2017 Qualifying Offer Predictions

Ten players received qualifying offers as the offseason before the 2017 MLB season began and like I do every year I want to take a stab at predicting who will accept and who will decline their offers. Now as you probably already know the qualifying offer is basically a one-year deal offer sheet worth $17.2 million that the player can either accept and return to his old team or decline in order to test free agency. If the player declines and signs with another team that team will lose their highest round draft pick (unless it’s a Top 10 protected pick) and the players former team will receive a sandwich pick as compensation in between the first and second rounds of the 2017 MLB Draft. Now you know so let’s get to the predictions.

Jose Bautista

Edwin Encarnacion

Yoenis Cespedes

Neil Walker

Dexter Fowler

Kenley Jansen

Justin Turner

Mark Trumbo

Ian Desmond

Jeremy Hellickson

Honestly, and I may even admittedly be reaching here, the only player I can see accepting a qualifying offer is Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson has come into his own as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies and while he may use that to cash in on the free agency market I just have a gut feeling that he may accept. I thought the same with players like Matt Wieters and Brett Anderson last year and I get the same gut feeling with Hellickson. It wouldn’t surprise me to see none of these players accept it but it would surprise me if anyone besides Hellickson did.

Players have until November 14^th to accept or decline their qualifying offers. 

Recap: Rangers 10, Yankees 1

There are nights when everything goes well, and then there are nights when nothing goes well.

Tuesday's Yankees game fit neatly into the latter category.

Luis Severino got hammered for six earned runs in three innings, and the Yankees fell 10-1 to the Rangers without much of a fight.

The Rangers took a 1-0 lead in the first on a Prince Fielder RBI single, but it was in the third when the home team really pulled away.

After Severino logged the first two outs with ease, Texas put two on with back-to-back hits -- prompting Severino to load the bases with an intentional walk of Fielder. The strategy failed, however; the next man up, Ian Desmond, drew a walk of his own, and from there the floodgates were opened.

Mitch Moreland ripped a two-run single to center, Severino let another run cross on a wild pitch, and Elvis Andrus plated one more with line-drive to left.

Before you knew it, the Yankees were down 6-0 and Severino was on his way to a third straight loss.

In relief of the youngster, Ivan Nova was solid, working four innings and allowing three earned runs. His outing saved the rest of the bullpen -- with the exception of Chasen Shreve -- from similar mop-up duty, keeping the club's late-inning duo of Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller available for Wednesday's finale.

But that's about the only positive the Yankees can salvage from this blowout.

The Yanks' bats managed just four hits in eight innings against right-hander A.J. Griffin, who walked one and struck out five. Their lone run came in the seventh, when Mark Teixeira cracked a single with runners on the corners.

Needless to say, the Yankees will be hoping for a better result in the rubber game.

WHAT IT MEANS: The Yankees suffered their worst defeat of the season, dropping their record to 8-11. They are 0-4 this year with Severino on the mound.

NEXT UP: The Yankees and Rangers wrap up this series on Wednesday. CC Sabathia (1-1, 5.28 ERA) and Martin Perez (0-2, 4.50 ERA) are slated to be your starters, with first pitch set for 8:05 p.m. ET.

The Montreal Expos: And Then There Was One

Before the Washington Nationals had Bryce Harper roaming the outfield of Nationals Park and before the team had an ace starting pitcher with one brown eye and one blue eye the team played their games in Canada, Montreal to be exact. The Montreal Expos were once the team that gave teams like the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets fits in the National League East before making the move to Washington before the 2005 season. As the Nationals organization gets older the original players that once donned Expos uniforms begin to become fewer and farther between until we reach just one, Bartolo Colon.

Bartolo Colon of the New York Mets is now the final active member in Major League Baseball to ever wear a Montreal Expos uniform. And then there was one but until a few days ago there was two, the other being Maicer Izturis of the Toronto Blue Jays. Izturis announced his retirement this week after signing a minor league deal with the club because his body couldn’t do it anymore.

Colon turns 43-years old in May and is four years older than Bruce Chen, another former Expos pitcher who last pitched in 2015, and is seven years the elder of Izturis. Colon pitched a half-season with Montreal in 2002 after the Expos acquired him from the Cleveland Indians at age 29. By the way, in return for Colon the Indians were able to pry away a lefty named Cliff Lee, an infielder named Brandon Phillips and an outfielder named Grady Sizemore. No wonder the league wanted to contract the Expos.

Also as an FYI one of the last Expos to ever be drafted is still around as well, Ian Desmond. Desmond will spend the 2016 season with the Texas Rangers after the Expos drafted him. Desmond did not make him MLB debut until the team had already moved to Washington under a new team name.

Colon is still a very serviceable Major Leaguer and still a valuable piece of the New York Mets so who knows, we may still be talking about the last man standing in a Expos uniform five-to-ten years from now. I hope so anyway!

Ian Desmond Wants Free Agency to Change

The Texas Rangers got some of the worst news possible at possibly the worst possible time this year and the organization was left scrambling for help. The team learned that Josh Hamilton, shocker I know, was injured and would likely begin another MLB season on the disabled list leaving a huge hole in their lineup and in their outfield. Thankfully for Texas and thankfully for the former Washington National Ian Desmond that he was still on the free agency market. The former shortstop and second baseman signed a one-year deal to play the outfield in Texas thus ending his free agency experiment, an experiment that he wants to see changed before next season.

Desmond wants free agency changed after turning down a seven-year deal worth $107 million contract extension and a qualifying offer worth one-year and $15.8 million to sign a one-year deal with Washington worth $8 million. Sure Desmond said all the right things in front of the media with his new teammates in front of his new locker but he also expected these things to be fixed before he hits free agency again admitting a certain frustration and an anger towards the whole system. Desmond admitted that something needs to change and wants something to change and who could blame him?

Desmond, despite being one of only six players with at least 100 home runs and 100 stolen bases since 2010, at a historically offensively anemic position mind you, along with three Silver Slugger and one All-Star nomination to his belt, basically lost $100 million over the course of a calendar year. Who could blame him for wanting to change free agency? Then again who could blame him or turning down a guaranteed $107 million and a guaranteed $15.8 million on separate occasions either? Me personally I don’t feel bad for the guy, he made a business decision and it didn’t work out. Try again next year pal. You didn’t hear Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales screaming when they sat out until June because of the same process, did you? I think not. 

Ian Desmond and the New York Yankees?

Earlier on during our annual Prospects Month I discussed the state of the Yankees farm system and specifically showcased New York's plethora and stable of upcoming shortstop prospects. I broke all these shortstops down to future shortstops, assuming they stay in this organization, and future third or second baseman, again assuming they stay here in the Bronx, but the Texas Rangers gave me something else to think about when they signed former Washington Nationals shortstop and second baseman Ian Desmond. The Rangers did not sign Desmond to replace Elvis Andrus at short or to take over in the infield at all though, the team has plans of having him play in left field in Arlington Park in 2016. Is this something the Yankees could conceivably be doing with all their shortstop talent they have down on the farm?

Truth be told the Yankees have a ton of outfield prospects as well but none of them are the "can't miss" or blue chip prospects that every team covets. Ben Gamel won the MiLB Player of the Year Award in 2015 and Mason Williams, Dustin Fowler, Slade Heathcott and others look to be very usable and capable MLB pieces going forward but outside of Aaron Judge the Yankees are lacking true impact and game changing talent. Could the Yankees use all their shortstops to build a complete team full of versatility and flexibility? In a word, yes!

For the sake of consistency and not contradicting myself I will leave the likes of Jorge Mateo, Thairo Estrada, Hoy-Jun Park and Wilkerman Garcia at the shortstop position since we kept them there in previous posts here on the blog. This leaves, and this is obvious an incomplete list but I picked the most notable shortstops left in the organization, Cito Culver, Abi Avelino, Tyler Wade, Vince Conde, Angel Aguilar and Kyle Holder as potential outfielders for the club. Could any of them hack it? No pun intended.

Culver's biggest issue as a Yankees prospect has been his inability to hit, not to defend, and you need a certain amount of offense out of any outfielder leaving Culver on the outside looking in once again. Meanwhile Avelino is a small guy standing at 5'11" and weighing in at 186 lbs and has seemingly shown little in the power department hitting just seven home runs in four professional seasons. Avelino is just 21-years old but it seems unlikely he'll ever have the bat to carry him in the outfield at the Major League level. The same can be said for Wade and Holder, although Holder is still considered raw with the bat and elite defensively in the middle infield, but Angel Aguilar may have a true shot.

Aguilar is just 20-years old and has already shown a patience at the plate that could lead towards big power numbers and a higher batting average. Aguilar also has the frame for an outfielder standing at 6'0" and 170 lbs. with plenty of time still to grow into his frame and add power. As a member of the Gulf Coast Yankees Aguilar played center field, albeit for a single game, and did not look out of place giving the Yankees a glimmer of hope if they choose to move the talented middle infielder to the outfield. The Yankees need to move someone, probably multiple people, off the shortstop position to make room for them all and Aguilar may be the best bet to move from the shortstop position to the outfield.

Fantasy Baseball: So You Need a Shortstop?

The shortstop position around Major League Baseball is much like the second base position and the catcher position, offensively speaking it seems to either be feast or famine. All three positions are very top heavy with a few average replacements and a whole lot that don’t offer much in the terms of fantasy value. The shortstop position may be the most anemic of the three though which is why so many find it hard to find a suitable shortstop once the likes of Carlos Correa and the other top-tier shortstops come off the board, that’s where I come in to help. 

Carlos Correa is probably the best shortstop in the game right now while Troy Tulowitzki, in his Coors Field days anyway, and Brandon Crawford fill out the top three in no particular order. Behind them is in my opinion a steep fall off in production as far as fantasy goes so if you don’t get these three recognizable faces you may be left wondering what to do. If it was I and I missed out on one of those three I would definitely take a look at Corey Seager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Xander Bogaerts of the Boston Red Sox or Ian Desmond if he ever finds a home between now and draft day. The longer Desmond has to wait for a job, and especially if it eats up some of his spring training time, the farther away I step away from him. See Stephen Drew the year he was offered a qualifying offer, it could happen to Desmond as well. 

Behind this group of men are some rookies and young guys looking to take the next step forward towards superstardom. These players come with risks of taking a step back or having the sophomore slump but if they continue their production like they did last year they can be notable additions to your team. This list includes Francisco Lindor of the Indians, Addison Russell of the Chicago Cubs and Didi Gregorius of the New York Yankees. Some may think I think too highly of Didi or that I am letting my Yankees fandom get in the way but his stats after the first two months of the season were fantastic. Once he settled in and got comfortable he was one of the most consistent hitters in the Yankees lineup and he’s only going to get better as he matures. Again, he comes with a risk but he is a high risk and high reward type player at least. 

Speaking of Didi his teammate Starlin Castro will be eligible at second base and shortstop next season and is just 26-years old. Castro hit much better after moving to second base last season with Chicago and could be in line for a nice season in the Bronx in 2016. Behind Castro is another fall off that starts with Elvis Andrus and ends with Jhonny Peralta. These players along with Alcides Escobar, JJ Hardy, Marcus Semien and Brad Miller are what they are, you basically know what you are going to get from these players. They are not your last resort but they aren’t your first resort either, they are more marginal players as far as fantasy goes. If you miss out on one of these players, well your draft may be over unless you can find a nice sleeper pick, maybe Ketel Marte of Seattle or Jean Segura of Arizona. 

Shortstops can be a tricky position to draft unfortunately so I tend to personally go high and grab one of the top tiered players. The shortstop can make or break your draft because if you go too high on a guy and he busts or gets injured you are left reeling for the rest of your season but if you wait too long you may be stuck with a Andrelton Simmons or Adeiny Hechavarria and nobody wants that… do they?

Call Me Crazy But How About Ian Desmond On a One Year Deal?

This is a crazy thought so go ahead and call me crazy, I can take it. It is crazy but this is also The Greedy Pinstripes, not the fiscally responsible pinstripes, and the offseason is the time to dream. The sky is the limit in the offseason and almost every team is optimistic right about now, why not the Yankees as well? The Yankees roster is just about set with just a few spring training competitions to go down at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa this spring but New York could take one of those spring competitions away with one Ninja Cashman, out of left field and really freaking crazy signing that actually works. Sign Ian Desmond?

Desmond is listed as a shortstop according to Baseball Reference but he does have very limited time at second base and right field as well. Desmond, list most shortstops, are extremely athletic and has a strong throwing arms meaning that Desmond learning third base is not out of the realm of possibility and neither is a transition, at least on a part-time basis, to first base. Desmond could conceivably play any position in the Yankees infield other than catcher and truly give the Yankees a complete infield and bench.

Sure Desmond would eat up the first round draft pick of the Yankees and sure he would likely command a substantial AAV on a one-year deal but he sure does make the team a whole lot better in my opinion on both the offensive and defensive side of the baseball and that's all that should matter at the end of the day.

Sure Robert Refsnyder could be that guy, you all know by now that I prefer that scenario to come to fruition, but the Yankees have shown little to no interest in him at the major league level. Desmond pacifies the organization and pacifies the fans due to being a big name and an upgrade over what the team has. I don't think it's going to happen and I don't necessarily want it to happen as a fan but hey, it could happen.

Predicting the Rest of the Top Free Agent Destinations

Before the MLB Hot Stove season began I predicted all the top free agent destinations with varying degrees of success. When I say varying degrees of success I mean I did terrible, see HERE. I have seven correct and none of them were the top free agents on the list, so is life I guess. There are plenty of these top guys remaining including Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Davis, Ian Desmond, Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy and Howie Kendrick. I predicted them once without a single free agent coming off the board but we have a much clearer picture now so I'm going to take a second stab at it.



Justin Upton

Original Prediction: San Francisco Giants
New Prediction: Baltimore Orioles



Yoenis Cespedes

Original Prediction: Chicago White Sox
New Prediction: Chicago White Sox



Wei-Yin Chen * predicted before he signed, left up to show I'm humble :)

Original Prediction: Boston Red Sox
New Prediction: Washington Nationals



Chris Davis

Original Prediction: Washington Nationals
New Prediction: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim



Ian Desmond

Original Prediction:New York Mets
New Prediction: San Diego Padres



Yovani Gallardo

Original Prediction: Texas Rangers
New Prediction: Texas Rangers



Ian Kennedy

Original Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
New Prediction: San Diego Padres



Howie Kendrick

Original Prediction: Chicago White Sox
New Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

Best of What's Left on the Free Agency Market

The big names and the huge checks are being written this winter and the run on the second tier players is probably going to begin soon. Who is the best of what's left on the free agency market at every position?

C: Hector Sanchez
1B: Chris Davis
2B: Howie Kendrick
SS: Ian Desmond
3B: Daniel Murphy
OF: Dexter Fowler
OF: Alex Gordon
OF: Yoenis Cespedes
DH: Justin Upton

SP: Kenta Maeda
SP: Mike Leake
SP: Wei-Yin Chen
SP: Scott Kazmir

CP: Tyler Clippard
RP: Antonio Bastardo
RP: Fernando Rodney
RP: Ryan Cook

What About Ian Desmond?

You guys know me by now and know where I have stood on the Yankees second base situation for the past two seasons now, I believe the job belongs to Robert Refsnyder. Refsnyder, when given the opportunity, has done nothing but hit the ball and improve defensively in his time with the Yankees yet the team continued to give the bulk of the playing time to Stephen Drew, Brendan Ryan and Dustin Ackley. The talk for the 2016 season, however premature, if that Ackley and Refsnyder will platoon at second base to begin the season if Yankees GM Brian Cashman doesn’t bring in an alternative at the position, could that alternative be Ian Desmond?

Desmond struggled mightily for the Washington Nationals in 2015 but honestly outside of Bryce Harper, who didn’t? The team was hit by the injury bug harder than any team in the league and just had a down year overall as a collective unit. While I don’t feel like their manager Matt Williams was to blame I can’t say anything for sure since I am not in the clubhouse. If Williams was the issue then you should expect a resurgence from the team and its players in 2016, including free agent shortstop Desmond.

Desmond is a right-handed shortstop that could be moved to second base to fill the 2016 position that Stephen Drew was meant to fill in 2015. Desmond could play second base for the most part while acting as a suitable backup at shortstop and third base whenever needed. Desmond would add power and versatility to a team that is desperately needing both heading into the 2016 season and would likely come “at a bargain” considering the back of his baseball card. It seems unlikely that he would come back to Washington in 2016 and it seems even less likely that the team would risk extending him a qualifying offer meaning Desmond could be had for salary alone and would not come attached to any sort of draft pick compensation.

It’s hard to find an offensively productive everyday shortstop and if the Yankees signed Desmond to a relatively small pillow type contract to rebuild his value at second base then I would honestly have to be all for it. I want Refsnyder to get the job, everyone knows that by now, but I am coming to terms with the fact that the team does not think as highly about him as I do, and that’s okay. If the team fills the position with a player that makes sense then it’s hard to argue the logic, even if it is a 30-year old shortstop who struggled in 2015. 

Time to Buy Low on Ian Desmond?

In the two years prior to the 2015 season I already had posts up on the blog thinking about the next season’s free agent class, potential trade partners and hopeful additions coming to the club. Basically to put it plainly I had already given up on the season and I was pulling the whole “there’s always next year” plug. This year is different for me though because I feel like this team is a playoff team and potentially a special kind of team but other beat writers and bloggers are already focusing on the 2016 season despite the team’s success this season. When I got home the other night and opened my web browser I already saw a certain someone, Ken Davidoff, linking a certain team, the New York Yankees, to a certain free agent to be, Ian Desmond. What?

Ian Desmond is the Washington Nationals shortstop that is taking the brunt of the blame for the team’s struggles this season. The Nationals have suffered probably more key injuries than any team in Major League Baseball this season and Desmond, who has been healthy for much of the season, has not done his part to pick up the slack in his teammate’s absence, especially in the first half. While Desmond has been much better, although still a far cry from his breakout seasons in 2013 and 2014, in the second half many are linking him to New York as he sprints towards free agency this winter, should the Yankees bite?

Obviously selling Desmond on New York would be a hard sell because it would come with a position change to second base. The Yankees have Didi Gregorius at shortstop currently and after showing and preaching patience for much of the first two months of the season that has all paid huge dividends for the team. Gregorius has been one of the best Yankees hitters the last two or three months and has showed the ability to play stellar defense in or out of the shadow of the great Derek Jeter. Desmond would have to be willing to move to second base to supplant Stephen Drew and Robert Refsnyder if he came to New York and I just can’t see him doing that.

Desmond is still young enough where he shouldn’t be worried about chasing a ring or a potential championship, he is going to be chasing the money and security of a long-term contract this winter. Desmond plays a premium position well at shortstop that is known for its anemic offensive players, not that there are many Robinson Cano’s in their prime’s at second base either, and moving to a team that is trying to get under the luxury tax threshold in a couple of seasons just doesn’t make sense. If Desmond could hit like he did prior to 2015 and the Yankees could buy low on him with the expectations of him going to second base then sign me up. If not then I think I’ll have to pass.