Thursday, December 3, 2015

Who Would Actually Be Interested in Ivan Nova?


The New York Yankees are going to be aggressive this winter, at least all signs point to that statement being true, and GM Brian Cashman is willing and ready to trade anything and everything not tied down. All winter long we’ve heard or come up with our own Brett Gardner trade rumors or Andrew Miller trade proposals but one name may be more intriguing than both of them, Ivan Nova. Yes Gardner had a great first half and I am fully aware that Miller won the Mariano Rivera Award for the best relief pitcher in the American League but young and controllable starting pitching is hard to find. That’s what Cashman is banking on when he dangled Ivan Nova’s name out there in trade rumors, who would actually be interested in him though?

Nova himself had a down season in 2015 after missing much of 2014 with Tommy John surgery. We all know that command is the last component to come back after a UCL replacement surgery and we all know that the second year removed is always the true indicator of how well a pitcher will respond. Nova will be in his second year removed from the surgery in 2016 making him the ultimate buy low candidate for many teams. It also doesn’t hurt that Nova is relatively cheap, he shouldn’t make more than $6 million through arbitration, and it also doesn’t hurt that he’s under team control for not only the 2016 season but the 2017 season as well. Don’t be fooled into thinking that Nova alone is not going to bring back a haul for New York but in the right package, maybe a package with Gardner for example, a deal could be struck that benefits both sides in the long run.

You can obviously count out anyone in the AL East because it’s doubtful that Cashman trades within the division but there aren’t many other teams that you can 100% cross off the list at this point. The New York Mets come to mind as a team not interested in Nova but what about the Washington Nationals? They could use all of Gardner, Miller and Nova in 2016. Could a mega deal happen?


Rebuilding teams like the Phillies, Braves, Reds, Brewers, Rockies, Athletics and White Sox are unlikely to pursue Nova while teams currently re-tooling like the Padres, Cubs, Mariners, Rangers, Nationals, Twins, Pirates, and even the Dodgers would likely have varying degrees of interest. There will be no shortage of interest on Nova, the question will be whether the package the Yankees get back is worth it or not. One thing is for sure though, there’s no reason to simply give away the 28-year old Nova. 

16 comments:

  1. Good article Burch, however I think with the thought process that Hal has with not spending money and Nova being cheap he will stay around. Also there is too many question marks in this rotation and I don't see the elf unloading pitching right now.

    I also believe all the things the elf has said about everyone is available is just a smoke screen. He does this year in year out come winter time and it is to show the fan base, hey I will listen, however I didn't make any moves because the return wasn't what I expected. That's his out pitch all the time.

    I also disagree with you on them being aggressive. I don't see it as this is pretty much the roster they will head into the season with. The coupon clipper will not add money even though it can make the roster stronger and he isn't trading Gardner or Miller. I think there will be some wholesale changes but nothing major

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    1. Nova isn't exactly cheap though for what he is giving you. I know you don't like Bryan Mitchell but if Nova pitches like he did in 2015 (and he wont, it was his first year removed from TJS) then Mitchell can give you far more for much less than the $5-$6 million Nova is going to garner through arbitration.

      They can be aggressive, doesn't mean anything will come of it. Takes two to tango. Cashman has done the majority of his damage, good or bad, in the trade market. Can't help it if the other teams don't want to dance.

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    2. Cashman asks for the world and is unrealistic in what he wants in return. Im telling you Burch the man can't pull off a big trade

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    3. From the history of the Yankees and their trading players, it is more that the other teams that still think they are dealing with King George. They will ask for way too much thinking they will get it...when they don't realize it was the King giving away the Farm, not Cashman.
      Just last year we saw a deal go down the tubes because they wanted to much for their players.Then they turn around and make the trade to another team for lesser players than the Yankees would have given them.

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  2. Not saying you're wrong Hans but a lot of what Reed said is true. Many ask the world of the Yankee. Will ask for he Yankees top prospect for a guy and then take two organizational prospects when Cashman says no. Write it down, the Braves will not get a Luis Severino for Shelby Miller.

    Of course this isn't always the case, San Diego got a much better package from Boston than we would have offered with Mateo but we were also willing to eat the Gyorko contract so that counts for something.

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  3. I don't disagree with Reed, however I think it is safe to say that Gardner is a career 261 hitter that fades in the second half of the season, is fast yet doesn't steal bases at the rate he should, is not that good of a baserunner in general. Is an excellent defender that has an average arm at best and yes I still think is a punch and judy hitter. Levin please forgive me. What do you really think you are going to get for this guy? Not a front line starter. So in my opinion Cashman is probably asking way to much for him

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  4. No need for forgiving somebody because they have an opinion. I would like to know why you have such a low opinion of Gardner though. If you actually compare his stats to all of the other qualifying leftfielders, you're going to find Gardner solidly in the top 10 in every category. Avg., runs, hits, doubles, HR's, RBI's, SB's, on base, etc., etc. Factor in his above average defense, and you have yourself an above average player that you seem to enjoy tearing down. Is it simply because he was drafted and developed under Cashman's watch? I really would like to know. But, to answer your question, I think an above average player signed to a team friendly contract should easily be able to headline a deal for a solid #3 starter.

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  6. Levin it has nothing to do with his being drafted by the elf, or because he is from our farm system. It has to do with inability to do things that he should be good at. You all think he is a good bunter, I think he is a terrible bunter. He should be stealing bases left and right and he doesn't. He is an excellent defender I will give you that. He has a below average arm and you know I think he is a punch and judy hitter aka singles, doubles. His Hr power is a bi product of Yankee stadium and if you look at his totals you will see the splits tell us this. I also don't like the second half of the season drop-offs that have been occurring. As far as the top ten in LF categories, how many LF are there playing at one time 30. So being in the top 10 isn't anything special. Is he in the top 10 of all OF's? If he is then I'm impressed

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    1. No Hans. His stats compared to all outfielders put him around 30th. I don't believe I ever said he was a top 10 outfielder at any point in this ongoing discussion. Top 10 would be comparing him to players like Trout, Harper, McCutchen, and others. I am simply saying that he is an above average player that has trade value. I don't understand why that is so difficult for you to concede. I'm not saying he's going to headline a package for Kershaw.

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    3. No one can argue Gardner's splits home and away, you're right there Hans. No one is putting him on a pedestal and making him a Top 10 outfielder, not in his best season, but he is a usable asset on a team friendly contract. He's attractive to many clubs and probably more attractive as a center fielder.

      You can concede some offense for speed and defense in center field, even if he doesn't use it the way he should. If he was a left fielder only I think his value is much less than what it is as a left fielder who can play center field or right field.

      He'll always have a lower batting average because he strikes out too much. That's his game. In the days of sabermetrics though a K counts the same as a 400 foot fly out or a line drive.

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  7. Levin I don't think he is a bad player I don't just don't think he is what you think he is. Can he get us something positive in return I think the answer is yes.

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    1. Fair enough. The reason I'm a fan is because he's the best position player we have developed since Cano. Perhaps that clouds my judgement a little.

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    3. Nothing wrong with liking a player

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Sorry for the Capatcha... Blame the Russians :)