Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Brett Gardner & His History w/ Second Half Swoons


The New York Yankees are being aggressive this winter on the trade market and that mindset and aggression has already led to four separate trades for Brian Cashman and the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees are far from done there, according to reports anyway, and the names of Ivan Nova, Andrew Miller and Brett Gardner have been thrown around basically all winter long. While trading Nova makes sense and while trading Miller does not, well unless they are simply blown away, the idea of trading Gardner makes a whole lot of sense for the New York Yankees.

Gardner didn't have a spectacular season in 2015 and his second half was absolutely horrible but the Yankees hitting coach Alan Cockrell blamed a wrist injury for his struggles. Gardner did have three cortisone shots for the wrist injury, the maximum one player is allowed in a season, but there is a shocking trend that shows that, wrist or not, Gardner was probably going to struggle in the second half anyway and will likely struggle again in 2016's second half.

I Split G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+
1st Half 531 2069 317 511 79 28 38 186 203 390 .283 .360 .421 .781 .341 111
2nd Half 388 1451 202 296 57 16 18 115 151 277 .236 .326 .351 .676 .287 84
These splits are huge!These are career splits too factoring in every one of his seasons in the Major Leagues. This is a trend.

I Split G PA R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+
April/March 141 540 79 125 20 8 48 48 103 .265 .340 .372 .711 .323 93
May 164 643 100 160 20 11 56 66 116 .284 .360 .417 .777 .339 110
June 152 589 101 170 36 14 54 57 98 .328 .400 .521 .921 .382 148
July 158 626 86 129 18 11 63 75 130 .244 .343 .359 .702 .299 91
August 142 581 72 115 19 5 37 57 108 .229 .318 .325 .643 .281 75
Sept/Oct 162 541 81 108 23 7 43 51 112 .227 .308 .349 .658 .281 78
Going from .328 to .244 from June to July is an alarming trend. Dropping below .230 in September and October is even worse. If the Yankees can trade him, especially when he isn't going to be getting any better at 32-years old, they need to. Now.

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