I've Got Til 5! - Locking Up David Robertson

I feel like we're in the calm before the storm. Or maybe the eye of the hurricane. Honestly, I'm not great with idioms, but one of those two has to fit this subject.

Even though there was a lot going on this past offseason (see the signings of Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran), there were still many fans that wanted the team to lock-up David Robertson like they did Brett Gardner. And after watching Brett Gardner play way above his 4 year/$52 million deal this season (Fangraphs has Gardner worth $19.4 million so far in 2014), I can see many more fans going nuts when it comes time to put up or shut up with D-Rob.

Too bad Gardner's effectiveness has pretty much gone to waste.

But I'm not sure anybody should be upset about that. And I'm not just talking about the fact that, up to that point, Robertson hadn't done that well as a closer, as he had eight blown saves in 14 chances between 2011 and 2013.

For starters, we don't know what Robertson meant when he said he would have signed for a discount this past offseason. My guess is that, while he wouldn't have signed for "set-up man" money, he wouldn't have demanded Jonathan Papelbon money either (note: Papelbon signed a 4 year/$50 million contract with Philadelphia two seasons ago). An extension with Robertson before this season started probably would have been in the 3 year/$30 million range. So what are we looking at now? Well, going by my very unscientific approach to estimating future contracts, I'd say somewhere around 4 years and $55 million. Although I could actually see it being a little less, as Robertson hasn't had as much closer success as Papelbon had before he signed with the Phillies. And seeing how that Philly/Paps contract has worked out could be a bad thing for the Robertson camp too.

So we're talking about the Yankees possibly having saved about $25 million, which would be spread out for three to four years. While that's a ton of money to "normal" people such as myself, we're talking about the Yankees. The same team that a lot of fans (myself included) would like to see pay Alex Rodriguez $61 million over the next three years to stay away. If this were the Florida Marlins then we'd have a reason to be ticked off at Brian Cashman for not moving on David before the season, but thankfully we're not the Marlins. The Yankees may very well give Robertson upwards of $60 million to return as the team's closer, and they won't bat an eye doing it.

Here are a few more reasons not to be upset about the Yankees not pursuing an extension with Robertson earlier...

• Jim Johnson led the American League in saves in 2012 and 2013. Today, Johnson has an ERA of 7.14 with only two saves.
• Not even a year after leading the National League in saves, Jason Motte had to have Tommy John surgery. And after returning to the St. Louis Cardinals this season he holds an ERA of 4.91 without a single save.
• Brian Wilson was masterful as the closer for the Giants in 2010, leading the NL with 48 saves, and helping his team win the World Series. After one more good season (I say "good" as an ERA of 3.11 is hardly "masterful") he had to have Tommy John surgery, and he's still having issues with his throwing elbow to this day.

Pitchers like Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman, who were effective closers for their entire careers, just don't happen often. Looking at closers right now, only two stick out as being in the Rivera/Hoffman league... Craig Kimbrell and Greg Holland. While there are other good/young closers like Kenley Jansen, Trevor Rosenthal, Steve Cishek, and Addison Reed, their higher ERAs and other stats don't instill enough confidence in me that I'd want my team to commit to them as my team's closer for years to come.

But all of this doesn't mean I don't want to see David Robertson don the pinstripes for the next 4+ years. We can't count on somebody else stepping up next year like Dellin Betances did this year. While we had Robertson to take over for Rivera as the Yankees' closer, I don't want to go through another offseason wondering who is going to fill in for Betances in the set-up role. And as good as Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman have been when it comes to building a good bullpen, eventually the scrap heap isn't going to have anything more than garbage in it.

Yeah, it's hard to find value in these things.

And even if you think somebody like Jacob Lindgren could jump into the big leagues and be awesome, wouldn't you want him in addition to David Robertson and Dellin Betances? Remember... you can never have too much talent. And that saying is especially true for the bullpen, where having one or two effective arms is just not enough. I'm sure the Detroit Tigers, whose starters have the highest fWAR in baseball, while their relievers have 6th worse, would agree. Although saying the Tigers even have one effective arm in the bullpen is a stretch.

The point I'm trying to make is this...

I completely understand why the Yankees didn't give Robertson an extension offer before the season, but at the same time it would be very smart to sign him in the offseason. And hopefully they do it during their exclusive negotiating window, and not because I'm afraid waiting any longer could cost them more money thanks to having competition for David's services, but because it's possible another team could lure him away.


By the way, I'm not retiring the list concept for this column, but "normal" articles like this will be seen more often.