My apologies for kind of a long title to the thread but I
didn’t know how else to word it. The focus of this post will be to dissect the
package of five prospects the Los Angeles Dodgers gave up in the deal for Manny
Machado of the Baltimore Orioles and compare those prospects to the Yankees
prospects and try to find a similar deal. The deal is done for Machado and this
won’t change a thing, but I think it would be fun to look at an equivalent, or
as close as we can get to anyway, package that the Yankees would have had to
surrender if they were to have matched the deal for Machado.
The Dodgers surrendered 21-year old outfielder Yusniel Diaz,
22-year old infielder Rylan Bannon, 22-year old RHP Dean Kremer, 21-year old
RHP Zach Pop, and 26-year old second baseman Breyvic Valera. According to MLB
Pipeline Diaz was the 84th best prospect in all of Major League
Baseball and the team’s 4th best prospect overall. Meanwhile Bannon
was the team 27th best prospect while Kremer was ranked 28th
by MLB Pipeline here in 2018. Pop and Valera were not ranked previously. Before
we truly assess which Yankees prospects compare to these Dodgers prospects we
have to meet the young men that are now wearing various uniforms within the
Baltimore Orioles organization and minor league affiliates.
Diaz was the headliner of the deal and immediately becomes
the top prospect in the Orioles farm system. Diaz earned a grade of 55 across
the board with his hitting, speed, arm and defense tools according to scouts
while his power keeps him from being a true five-tool player. Diaz has played
center field throughout the majority of his minor league career, but many
scouts suggest that his future is in a corner outfield spot, namely right
field. At the time of the trade Diaz was hitting .314/.428/.477 with six home
runs, eight stolen bases and more walks than strikeouts at the Double-A level.
If I were to take a stab at a comparison prospect for the
Yankees I would have to go with Billy McKinney. I know many compared Diaz to
Estevan Florial, but I cannot make that leap of faith. Florial is the top
prospect in a much better Yankees farm system (6th overall by MLB Pipeline)
whereas Diaz was just the fourth best within the Dodgers organization (10th
overall in MLB according to MLB Pipeline). Also, Florial is ranked 37th
overall in baseball according to MLB.com while Diaz was just 84th.
McKinney is more MLB-ready than either man and was ranked as the Yankees 16th
best prospect overall in a very top-heavy system. To be honest I would be
willing to swap out Florial for comparisons purposes over McKinney, but I stand
by my thought process that McKinney is a closer comparison to Diaz than Florial
at this point in their young careers.
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Bannon profiles as a defensive third baseman at the Major
League level that could have enough of a bat to keep him on a major league
roster. At the time of the trade Bannon was batting .296/.402/.559 in Double-A
but comes with a troubling strikeout total at the plate. Bannon does walk a lot
though which is evident by his 14.6% walk rate, which is sometimes enough in
the era of sabermetrics. Bannon was the 250th pick overall in the
2017 MLB First Year Players Draft for the Dodgers and in my opinion would
closely compare to the Yankees Dermis Garcia. Garcia is listed as a third
baseman and a first baseman by MLB Pipeline and is currently residing in
Charleston with the Riverdogs.
Kremer was the Dodgers 28th best prospect right
behind Bannon according to MLB Pipeline and heads into Baltimore with a 94 MPH
fastball with horizontal movement, a curveball and a developing slider and
changeup. Kremer had issues in the past but has enjoyed a breakout 2018 season
of sorts posting a 3.30 ERA and a 12.99 K/9 ratio in High-A Rancho Cucamonga
this season. Many scouts believe that he will be able to stick as a starter
with his recent success which warranted him a promotion to Double-A with the
trade. Kremer reminds me a lot of a RHP the team took in the 2017 MLB First
Year Players Draft who also recently reached Double-A, Garrett Whitlock.
Whitlock is the Yankees 26th best prospect according to MLB Pipeline
and seems to be on the fast track after being drafted a little over a calendar
year ago.
Pop profiles more as a reliever at the Major League level
due to a low strikeout rate throughout his minor league career. Despite having
a 7.67 K/9 ratio with the Dodgers he has managed to post a 0.33 ERA in 27
innings at High-A in 2018. Pop has been lucky, his BABIP and 95% strand rate
suggests that, but he also commands a sinker that can hit 97 MPH that shows at
least a bit of upside. The Yankees have another arm that may profile as a
reliever if he were to reach the Major League level that I believe is
comparable to Pop, his name is Giovanny Gallegos. Gallegos probably ranks a lot
higher than Pop, Gallegos is on the Yankees 40-man roster and is their 19th
best prospect in the farm system but is unlikely to stick with the MLB any time
soon with many top-level arms ahead of him on the depth chart. If the team could
move him now while clearing a 40-man roster spot for Machado in the process I
think it truly makes sense for both clubs.
The final piece, Valera, is a journeyman who has spent seven
years in the minor leagues with the St. Louis Cardinals alone before coming
over to the Dodgers. While in St. Louis, Valera made his MLB debut with the
team spanning 11 plate appearances before being traded to Los Angeles for Johan
Mieses. Valera made 34 plate appearances with Los Angeles this season amassing
just five hits while striking out and walking four times each. Valera is an
MLB-ready infielder that compares a lot to Tyler Wade, although again like the
instance with Gallegos I believe the Yankees would actually be overpaying with
Wade over what the Dodgers sent to the Orioles in this deal.
It is worth mentioning that Valera was immediately assigned
to Triple-A after the deal was made official while the remaining four prospects
were all assigned to the Orioles Double-A affiliate. Keeping that in mind the
closest I could come up with for a comparison package for the Yankees would be Billy
McKinney, Garrett Whitlock, Dermis Garcia, Giovanny Gallegos, and Tyler Wade.
Would I make this deal for a true rental in Machado?
Honestly, I probably would, but that goes against everything I have ever done
in my prospect humping career. Although, it is the greediest thing the Yankees
could have done, to date, this hot stove season. I’m torn, but if Baltimore
asked for that package for Machado and I were the Yankees GM, well Machado
would be wearing pinstripes and Alex Rodriguez’s #13 tonight. Oh well, water
under the bridge.