Thursday, November 7, 2013

Why Granderson Should Take Qualifying Offer

There has been a ton of talk about the qualifying offer given to Curtis Granderson. And for good reason, most of that talk has been about why he should turn it down. Well I wanted to look at it from the viewpoint that he should take it.

"This should be good."

If Grandy had a history of injuries, and not of the "freak" kind, then I would completely understand him turning down the qualifying offer to get a multi-year contract now. Curtis did miss 24 games due to a strained groin in 2010, but that has never flared up again. So there's no reason for a team to look at him next year and be concerned that he's an injury risk. Unlike Jacoby Ellsbury, who is in line for the largest free agent contract this offseason, outside of Robinson Cano.

As long as Granderson's production doesn't drop significantly, then he'd easily be in line for a 3+ year contract worth around $15 million a season. And that's a low-ball guess. Torii Hunter got a 2 year contract worth $26 million going into his age 37 season, while Granderson will be three years younger next offseason. Not to mention that Curtis was more valuable, in terms of bWAR, than Hunter was in their previous three seasons (ignoring Granderson's 2013, as he missed too much time to take it seriously).

But let's say a 3 year deal worth $45 million was coming Curtis' way next offseason. Combine that with the qualifying offer, and you're talking about 4 years and $59 million.

When it comes to the kind of payday Grandy should expect, a lot of people have compared it to Nick Swisher's deal he signed last year with Cleveland. The value of that contract? Four years and $56 million.

"Very interesting."


Sorry for the Capatcha... Blame the Russians :)