I'm Just A Grumpy Old Man!

You're telling me this isn't Goose Gossage?

Let me get this out of the way...

Just because you say you don't mean any disrespect, it doesn't mean you aren't being disrespectful.

NJ.com: So when people say Mo is the great reliever ….
Gossage. “(Bleep). That’s [expletive].

Goose says that it's insulting to be compared to Mariano Rivera, seeing as how he'd regularly pitch three innings per outing, whereas Rivera and Chapman generally only throw one inning per outing. Honestly, it's a fair point. Comparing closers during Goose's era with the closers of today is very difficult. You run into the same problems when comparing hitters of today with hitters of 30+ years ago. The game is quite different now. And we'll run into that problem when comparing hitters like Mike Trout of today to the American League MVP of the 2047 season.

But when you make comments like Gossage did, you're also making assumptions. You're assuming Mariano Rivera, Aroldis Chapman, and others couldn't be effective if they regularly threw three innings at a time.

You may be right, you may be wrong. However, you'll never know so what's the point?

I tell you what I do know though... some stats. And I won't use the counting stats, because they are so dependent on how much one plays or pitches. Let's look at percentage stats.

Goose Gossage's career ERA was 3.01, his WHIP was 1.232, and he did that while averaging 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.6 walks per nine.

Mariano Rivera's career ERA was 2.21, his WHIP was 1.000, and he did that while averaging 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.0 walks per nine.

So make all the assumptions you want about Mo throwing more than one inning during most outings, but to disrespect what he's done and to feel insulted by being compared to him is downright dumb.

I've Got Til 5! - Locking Up David Robertson

I feel like we're in the calm before the storm. Or maybe the eye of the hurricane. Honestly, I'm not great with idioms, but one of those two has to fit this subject.

Even though there was a lot going on this past offseason (see the signings of Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran), there were still many fans that wanted the team to lock-up David Robertson like they did Brett Gardner. And after watching Brett Gardner play way above his 4 year/$52 million deal this season (Fangraphs has Gardner worth $19.4 million so far in 2014), I can see many more fans going nuts when it comes time to put up or shut up with D-Rob.

Too bad Gardner's effectiveness has pretty much gone to waste.

But I'm not sure anybody should be upset about that. And I'm not just talking about the fact that, up to that point, Robertson hadn't done that well as a closer, as he had eight blown saves in 14 chances between 2011 and 2013.

For starters, we don't know what Robertson meant when he said he would have signed for a discount this past offseason. My guess is that, while he wouldn't have signed for "set-up man" money, he wouldn't have demanded Jonathan Papelbon money either (note: Papelbon signed a 4 year/$50 million contract with Philadelphia two seasons ago). An extension with Robertson before this season started probably would have been in the 3 year/$30 million range. So what are we looking at now? Well, going by my very unscientific approach to estimating future contracts, I'd say somewhere around 4 years and $55 million. Although I could actually see it being a little less, as Robertson hasn't had as much closer success as Papelbon had before he signed with the Phillies. And seeing how that Philly/Paps contract has worked out could be a bad thing for the Robertson camp too.

So we're talking about the Yankees possibly having saved about $25 million, which would be spread out for three to four years. While that's a ton of money to "normal" people such as myself, we're talking about the Yankees. The same team that a lot of fans (myself included) would like to see pay Alex Rodriguez $61 million over the next three years to stay away. If this were the Florida Marlins then we'd have a reason to be ticked off at Brian Cashman for not moving on David before the season, but thankfully we're not the Marlins. The Yankees may very well give Robertson upwards of $60 million to return as the team's closer, and they won't bat an eye doing it.

Here are a few more reasons not to be upset about the Yankees not pursuing an extension with Robertson earlier...

• Jim Johnson led the American League in saves in 2012 and 2013. Today, Johnson has an ERA of 7.14 with only two saves.
• Not even a year after leading the National League in saves, Jason Motte had to have Tommy John surgery. And after returning to the St. Louis Cardinals this season he holds an ERA of 4.91 without a single save.
• Brian Wilson was masterful as the closer for the Giants in 2010, leading the NL with 48 saves, and helping his team win the World Series. After one more good season (I say "good" as an ERA of 3.11 is hardly "masterful") he had to have Tommy John surgery, and he's still having issues with his throwing elbow to this day.

Pitchers like Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman, who were effective closers for their entire careers, just don't happen often. Looking at closers right now, only two stick out as being in the Rivera/Hoffman league... Craig Kimbrell and Greg Holland. While there are other good/young closers like Kenley Jansen, Trevor Rosenthal, Steve Cishek, and Addison Reed, their higher ERAs and other stats don't instill enough confidence in me that I'd want my team to commit to them as my team's closer for years to come.

But all of this doesn't mean I don't want to see David Robertson don the pinstripes for the next 4+ years. We can't count on somebody else stepping up next year like Dellin Betances did this year. While we had Robertson to take over for Rivera as the Yankees' closer, I don't want to go through another offseason wondering who is going to fill in for Betances in the set-up role. And as good as Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman have been when it comes to building a good bullpen, eventually the scrap heap isn't going to have anything more than garbage in it.

Yeah, it's hard to find value in these things.

And even if you think somebody like Jacob Lindgren could jump into the big leagues and be awesome, wouldn't you want him in addition to David Robertson and Dellin Betances? Remember... you can never have too much talent. And that saying is especially true for the bullpen, where having one or two effective arms is just not enough. I'm sure the Detroit Tigers, whose starters have the highest fWAR in baseball, while their relievers have 6th worse, would agree. Although saying the Tigers even have one effective arm in the bullpen is a stretch.

The point I'm trying to make is this...

I completely understand why the Yankees didn't give Robertson an extension offer before the season, but at the same time it would be very smart to sign him in the offseason. And hopefully they do it during their exclusive negotiating window, and not because I'm afraid waiting any longer could cost them more money thanks to having competition for David's services, but because it's possible another team could lure him away.


By the way, I'm not retiring the list concept for this column, but "normal" articles like this will be seen more often.

David Robertson vs. Grant Balfour - The Ultimate Battle

I am growing more and more aggravated with the idea among Yankees fans that Grant Balfour should be closing for the Yankees in 2014 and not David Robertson. Instead of waste all the stats and knowledge in a comment, we have a great discussion going on in our comments section by the way for those who have missed it all these years, I thought I would rather put it into a post for all to see. I really think it is a gamble to put Balfour in the 9th inning role for the Yankees, and I want to point out that I would be more than willing to have him set up for Robertson and he has said he would be willing to pitch in the 8th, and I think it is a fools bet for anyone who thinks otherwise. I can sit up here all day on my soap box and tell you about the risks and rewards of going all in on Balfour but I would rather just show you. Read on...

One of the more common complaints about D Rob is that he walks too many batters:

D Rob's BB/9 in 2013 - 2.4

Balfour's BB/9 in 2013 - 3.9 

Another is that D Rob throws too many balls and plays with batters too much:

D Rob throws a ball 35.6% of the time in 2013

Balfour throws a ball 38.4% of the time in 2013

"But D Rob screws around too much and sees too many 3-0 counts:"

D Rob 3-0 counts seen in 2013 was 10

Balfour's 3-0 counts seen in 2013 was 14

"Well D Rob throws too many pitches!"

D Rob threw 4.02 pitches per plate appearance in 2013

Balfour threw 4.35 pitches per plate appearance in 2013

"Well closers put guys away quick!"

D Rob saw 65 0-2 counts in 2013 and threw 35 strikes in those counts

Balfour saw 58 0-2 counts in 2013 and threw 32 strikes in those counts

oh and David had 13 strike outs on three pitches in 2013

Balfour only had 12...

"Strikeouts make for a good closer:"

D Rob had 77 K's in 2013

Balfour had 72 K's in 2013

"But Balfour has more fire!"

Well you got me there. Worked for Mariano so it should work for Balfour as well. Oh wait...

Balfour gave up seven home runs to Robertson's five home runs and if you remember my BIP post on Balfour from earlier in the offseason if Balfour had pitched in Yankee Stadium in 2013 his home runs could have doubled, or more!! Double the home runs which means you add runs to the ERA, the 2.59 ERA that was already 0.55 points higher than Robertson's 2.04. You also add some points to the WHIP, the same 1.197 WHIP that was 0.157 points higher than Robertson's 1.040 WHIP in 2013. That also means lowering that 145 ERA+ to a number even farther below Robertson's 199 ERA+ in 2013.

Leave the "fact" at home that Balfour is doing it in the 9th inning and Robertson is doing it in the 8th because I don't wanna hear it. Robertson is doing it in a bigger market and in a smaller stadium in a better division with more success. It's not like Robertson has ever been given a real shot at closing anyway because if you can remember he was injured himself a mere 12 days after Mariano Rivera tore his ACL in 2012 and lost the job to Rafael Soriano, not because Robertson was necessarily bad, albeit he wasn't great, but because Soriano was too good to put back in the 8th inning. Looking at the above and using common sense tell me again why anyone wants Grant Balfour closing games in New York next season?

Steinbrenner Says Give The Job To Robertson

Hal Steinbrenner has given his endorsement to David Robertson to be the closer for the New York Yankees for the 2014 season and possibly beyond. Hal wouldn't come out and say the words" David Robertson is our closer" but he may as well said it without helping Robertson's cause in arbitration by saying :

"We're going to rely on [David] Robertson. I'm sure he'll do a good job for us"

When pressed again for an answer, not a dodge to the question, Hal responded with this:

"I think you'll have to ask [Joe] Girardi that, but that's my understanding. He's the number one candidate. Rightfully so."

Hal said it so it must be true and it's about time.

Mariano Rivera's New York Yankees Career Is Over

Mariano Rivera has been a pitcher for the New York Yankees for 19 years now, 17 of them as the Yankees closer, and his Yankees career is now over. Rivera finishes his career as the greatest closer to ever pitch in the game of baseball and spent his entire career doing so with the New York Yankees. This season did not end the way that the Yankees or Mariano wanted it to, with a World Series championship, but Mo went out on top with a healthy and productive season and I think that is all Mo wanted.

Thank you for everything you have done both on and off the field Mo and we wish you nothing but the best in all your future endeavors as long as it includes teaching those three sons of yours that cutter.

Here is Mariano's career stat line as his career comes to an end:

19 seasons played, all for the New York Yankees, and 1115 games played.

• 82-60 record with a major league record 2.21 ERA
• 8-1 record with a 0.70 ERA in the post season
• Most saves of all time with 652
• Most post season saves of all time with 42
• Most games finished in major league history with 652
• 78 games finished in the post season in 96 appearances
• Best ERA+ of all time with a 205 mark 
• 1.000 WHIP for his career (3rd lowest in major league history)
• 0.759 WHIP in the post season
• 12 men to walk on the moon, 11 earned runs against Rivera in the post season
• 56.6 career WAR
• SIX errors and has not made one since 2004 while never having more than two in a season
• 13 time All Star
• Five AL Rolaids Relief Awards, A World Series, All Star, and ALCS MVP award each, and a Babe Ruth award
• Nine times garnering an MVP vote and six times garnering a Cy Young Vote
• 5 World Series Rings in 7 chances
• Greatest of all time

Finished making $169,441,825 in his career, not bad for a fisherman's son from Panama.

Mariano went out like he wanted to on top and on the top of his game and that is really all you can ask for as a player. Thank you once again Mo for everything that you do and everything that you are, us Yankees fans do appreciate it and appreciate you.

For Mo's next trick he will install peace in the middle east.

Life Without Mo Might Not Be So Bad

Being posted as a part of Syndicated Sunday from Pinstripe Pundits. 

Thanks to Robertson, life without Mo might not be so bad after all

For the last five or six years, the concern of replacing Mariano Rivera has lingered. There was a degree of uncertainty as to when, given Mariano’s age and desire to continue playing. The Yankees’ got a taste of a Rivera-less finish to victories last year, when Rafael Soriano filled the role superbly after Mo’s injury. There was some solace when Rivera announced that he would return in 2013, but this season is different. This time, we know he’s not returning next season. It’s sad to think that we’re down to a little over a month remaining in his storied career, assuming no torrid ascent into a playoff spot.

While there is a strong case for closers being overrated, Rivera has always been head and shoulders above the fraternity of firemen. Sure, guys like Eric Gagne and Francisco Rodriguez had their runs, but they flamed out quickly. Trevor Hoffman was just about the closest to Mo in terms of production and longevity, yet even he seems miles away from Rivera’s ability. What has set Mariano apart from the rest of the pack has been his high leverage, big game performances. Gagne and K-Rod may have had better individual seasons than Rivera, but nobody has gotten it done in the postseason like Mariano has. Yes, part of Rivera’s success is the amount of postseason opportunities he’s had playing for the Yanks, but he’s more than made the most of them.

Rivera’s accomplishments will be nearly impossible to match, given the turnover in the closer role across the league. No Yankee fan will ever feel the level of comfort they used to in the 9th beginning next season. Yet, this doesn’t mean the Yankees are in trouble. They have an excellent in-house replacement: David Robertson.

Years ago, Joba Chamberlain was the heir-apparent to Mo. It’s safe to say that ship has sailed. Guys like J.B. Cox and Mark Melancon were once touted as future back-end guys (Cox flamed out, Melancon has gone on to be successful). Now, Robertson’s emergence has cast him the future closer. Although Robertson has looked good from essentially day one in the majors, his star wasn’t quite as bright until the last couple of years. Through 2011, there was one legitimate concern about Robertson’s candidacy as future closer. While the strikeouts and ability to strand runners were impressive, his walk rate often led to sweaty appearances. Now, however, he’s honed his control. He dropped his walk rate more than 5% last season, and has held it steady this year. For reference, Rivera’s career walk rate is 5.7%. The past two seasons, Robertson has posted a sturdy 7.5%. That improvement, along with consistently incredible strikeout and strand rates, have made Robertson one of the sport’s elite relievers.

Many might wonder if Robertson has the temperament to be a closer. Sabermetrics tend to discount much of the mental side of the game, and I often lean stat-side in those arguments. Often times, when a player fails in the spotlight, we declare them as mentally incapable of handling a big spot. This is a foolish post-facto assessment. A good example of this common mistake was Alex Rodriguez, who was a “choker” from 2004-2008. That went out the window after his monster 2009 postseason. Back to Robertson: will there be additional fan and media scrutiny in 2014? Absolutely, given the magnitude of the player he is replacing. However, his true talent should trump any string of poor outings. It seems like Mariano always has a bad stretch every season, but he always finds a way persevere. Robertson will too.

Robertson already is one of the best relievers in baseball, and should be one of the top closers next season. Most of my confidence is due to improved control, but I must admit that I also agree with the belief that the difficulty of closing tends to be embellished. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying Rivera is overrated. His postseason accomplishments are unprecedented. But as for the regular season closing duties, the only difference we may notice is the man putting out the fire.