Every year I get excited about the start of Spring Training, as it marks the beginning of baseball for the year. Sure, at times the offseason can be exciting to think and talk about, but for the most part it's boring and I can't wait for it to be over with.
Also, every year, the excitement for Spring Training quickly wears off and I'm left counting down the days to the real start of the baseball season... Opening Day. No longer am I going to watch a Yankees' game only to ask myself "who is that guy?" when a player enters a game.
Don't get me wrong, it's fun to see the prospects play, but I'd much rather watch guys like Aaron Judge and Miguel Andujar play in a real game rather than Francisco Diaz or Trey Amburgey in a glorified scrimmage.
Thankfully we're just a week away from Opening Day. Sadly, due to the Yankees seemingly suffering an injury every day, the Opening Day roster is not going to look like I'd originally hoped. But that hasn't stopped me from thinking about what it will look like, and to be honest it'll be much more interesting to see how things shake out now.
Speaking of injuries, I wanted to start by pointing out the players that would have been on the Opening Day roster if it wasn't for being injured...
Aaron Hicks - OF
Didi Gregorius - SS
Luis Severino - SP
CC Sabathia - SP (although he may be healthy, he'll at least miss time due to suspsension)
Jordan Montgomery - SP (J.A. Happ may not even be on the team if not for Jordan's Tommy John surgery)
Dellin Betances - RP
While I wasn't counting on Jacoby Ellsbury to be on the Opening Day roster like those previous six players above, due to Aaron Hicks being out he could have been included.
I'm going to begin my predictions for the roster with the starting rotation. We all know the first three starters (Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, and J.A. Happ), but I believe that Luis Cessa and Domingo German will get at least a start or two in the early going.
Cessa has thrown the most innings (17) and has been very impressive (0.53 ERA), while German has thrown 11.1 innings with only a 1.54 ERA. Neither man has a ton of fans, but I think they've both earned rotation spots.
I've heard good things about how Gio Gonzalez has looked so far, and while I don't expect him to be on the Opening Day roster, he'll be right there should one of Cessa or German look bad or suffer an injury.
Four of the eight bullpen spots are no-brainers. Aroldis Chapman will be the closer, with Zack Britton setting him up. Chad Green and Adam Ottavino will also be available for any important innings between the time the starter is taken out and Aaron Boone can hand the ball to Britton.
Jonathan Holder may not have been a "lock" to be in the bullpen, but he's certainly earned a spot there after looking good last season along with 10.1 innings during Spring Training with a 0.87 ERA. Tommy Kahnle has looked pretty good in Spring Training as well, throwing 7.1 innings with nine strikeouts and no walks, and since I think the Yankees want to see if he can be effective again now's as good a time as any to see.
The final two bullpen spots were a little harder to predict. Under the new rule limiting September call-ups Stephen Tarpley may not have even been on the Yankees' radar, but not only did he do well upon being called up last year he's also had a nice spring having not given up a run in 10.1 innings. Besides Britton and Chapman, who are set in their roles, the team could also use a left-handed reliever for the middle innings. The last spot is hardly a no-brainer, but Joe Harvey's ten strikeouts in 6.1 innings along with having a nice year between AA and AAA in 2018 makes me lean his way.
Moving onto the run production side of the team I'm going to start with the bench.
Austin Romine is one of the better backup catchers in the entire league. That's not to say I'd be okay if he were the team's regular starter, but he's a very capable backup.
If it weren't for Jacoby Ellsbury not being ready by Opening Day he'd likely take this spot on the bench, but instead that will go to Tyler Wade. Wade is very versatile, and like Kahnle the Yankees likely feel it's now or never for Tyler. If it wasn't for Wade's ability to play the outfield, though, I'd probably be talking about someone else.
The last spot is tough only because I'd rather see him starting at second base instead, but unfortunately the Yankees seem set on giving Troy Tulowitski the starting role at shortstop. Therefore, D.J. LeMahieu will be watching the game from the bench on Opening Day.
Finally we come to the starters. Due to the thing about Tulowitski that I already mentioned, and the rash of injuries the team has suffered this spring, there really aren't any surprises here.
The outfield will consist of Aaron Judge in right, Brett Gardner in center, and Giancarlo Stanton in left. While it's not a surprise to see Stanton in the outfield instead of DH, I can't help but feel the offense is better off this way as it opens up the DH spot for someone else. Plus it would be that "someone else" over Tyler Wade as a starter, which is clearly the right choice.
Miguel Andujar will be at third base, the aforementioned Troy Tulowitski at shortstop, Gleyber Torres at second, and due to him being the better defender Greg Bird will be at first. Gary Sanchez will take his rightful place behind the plate.
The designated hitter will be Luke Voit. Luke killed it when he came over from St. Louis last year, and this spring he's been hitting very well too. No matter the injury situation the Yankees were in, it would be very hard to keep Voit out of the Opening Day lineup.
There was just one other player I wanted to bring up before ending things, and that's Clint Frazier. Even before the offseason began I expected Clint to begin this season in AAA to make sure his head is clear and to get back to game speed, so I'm hardly surprised here. It's true I was rooting for him in Spring Training to come out guns blazing, but it just hasn't happened. So let the guy get going in AAA and push his way back to MLB.
When I read people predict the Red Sox to win the American League East again, at first, I get upset. I mean, no real Yankees fan ever wants to see anything good happen to Boston. But one thing I like about it is less expectations, and therefore less pressure, on the Yankees. Kind of like how things were in 2017. Sure, there's more to expect from this team, but at least it's not like last year when they were coming off a season in which they were one win away from the World Series.
One thing's for sure, this squad will give us plenty to talk about during the season. And I fully expect to have a lot of fun.
I'll leave you with a simple list of the Yankees' Opening Day roster...
C-Gary Sanchez
1B-Greg Bird
2B-Gleyber Torres
SS-Troy Tulowitzki
3B-Miguel Andujar
LF-Giancarlo Stanton
CF-Brett Gardner
RF-Aaron Judge
DH-Luke Voit
Bench:
D.J. LeMahieu
Tyler Wade
Austin Romine
Starting Rotation:
Masahiro Tanaka
James Paxton
J.A. Happ
Luis Cessa
Domingo German
Bullpen:
Aroldis Chapman
Zack Britton
Chad Green
Adam Ottavino
Jonathan Holder
Tommy Kahnle
Stephen Tarpley
Joe Harvey
Showing posts with label Roster. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Roster. Show all posts
Friday, March 22, 2019
Thursday, May 31, 2018
There Is Such A Thing As Too Much Talent
This is the image that pops into my head when I think of Brian Cashman looking at his organizational roster.
Over the years, when it comes to teams seemingly having too many good players, you've likely heard the phrase "it'll work itself out" over and over again. And the majority of the time that phrase rings true. However, we're seeing one of the rare times when having too many good players is causing headaches.
Five days ago, when Greg Bird made his return to the team, Ronald Torreyes was optioned to AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. That move was followed by a bit of outrage, which is totally understandable. Toe is a beloved member of the Yankees, as he's not only been a good to great contributor to the team for the past two plus seasons, fans and teammates love him for his attitude on and off the field. But a roster crunch made the move necessary.
Now, as Adam Warren is about ready to make his return from injury, the Yankees are left with another difficult roster decision.
So I decided to take a look at the roster and try to see what should happen. Honestly, it was a lot tougher than I thought.
I'll start with the guys that will stay in the Majors...
Pitchers
Dellin Betances
Aroldis Chapman
Chad Green
Tommy Kahnle
David Robertson
CC Sabathia
Luis Severino
Chasen Shreve
Masahiro Tanaka
Catchers
Gary Sanchez
Austin Romine
Infielders
Miguel Andujar
Greg Bird
Didi Gregorius
Gleyber Torres
Outfielders
Brett Gardner
Aaron Judge
Giancarlo Stanton
That's 18 players, leaving just seven spots remaining.
Now let's look at players that may not be shoe-ins to stay in the Majors, but certainly deserve a spot on the active roster...
Domingo German - After his incredible starting debut Sunday followed that up with a bad game, a horrible game, and a "meh" game. But if you ignore the stats you'll see that German has earned a longer look. After giving up a three-run homer the other day, he settled down and look good. That's a nice trait for a pitcher to have. Secondly, he has swing-and-miss stuff... another good trait for a pitcher to have. Finally, I'd like to see him pitch on regular rest more often. German was actually off for nine days before that awful start against the Rangers last week.
AJ Cole - It's only been 11 innings, but he's given up just one run, struck out 12, and walked six during that time. Cole's not this good, but he's not only earned his spot in the bullpen, he can't be sent to the minors without passing through waivers first due to being out of options.
Sonny Gray - I'm starting to think his rotation spot could be in jeopardy, especially if he can't turn things around before Montgomery returns, but he'd go to the bullpen way before getting DFA'd (due to service time he can't be sent to the minors without passing through waivers, and then accepting a minor league assignment, first).
Jonathan Holder - Like Cole he hasn't pitched a ton this season, but since April 21st (15.2 innings) Holder has not allowed an earned run, while striking out 16 and walking just two. Jonathan's not only earned a longer look, he's become one of the team's better relievers.
Brandon Drury - His numbers in the Majors, with Arizona and New York, are hardly mouth-watering, but keep in mind that he put up those stats while suffering from headaches (real ones, not the ones I've been talking about) and blurred vision. I want to see what he can do while 100%, the Yankees probably want to see that, and you should too.
Ronald Torreyes - While I didn't like it, I understood the decision to option Torreyes to AAA. Ronald is great in the utility role, but the fact of the matter is the Yankees have better players available to them. I would absolutely welcome him back to the MLB roster, but I don't see where.
Neil Walker - From Opening Day up until April 30th it looked like Neil was not the steal we all thought he was. Even at just $4 million it looked like the Yankees overpaid for him, as he was batting .165/.212/.190. But since May 1st he's hit .300/.407/.500 and not only earned his spot on the active roster, but made a case to play every day.
Clint Frazier - Frazier is probably the main cause of headache for Brian Cashman. Not because of how bad he is... quite the opposite, in fact. The man is absolutely crushing in AAA, batting .341/.414/.636 with five home runs, five doubles, and three triples in just 22 games. He's even stole four bases. He's either going to return to the Yankees and help guide them into the postseason and beyond, or be the key piece in a trade for a starter that will guide them into the postseason and beyond.
Aaron Hicks - I'm not sold on him being a starter, at least not for the Yankees, but if you look beyond a pedestrian batting average this season (.232) he's a solid player. He'll get on base at a decent clip, doesn't strike out much, makes contact often, and is a top ten defensive centerfielder in all of MLB.
Okay, at this point we're up to 27 players worthy of a spot on the active roster. That leaves a couple of tough choices to make. But don't go racking your brains to make cuts yet, there's more...
Tyler Austin - There was a time when it looked like Tyler may be the team's answer at first base, ahead of the oft-injured Greg Bird, but that time has passed. Since May 1st Tyler has hit .130/.163/.326. I don't believe he's done, but his roster spot on the Yankees should be given to someone else.
Jacoby Ellsbury - I'd rather Jacoby stay on the disabled list all season long, because he will return this season, and he will push somebody a lot more deserving off the active roster. I doubt he gets much playing time, but as long as he's on this team he will be in Yankee pinstripes.
That's 29 players for 25 spots. Honestly, with Austin likely to miss the cut, you can say 28 players for 25 spots. But I'm not done yet...
Jordan Montgomery - Monty's still a ways away from returning (he just started playing catch this week), but when he does he'll go right back into the rotation. And deservedly so. Jordan isn't going to "wow" anyone, but his ERA+ of 117 over 182.2 MLB innings shows there shouldn't be any doubt what his role is and should be.
Adam Warren - Boone has said Adam could be back this weekend. Warren was awesome last season, putting up a 2.35 ERA and an ERA+ of 193. In fact, the only time he hasn't been really good was during his short time with the Chicago Cubs in 2016. So even with a great bullpen as is, Adam will be welcomed back with open arms.
And there you have it. That's 30 players (I'll go ahead and subtract Tyler Austin for you) for 25 spots. So what should the Yankees do from here?
For starters, I believe that instead of carrying 13 pitchers and 12 batters, it should be the other way around. I think that extra bat would come into play more often than that extra arm would. Mind you, I won't say having 13 pitchers is a bad move, as our starters don't often pitch deep into games, but 12 pitcher should still get the job done. Besides, as you'll see in a bit, it may be necessary to keep 13 pitchers anyway.
Starting Pitchers
Luis Severino
Masahiro Tanaka
CC Sabathia
Jordan Montgomery
Sonny Gray
Relievers
Aroldis Chapman
David Robertson
Chad Green
Dellin Betances
Adam Warren
Tommy Kahnle
Chasen Shreve
I really think Cole and Holder have earned MLB roster spots, but the sad truth is there's just no room for them. What's worse is the whole "out of options" thing for Cole. The only reason I would support keeping 13 pitchers is so Cole wouldn't be lost for nearly nothing (he'd have to be designated for assignment, and then Cashman would likely work out a trade and get little in return).
Domingo German may be a regular starter for the Yankees next season, but for right now he's the odd man out (when Montgomery returns, of course). Like Cole and Holder, when rosters expand he'll not only be back in the Majors, but he'll be a nice contributor.
Position Players
C - Gary Sanchez
1B - Greg Bird
2B - Gleyber Torres
SS - Didi Gregorius
3B - Miguel Andujar
LF - Brett Gardner
CF - Aaron Hicks
RF - Aaron Judge
DH - Giancarlo Stanton
Bench - Austin Romine, Brandon Drury, Neil Walker, Jacoby Ellsbury*
*Since Ellsbury's stay on the disabled list could go on for a while, I wanted to note that I'd keep AJ Cole around due to him being out of options. Then, hopefully by the trade deadline, Cole could be included in a trade or someone else from the bullpen would be dealt to make room for AJ to stay there.
If it wasn't for the fact that, like I said, Jacoby Ellsbury will be on the MLB roster when he returns this season, I'd really like having Ronald Torreyes in that last bench spot. Stanton could play either corner outfield position if needed, while Boone could put Hicks or Gardner in centerfield, if necessary. Toe will be back when rosters expand, and like Cole, Holder, and German, will make a contribution to the postseason run.
And that leaves me to talk about Clint Frazier. In a vacuum Frazier would be the starting left fielder, pushing Gardner to center, and Hicks to the bench. In fact, that's what I originally had down, but then I decided to change things.
In terms of trade value, is it better to let Frazier continue to mash in AAA or possibly get exposed in MLB? After all, in his 146 MLB plate appearances, Clint has only managed a batting line of .235/.281/.456. Mind you, he's still only 23 and has massive potential, but if he were called up today and struggled, that could hurt his trade value.
So I'm going to let him keep killing it in AAA. If he somehow remains with the team past the trade deadline, or after a big trade is done with, then it'll be time to call him up.
It's hard leaving so much talent in AAA, but the insane amount of depth the Yankees have is one of the biggest reasons I believe this team has an outstanding shot at winning the whole damn thing this season. And that depth is going to help create, either directly or indirectly, a dynasty that brings New York more titles in the future.
Sunday, April 1, 2018
Just a Little House Cleaning
Don't mind me, just doing a little house cleaning and site maintenance. Check out what I have been working on all weekend, thank you in advance.
Done:
2018 Schedule added
2018 Roster Updated
List of Active TGP Writers Updated
TGP T-Shirts Removed.... Looking for a new way to offer Yankees-related merchandise though if anyone is reading and interested in working together.
JOHN STERLING HOME RUN CALLS ADDED!
In Process:
Wives and Girlfriends Page Updated
Wednesday, March 28, 2018
With Great Disappointment Comes Great Opportunity
Two weeks is a long time. I mean, so much can happen. For instance, somebody such as myself can spend a week in central Florida and go to Universal Studios, swim with manatees, visit a sister he rarely sees, go to a handful of beaches/parks, search for alligators (but sadly fail... it's still too cold), and walk around George M. Steinbrenner Field.
And two weeks ago I thought I had the Yankees Opening Day roster figured out. Perhaps you could take out somebody from the bullpen and add a bat to the bench, but the lineup was a sure thing. Here's what I had...
Starting Lineup
C-Gary Sanchez
1B-Greg Bird
2B-Neil Walker
SS-Didi Gregorius
3B-Brandon Drury
LF-Brett Gardner
CF-Aaron Hicks
RF-Aaron Judge
DH-Giancarlo Stanton
Bench
Austin Romine (C/1B)
Ronald Torreyes (2B/SS/3B)
Jacoby Ellsbury (OF) *If Ellsbury is not ready then I believe Tyler Austin will be on the bench instead.
Starting Rotation
1. Masahiro Tanaka
2. Luis Severino
3. Sonny Gray
4. CC Sabathia
5. Jordan Montgomery
Bullpen
Aroldis Chapman
David Robertson
Dellin Betances
Chad Green
Tommy Kahnle
Chasen Shreve
Adam Warren
Jonathan Holder
While guys like Austin Romine had good springs (he hit .394/.447/.545), the one man many fans wanted to see get a shot was Tyler Wade. Wade didn't hit for much power (his slugging percentage was .391), but his batting average (.283) and especially his on-base percentage (.404) really caught people's eye. But there was nowhere to play.
Sure, Tyler could have platooned at second base with Neil Walker, but personally I really didn't like that idea. I don't like when high-ceiling prospects like Wade are stuck in part-time roles. I'd rather see them play regularly in AAA, and hone their craft at the same time, than spend a significant amount of time on the bench.
On that note, I believe catchers are a different animal. Catchers are responsible for so much on the field, from working with pitchers to communicating with fielders, that sitting on the bench and watching/learning is necessary to their development. Pitchers are kind of the same, as they can learn and develop while working as relievers before starting again.
But players at other positions need to play regularly. I suppose they can learn from watching on the bench, like they do when watching video, but the vast majority of their learning comes from playing.
So that's why Tyler Wade was not a part of my Opening Day roster. I wanted him playing nearly every day.
Well, here we are two weeks later, and things have certainly changed.
As I sit here typing today I'm excited. Not because we won't see Greg Bird for a couple of months (or more), but because Tyler Wade now has a shot.
It seems likely that Wade and Neil Walker will share duties at second base. It's not the "every day" role I'd like for him, but I believe Tyler will play enough to make his time with the Yankees worth it. And now it's time for him to expand on what he did this spring, and move further away from the guy we saw that hit .155/.222/.224 in his first taste of the show.
From here on out this is how I see things going...
1. Fans will start screaming for Aaron Boone to play Tyler Wade most days at second base over Neil Walker. Not so much because Wade is hitting better than Walker, but because fans will believe that with regular playing time Tyler would bat better. I'm not so sure.
2. Gleyber Torres is going to own AAA. He hit .309/.406/.457 in 23 games at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last season, and while he may start off a bit slow after his injury and time off it won't be long until he's putting up similar numbers again. And that will lead to many Yankees fans clamoring for him to be promoted to the Yankees.
3. Brandon Drury will be slightly below average. He'll get some hate from fans that expect him to help the team the way Didi Gregorius does now, except they will forget that Didi was a below average batter in his first two seasons on New York. But the fact will remain that he won't keep anyone down.
4. Miguel Andujar will build off of his 2017 season with the RailRiders. This is significant not only for him, but it will also keep Torres at second base, and the whole "Gleyber the 3B" thing we once saw will remain a thing of the past.
5. Andujar will be the first promoted from AAA, and will take over for the "good but not good enough" Brandon Drury at third base. By the way, Drury may not play as often, but he will get a decent amount of playing time while giving other infielders a day off here and there.
6. While the demand for Torres to be promoted will start in a month, it'll be nearly June before Gleyber will be pushing too hard to ignore. This will lead to Tyler Wade being pushed aside... losing his playing time to Gleyber at second base, and eventually demoted as there is no room on the big league roster for him.
7. I don't see Greg Bird returning any time soon. We won't see him in six weeks, we won't see him in eight weeks, heck... we won't see him in 10 weeks. The Yankees will take their time with Bird because not only do they want to make sure he's healthy when he returns, but they'll want to keep giving Neil Walker playing time at first base.
8. By June 1st the regular infield will include Miguel Andujar at 3B, Didi Gregorius at SS, Gleyber Torres at 2B, and Neil Walker at 1B. Meanwhile, Tyler Wade will be sent to AAA to make room on the bench for Drury (along with Torreyes, Ellsbury and Romine).
9. The Yankees will push Greg Bird's return back until late July (he will be eased back into action so Neil Walker still gets significant playing time) when they will make a trade for a starting pitcher. Tyler Austin could be involved in a trade as he's already spent 133 games in AAA, but the Yankees lack of good 1B depth will keep him around. Here's my big prediction here... based on the roster construction I think the Yankees will flip Brandon Drury. So it'll be Brandon Drury, Tyler Wade, Chance Adams (who will be ready more than ready to step into a starting role in MLB), and another piece or two for a starting pitcher.
10. After the trade deadline the Yankees roster will look like this...
Starting Lineup
C-Gary Sanchez
1B-Greg Bird
2B-Gleyber Torres
SS-Didi Gregorius
3B-Miguel Andujar
LF-Brett Gardner
CF-Aaron Hicks
RF-Aaron Judge
DH-Giancarlo Stanton
Bench
Austin Romine (C/1B)
Neil Walker (2B/1B)
Ronald Torreyes (2B/3B/SS)
Jacoby Ellsbury (OF)
Starting Rotation
1. Luis Severino
2. New Guy (sorry, don't have a prediction for who... yet)
3. Masahiro Tanaka
4. Sonny Gray
5. CC Sabathia
Bullpen
Aroldis Chapman
David Robertson
Dellin Betances
Chad Green
Tommy Kahnle
Chasen Shreve
Adam Warren
Jordan Montgomery (I think he'll take a step back after last season, and will lose his starting role so he can find himself again out of the bullpen... a la Luis Severino)
I didn't think too hard about the bullpen, so it's quite possible that guys like Domingo Acevedo, Domingo German, and others work there way in there.
Funny, this all started with me wanting to simply point out that Tyler Wade was going to get an opportunity that he otherwise would not have had if Greg Bird weren't injured. And this is what it turned into. What can I say? It's easy for me to go off on tangents when it comes to the Yankees. Hopefully that's a good thing.
Thanks again for reading, and let's go Yanks!
By the way, I took a total of 29 pictures at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Let me know if you want me to post them all here for you.
And two weeks ago I thought I had the Yankees Opening Day roster figured out. Perhaps you could take out somebody from the bullpen and add a bat to the bench, but the lineup was a sure thing. Here's what I had...
Starting Lineup
C-Gary Sanchez
1B-Greg Bird
2B-Neil Walker
SS-Didi Gregorius
3B-Brandon Drury
LF-Brett Gardner
CF-Aaron Hicks
RF-Aaron Judge
DH-Giancarlo Stanton
Bench
Austin Romine (C/1B)
Ronald Torreyes (2B/SS/3B)
Jacoby Ellsbury (OF) *If Ellsbury is not ready then I believe Tyler Austin will be on the bench instead.
Starting Rotation
1. Masahiro Tanaka
2. Luis Severino
3. Sonny Gray
4. CC Sabathia
5. Jordan Montgomery
Bullpen
Aroldis Chapman
David Robertson
Dellin Betances
Chad Green
Tommy Kahnle
Chasen Shreve
Adam Warren
Jonathan Holder
While guys like Austin Romine had good springs (he hit .394/.447/.545), the one man many fans wanted to see get a shot was Tyler Wade. Wade didn't hit for much power (his slugging percentage was .391), but his batting average (.283) and especially his on-base percentage (.404) really caught people's eye. But there was nowhere to play.
Sure, Tyler could have platooned at second base with Neil Walker, but personally I really didn't like that idea. I don't like when high-ceiling prospects like Wade are stuck in part-time roles. I'd rather see them play regularly in AAA, and hone their craft at the same time, than spend a significant amount of time on the bench.
On that note, I believe catchers are a different animal. Catchers are responsible for so much on the field, from working with pitchers to communicating with fielders, that sitting on the bench and watching/learning is necessary to their development. Pitchers are kind of the same, as they can learn and develop while working as relievers before starting again.
But players at other positions need to play regularly. I suppose they can learn from watching on the bench, like they do when watching video, but the vast majority of their learning comes from playing.
So that's why Tyler Wade was not a part of my Opening Day roster. I wanted him playing nearly every day.
Well, here we are two weeks later, and things have certainly changed.
As I sit here typing today I'm excited. Not because we won't see Greg Bird for a couple of months (or more), but because Tyler Wade now has a shot.
It seems likely that Wade and Neil Walker will share duties at second base. It's not the "every day" role I'd like for him, but I believe Tyler will play enough to make his time with the Yankees worth it. And now it's time for him to expand on what he did this spring, and move further away from the guy we saw that hit .155/.222/.224 in his first taste of the show.
From here on out this is how I see things going...
1. Fans will start screaming for Aaron Boone to play Tyler Wade most days at second base over Neil Walker. Not so much because Wade is hitting better than Walker, but because fans will believe that with regular playing time Tyler would bat better. I'm not so sure.
2. Gleyber Torres is going to own AAA. He hit .309/.406/.457 in 23 games at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last season, and while he may start off a bit slow after his injury and time off it won't be long until he's putting up similar numbers again. And that will lead to many Yankees fans clamoring for him to be promoted to the Yankees.
3. Brandon Drury will be slightly below average. He'll get some hate from fans that expect him to help the team the way Didi Gregorius does now, except they will forget that Didi was a below average batter in his first two seasons on New York. But the fact will remain that he won't keep anyone down.
4. Miguel Andujar will build off of his 2017 season with the RailRiders. This is significant not only for him, but it will also keep Torres at second base, and the whole "Gleyber the 3B" thing we once saw will remain a thing of the past.
5. Andujar will be the first promoted from AAA, and will take over for the "good but not good enough" Brandon Drury at third base. By the way, Drury may not play as often, but he will get a decent amount of playing time while giving other infielders a day off here and there.
6. While the demand for Torres to be promoted will start in a month, it'll be nearly June before Gleyber will be pushing too hard to ignore. This will lead to Tyler Wade being pushed aside... losing his playing time to Gleyber at second base, and eventually demoted as there is no room on the big league roster for him.
7. I don't see Greg Bird returning any time soon. We won't see him in six weeks, we won't see him in eight weeks, heck... we won't see him in 10 weeks. The Yankees will take their time with Bird because not only do they want to make sure he's healthy when he returns, but they'll want to keep giving Neil Walker playing time at first base.
8. By June 1st the regular infield will include Miguel Andujar at 3B, Didi Gregorius at SS, Gleyber Torres at 2B, and Neil Walker at 1B. Meanwhile, Tyler Wade will be sent to AAA to make room on the bench for Drury (along with Torreyes, Ellsbury and Romine).
9. The Yankees will push Greg Bird's return back until late July (he will be eased back into action so Neil Walker still gets significant playing time) when they will make a trade for a starting pitcher. Tyler Austin could be involved in a trade as he's already spent 133 games in AAA, but the Yankees lack of good 1B depth will keep him around. Here's my big prediction here... based on the roster construction I think the Yankees will flip Brandon Drury. So it'll be Brandon Drury, Tyler Wade, Chance Adams (who will be ready more than ready to step into a starting role in MLB), and another piece or two for a starting pitcher.
10. After the trade deadline the Yankees roster will look like this...
Starting Lineup
C-Gary Sanchez
1B-Greg Bird
2B-Gleyber Torres
SS-Didi Gregorius
3B-Miguel Andujar
LF-Brett Gardner
CF-Aaron Hicks
RF-Aaron Judge
DH-Giancarlo Stanton
Bench
Austin Romine (C/1B)
Neil Walker (2B/1B)
Ronald Torreyes (2B/3B/SS)
Jacoby Ellsbury (OF)
Starting Rotation
1. Luis Severino
2. New Guy (sorry, don't have a prediction for who... yet)
3. Masahiro Tanaka
4. Sonny Gray
5. CC Sabathia
Bullpen
Aroldis Chapman
David Robertson
Dellin Betances
Chad Green
Tommy Kahnle
Chasen Shreve
Adam Warren
Jordan Montgomery (I think he'll take a step back after last season, and will lose his starting role so he can find himself again out of the bullpen... a la Luis Severino)
I didn't think too hard about the bullpen, so it's quite possible that guys like Domingo Acevedo, Domingo German, and others work there way in there.
Funny, this all started with me wanting to simply point out that Tyler Wade was going to get an opportunity that he otherwise would not have had if Greg Bird weren't injured. And this is what it turned into. What can I say? It's easy for me to go off on tangents when it comes to the Yankees. Hopefully that's a good thing.
Thanks again for reading, and let's go Yanks!
By the way, I took a total of 29 pictures at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Let me know if you want me to post them all here for you.
Wednesday, March 14, 2018
So What Will The Yankees Look Like On Opening Day?
Predicting the roster is not really my thing. Sure, I've done it in the past, but more often than not it's Daniel that makes these predictions and does a fine job. But here I sit on my day off from work and I couldn't help but think about what the team would look like on Opening Day.
For the record, before the Yankees even signed Neil Walker, I had a feeling that Miguel Andujar would start the year with the RailRiders. I was actually ready to say that Drury would be the Opening Day third baseman while Tyler Wade started at second base. But Brian Cashman surprised us all and nabbed Walker for much less than I thought they were going to give them a few weeks ago.
So here's what I have...
Starting Lineup
C-Gary Sanchez
1B-Greg Bird
2B-Neil Walker
SS-Didi Gregorius
3B-Brandon Drury
LF-Brett Gardner
CF-Aaron Hicks
RF-Aaron Judge
DH-Giancarlo Stanton
Bench
Austin Romine (C/1B)
Ronald Torreyes (2B/SS/3B)
Jacoby Ellsbury (OF) *If Ellsbury is not ready then I believe Tyler Austin will be on the bench instead.
Starting Rotation
1. Masahiro Tanaka
2. Luis Severino
3. Sonny Gray
4. CC Sabathia
5. Jordan Montgomery
Bullpen
Aroldis Chapman
David Robertson
Dellin Betances
Chad Green
Tommy Kahnle
Chasen Shreve
Adam Warren
Jonathan Holder
After writing that I thought... Do you realize the insane amount of talent that will start the season in the minors, particularly right there in AAA? Take a look at this list, with their projected landing spots on Opening Day (I used Mike Axisa's projections on River Ave Blues)...
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Miguel Andujar
Gleyber Torres
Tyler Wade
Thairo Estrada
Tyler Austin
Clint Frazier
Billy McKinney
Chance Adams
Domingo German
Trenton Thunder
Justus Sheffield
Dillon Tate
Domingo Acevedo
Tampa Tarpons
Estevan Florial
Albert Abreu
There are probably a handful of players you guys are upset that I excluded here, too.
I've actually gone beyond excited about this teams future and moved into awe-struck. Not only could the Yankees sign a player like Manny Machado or Bryce Harper for next season, but they have a ton of firepower in order to trade for young stars on top of that. Even then they will still have a very good farm system.
For the record, before the Yankees even signed Neil Walker, I had a feeling that Miguel Andujar would start the year with the RailRiders. I was actually ready to say that Drury would be the Opening Day third baseman while Tyler Wade started at second base. But Brian Cashman surprised us all and nabbed Walker for much less than I thought they were going to give them a few weeks ago.
So here's what I have...
Starting Lineup
C-Gary Sanchez
1B-Greg Bird
2B-Neil Walker
SS-Didi Gregorius
3B-Brandon Drury
LF-Brett Gardner
CF-Aaron Hicks
RF-Aaron Judge
DH-Giancarlo Stanton
Bench
Austin Romine (C/1B)
Ronald Torreyes (2B/SS/3B)
Jacoby Ellsbury (OF) *If Ellsbury is not ready then I believe Tyler Austin will be on the bench instead.
Starting Rotation
1. Masahiro Tanaka
2. Luis Severino
3. Sonny Gray
4. CC Sabathia
5. Jordan Montgomery
Bullpen
Aroldis Chapman
David Robertson
Dellin Betances
Chad Green
Tommy Kahnle
Chasen Shreve
Adam Warren
Jonathan Holder
After writing that I thought... Do you realize the insane amount of talent that will start the season in the minors, particularly right there in AAA? Take a look at this list, with their projected landing spots on Opening Day (I used Mike Axisa's projections on River Ave Blues)...
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Miguel Andujar
Gleyber Torres
Tyler Wade
Thairo Estrada
Tyler Austin
Clint Frazier
Billy McKinney
Chance Adams
Domingo German
Trenton Thunder
Justus Sheffield
Dillon Tate
Domingo Acevedo
Tampa Tarpons
Estevan Florial
Albert Abreu
There are probably a handful of players you guys are upset that I excluded here, too.
I've actually gone beyond excited about this teams future and moved into awe-struck. Not only could the Yankees sign a player like Manny Machado or Bryce Harper for next season, but they have a ton of firepower in order to trade for young stars on top of that. Even then they will still have a very good farm system.
Friday, September 22, 2017
Why is getting under the Luxury Tax threshold an issue?
While I was once big into the team's payroll I shied away from it the past couple of years. I just couldn't spend any more time thinking about money after years in which the team didn't seem to care about it at all. At least while the team still had large contracts such as those for Alex Rodriguez around.
Once the contracts for ARod and CC Sabathia finish up, to go along with the emergence of guys like Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, and Luis Severino, it seemed inevitable that the Yankees were going to get under the Luxury Tax threshold for 2018. With that, their luxury tax percentage would reset, allowing them to sign future free agents such as Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, or Clayton Kershaw without having to worry about the tax hit they would take.
Earlier this season I was thinking about all of this and took a quick look to see if it would really happen. Hell, the Yankees have been talking about getting under the Luxury Tax threshold for years with no success. Would that change this time? Especially seeing as how the team is not at all in "rebuilding mode"?
Let's start by looking at the projected active roster, along with the player's salaries, for 2018......
Note: I'm not good with projecting arbitration salaries, but I feel my numbers are not that far off.
C- Gary Sanchez ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
1B- Greg Bird ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
2B- Starlin Castro $10.857m
SS- Didi Gregorius ~$8m (made $5.1m in his second year of arbitration this season)
3B- Chase Headley $13m
LF- Brett Gardner $11.5m
CF- Jacoby Ellsbury $21.143m
RF- Aaron Judge ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
DH- Clint Frazier ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
BE- Aaron Hicks ~$3m (made $1.35m in his first year of arbitration this season)
BE- Austin Romine ~$1.5m (made $.805m in his first year of arbitration this season)
BE- Ronald Torreyes ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
BE- Garrett Cooper ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
SP1- Luis Severino ~$.7 (pre-arbitration)
SP2- Sonny Gray ~$6m (made $3.575m in his first year of arbitration this season)
SP3- Jordan Montgomery ~$.7 (pre-arbitration)
SP4-
SP5-
CL- Aroldis Chapman $17.2m
RP- Dellin Betances ~$5m (made $3m in his first year of arbitration this season)
RP- David Robertson $13m
RP- Tommy Kahnle ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
RP- Chad Green ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
RP- Adam Warren ~$3.5m (made $2.29m in his second year of arbitration this season)
RP- Bryan Mitchell ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
Before adding those numbers up there are a couple of more things to add. One is that the Yankees will still owe the Houston Astros $5.5 million as part of the trade that sent Brian McCann their way. The second thing is that the team payroll for luxury tax purposes is based on the 40-man roster, therefore you need to add about $9 million (assuming the final 15 spots are filled by players making the league minimum).
Therefore, at this point, the Yankees are on the hook for around $137.9 million next season. I should note that any team will want to have some money set aside for mid-season pickups, which most often occur via trades (see the trade for Sonny Gray as an example).
Now for some questions about this projected roster...
1. How will the Yankees fill the last two starting spots?
I believe one of them will be filled from within. One man that I can see getting the call is Chance Adams, who has started 21 games in AAA and ERA of 2.89. Or we could see Caleb Smith or Domingo German. Maybe even Domingo Acevedo. As for the other spot... more on that later.
2. Can Greg Bird stay healthy?
I'm not ready to give up on Bird being able to stay healthy, but after missing all of 2016 and a large chunk of this season, I wouldn't feel totally comfortable relying on him to take over first base regularly next season. However, I can see him platooning with Garrett Cooper, which should help Greg stay healthy.
And don't forget that should Bird get injured, and Cooper can not be relied upon to play regularly, the Yankees could move Chase Headley to first base and call up Miguel Andujar to take over third. Not to mention that Ronald Torreyes did a good job filling in for Starlin Castro while he was on the DL this season.
3. Will the Yankees trade away Brett Gardner and/or Jacoby Ellsbury?
This seems like a certainty... at least for one of those two. Clint Frazier is more than ready to play regularly, and to get that done I believe at least one of those two players needs to go. While I lean towards Gardner getting dealt, I can't say for sure as dealing away Ellsbury should be something the team really wants to get done, and doing that after his solid season in 2017 would probably be the best bet.
A trade of Gardy or Ells would also open up more playing time for Aaron Hicks, who I believe deserves more than being a 4th outfielder.
4. Will Masahiro Tanaka opt-out?
Remember how I left the first question? Yeah, this is where the rest of the answer to that question lies.
This will probably be the biggest question the Yankees will face heading into the off-season. However, I don't think the answer will negatively effect the Yankees at all.
Either 'Hiro (why am I the only person that calls him this?) opts out, leaving the team to find his replacement to go along with the aforementioned starter from the first question, or Tanaka stays and rounds out what would be a very nice starting rotation (Severino, Gray, Tanaka, Montgomery, and ?). No matter what, though, I believe the Yankees will spend big on Tanaka, or a free agent like Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish (mind you, the free agents would likely cost more than the $22 million the team would have to pay Tanaka if he doesn't opt-out).
That's the thing! The Yankees should be able to spend big on that rotation spot without having to worry about the Luxury Tax threshold. Let's take a look at that roster again, only this time I'll include those pitchers...
C- Gary Sanchez ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
1B- Greg Bird ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
2B- Starlin Castro $10.857m
SS- Didi Gregorius ~$8m (made $5.1m in his second year of arbitration this season)
3B- Chase Headley $13m
LF- Brett Gardner $11.5m
CF- Jacoby Ellsbury $21.143m
RF- Aaron Judge ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
DH- Clint Frazier ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
BE- Aaron Hicks ~$3m (made $1.35m in his first year of arbitration this season)
BE- Austin Romine ~$1.5m (made $.805m in his first year of arbitration this season)
BE- Ronald Torreyes ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
BE- Garrett Cooper ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
SP1- Luis Severino ~$.7 (pre-arbitration)
SP2- Sonny Gray ~$6m (made $3.575m in his first year of arbitration this season)
SP3- Masahiro Tanaka/Jake Arrieta/Yu Darvish $27m (I'll go big on money here just in case)
SP4- Jordan Montgomery ~$.7 (pre-arbitration)
SP5- Chance Adams/Domingo German/Domingo Acevedo ~.7m
CL- Aroldis Chapman $17.2m
RP- Dellin Betances ~$5m (made $3m in his first year of arbitration this season)
RP- David Robertson $13m
RP- Tommy Kahnle ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
RP- Chad Green ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
RP- Adam Warren ~$3.5m (made $2.29m in his second year of arbitration this season)
RP- Bryan Mitchell ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
After the $9 million for the final 15 spots on the 40-man roster, that gives us a total of $165.6 million. If you want to figure $10 million for mid-season pickup money, that still leaves the Yankees with $21.4 million to spend on a possible regular DH. And that's without figuring in any savings the team would get should they trade away Gardner and/or Ellsbury (I assume their replacements on the roster would cost less, even if the Yankees picked up some of the remaining salaries).
Honestly, I feel like I'm missing something, because every other writer doesn't see the Yankees getting under the Luxury Tax threshold next season as a certainty at all. Especially if they were to pay upwards of $27 million for a starting pitcher. So please go easy on me if I missed something.
Otherwise, the future of the Yankees is looking better than I already thought it did.
Sorry, Alex. No more Yankee money for you.
Once the contracts for ARod and CC Sabathia finish up, to go along with the emergence of guys like Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, and Luis Severino, it seemed inevitable that the Yankees were going to get under the Luxury Tax threshold for 2018. With that, their luxury tax percentage would reset, allowing them to sign future free agents such as Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, or Clayton Kershaw without having to worry about the tax hit they would take.
Earlier this season I was thinking about all of this and took a quick look to see if it would really happen. Hell, the Yankees have been talking about getting under the Luxury Tax threshold for years with no success. Would that change this time? Especially seeing as how the team is not at all in "rebuilding mode"?
Let's start by looking at the projected active roster, along with the player's salaries, for 2018......
Note: I'm not good with projecting arbitration salaries, but I feel my numbers are not that far off.
C- Gary Sanchez ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
1B- Greg Bird ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
2B- Starlin Castro $10.857m
SS- Didi Gregorius ~$8m (made $5.1m in his second year of arbitration this season)
3B- Chase Headley $13m
LF- Brett Gardner $11.5m
CF- Jacoby Ellsbury $21.143m
RF- Aaron Judge ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
DH- Clint Frazier ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
BE- Aaron Hicks ~$3m (made $1.35m in his first year of arbitration this season)
BE- Austin Romine ~$1.5m (made $.805m in his first year of arbitration this season)
BE- Ronald Torreyes ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
BE- Garrett Cooper ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
SP1- Luis Severino ~$.7 (pre-arbitration)
SP2- Sonny Gray ~$6m (made $3.575m in his first year of arbitration this season)
SP3- Jordan Montgomery ~$.7 (pre-arbitration)
SP4-
SP5-
CL- Aroldis Chapman $17.2m
RP- Dellin Betances ~$5m (made $3m in his first year of arbitration this season)
RP- David Robertson $13m
RP- Tommy Kahnle ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
RP- Chad Green ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
RP- Adam Warren ~$3.5m (made $2.29m in his second year of arbitration this season)
RP- Bryan Mitchell ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
Before adding those numbers up there are a couple of more things to add. One is that the Yankees will still owe the Houston Astros $5.5 million as part of the trade that sent Brian McCann their way. The second thing is that the team payroll for luxury tax purposes is based on the 40-man roster, therefore you need to add about $9 million (assuming the final 15 spots are filled by players making the league minimum).
Therefore, at this point, the Yankees are on the hook for around $137.9 million next season. I should note that any team will want to have some money set aside for mid-season pickups, which most often occur via trades (see the trade for Sonny Gray as an example).
Now for some questions about this projected roster...
1. How will the Yankees fill the last two starting spots?
I believe one of them will be filled from within. One man that I can see getting the call is Chance Adams, who has started 21 games in AAA and ERA of 2.89. Or we could see Caleb Smith or Domingo German. Maybe even Domingo Acevedo. As for the other spot... more on that later.
2. Can Greg Bird stay healthy?
I'm not ready to give up on Bird being able to stay healthy, but after missing all of 2016 and a large chunk of this season, I wouldn't feel totally comfortable relying on him to take over first base regularly next season. However, I can see him platooning with Garrett Cooper, which should help Greg stay healthy.
And don't forget that should Bird get injured, and Cooper can not be relied upon to play regularly, the Yankees could move Chase Headley to first base and call up Miguel Andujar to take over third. Not to mention that Ronald Torreyes did a good job filling in for Starlin Castro while he was on the DL this season.
3. Will the Yankees trade away Brett Gardner and/or Jacoby Ellsbury?
This seems like a certainty... at least for one of those two. Clint Frazier is more than ready to play regularly, and to get that done I believe at least one of those two players needs to go. While I lean towards Gardner getting dealt, I can't say for sure as dealing away Ellsbury should be something the team really wants to get done, and doing that after his solid season in 2017 would probably be the best bet.
A trade of Gardy or Ells would also open up more playing time for Aaron Hicks, who I believe deserves more than being a 4th outfielder.
4. Will Masahiro Tanaka opt-out?
Remember how I left the first question? Yeah, this is where the rest of the answer to that question lies.
This will probably be the biggest question the Yankees will face heading into the off-season. However, I don't think the answer will negatively effect the Yankees at all.
Either 'Hiro (why am I the only person that calls him this?) opts out, leaving the team to find his replacement to go along with the aforementioned starter from the first question, or Tanaka stays and rounds out what would be a very nice starting rotation (Severino, Gray, Tanaka, Montgomery, and ?). No matter what, though, I believe the Yankees will spend big on Tanaka, or a free agent like Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish (mind you, the free agents would likely cost more than the $22 million the team would have to pay Tanaka if he doesn't opt-out).
That's right, Hal... somebody's getting paid.
That's the thing! The Yankees should be able to spend big on that rotation spot without having to worry about the Luxury Tax threshold. Let's take a look at that roster again, only this time I'll include those pitchers...
C- Gary Sanchez ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
1B- Greg Bird ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
2B- Starlin Castro $10.857m
SS- Didi Gregorius ~$8m (made $5.1m in his second year of arbitration this season)
3B- Chase Headley $13m
LF- Brett Gardner $11.5m
CF- Jacoby Ellsbury $21.143m
RF- Aaron Judge ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
DH- Clint Frazier ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
BE- Aaron Hicks ~$3m (made $1.35m in his first year of arbitration this season)
BE- Austin Romine ~$1.5m (made $.805m in his first year of arbitration this season)
BE- Ronald Torreyes ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
BE- Garrett Cooper ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
SP1- Luis Severino ~$.7 (pre-arbitration)
SP2- Sonny Gray ~$6m (made $3.575m in his first year of arbitration this season)
SP3- Masahiro Tanaka/Jake Arrieta/Yu Darvish $27m (I'll go big on money here just in case)
SP4- Jordan Montgomery ~$.7 (pre-arbitration)
SP5- Chance Adams/Domingo German/Domingo Acevedo ~.7m
CL- Aroldis Chapman $17.2m
RP- Dellin Betances ~$5m (made $3m in his first year of arbitration this season)
RP- David Robertson $13m
RP- Tommy Kahnle ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
RP- Chad Green ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
RP- Adam Warren ~$3.5m (made $2.29m in his second year of arbitration this season)
RP- Bryan Mitchell ~$.7m (pre-arbitration)
After the $9 million for the final 15 spots on the 40-man roster, that gives us a total of $165.6 million. If you want to figure $10 million for mid-season pickup money, that still leaves the Yankees with $21.4 million to spend on a possible regular DH. And that's without figuring in any savings the team would get should they trade away Gardner and/or Ellsbury (I assume their replacements on the roster would cost less, even if the Yankees picked up some of the remaining salaries).
Honestly, I feel like I'm missing something, because every other writer doesn't see the Yankees getting under the Luxury Tax threshold next season as a certainty at all. Especially if they were to pay upwards of $27 million for a starting pitcher. So please go easy on me if I missed something.
Otherwise, the future of the Yankees is looking better than I already thought it did.
Thursday, March 16, 2017
Predicting the Yankees Opening Day Roster Halfway Through Spring Training
The New York Yankees passed the halfway point of spring training this week according to their Grapefruit League schedule so halfway through I am going to make some roster predictions for Opening Day 2017. The Yankees recently cut down 11 players over the weekend dropping their roster to 53 players. New York has to have their roster down to 25 players by April 2nd and while there are some obvious cuts to be made with top prospects there are still some decisions to be made regarding the rotation, the bullpen and the bench. Here’s my decisions on those important positions as it stands today. Obviously these are subject to change in the next coming weeks. If you disagree with my assessment then please leave it below in the comments section or give us a follow on Twitter (@GreedyStripes) and we can discuss it there. Thank you.
The Offense:
C: Gary Sanchez
1B: Greg Bird
2B: Starlin Castro
SS: Didi Gregorius
3B: Chase Headley
LF: Brett Gardner
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
RF: Aaron Judge
DH: Matt Holliday
The Bench:
BN: Chris Carter
BN: Aaron Hicks
BN: Ronald Torreyes
BN: Austin Romine
The Rotation:
SP: Masahiro Tanaka
SP: Michael Pineda
SP: CC Sabathia
SP: Luis Severino
SP: Chad Green
The Bullpen:
LR: Bryan Mitchell
RP: Jon Niese
RP: Tommy Layne
RP: Adam Warren
RP: Tyler Clippard
SU: Dellin Betances
CP: Aroldis Chapman
Monday, November 7, 2016
Most Popular Article of the Week: MLBTR Offseason Outlook for the New York Yankees
From MLB Trade Rumors seen here:
Despite a virtually unprecedented sell-off at the non-waiver trade deadline, the Yankees were in the thick of the Wild Card race through late September thanks to some significant strides from their young talent. With the path to playing time for a number of upstart players beginning to clear, they’ll look to supplement their increasingly youthful core in an effort to return to postseason play next year.
Guaranteed Contracts
Few would’ve pegged the Yankees as likely contenders after dealing Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Carlos Beltran prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, but the team hung around in the Wild Card race, buoyed largely by the superhuman performance of rookie Gary Sanchez and late flourishes from arms like CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Masahiro Tanaka — each of whom was excellent in September.
However, while Sabathia, Pineda and Tanaka each finished strong, that performance is potentially misleading. Each member of that trio entered the 2016 campaign with significant health questions — Sabathia’s knee, Pineda’s shoulder, Tanaka’s elbow — and it’d be unwise to expect that group to combine for 30 starts apiece once again in 2017. With the loss of Nathan Eovaldi to Tommy John/flexor repair surgery, the Yankees’ pitching depth took a further hit, leaving it unclear as to exactly who can shoulder the load for the rotation next season.
Certainly, Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia are penciled into the mix, but the two additional spots beyond that group of veterans is up for grabs. Chad Green, Luis Severino, Bryan Mitchell and Luis Cessa are all candidates, and Adam Warren has done his share of starting for the Yankees in the past as well. But it’s not entirely clear that Severino’s future is in the rotation after a ghastly 8.50 ERA as a starter (47 2/3 innings) against a ridiculous 0.39 ERA as a reliever (23 1/3 innings). Obviously, those are small samples, but questions about Severino’s long-term ability to start date back to his days as a prospect, and the 2016 season certainly lends some credence to those who advocate for him to join Dellin Betances as a rotation prospect that instead thrives as a power arm in the bullpen. The 52 strikeouts that Green piled up in just 45 2/3 innings make him the next-most intriguing name of the bunch, but he finished the season on the shelf due to a flexor strain of his own, so there’s little certainty with regard to the 25-year-old.
The free-agent market is notoriously thin this offseason, though if GM Brian Cashman wants to utilize the financial flexibility he gained via the retirement of Mark Teixeira and the shedding of the Beltran, Chapman and Miller contracts to chase upside, the Yankees can certainly afford to beat the market for Rich Hill. The 36-year-old’s renaissance has been one of the most remarkable storylines of the past season, and Hill is unquestionably the only thing resembling a top-of-the-rotation pitcher on the free-agent market. He’d add his own laundry list of injury question marks to the Yankees’ ledger, of course, but Hill’s 2.21 ERA and 178-to-39 K/BB ratio across his past 146 1/3 big league innings (postseason included) are difficult to ignore.
The other top names on the market include Jeremy Hellickson, who figures to reject a qualifying offer (which curbed the Yankees’ free-agent pursuits last winter in an offseason in which they remarkably elected not to sign a single MLB free agent), and former Yankee Ivan Nova. Bounceback arms will be plentiful, with the likes of Charlie Morton, Brett Anderson, Bud Norris, Jake Peavy and Henderson Alvarez all available if they’re comfortable trying to reestablish themselves in the tight confines of Yankee Stadium.
The trade market represents Cashman’s other primary avenue to a big league rotation piece, but the GM has indicated that he doesn’t think he’s at the point where he’s ready to offload a newly acquired plethora of high-end minor league talent in order to procure a front-line starter. That could be a smokescreen and could change as opportunities arise throughout the offseason, but for now it sounds like Yankees fans should think more along the lines of Ervin Santana than Chris Sale or Chris Archer when it comes to trade targets. The subtraction of a number of a number of expensive commitments — Teixeira is already off the payroll, and both Alex Rodriguez and Sabathia will be next offseason — also allows Cashman to consider the possibility of taking on a burdensome contract from another club that would be more manageable for the Yankes. Whether it’s achieved through free agency or trades, adding an arm that’s controllable beyond the 2017 campaign seems imperative, as the Yanks could see Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia all depart next offseason.
Turning from the rotation to the bullpen, Cashman and his staff have room to add at least one arm and could possibly pick up multiple relievers this winter. Dellin Betances, Tyler Clippard and Tommy Layne, who inked a big league deal with the Yankees following his release from the Red Sox, all figure to be locks for next year’s relief corps. Warren, too, will be in this mix unless spring injuries push him into the rotation. If the determination is made that the bullpen is the best spot for Severino, he’ll break camp in the big league ’pen as well. That leaves at least two spots somewhat unsettled.
The Yanks have internal options, of course. Jonathan Holder’s ludicrous minor league numbers earned him a late call-up and will place him in the mix for a spot next spring, and one of Green, Cessa or Mitchell could certainly end up in the ’pen as well if they’re not in the rotation. Beyond that, the Yankees have Chasen Shreve, Nick Goody, Ben Heller, James Pazos and Richard Bleier, giving them plenty of in-house means to fill out the bullpen.
That said, the one place that the free-agent market is stacked with high-end talent this winter is relief pitching, and the Yankees can certainly afford to play at the top of the market. There’s already been plenty of speculation about the Yankees making a run at a reunion with Chapman, and it won’t be a surprise if the Yanks are linked to other premium relievers like Kenley Jansen and former Yankees draftee/farmhand Mark Melancon. The Yankees’ front office saw first-hand how powerful a trio of lights-out relievers can be early this season when deploying the popular “No Runs DMC” group of Chapman, Miller and Betances. While Miller won’t be back in 2017, the Yankees could at least pair Betances with another dominant bullpen arm, and it’s possible of course that Severino emerges as a shutdown weapon to join them.
While there are questions throughout the pitching staff, the other side of the roster is more settled. If anything, the Yankees’ contingent of position players comes with the opposite problem; the team has more veterans and MLB-ready young players than spots to play them. The emergence of Sanchez behind the plate calls Brian McCann’s future with the team into question and makes him a strong candidate to be dealt this winter. There have already been rumblings connecting him to his former organization, the Braves, and other teams certainly figure to at the very least kick the tires — especially now that one of the top catching targets in free agency, Wilson Ramos, comes with an uncertain future due to a torn ACL.
McCann is owed $17MM in each of the next two seasons which is probably too steep, but if the Yankees are willing to include some cash to ease the financial burden for an acquiring team, they should find a taker. And considering the fact that McCann still hit 20 homers and turned in a league-average batting line (per park-adjusted metrics like OPS+ and wRC+), the Yankees can reasonably ask for some minor league talent in return. McCann won’t net premium prospects, but there’s still some positive trade value if the Yankees are picking up part of the tab. If no viable trade option emerges, rotating him between DH, catcher and first base is something the Yanks can afford as well, of course.
The Yankees also have enough depth in the outfield to consider moving a veteran. The nearly $90MM remaining on Jacoby Ellsbury’s deal and his full no-trade clause make trading him exceptionally difficult, but Brett Gardner’s remaining $25MM is downright reasonable. The sturdy veteran hit .261/.351/.362 with seven homers and 16 stolen bases this season while playing excellent defense in left field. And while Gardner hasn’t played center field regularly since 2013, he’s still capable at the position and could be an option for teams that consider the free-agent options too expensive and/or too risky.
Dealing Gardner, presumably to improve the rotation, would allow the Yankees to pursue a younger free agent or trade target. Alternatively, the team could stick with internal options like Mason Williams, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and perhaps Tyler Austin (who saw a bit of time in the outfield last season) to complement Ellsbury while waiting for top prospect Clint Frazier (acquired in the Miller blockbuster) to force his way onto the Major League roster. Frazier only recently turned 22 and hit just .230/.271/.385 in his first taste of Triple-A this past season, so he looks like a player who needs some more reps in the upper minors, but he could be in the team’s plans next summer if he performs well.
On the infield dirt, the Yankees have more certainty. Didi Gregorius has emerged as a strong all-around shortstop, and Cashman spoke of second baseman Starlin Castro like someone he still believes can grow, telling FOX’s Ken Rosenthal in September that Castro still has “untapped potential” and may not be done developing just yet. Said Cashman: “He’s 26, but it feels like he’s 22 or 23. He can be a great player.”
Looking to the corners, the Yankees have Chase Headley installed at third base for another two seasons. While he was one of the most criticized players in the league due to a poor April, Headley quietly turned in solid production over the season’s final five months, hitting .265/.338/.418 with 14 homers and strong defense at the hot corner. He’s not the 30-homer monster that he looked to be back with the 2012 Padres, but Headley has 15-homer pop, good plate discipline (9.6 percent walk rate) and saved seven runs with his glove in 2016 by measure of both DRS and UZR. He’s a useful and reasonably paid option at third, and while some may be receptive to the idea of moving him to make a run at an elite option like free agent Justin Turner, that would add another long-term contract to the ledger which would begin with Turner’s age-32 campaign. For a Yankees team that has prioritized getting younger, that might not be in the cards.
Across the diamond, Greg Bird is expected to be back up to full strength after missing the season due to shoulder surgery. He’ll compete with Austin for the right to fill the spot that was vacated when Teixeira retired, and it’s conceivable that both could make the roster and split time between first base, DH and (in Austin’s case) left field. The Yankees, though, also seem like a reasonable fit to target a veteran bat at first base/DH in the event that the combination of Bird and Austin doesn’t provide the necessary offensive output to man those two positions. That’s especially true if Cashman finds a trade partner for McCann, who functioned as the primary designated hitter down the stretch in September.
Edwin Encarnacion is the top name on the market in that regard, but it’s certainly possible that the Yankees don’t want to tack on a long-term commitment to a player entering his age-34 season just as their commitments to Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez drop off the ledger. If that’s the case, Cashman could wait out the market and see if a bargain emerges. After all, there are more first base/DH types available in free agency than there are teams with a need and a starting spot open. One of Brandon Moss, Pedro Alvarez, Steve Pearce, Mitch Moreland, Logan Morrison or Adam Lind could ultimately fall through the cracks and be had on a cheap short-term deal that will allow the Yankees to maintain long-term financial/roster flexibility.
The coming offseason figures to once again be an active one for the Yankees on the trade market, and it’s highly unlikely that Cashman will maintain last winter’s dormant state on the free-agent market. With a clear need in the rotation and some room for creativity both in the bullpen and the outfield, it’s not unreasonable to expect a fair number of new faces on next year’s roster. But the Yankees demonstrated in 2016 that they’re within arm’s reach of contending, and it’s easy to envision them back in the thick of the AL East race next year without a massive overhaul of the roster.
Despite a virtually unprecedented sell-off at the non-waiver trade deadline, the Yankees were in the thick of the Wild Card race through late September thanks to some significant strides from their young talent. With the path to playing time for a number of upstart players beginning to clear, they’ll look to supplement their increasingly youthful core in an effort to return to postseason play next year.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jacoby Ellsbury, OF: $89.57MM through 2020 (including $5MM buyout of 2021 club option)
- Masahiro Tanaka, RHP: $89MM through 2020 (may opt out of contract after the 2017 season)
- Brian McCann, C: $34MM through 2018 (plus 2019 club option)
- Starlin Castro, 2B: $31MM through 2019 (including $1MM buyout of 2020 club option)
- Chase Headley, 3B: $26MM through 2018
- Brett Gardner, OF: $25MM through 2018 (including $2MM buyout of 2019 club option)
- CC Sabathia, LHP: $25MM through 2017
- Tyler Clippard, RHP: $4.15MM through 2017
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)
- Michael Pineda (5.099) – $7.8MM
- Dustin Ackley (5.087) – $3.2MM
- Nathan Eovaldi (5.013) – $7.5MM
- Adam Warren (4.031) – $2.3MM
- Didi Gregorius (3.159) – $5.1MM
- Dellin Betances (3.078) – $3.4MM
- Austin Romine (3.045) – $900K
- Aaron Hicks (3.041) – $1.4MM
- Tommy Layne (2.139) – $1.2MM
- Non-tender candidates: Ackley, Eovaldi
Other Financial Commitments
- Alex Rodriguez, DH: $21MM through 2017
Free Agents
- Mark Teixeira (retiring), Billy Butler
Few would’ve pegged the Yankees as likely contenders after dealing Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Carlos Beltran prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, but the team hung around in the Wild Card race, buoyed largely by the superhuman performance of rookie Gary Sanchez and late flourishes from arms like CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Masahiro Tanaka — each of whom was excellent in September.
However, while Sabathia, Pineda and Tanaka each finished strong, that performance is potentially misleading. Each member of that trio entered the 2016 campaign with significant health questions — Sabathia’s knee, Pineda’s shoulder, Tanaka’s elbow — and it’d be unwise to expect that group to combine for 30 starts apiece once again in 2017. With the loss of Nathan Eovaldi to Tommy John/flexor repair surgery, the Yankees’ pitching depth took a further hit, leaving it unclear as to exactly who can shoulder the load for the rotation next season.
Certainly, Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia are penciled into the mix, but the two additional spots beyond that group of veterans is up for grabs. Chad Green, Luis Severino, Bryan Mitchell and Luis Cessa are all candidates, and Adam Warren has done his share of starting for the Yankees in the past as well. But it’s not entirely clear that Severino’s future is in the rotation after a ghastly 8.50 ERA as a starter (47 2/3 innings) against a ridiculous 0.39 ERA as a reliever (23 1/3 innings). Obviously, those are small samples, but questions about Severino’s long-term ability to start date back to his days as a prospect, and the 2016 season certainly lends some credence to those who advocate for him to join Dellin Betances as a rotation prospect that instead thrives as a power arm in the bullpen. The 52 strikeouts that Green piled up in just 45 2/3 innings make him the next-most intriguing name of the bunch, but he finished the season on the shelf due to a flexor strain of his own, so there’s little certainty with regard to the 25-year-old.
The free-agent market is notoriously thin this offseason, though if GM Brian Cashman wants to utilize the financial flexibility he gained via the retirement of Mark Teixeira and the shedding of the Beltran, Chapman and Miller contracts to chase upside, the Yankees can certainly afford to beat the market for Rich Hill. The 36-year-old’s renaissance has been one of the most remarkable storylines of the past season, and Hill is unquestionably the only thing resembling a top-of-the-rotation pitcher on the free-agent market. He’d add his own laundry list of injury question marks to the Yankees’ ledger, of course, but Hill’s 2.21 ERA and 178-to-39 K/BB ratio across his past 146 1/3 big league innings (postseason included) are difficult to ignore.
The other top names on the market include Jeremy Hellickson, who figures to reject a qualifying offer (which curbed the Yankees’ free-agent pursuits last winter in an offseason in which they remarkably elected not to sign a single MLB free agent), and former Yankee Ivan Nova. Bounceback arms will be plentiful, with the likes of Charlie Morton, Brett Anderson, Bud Norris, Jake Peavy and Henderson Alvarez all available if they’re comfortable trying to reestablish themselves in the tight confines of Yankee Stadium.
The trade market represents Cashman’s other primary avenue to a big league rotation piece, but the GM has indicated that he doesn’t think he’s at the point where he’s ready to offload a newly acquired plethora of high-end minor league talent in order to procure a front-line starter. That could be a smokescreen and could change as opportunities arise throughout the offseason, but for now it sounds like Yankees fans should think more along the lines of Ervin Santana than Chris Sale or Chris Archer when it comes to trade targets. The subtraction of a number of a number of expensive commitments — Teixeira is already off the payroll, and both Alex Rodriguez and Sabathia will be next offseason — also allows Cashman to consider the possibility of taking on a burdensome contract from another club that would be more manageable for the Yankes. Whether it’s achieved through free agency or trades, adding an arm that’s controllable beyond the 2017 campaign seems imperative, as the Yanks could see Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia all depart next offseason.
Turning from the rotation to the bullpen, Cashman and his staff have room to add at least one arm and could possibly pick up multiple relievers this winter. Dellin Betances, Tyler Clippard and Tommy Layne, who inked a big league deal with the Yankees following his release from the Red Sox, all figure to be locks for next year’s relief corps. Warren, too, will be in this mix unless spring injuries push him into the rotation. If the determination is made that the bullpen is the best spot for Severino, he’ll break camp in the big league ’pen as well. That leaves at least two spots somewhat unsettled.
The Yanks have internal options, of course. Jonathan Holder’s ludicrous minor league numbers earned him a late call-up and will place him in the mix for a spot next spring, and one of Green, Cessa or Mitchell could certainly end up in the ’pen as well if they’re not in the rotation. Beyond that, the Yankees have Chasen Shreve, Nick Goody, Ben Heller, James Pazos and Richard Bleier, giving them plenty of in-house means to fill out the bullpen.
That said, the one place that the free-agent market is stacked with high-end talent this winter is relief pitching, and the Yankees can certainly afford to play at the top of the market. There’s already been plenty of speculation about the Yankees making a run at a reunion with Chapman, and it won’t be a surprise if the Yanks are linked to other premium relievers like Kenley Jansen and former Yankees draftee/farmhand Mark Melancon. The Yankees’ front office saw first-hand how powerful a trio of lights-out relievers can be early this season when deploying the popular “No Runs DMC” group of Chapman, Miller and Betances. While Miller won’t be back in 2017, the Yankees could at least pair Betances with another dominant bullpen arm, and it’s possible of course that Severino emerges as a shutdown weapon to join them.
While there are questions throughout the pitching staff, the other side of the roster is more settled. If anything, the Yankees’ contingent of position players comes with the opposite problem; the team has more veterans and MLB-ready young players than spots to play them. The emergence of Sanchez behind the plate calls Brian McCann’s future with the team into question and makes him a strong candidate to be dealt this winter. There have already been rumblings connecting him to his former organization, the Braves, and other teams certainly figure to at the very least kick the tires — especially now that one of the top catching targets in free agency, Wilson Ramos, comes with an uncertain future due to a torn ACL.
McCann is owed $17MM in each of the next two seasons which is probably too steep, but if the Yankees are willing to include some cash to ease the financial burden for an acquiring team, they should find a taker. And considering the fact that McCann still hit 20 homers and turned in a league-average batting line (per park-adjusted metrics like OPS+ and wRC+), the Yankees can reasonably ask for some minor league talent in return. McCann won’t net premium prospects, but there’s still some positive trade value if the Yankees are picking up part of the tab. If no viable trade option emerges, rotating him between DH, catcher and first base is something the Yanks can afford as well, of course.
The Yankees also have enough depth in the outfield to consider moving a veteran. The nearly $90MM remaining on Jacoby Ellsbury’s deal and his full no-trade clause make trading him exceptionally difficult, but Brett Gardner’s remaining $25MM is downright reasonable. The sturdy veteran hit .261/.351/.362 with seven homers and 16 stolen bases this season while playing excellent defense in left field. And while Gardner hasn’t played center field regularly since 2013, he’s still capable at the position and could be an option for teams that consider the free-agent options too expensive and/or too risky.
Dealing Gardner, presumably to improve the rotation, would allow the Yankees to pursue a younger free agent or trade target. Alternatively, the team could stick with internal options like Mason Williams, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and perhaps Tyler Austin (who saw a bit of time in the outfield last season) to complement Ellsbury while waiting for top prospect Clint Frazier (acquired in the Miller blockbuster) to force his way onto the Major League roster. Frazier only recently turned 22 and hit just .230/.271/.385 in his first taste of Triple-A this past season, so he looks like a player who needs some more reps in the upper minors, but he could be in the team’s plans next summer if he performs well.
On the infield dirt, the Yankees have more certainty. Didi Gregorius has emerged as a strong all-around shortstop, and Cashman spoke of second baseman Starlin Castro like someone he still believes can grow, telling FOX’s Ken Rosenthal in September that Castro still has “untapped potential” and may not be done developing just yet. Said Cashman: “He’s 26, but it feels like he’s 22 or 23. He can be a great player.”
Looking to the corners, the Yankees have Chase Headley installed at third base for another two seasons. While he was one of the most criticized players in the league due to a poor April, Headley quietly turned in solid production over the season’s final five months, hitting .265/.338/.418 with 14 homers and strong defense at the hot corner. He’s not the 30-homer monster that he looked to be back with the 2012 Padres, but Headley has 15-homer pop, good plate discipline (9.6 percent walk rate) and saved seven runs with his glove in 2016 by measure of both DRS and UZR. He’s a useful and reasonably paid option at third, and while some may be receptive to the idea of moving him to make a run at an elite option like free agent Justin Turner, that would add another long-term contract to the ledger which would begin with Turner’s age-32 campaign. For a Yankees team that has prioritized getting younger, that might not be in the cards.
Across the diamond, Greg Bird is expected to be back up to full strength after missing the season due to shoulder surgery. He’ll compete with Austin for the right to fill the spot that was vacated when Teixeira retired, and it’s conceivable that both could make the roster and split time between first base, DH and (in Austin’s case) left field. The Yankees, though, also seem like a reasonable fit to target a veteran bat at first base/DH in the event that the combination of Bird and Austin doesn’t provide the necessary offensive output to man those two positions. That’s especially true if Cashman finds a trade partner for McCann, who functioned as the primary designated hitter down the stretch in September.
Edwin Encarnacion is the top name on the market in that regard, but it’s certainly possible that the Yankees don’t want to tack on a long-term commitment to a player entering his age-34 season just as their commitments to Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez drop off the ledger. If that’s the case, Cashman could wait out the market and see if a bargain emerges. After all, there are more first base/DH types available in free agency than there are teams with a need and a starting spot open. One of Brandon Moss, Pedro Alvarez, Steve Pearce, Mitch Moreland, Logan Morrison or Adam Lind could ultimately fall through the cracks and be had on a cheap short-term deal that will allow the Yankees to maintain long-term financial/roster flexibility.
The coming offseason figures to once again be an active one for the Yankees on the trade market, and it’s highly unlikely that Cashman will maintain last winter’s dormant state on the free-agent market. With a clear need in the rotation and some room for creativity both in the bullpen and the outfield, it’s not unreasonable to expect a fair number of new faces on next year’s roster. But the Yankees demonstrated in 2016 that they’re within arm’s reach of contending, and it’s easy to envision them back in the thick of the AL East race next year without a massive overhaul of the roster.
Tuesday, November 1, 2016
MLBTR Offseason Outlook for the New York Yankees
From MLB Trade Rumors seen here:
Despite a virtually unprecedented sell-off at the non-waiver trade deadline, the Yankees were in the thick of the Wild Card race through late September thanks to some significant strides from their young talent. With the path to playing time for a number of upstart players beginning to clear, they’ll look to supplement their increasingly youthful core in an effort to return to postseason play next year.
Guaranteed Contracts
Few would’ve pegged the Yankees as likely contenders after dealing Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Carlos Beltran prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, but the team hung around in the Wild Card race, buoyed largely by the superhuman performance of rookie Gary Sanchez and late flourishes from arms like CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Masahiro Tanaka — each of whom was excellent in September.
However, while Sabathia, Pineda and Tanaka each finished strong, that performance is potentially misleading. Each member of that trio entered the 2016 campaign with significant health questions — Sabathia’s knee, Pineda’s shoulder, Tanaka’s elbow — and it’d be unwise to expect that group to combine for 30 starts apiece once again in 2017. With the loss of Nathan Eovaldi to Tommy John/flexor repair surgery, the Yankees’ pitching depth took a further hit, leaving it unclear as to exactly who can shoulder the load for the rotation next season.
Certainly, Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia are penciled into the mix, but the two additional spots beyond that group of veterans is up for grabs. Chad Green, Luis Severino, Bryan Mitchell and Luis Cessa are all candidates, and Adam Warren has done his share of starting for the Yankees in the past as well. But it’s not entirely clear that Severino’s future is in the rotation after a ghastly 8.50 ERA as a starter (47 2/3 innings) against a ridiculous 0.39 ERA as a reliever (23 1/3 innings). Obviously, those are small samples, but questions about Severino’s long-term ability to start date back to his days as a prospect, and the 2016 season certainly lends some credence to those who advocate for him to join Dellin Betances as a rotation prospect that instead thrives as a power arm in the bullpen. The 52 strikeouts that Green piled up in just 45 2/3 innings make him the next-most intriguing name of the bunch, but he finished the season on the shelf due to a flexor strain of his own, so there’s little certainty with regard to the 25-year-old.
The free-agent market is notoriously thin this offseason, though if GM Brian Cashman wants to utilize the financial flexibility he gained via the retirement of Mark Teixeira and the shedding of the Beltran, Chapman and Miller contracts to chase upside, the Yankees can certainly afford to beat the market for Rich Hill. The 36-year-old’s renaissance has been one of the most remarkable storylines of the past season, and Hill is unquestionably the only thing resembling a top-of-the-rotation pitcher on the free-agent market. He’d add his own laundry list of injury question marks to the Yankees’ ledger, of course, but Hill’s 2.21 ERA and 178-to-39 K/BB ratio across his past 146 1/3 big league innings (postseason included) are difficult to ignore.
The other top names on the market include Jeremy Hellickson, who figures to reject a qualifying offer (which curbed the Yankees’ free-agent pursuits last winter in an offseason in which they remarkably elected not to sign a single MLB free agent), and former Yankee Ivan Nova. Bounceback arms will be plentiful, with the likes of Charlie Morton, Brett Anderson, Bud Norris, Jake Peavy and Henderson Alvarez all available if they’re comfortable trying to reestablish themselves in the tight confines of Yankee Stadium.
The trade market represents Cashman’s other primary avenue to a big league rotation piece, but the GM has indicated that he doesn’t think he’s at the point where he’s ready to offload a newly acquired plethora of high-end minor league talent in order to procure a front-line starter. That could be a smokescreen and could change as opportunities arise throughout the offseason, but for now it sounds like Yankees fans should think more along the lines of Ervin Santana than Chris Sale or Chris Archer when it comes to trade targets. The subtraction of a number of a number of expensive commitments — Teixeira is already off the payroll, and both Alex Rodriguez and Sabathia will be next offseason — also allows Cashman to consider the possibility of taking on a burdensome contract from another club that would be more manageable for the Yankes. Whether it’s achieved through free agency or trades, adding an arm that’s controllable beyond the 2017 campaign seems imperative, as the Yanks could see Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia all depart next offseason.
Turning from the rotation to the bullpen, Cashman and his staff have room to add at least one arm and could possibly pick up multiple relievers this winter. Dellin Betances, Tyler Clippard and Tommy Layne, who inked a big league deal with the Yankees following his release from the Red Sox, all figure to be locks for next year’s relief corps. Warren, too, will be in this mix unless spring injuries push him into the rotation. If the determination is made that the bullpen is the best spot for Severino, he’ll break camp in the big league ’pen as well. That leaves at least two spots somewhat unsettled.
The Yanks have internal options, of course. Jonathan Holder’s ludicrous minor league numbers earned him a late call-up and will place him in the mix for a spot next spring, and one of Green, Cessa or Mitchell could certainly end up in the ’pen as well if they’re not in the rotation. Beyond that, the Yankees have Chasen Shreve, Nick Goody, Ben Heller, James Pazos and Richard Bleier, giving them plenty of in-house means to fill out the bullpen.
That said, the one place that the free-agent market is stacked with high-end talent this winter is relief pitching, and the Yankees can certainly afford to play at the top of the market. There’s already been plenty of speculation about the Yankees making a run at a reunion with Chapman, and it won’t be a surprise if the Yanks are linked to other premium relievers like Kenley Jansen and former Yankees draftee/farmhand Mark Melancon. The Yankees’ front office saw first-hand how powerful a trio of lights-out relievers can be early this season when deploying the popular “No Runs DMC” group of Chapman, Miller and Betances. While Miller won’t be back in 2017, the Yankees could at least pair Betances with another dominant bullpen arm, and it’s possible of course that Severino emerges as a shutdown weapon to join them.
While there are questions throughout the pitching staff, the other side of the roster is more settled. If anything, the Yankees’ contingent of position players comes with the opposite problem; the team has more veterans and MLB-ready young players than spots to play them. The emergence of Sanchez behind the plate calls Brian McCann’s future with the team into question and makes him a strong candidate to be dealt this winter. There have already been rumblings connecting him to his former organization, the Braves, and other teams certainly figure to at the very least kick the tires — especially now that one of the top catching targets in free agency, Wilson Ramos, comes with an uncertain future due to a torn ACL.
McCann is owed $17MM in each of the next two seasons which is probably too steep, but if the Yankees are willing to include some cash to ease the financial burden for an acquiring team, they should find a taker. And considering the fact that McCann still hit 20 homers and turned in a league-average batting line (per park-adjusted metrics like OPS+ and wRC+), the Yankees can reasonably ask for some minor league talent in return. McCann won’t net premium prospects, but there’s still some positive trade value if the Yankees are picking up part of the tab. If no viable trade option emerges, rotating him between DH, catcher and first base is something the Yanks can afford as well, of course.
The Yankees also have enough depth in the outfield to consider moving a veteran. The nearly $90MM remaining on Jacoby Ellsbury’s deal and his full no-trade clause make trading him exceptionally difficult, but Brett Gardner’s remaining $25MM is downright reasonable. The sturdy veteran hit .261/.351/.362 with seven homers and 16 stolen bases this season while playing excellent defense in left field. And while Gardner hasn’t played center field regularly since 2013, he’s still capable at the position and could be an option for teams that consider the free-agent options too expensive and/or too risky.
Dealing Gardner, presumably to improve the rotation, would allow the Yankees to pursue a younger free agent or trade target. Alternatively, the team could stick with internal options like Mason Williams, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and perhaps Tyler Austin (who saw a bit of time in the outfield last season) to complement Ellsbury while waiting for top prospect Clint Frazier (acquired in the Miller blockbuster) to force his way onto the Major League roster. Frazier only recently turned 22 and hit just .230/.271/.385 in his first taste of Triple-A this past season, so he looks like a player who needs some more reps in the upper minors, but he could be in the team’s plans next summer if he performs well.
On the infield dirt, the Yankees have more certainty. Didi Gregorius has emerged as a strong all-around shortstop, and Cashman spoke of second baseman Starlin Castro like someone he still believes can grow, telling FOX’s Ken Rosenthal in September that Castro still has “untapped potential” and may not be done developing just yet. Said Cashman: “He’s 26, but it feels like he’s 22 or 23. He can be a great player.”
Looking to the corners, the Yankees have Chase Headley installed at third base for another two seasons. While he was one of the most criticized players in the league due to a poor April, Headley quietly turned in solid production over the season’s final five months, hitting .265/.338/.418 with 14 homers and strong defense at the hot corner. He’s not the 30-homer monster that he looked to be back with the 2012 Padres, but Headley has 15-homer pop, good plate discipline (9.6 percent walk rate) and saved seven runs with his glove in 2016 by measure of both DRS and UZR. He’s a useful and reasonably paid option at third, and while some may be receptive to the idea of moving him to make a run at an elite option like free agent Justin Turner, that would add another long-term contract to the ledger which would begin with Turner’s age-32 campaign. For a Yankees team that has prioritized getting younger, that might not be in the cards.
Across the diamond, Greg Bird is expected to be back up to full strength after missing the season due to shoulder surgery. He’ll compete with Austin for the right to fill the spot that was vacated when Teixeira retired, and it’s conceivable that both could make the roster and split time between first base, DH and (in Austin’s case) left field. The Yankees, though, also seem like a reasonable fit to target a veteran bat at first base/DH in the event that the combination of Bird and Austin doesn’t provide the necessary offensive output to man those two positions. That’s especially true if Cashman finds a trade partner for McCann, who functioned as the primary designated hitter down the stretch in September.
Edwin Encarnacion is the top name on the market in that regard, but it’s certainly possible that the Yankees don’t want to tack on a long-term commitment to a player entering his age-34 season just as their commitments to Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez drop off the ledger. If that’s the case, Cashman could wait out the market and see if a bargain emerges. After all, there are more first base/DH types available in free agency than there are teams with a need and a starting spot open. One of Brandon Moss, Pedro Alvarez, Steve Pearce, Mitch Moreland, Logan Morrison or Adam Lind could ultimately fall through the cracks and be had on a cheap short-term deal that will allow the Yankees to maintain long-term financial/roster flexibility.
The coming offseason figures to once again be an active one for the Yankees on the trade market, and it’s highly unlikely that Cashman will maintain last winter’s dormant state on the free-agent market. With a clear need in the rotation and some room for creativity both in the bullpen and the outfield, it’s not unreasonable to expect a fair number of new faces on next year’s roster. But the Yankees demonstrated in 2016 that they’re within arm’s reach of contending, and it’s easy to envision them back in the thick of the AL East race next year without a massive overhaul of the roster.
Despite a virtually unprecedented sell-off at the non-waiver trade deadline, the Yankees were in the thick of the Wild Card race through late September thanks to some significant strides from their young talent. With the path to playing time for a number of upstart players beginning to clear, they’ll look to supplement their increasingly youthful core in an effort to return to postseason play next year.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jacoby Ellsbury, OF: $89.57MM through 2020 (including $5MM buyout of 2021 club option)
- Masahiro Tanaka, RHP: $89MM through 2020 (may opt out of contract after the 2017 season)
- Brian McCann, C: $34MM through 2018 (plus 2019 club option)
- Starlin Castro, 2B: $31MM through 2019 (including $1MM buyout of 2020 club option)
- Chase Headley, 3B: $26MM through 2018
- Brett Gardner, OF: $25MM through 2018 (including $2MM buyout of 2019 club option)
- CC Sabathia, LHP: $25MM through 2017
- Tyler Clippard, RHP: $4.15MM through 2017
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)
- Michael Pineda (5.099) – $7.8MM
- Dustin Ackley (5.087) – $3.2MM
- Nathan Eovaldi (5.013) – $7.5MM
- Adam Warren (4.031) – $2.3MM
- Didi Gregorius (3.159) – $5.1MM
- Dellin Betances (3.078) – $3.4MM
- Austin Romine (3.045) – $900K
- Aaron Hicks (3.041) – $1.4MM
- Tommy Layne (2.139) – $1.2MM
- Non-tender candidates: Ackley, Eovaldi
Other Financial Commitments
- Alex Rodriguez, DH: $21MM through 2017
Free Agents
- Mark Teixeira (retiring), Billy Butler
Few would’ve pegged the Yankees as likely contenders after dealing Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Carlos Beltran prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, but the team hung around in the Wild Card race, buoyed largely by the superhuman performance of rookie Gary Sanchez and late flourishes from arms like CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Masahiro Tanaka — each of whom was excellent in September.
However, while Sabathia, Pineda and Tanaka each finished strong, that performance is potentially misleading. Each member of that trio entered the 2016 campaign with significant health questions — Sabathia’s knee, Pineda’s shoulder, Tanaka’s elbow — and it’d be unwise to expect that group to combine for 30 starts apiece once again in 2017. With the loss of Nathan Eovaldi to Tommy John/flexor repair surgery, the Yankees’ pitching depth took a further hit, leaving it unclear as to exactly who can shoulder the load for the rotation next season.
Certainly, Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia are penciled into the mix, but the two additional spots beyond that group of veterans is up for grabs. Chad Green, Luis Severino, Bryan Mitchell and Luis Cessa are all candidates, and Adam Warren has done his share of starting for the Yankees in the past as well. But it’s not entirely clear that Severino’s future is in the rotation after a ghastly 8.50 ERA as a starter (47 2/3 innings) against a ridiculous 0.39 ERA as a reliever (23 1/3 innings). Obviously, those are small samples, but questions about Severino’s long-term ability to start date back to his days as a prospect, and the 2016 season certainly lends some credence to those who advocate for him to join Dellin Betances as a rotation prospect that instead thrives as a power arm in the bullpen. The 52 strikeouts that Green piled up in just 45 2/3 innings make him the next-most intriguing name of the bunch, but he finished the season on the shelf due to a flexor strain of his own, so there’s little certainty with regard to the 25-year-old.
The free-agent market is notoriously thin this offseason, though if GM Brian Cashman wants to utilize the financial flexibility he gained via the retirement of Mark Teixeira and the shedding of the Beltran, Chapman and Miller contracts to chase upside, the Yankees can certainly afford to beat the market for Rich Hill. The 36-year-old’s renaissance has been one of the most remarkable storylines of the past season, and Hill is unquestionably the only thing resembling a top-of-the-rotation pitcher on the free-agent market. He’d add his own laundry list of injury question marks to the Yankees’ ledger, of course, but Hill’s 2.21 ERA and 178-to-39 K/BB ratio across his past 146 1/3 big league innings (postseason included) are difficult to ignore.
The other top names on the market include Jeremy Hellickson, who figures to reject a qualifying offer (which curbed the Yankees’ free-agent pursuits last winter in an offseason in which they remarkably elected not to sign a single MLB free agent), and former Yankee Ivan Nova. Bounceback arms will be plentiful, with the likes of Charlie Morton, Brett Anderson, Bud Norris, Jake Peavy and Henderson Alvarez all available if they’re comfortable trying to reestablish themselves in the tight confines of Yankee Stadium.
The trade market represents Cashman’s other primary avenue to a big league rotation piece, but the GM has indicated that he doesn’t think he’s at the point where he’s ready to offload a newly acquired plethora of high-end minor league talent in order to procure a front-line starter. That could be a smokescreen and could change as opportunities arise throughout the offseason, but for now it sounds like Yankees fans should think more along the lines of Ervin Santana than Chris Sale or Chris Archer when it comes to trade targets. The subtraction of a number of a number of expensive commitments — Teixeira is already off the payroll, and both Alex Rodriguez and Sabathia will be next offseason — also allows Cashman to consider the possibility of taking on a burdensome contract from another club that would be more manageable for the Yankes. Whether it’s achieved through free agency or trades, adding an arm that’s controllable beyond the 2017 campaign seems imperative, as the Yanks could see Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia all depart next offseason.
Turning from the rotation to the bullpen, Cashman and his staff have room to add at least one arm and could possibly pick up multiple relievers this winter. Dellin Betances, Tyler Clippard and Tommy Layne, who inked a big league deal with the Yankees following his release from the Red Sox, all figure to be locks for next year’s relief corps. Warren, too, will be in this mix unless spring injuries push him into the rotation. If the determination is made that the bullpen is the best spot for Severino, he’ll break camp in the big league ’pen as well. That leaves at least two spots somewhat unsettled.
The Yanks have internal options, of course. Jonathan Holder’s ludicrous minor league numbers earned him a late call-up and will place him in the mix for a spot next spring, and one of Green, Cessa or Mitchell could certainly end up in the ’pen as well if they’re not in the rotation. Beyond that, the Yankees have Chasen Shreve, Nick Goody, Ben Heller, James Pazos and Richard Bleier, giving them plenty of in-house means to fill out the bullpen.
That said, the one place that the free-agent market is stacked with high-end talent this winter is relief pitching, and the Yankees can certainly afford to play at the top of the market. There’s already been plenty of speculation about the Yankees making a run at a reunion with Chapman, and it won’t be a surprise if the Yanks are linked to other premium relievers like Kenley Jansen and former Yankees draftee/farmhand Mark Melancon. The Yankees’ front office saw first-hand how powerful a trio of lights-out relievers can be early this season when deploying the popular “No Runs DMC” group of Chapman, Miller and Betances. While Miller won’t be back in 2017, the Yankees could at least pair Betances with another dominant bullpen arm, and it’s possible of course that Severino emerges as a shutdown weapon to join them.
While there are questions throughout the pitching staff, the other side of the roster is more settled. If anything, the Yankees’ contingent of position players comes with the opposite problem; the team has more veterans and MLB-ready young players than spots to play them. The emergence of Sanchez behind the plate calls Brian McCann’s future with the team into question and makes him a strong candidate to be dealt this winter. There have already been rumblings connecting him to his former organization, the Braves, and other teams certainly figure to at the very least kick the tires — especially now that one of the top catching targets in free agency, Wilson Ramos, comes with an uncertain future due to a torn ACL.
McCann is owed $17MM in each of the next two seasons which is probably too steep, but if the Yankees are willing to include some cash to ease the financial burden for an acquiring team, they should find a taker. And considering the fact that McCann still hit 20 homers and turned in a league-average batting line (per park-adjusted metrics like OPS+ and wRC+), the Yankees can reasonably ask for some minor league talent in return. McCann won’t net premium prospects, but there’s still some positive trade value if the Yankees are picking up part of the tab. If no viable trade option emerges, rotating him between DH, catcher and first base is something the Yanks can afford as well, of course.
The Yankees also have enough depth in the outfield to consider moving a veteran. The nearly $90MM remaining on Jacoby Ellsbury’s deal and his full no-trade clause make trading him exceptionally difficult, but Brett Gardner’s remaining $25MM is downright reasonable. The sturdy veteran hit .261/.351/.362 with seven homers and 16 stolen bases this season while playing excellent defense in left field. And while Gardner hasn’t played center field regularly since 2013, he’s still capable at the position and could be an option for teams that consider the free-agent options too expensive and/or too risky.
Dealing Gardner, presumably to improve the rotation, would allow the Yankees to pursue a younger free agent or trade target. Alternatively, the team could stick with internal options like Mason Williams, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and perhaps Tyler Austin (who saw a bit of time in the outfield last season) to complement Ellsbury while waiting for top prospect Clint Frazier (acquired in the Miller blockbuster) to force his way onto the Major League roster. Frazier only recently turned 22 and hit just .230/.271/.385 in his first taste of Triple-A this past season, so he looks like a player who needs some more reps in the upper minors, but he could be in the team’s plans next summer if he performs well.
On the infield dirt, the Yankees have more certainty. Didi Gregorius has emerged as a strong all-around shortstop, and Cashman spoke of second baseman Starlin Castro like someone he still believes can grow, telling FOX’s Ken Rosenthal in September that Castro still has “untapped potential” and may not be done developing just yet. Said Cashman: “He’s 26, but it feels like he’s 22 or 23. He can be a great player.”
Looking to the corners, the Yankees have Chase Headley installed at third base for another two seasons. While he was one of the most criticized players in the league due to a poor April, Headley quietly turned in solid production over the season’s final five months, hitting .265/.338/.418 with 14 homers and strong defense at the hot corner. He’s not the 30-homer monster that he looked to be back with the 2012 Padres, but Headley has 15-homer pop, good plate discipline (9.6 percent walk rate) and saved seven runs with his glove in 2016 by measure of both DRS and UZR. He’s a useful and reasonably paid option at third, and while some may be receptive to the idea of moving him to make a run at an elite option like free agent Justin Turner, that would add another long-term contract to the ledger which would begin with Turner’s age-32 campaign. For a Yankees team that has prioritized getting younger, that might not be in the cards.
Across the diamond, Greg Bird is expected to be back up to full strength after missing the season due to shoulder surgery. He’ll compete with Austin for the right to fill the spot that was vacated when Teixeira retired, and it’s conceivable that both could make the roster and split time between first base, DH and (in Austin’s case) left field. The Yankees, though, also seem like a reasonable fit to target a veteran bat at first base/DH in the event that the combination of Bird and Austin doesn’t provide the necessary offensive output to man those two positions. That’s especially true if Cashman finds a trade partner for McCann, who functioned as the primary designated hitter down the stretch in September.
Edwin Encarnacion is the top name on the market in that regard, but it’s certainly possible that the Yankees don’t want to tack on a long-term commitment to a player entering his age-34 season just as their commitments to Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez drop off the ledger. If that’s the case, Cashman could wait out the market and see if a bargain emerges. After all, there are more first base/DH types available in free agency than there are teams with a need and a starting spot open. One of Brandon Moss, Pedro Alvarez, Steve Pearce, Mitch Moreland, Logan Morrison or Adam Lind could ultimately fall through the cracks and be had on a cheap short-term deal that will allow the Yankees to maintain long-term financial/roster flexibility.
The coming offseason figures to once again be an active one for the Yankees on the trade market, and it’s highly unlikely that Cashman will maintain last winter’s dormant state on the free-agent market. With a clear need in the rotation and some room for creativity both in the bullpen and the outfield, it’s not unreasonable to expect a fair number of new faces on next year’s roster. But the Yankees demonstrated in 2016 that they’re within arm’s reach of contending, and it’s easy to envision them back in the thick of the AL East race next year without a massive overhaul of the roster.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)