Saturday, December 12, 2015

Analyzing the Castro for Warren Swap w/ a Level Head

The New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs hooked up at the Winter Meetings in Nashville for a trade that sent Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan to Chicago for second baseman Starlin Castro. That much we do know but with every trade the fans want to know who “won” the trade. That much we don’t know, at least I don’t think we know it yet. The problem with being a Yankees blogger and a Yankees fan is that the lines between the two get blurred sometimes. My fandom, as I like to call it, for both Warren and the now bench/demoted Robert Refsnyder, was absolutely getting in the way of my level headed thinking when the trade was announced Tuesday night. Now that I’ve had a few days to digest the trade I come back with a level head ready to analyze this trade for you all.

With this trade there are going to be a lot of what if’s and projections used and a lot will be left up to interpretation. That’s what happens when you send one young guy to a team for another young guy. New York didn’t trade Andrew Miller or Brett Gardner here for an established veteran piece, we don’t know what either party will receive in 2016. At best, and this may be just my opinion but many things I have read agree with it, Adam Warren is a #3 starter. At worst Warren is a weapon out of the bullpen that can give the Cubs two or three innings on Monday and save a game for them on Friday. Castro, at best, is one of the best offensive second baseman in all of Major League Baseball and at worst he’s yet another .240 hitter with occasional pop and questionable, at best,  defense.

Is a #3 starter worth one of the best offensive second baseman in the league for four seasons? Absolutely, every day of the week. That’s like sending Michael Pineda to the St. Louis Cardinals for Kolten Wong or Matt Carpenter right now straight up. You make that deal every day of the week. Warren is a free agent before the 2019 season after posting a 7-7 record and 3.29 ERA in 17 starts and 26 relief appearances in 2015. Castro, on the other hand, hit .353 after being benched and moved to second base in Chicago while hitting 10 home runs for the Cubs.

At best Robert Refsnyder could be the best Castro that Castro could be. At worst he could be yet another .240 hitter with occasional pop and questionable, at best, defense. Castro projects to be a much better player than Refsnyder and I get that you’re buying his age 26-29 seasons, also known as most of his prime, but the trade seems redundant in my eyes RIGHT NOW. This move could lead towards other moves, moves including Refsnyder, which improve the team. Guess you’ll just have to stay tuned. Right now though I am still on the fence. I think Cashman got good value out of Warren and Ryan, I think he will end up “winning” this trade, but I don’t see it as the humungous upgrade at second base that everyone else is thinking that it is.


  1. Just would like to Add that Warren has been one of our most consistent pitchers the last 3 seasons. It's not like how we traded high on Shane Greene (his rookie season) and David Phelps (after a few low seasons) previously.

    1. Both in the rotation and in the bullpen, that's what makes losing Warren so hard. We've seen so many arms get ruined, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes for example, from bouncing back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen and when we finally find one (grow one) that can do it well we trade him. Trade still seems redundant to me.

      We absolutely sold high on Shane Greene. Greene was miserable this season and ended it in AAA while we got Didi. #4 pitchers are never as valuable as every day starting shortstops. Never.

      Phelps was upgraded into Eovaldi. Using just one season as an indicator, and I hate to do that, the Yankees got the better end of the stick. Phelps was injured and was unimpressive in the National League. Even if Eovaldi under-performed to his stats, and he did, he was still a better pitcher than Phelps was and it wasn't even close.


Sorry for the Capatcha... Blame the Russians :)