunity to help, I am sure, but I hope we’re not leaning on those guys in multiple spots like we were at times last season.  

Seattle fans seem to be taking the trade in stride. I think they realized that their team was mired in mediocrity in a division with some very strong teams. They have a few players with bloated contracts like Robinson Cano, Felix Hernandez, and Kyle Seager. I have always loved Cano but the back half of his huge contract is not going to be pretty for the 36-year old. I am glad the Yankees were able to acquire Paxton without having to take on any of unmovable contracts. The M’s can use the young pieces received in the Zunino and Paxton trades to position themselves for 2021 or so. I read one Seattle columnist who said Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto basically had the choice of getting punched in the mouth or hit by a truck. He chose the former.  

I fully expect Domingo German to give up #65 for Paxton. It’s not exactly like German is married to the number. I believe Jonathan Holder was wearing the number at the start of last season until he opted for a lower number in the 50’s.  The number still reminds me of Phil Hughes but no doubt, in time, Paxton can make it his own.

There may be minor moves made today as teams finalize their 40-man rosters for Rule 5 eligibility next month. I doubt we’ll see anything as major as the Paxton trade, but there’s always a chance for the inevitable Sonny Gray trade now that his spot in the rotation has been filled. Otherwise, I expect the remainder of the week to be fairly quiet with no significant moves until we get past the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend.  

Paxton is the first step toward the enhancement of the 2019 Yankees (if you don’t count the re-signings of Brett Gardner and CC Sabathia). Multiple moves remain necessary before this team is ready to take down the Boston Red Sox. Another starter, at least two more for the bullpen, and an interim solution at shortstop. Yet, my excitement for February is building. It only gets better from here.  

As always, Go Yankees!

Final Review on 2016 Yankees Draft

The 2016 Minor League Baseball season is officially over. The championships have been won, the games have been played and the rookies that were drafted this June can now be evaluated. When the 2016 MLB First Year Players Draft was all said and done I thought the Yankees had initially done well with their picks of Blake Rutherford, Nick Solak and others but now with half a season under their belts will I change my mind? Not likely but let’s find out.

Blake Rutherford, and call me bias if you want to, was the biggest steal of the MLB Draft. Rutherford was once thought of as first overall talent and he did nothing to make anyone believe any different in 2016. Rutherford fell because of signability concerns and the Yankees got him signed. It’s as simple as that. Rutherford is already considered to be a Top 50 prospect in all of baseball by many lists published online including Minor League Ball’s John Sickels and for good reason.

I also really like the Nick Solak pick although some didn’t. Some thought he was simply signed and drafted because the Yankees could save money on their slot recommendation with him to give to Rutherford. While that is true that doesn’t mean Solak was an empty pick either by any means. Solak proved that in his pro debut in Staten Island posting a .321/.421/.421 with a 155 wRC+ and eight stolen bases, 30 walks and just 39 strikeouts. I also like the Dom Thompson-Williams pick because many experts had the outfielder going in the third round. The Yankees stole him in the fifth round and the Brett Gardner comparisons began almost immediately.

The one thing the Yankees needed more than anything though was pitching and they drafted a few key arms to look out for including closer/reliever Brooks Kriske. Kriske may be moved from closer to starter a la Chance Adams but either way his arm is strong and the talent is there. Taylor Widener is another arm I see a lot of potential in after reading up on him from his years at South Carolina. Widener finished the season with a 3-0 record, 0.47 ERA, 1.50 FIP and an insane 13.9 K/9 strikeout ratio in 38.1 innings in his professional debut. Widener, another reliever, will get his chance to showcase his 97 MPH fastball, slider and secondary pitches in the rotation once again a la Chance Adams in 2017 and could turn out to be a special arm for the Yankees in the future.

All this without mentioning High School pick Nolan Martinez. New York did well for themselves this draft and the final stat lines this season prove that. Now’s the hard part, development. 

OFFICIAL 2016 MLB Draft Yankees Recap

The deadline has come and gone for each team to sign their draft picks from the 2016 MLB Draft and the Yankees did just that more times than not this season. New York signed each of their Top 10 draft picks this season including 18th overall pick Blake Rutherford and 3rd round pick Nolan Martinez which were part of an impressive haul by the Yankees this season. Here is what the Yankees got done before the draft signing deadline.

The top 10 picks for the Yankees were OF Blake Rutherford, 2B Nick Solak, RHP Nolan Martinez, RHP Nick Nelson, OF Dom Thompson-Williams, RHP Brooks Kriske, C Keith Skinner, 1B Dalton Blaser, 1B Tim Lynch and LHP Trevor Lane.

Outside the Top 10 rounds New York also signed 18 of their remaining 30 draft picks including every single player in the first 15 rounds of the draft. Pinstripe Alley has the complete list and it's awesome and well done so go check it out. HERE

When all was said and done the Yankees spent $7,123,000 in this year's draft.

Meet a Prospect: Dom Thompson-Williams

Nick Nelson is not the only Yankees draftee to recently sign with the club, the team also signed their fifth round pick as well this week. Dom Thompson was drafted 286^th overall by the New York Yankees out of the University of South Carolina and will soon be making his professional debut with the club, let’s meet him.

This is Meet a Prospect: The Dom Thompson-Williams Edition. Williams was a center fielder with the Gamecocks and was the ninth best player in the state of South Carolina at the time of his drafting. Baseball America had Thompson-Williams ranked 286^th overall due to concerns about whether his bat can carry him to the next level of competition. Williams is a left-handed batter and a speedy center fielder but his bat may make him more of the Chris Young or Aaron Hicks type (as they are today) and less of an ideal starter for most teams.

Obviously a lot can change between now and whenever Williams may potentially be knocking on the door to the Bronx and it’s worth mentioning that the Yankees have had some success with picks that no one really batted at eye at before, especially in the outfield. See Dustin Fowler as a recent example of this not to compare the two players whatsoever. Most prospects can hit a fastball and it’s whether they can hit the breaking stuff that defines them but the complete opposite is the case for Williams who has shown an ability to hit offspeed pitches while it’s the fastball that gives him fits, especially the higher velocity fastballs that you see all around the league today.

In 2016 Williams posted a .329/.430/.529 triple slash with seven home runs and 17 stolen bases even with those concerns about his bat speed. If the Yankees can make a slight mechanical or swing adjustment to give him another half second on his bat speed the Yankees may have one of the steals of the drafts on their hands with this fifth round pick. If not he may be out of the organization in four-to-five years, prospects are fickle creatures.

Williams is in the fold after signing a below slot deal that also paves the way for a potential signing of Blake Rutherford, Nick Solak, Nolan Martinez or all of the above. Welcome to the team Dom and welcome to the family!