Monday, December 9, 2013

Chase Headley May Or May Not Improve In New York

With all the talks surrounding the Yankees possibly trading Brett Gardner this week at the Winter Meetings on the heels of signing free agent outfielders Carlos Beltran and Jacoby Ellsbury the question has been raised what could we get for Gardner one year from free agency? First and foremost I do not want to trade away Gardner I am a huge advocate for the "speed kills" option and playing "Billy Ball" whenever it is applicable but I understand the premise. Gardner is the only chip we really have to trade that can fetch anything of use for us, I get it, but that doesn't mean that I have to like it. Anyway one name that popped up was long time Yankees target Chase Headley.

The tweets about how he would absolutely rake in Yankee Stadium when moving from Petco Park got me thinking of the new tool that I found on where it shows a players balls in play (BIP) locations from one stadium to another. Prepare to be disappointed as we look at Headley's 2013 BIP's from Petco to Yankee Stadium:

The dark blue dots, as usual, are your home run balls and as we see Headley actually benefited from Petco for one additional home run than he would have in Yankee Stadium. The light blue dots are his doubles and as you can see not a single one of those would have left Yankee Stadium, he actually may have lost three of four of them depending on the wind and all those factors that cannot be inputted into a computer. All his fly outs are still fly outs in New York, not even warning track power on a single one, so the reports of Headley destroying the ball in Yankee Stadium may be a bit exaggerated. 

Now I know what you are thinking, or should be thinking anyway, that Headley had a down year in 2013 and we should consider 2012 more so then him most recent season. Fine, here is 2012 which does look a lot better then 2013. Same colors apply and as you can see if we were trading for Headley two seasons ago we would have something to be excited about, but we're not. Granted he could come back to those type of numbers and production as he is still on the right side of 30 years old but I just hate banking on that. See below:

That is more or less what everyone was expecting, right? Headley actually loses another home run that went out of Petco that would not have gone out of Yankee Stadium in 2012 without the help of some wind, elevation, fan interference, or Pedro Cerrano voodoo magic. Six of his doubles leave Yankee Stadium, though he loses another with the foul ball dimensions being different, and even adds a home run with a fly out in the stadium. Adding six home runs or more to Headley's 2012 total of 31 home runs and you have a monster season. 

I want to reiterate that I do not want to trade Brett Gardner but if we can make this trade work with the addition of come prospects that I have barely heard of then I have to say go for it. Headley is 29 years old, and will be 30 in May, and one year away from free agency and so is Gardner while also being in his age 30 season. Both play premium positions, play exceptional defense, and would help the Yankees in 2013. Headley adds another right handed power bat to the lineup and Gardner could replace the disappointing Cameron Maybin in San Diego so the deal makes sense but it doesn't mean I have to like it. I do understand though that we need a starting third basemen right now worse then we need a starting left fielder.  


  1. Hey Daniel, who do you see starting in left field for the Yankees next season if Gardner is traded away?

  2. I guess that could work. I like Gardner, but if the Yanks can get a solid infielder for him I say do it.

  3. Jack Niemuth, good evening.
    I like Gardner also. And, I am not sure what the team is going to do. But, along with Gardner, they can now add in Nunez, a # 5 pitcher, and a catcher....for someone very solid.
    Should be an interesting week. Good luck.

  4. BRIAN ROBERTS...Baltimore Orioles...second agent.

    This guy used to kill the Yankees, just like Dustin Pedroia does....**think about it, even up,
    Dustin Pedroia, or Robinson Cano ? Imagine Pedroia at the top of the Yankee line up ?
    Brian Roberts, reminds me of Pedroia. although, Pedroia is better....Roberts was similar.
    Anyway...I'm drifting off coarse.

    Brian Roberts. just checked, he has not played much in 2-3 years. Does anyone know why?
    This dirty baseball rat is / was a good player. Is it over for him ?
    You want a character player ? A leader ? ...that's him. You can not have too many.
    I'd consider him over Infante in a heart beat.

    1. Check for PEDs.
      I'll take Pedroia over Roberts but, Trading away Nunez, Brett and some of our younger players is bad news. It's nice to have power bats but, if one looks at the history of the WS Championships, one will find, the teams built on power very seldom win the gold ring.This idea of power over speed bothers me. The teams build on Balance win more often than not!
      Good pitching can shut down power hitters much more so than hitters with good avg. and OBP.
      When we have gone up against the real good pitchers we have had a lot of trouble scoring runs. Having players such as Brett, Nunez, Itchy and Ells' getting on base may help us score runs the hard way...running the other team crazy. The runners make the pitcher throw different pitches to the speed hitter (to keep him off base) and the hitter behind him (if he got on base). Any infield ball hit, makes the infielder hurry and more chances of making a mistake.
      Having a Balanced Team has worked for many, many years, power teams have won many, many fewer WS...see Baltimore and Cleveland in the years they were the "wait for the 3 run HR".

    2. Without looking at the stats and the sabr stuff and the BIP location I cannot say I am entirely sold on Brian Roberts. Just from the eye test I can say that he has been in full decline for more then a few years now. If the Orioles aren't seemingly interested in bringing you back that should say something.

    3. Next to "The Stick" I think Showalter is one of the best judges of talent around, he and Stick helped bring in the talent for the 1996 team.
      So, that was the same thoughts I had, if Showalter didn't want him back...we don't need him!

    4. He hasn't had a fully healthy season in like four seasons now.


Sorry for the Capatcha... Blame the Russians :)