I have to admit, and a bit of an ICYMI here, when I read
Bryan Van Dusen’s bold predictions for the 2018 season here on the blog I
immediately thought about potentially doing a similar post of my own. When I
read the article and then the subsequent comments about how Bryan was “high on
shoe polish” or whatever the exact terminology was I, for one, laughed because
who says that? And two, I then decided I wanted to do one of my own, so I could
see what kind of “your trade proposal sucks” comments I could get myself. So
here we go, my bold predictions for the 2018 season.
As it has been stated basically everywhere on the Yankees
blogosphere and on Twitter, the New York Yankees need either a second baseman
or a third baseman. The free agent market is dry and/or too expensive for the
Yankees blood as they try to remain under the $197 million luxury tax threshold
(according to reports the team is sitting at $178 million after the CC Sabathia
signing that could pay him an additional $2 million leaving the total payroll
for the Yankees at $180 million) so it looks like the only realistic option for
the Yankees going forward is the trade market. Enter Ninja Cashman, as Bryan
Van Dusen and many others call him.
While I like a deal that could potentially add Michael
Fulmer to the stable of young Yankees pitchers I feel like the Tigers don’t
have a reason to HAVE to trade him, thus making him really expensive. Fulmer
could easily bridge the gap during the Tigers rebuild and would have immense
value for the team going forward, plus I would rather get this whole infield
situation rectified first before I add a sixth starting pitcher anyway. With
that said I can see Brian Cashman calling up his old buddy Theo Epstein in
Chicago and swinging a deal with him. Who would the Yankees be acquiring? Both
Javier Baez and Ian Happ are young, cheap, controllable, versatile and could
conceivably be grabbed if the Yankees sweeten the pot enough. The Cubs need
bullpen help, especially in the closing department, and the Yankees have a few
options including Dellin Betances and David Robertson. Giving up one of these
two pitchers, preferably Robertson because of salary, and a prospect that is
MLB ready or close or two like Billy McKinney or Jake Cave and a Domingo
Acevedo (basically anyone but Clint Frazier or Estevan Florial at this point)
could likely get one of these two infielders in the fold for New York.
Yes, I am well aware that the Cubs are high on Happ and I am
also aware that the team plans on having Happ play center field as soon as next
season, but one must also consider the fact that the Cubs still have Albert
Amora Jr. waiting in the wings, Jason Heyward on the books and Bryce Harper in
their line of site for the 2019 season. Happ played five different positions in
2017 while hitting 24 home runs at just age 23. Yes, Happ strikes out a lot.
Aaron Judge does too and so does Giancarlo Stanton. In the era of sabermetrics
and advanced metrics though a strikeout counts almost the same as a 400 foot
fly out to center field inside Yankee Stadium, you can deal with those. Plus,
Happ is left-handed which would be a great compliment to the aforementioned
Stanton and Judge who are both right-handed along with fellow slugger Gary Sanchez.
Happ plays second and the Yankees stopgap at third base
until Gleyber Torres is ready and his service calendar is delayed a season, the
infield is set. The bench is set with Tyler Wade, Austin Romine or Alex Avila
(remember we saved money by trading away David Robertson), Clint Frazier and
Tyler Austin. I know what you’re asking, where is Jacoby Ellsbury? I am also
eating his salary, up to about two-thirds of his salary, and I am also sending
him to the San Francisco Giants but not along with Jordan Montgomery. That, I
have to agree with “little p” patrick, is crazy talk. We are eating the salary,
or we are sending a good prospect or MLB-proven player, not both. Bryan,
himself, showed us that Ellsbury can still be useful and valuable so I don’t
see a need in sending a proven player along with him. If the Giants want
another player or two that most of us probably have never heard of, fine. Sweeten
the pot and take the chance, but you don’t give them Montgomery and you don’t
give them anyone who has a chance of making the team during the 2018 season in
my opinion. Maybe send a couple of those fringe players that the team was
unsure of adding to the 40-man roster for Rule 5 Draft protection, the who is
not as important as the fact that Ellsbury and at least all but $7-10 million
of his salary annually is gone while Frazier is still on the team.
The Yankees have plenty of arms to survive the loss of
Robertson and to survive the season until either Chance Adams or Justus
Sheffield or ready, or until the July 31st trading deadline arrives.
Whichever comes first. If a need arises before-hand then you adjust just like
any other team filling the slot with Chad Green or Adam Warren who are both
coming to camp as starting pitchers, although likely to end up in the bullpen
when all is said and done, and Opening Day is upon us. With the luxury tax
threshold a real thing and the plan to get under it finally coming to fruition
for the Yankees the time to “get greedy” has come and passed. The team has to
be smart and they need to assess what is a want, like a sixth starting pitcher,
and what is a need, an infielder and maybe a bullpen arm if my trade happens.
So what exactly is my boldest prediction of all? In a world
where every wants the Yankees to go crazy, get greedy and acquire someone like
a Michael Fulmer, Gerrit Cole or Patrick Corbin I am just sitting here expecting
the five pitchers currently on the roster to be the starting five on Opening
Day. Save some money and some ammo, i.e. prospects, for the trade deadline and
get more for your buck. I expect, and boldly predict, the Yankees heavy lifting
to be done aside from an infielder. Here’s to hoping Ian Happ or bust in the
Bronx.
What are your bold predictions for the 2018 season?